Surprising Early Voting Trend

BamaFan1137

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2001
2,554
3,960
113
It’s over. You lost. You fought the good fight, but Trumps incompetence is too much to overcome.
Not sure who will be eating it but crow will be had...at some point, by some on this board.

Does January crow taste the same as November crow?
 
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IrishPokerDog

Bull Gator
Apr 7, 2007
11,973
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You can google my first point. I’m to lazy to go digging through articles.

I consider Trafalgar and Rasmussen outliers, but I don’t dismiss them out of hand. I include them in the general basket of polls as a sanity check against other polls that show Biden winning in a landslide.

And claims about Trafalgar superior accuracy are exaggerated. They deserve credit for getting the “Blue Wall” right in 2016, while others overlooked them. But aside from that big break, they haven’t been as accurate as the Trump faithful seem to believe. Rassmusen was way off in 2018.

Contrary to popular belief, 538 wasn’t that far off in 2016. They were actually one of the few to recognize that Trump’s chances were better than the national polls suggested due to his supporters being heavily concentrated in key swing states.

Personally, I prefer outlets like 538 and RCP since they average multiple pollsters, reducing the influence of outliers without ignoring them entirely.
Uninformed ReRe obviously wasn’t informed that the polls were all wrong in 2016, and his purported “outliers” were the most correct.....

stay uninformed ReRe, being actually informed might be scary to libs
 

IrishPokerDog

Bull Gator
Apr 7, 2007
11,973
2,933
113
Ohio I think it’s a given. The real issue is that Trump has to win either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania to be president provided he holds onto North Carolina. I do not worry about Texas Florida or Georgia or Arizona at this time. Maybe I’m being foolish.
this is precisely how I see it as well - except I don’t think AZ is a given
 

nail1988

Bull Gator
Jan 14, 2004
5,267
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gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,041
113
Meh. I’m sure you’re not just picking the ones favorable to Trump. I’ll let you dorks argue over which polls are the best.

Wake me up on Nov 3. That’s the only poll that matters.
At least you finally admit it. Most Dems think the polls that matter are the CNN/NYT polls in late September. That and the popular vote.
 

nail1988

Bull Gator
Jan 14, 2004
5,267
8,134
113
Oh boy... certain individual on the board won’t like this 🤭😎

Trump Takes The Lead In Pennsylvania; +3 Per New Poll



Donald Trump: 48.4%

Joe Biden: 45.5 %

Jo Jorgensen: 3 %

Undecided: 3 %

The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”
 
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gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
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Oh boy... certain individual on the board won’t like this 🤭😎

Trump Takes The Lead In Pennsylvania; +3 Per New Poll



Donald Trump: 48.4%

Joe Biden: 45.5 %

Jo Jorgensen: 3 %

Undecided: 3 %

The same poll had Biden in the lead less than two weeks ago. Why? InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery explained why things have moved in Trump’s favor:

“These results indicate a stark shift in the contest. Our last survey of Pennsylvania showed Joe Biden leading Trump by three points. But that survey was before the last debate. Since the debate Trump has picked up support from younger voters, who based on our prior survey strongly oppose future lockdowns over Covid-19 spikes. Trump has also bolstered his lead among male voters by some twelve points. Biden continues to hold a seven point advantage over Trump among female voters. It would be nothing more than mere conjecture to attempt to correlate Biden’s statements on energy and fracking in the last debate contest with the shift towards Trump in this survey. However, Trump saw gains even among senior voters which have not been his strong suit this election cycle. That suggest that some issue or set of events has caused a late shift in the contest.”
BALLGAME

lol

if true

Getting ready for a few posters in here just in case............. @BSC911 @LizardGrad89 @JIMBO1313 @Uniformed_ReRe

 

BSC911

Bull Gator
Apr 18, 2018
5,003
1,323
113
At least you finally admit it. Most Dems think the polls that matter are the CNN/NYT polls in late September. That and the popular vote.
Finally? I’ve always said polls are like Vegas odds, they give an indication of who might win but you still have to play the game.

Notice it’s all the Trumpers now posting the polls, after saying they don’t mean anything. No integrity.
 

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,994
50,041
113
Finally? I’ve always said polls are like Vegas odds, they give an indication of who might win but you still have to play the game.

Notice it’s all the Trumpers now posting the polls, after saying they don’t mean anything. No integrity.
Do you know what the word integrity means?

The only polls I have looked at since 2016 are Trafalger b/c they predicted 2016 and 2018 better than the rest. Will see how they do this time.
 

nail1988

Bull Gator
Jan 14, 2004
5,267
8,134
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MAGA is up far more than this in Texas ( but the fools who thought Texas is in play ) #Fakepolls #Fakenews


 
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BSC911

Bull Gator
Apr 18, 2018
5,003
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Do you know what the word integrity means?

The only polls I have looked at since 2016 are Trafalger b/c they predicted 2016 and 2018 better than the rest. Will see how they do this time.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure I do.

The quality of being honest and having strong moral principles. These guys don’t even believe half the stuff they post. At least I hope not.

I don’t really care about any polls. I know America is not dumb enough to re-elect this clown.
 

jfegaly

Swamp Thing
Feb 1, 2006
913
1,835
93
Yeah, I’m pretty sure I do.

The quality of being honest and having strong moral principles. These guys don’t even believe half the stuff they post. At least I hope not.


I don’t really care about any polls. I know America is not dumb enough to re-elect this clown.
Wrong! It means, if you are supposed to be watching the fries cook, then watch the damn fries and get off your phone. Someone is paying you good money to make decent fries.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,428
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Where Trump goes Sunday and Monday will tell you a lot about where the closest states are according to their polling.

Hiden's schedule is set: He will be visiting The Bed every day till Election Day.
 
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Ncgatr1

Swamp Thing
Gold Member
Jun 18, 2012
934
1,681
93
The Dems have mastered the art of self imposed stupidity. They are always the last ones in the room that gets the joke, and than it has to be told to them.
 

BamaFan1137

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2001
2,554
3,960
113
Finally? I’ve always said polls are like Vegas odds, they give an indication of who might win but you still have to play the game.

Notice it’s all the Trumpers now posting the polls, after saying they don’t mean anything. No integrity.
Haha, you've claimed that this election was over several times. What were you basing that on??? Tea leaves?

You like polls when they say what you want to hear....just like everyone else.