Surprising Early Voting Trend

nail1988

Bull Gator
Jan 14, 2004
5,245
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Oh my

Sunny, Rush tells me Trump hit 46% Job approval with blacks today in state run Rasmussen

Rasmussen also tells me Trump pulling away in Florida

Florida: Trump 49%, Biden 46%

 
Oct 1, 2012
15,326
16,232
113
Oh my

Sunny, Rush tells me Trump hit 46% Job approval with blacks today in state run Rasmussen

Rasmussen also tells me Trump pulling away in Florida

Florida: Trump 49%, Biden 46%

Florida looks to be in the bag. Looks like double-digit win for Donald The Great.
 

Sunburnt Indian

Gator Great
Nov 7, 2001
3,215
6,229
113
WBAP tells me Texas continues to shatter records in early voting. Texas needs evil Big Oil. What could Beijing Biden been thinking? Biden just upped the vote count for Trump in Montana, the Dakotas and Wyoming.

Gov. A'bott' says Ohio is pretty big in energy along with Pennsylvania.
 

Uniformed_ReRe

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2011
2,891
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Parts Unknown
Most of you seem remarkably confident that Trump will win, possibly in and landslide. But polls overwhelmingly indicate that he is unlikely to win. Even actual GOP campaign staffers and strategists are admitting that things look grim for Trump.

Selectively ignoring polls, aside for the ones that are well known for their Trump bias, is silly cult like behavior.

Yes, Trump surprised everyone in 2016. Do you think that pollsters are incapable of learning from that and improving their methods? Do you think that you possess superior knowledge and insight than most of the actual professionals in field?

I’m genuinely curious what will happened to the hardcore Trump believers on November 3rd. Are you mentally prepared for the possibility that Trump will lose? Because most data indicates that he is likely to lose. Are you going to be able cope with this?
 

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,941
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Most of you seem remarkably confident that Trump will win, possibly in and landslide. But polls overwhelmingly indicate that he is unlikely to win. Even actual GOP campaign staffers and strategists are admitting that things look grim for Trump.

Selectively ignoring polls, aside for the ones that are well known for their Trump bias, is silly cult like behavior.

Yes, Trump surprised everyone in 2016. Do you think that pollsters are incapable of learning from that and improving their methods? Do you think that you possess superior knowledge and insight than most of the actual professionals in field?

I’m genuinely curious what will happened to the hardcore Trump believers on November 3rd. Are you mentally prepared for the possibility that Trump will lose? Because most data indicates that he is likely to lose. Are you going to be able cope with this?
Well we will see. I would love for you to reference the reference the GOP insiders you’re talking about.

I’m never confident about anything nor am I overly worried about anything. No matter who wins I’ll still make more money than 95% of the country.

But I do find it humorous that you referenced the national polls and referred to the Trafalgar group as a conservative slanted poll when they were the only one that got it right and 16 and 18.
 
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JIMBO1313

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Dec 13, 2012
13,331
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Jacksonville, Fl.
Ohio I think it’s a given. The real issue is that Trump has to win either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania to be president provided he holds onto North Carolina. I do not worry about Texas Florida or Georgia or Arizona at this time. Maybe I’m being foolish.
I like you when you are foolish, lol.......jim
 

Sunburnt Indian

Gator Great
Nov 7, 2001
3,215
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Polls are regularly used for voter suppression.

Trafalgar nailed it in 2016 and was closet. They predict Trump in an Electoral landslide.

Trump shows at rallies nation wide and is greeted by thousands. Biden is greeted by dozens.

Am I nervous? You bet I am. The U. S. national average IQ is 98.
 
Oct 1, 2012
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Most of you seem remarkably confident that Trump will win, possibly in and landslide. But polls overwhelmingly indicate that he is unlikely to win. Even actual GOP campaign staffers and strategists are admitting that things look grim for Trump.
We don't listen to polls. See this is the difference between most republicans and most democrats:

Most republicans go with the sources that tell them the truth.

Most democrats go with the sources that tell them what they want to hear.

And I have no idea where you are getting your information from, but I haven't heard anyone associated with the Trump campaign say anything about being in trouble, They all see the same landslide that all informed voters do.

@Uniformed_ReRe you keep going back to this 'you guys think you will win in a landslide' stance as if you can't believe it. That's because you are getting your information from sources that are telling you what you want to hear.

Clarify this: Are your information sources for the 2020 election the same or different from the ones you used in the 2016 election?

I bet they are pretty much the same, right? But all those sources GOT IT SPECTACULARLY WRONG in 2016.

Yet you are still listening to them in 2020. See you want to hear what they are saying.

Trump wins in a landslide. I don't care how you will handle that.
 

JIMBO1313

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Dec 13, 2012
13,331
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Jacksonville, Fl.
We don't listen to polls. See this is the difference between most republicans and most democrats:

Most republicans go with the sources that tell them the truth.

Most democrats go with the sources that tell them what they want to hear.

And I have no idea where you are getting your information from, but I haven't heard anyone associated with the Trump campaign say anything about being in trouble, They all see the same landslide that all informed voters do.
Ghost I am beginning to believe you are a paid member of the rump team. If not you should be with your blind faith in a man with no character.
 
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Uniformed_ReRe

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2011
2,891
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Well we will see. I would love for you to reference the reference the GOP insiders you’re talking about.

I’m never confident about anything nor am I overly worried about anything. No matter who wins I’ll still make more money than 98% of the country.

But I do find it humorous that you referenced the national polls and referred to the Trafalgar group as a conservative slanted pole when they were the only one that got it right and 16 and 18.
You can google my first point. I’m to lazy to go digging through articles.

I consider Trafalgar and Rasmussen outliers, but I don’t dismiss them out of hand. I include them in the general basket of polls as a sanity check against other polls that show Biden winning in a landslide.

And claims about Trafalgar superior accuracy are exaggerated. They deserve credit for getting the “Blue Wall” right in 2016, while others overlooked them. But aside from that big break, they haven’t been as accurate as the Trump faithful seem to believe. Rassmusen was way off in 2018.

Contrary to popular belief, 538 wasn’t that far off in 2016. They were actually one of the few to recognize that Trump’s chances were better than the national polls suggested due to his supporters being heavily concentrated in key swing states.

Personally, I prefer outlets like 538 and RCP since they average multiple pollsters, reducing the influence of outliers without ignoring them entirely.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,326
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You can google my first point. I’m to lazy to go digging through articles.

I consider Trafalgar and Rasmussen outliers, but I don’t dismiss them out of hand. I include them in the general basket of polls as a sanity check against other polls that show Biden winning in a landslide.

And claims about Trafalgar superior accuracy are exaggerated. They deserve credit for getting the “Blue Wall” right in 2016, while others overlooked them. But aside from that big break, they haven’t been as accurate as the Trump faithful seem to believe. Rassmusen was way off in 2018.

Contrary to popular belief, 538 wasn’t that far off in 2016. They were actually one of the few to recognize that Trump’s chances were better than the national polls suggested due to his supporters being heavily concentrated in key swing states.

Personally, I prefer outlets like 538 and RCP since they average multiple pollsters, reducing the influence of outliers without ignoring them entirely.
All dems will forever love 538 cause they called 2012. They have been horrible since, but dems overlook that cause....538 tells them Trump will lose bigly every 4 years, and that's what they want to hear.
 
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Uniformed_ReRe

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2011
2,891
800
113
Parts Unknown
We don't listen to polls. See this is the difference between most republicans and most democrats:

Most republicans go with the sources that tell them the truth.

Most democrats go with the sources that tell them what they want to hear.

And I have no idea where you are getting your information from, but I haven't heard anyone associated with the Trump campaign say anything about being in trouble, They all see the same landslide that all informed voters do.

@Uniformed_ReRe you keep going back to this 'you guys think you will win in a landslide' stance as if you can't believe it. That's because you are getting your information from sources that are telling you what you want to hear.

Clarify this: Are your information sources for the 2020 election the same or different from the ones you used in the 2016 election?

I bet they are pretty much the same, right? But all those sources GOT IT SPECTACULARLY WRONG in 2016.

Yet you are still listening to them in 2020. See you want to hear what they are saying.

Trump wins in a landslide. I don't care how you will handle that.
To be fair, it’s possible that you are right and the polls are wrong.

In about a week, we’ll find out which of us live in a bubble.
 
Oct 1, 2012
15,326
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To be fair, it’s possible that you are right and the polls are wrong.

In about a week, we’ll find out which of us live in a bubble.

They post numbers from every Trump rally.

For every rally, 20-25% of attendees did NOT vote in 2016.

15-30% of attendees are registered democrats.

I don't go on commentary, I go on facts. Anyone paying attention to Trump's rally numbers and the Mail-In and Early-Voting numbers is seeing the same thing I am.
 

JIMBO1313

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Dec 13, 2012
13,331
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85
Jacksonville, Fl.
nail, you don't have to feel sorry for me, I did all I could and if it turns out you are correct so be it. There are a lot of things that could be happening with the currency that are going to be much worse than 4 more years of Trump. I have been retired for 28 years and have seen a lot in my life time and I have very few regrets. All the best to you I have enjoyed the sparring over the past couple of weeks. I just hope the Democratic leadership have learned a lesson after the last two elections, regardless of how this one ends up. Starting after the election search for the brightest candidate available, do the best vetting job possible and then start grooming him/her for the '24 elections. Send them out to every important meeting, make them give as many high level speeches he/she can. Try to be sure they don't make any dumb mistakes. Then and only then this person might have a chance. Failing this, I can see more of the same in the future. Sorry for the rambling.
 

gator1776

Bull Gator
Gold Member
Jan 19, 2011
32,941
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nail, you don't have to feel sorry for me, I did all I could and if it turns out you are correct so be it. There are a lot of things that could be happening with the currency that are going to be much worse than 4 more years of Trump. I have been retired for 28 years and have seen a lot in my life time and I have very few regrets. All the best to you I have enjoyed the sparring over the past couple of weeks. I just hope the Democratic leadership have learned a lesson after the last two elections, regardless of how this one ends up. Starting after the election search for the brightest candidate available, do the best vetting job possible and then start grooming him/her for the '24 elections. Send them out to every important meeting, make them give as many high level speeches he/she can. Try to be sure they don't make any dumb mistakes. Then and only then this person might have a chance. Failing this, I can see more of the same in the future. Sorry for the rambling.
Love him, hate him, one things for sure, Jimbos a true American. Love you my man.
 
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BamaFan1137

Rowdy Reptile
Nov 5, 2001
2,529
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Most of you seem remarkably confident that Trump will win, possibly in and landslide. But polls overwhelmingly indicate that he is unlikely to win. Even actual GOP campaign staffers and strategists are admitting that things look grim for Trump.

Selectively ignoring polls, aside for the ones that are well known for their Trump bias, is silly cult like behavior.

Yes, Trump surprised everyone in 2016. Do you think that pollsters are incapable of learning from that and improving their methods? Do you think that you possess superior knowledge and insight than most of the actual professionals in field?

I’m genuinely curious what will happened to the hardcore Trump believers on November 3rd. Are you mentally prepared for the possibility that Trump will lose? Because most data indicates that he is likely to lose. Are you going to be able cope with this?
I will cope just fine. I'm guessing I will cope much better than most Dems managed in 2016. I certainly won't be rage screaming on random street corners.

Maybe the polling is better in 2020. I certainly never thought Trump would win in 2016. However, and I'm no polling expert, the same mistakes seem to be apparent in the 2020 polls with oversampling, not accounting for "shy" Trump voters and low Dem turnout.

I believe Biden is a horrible candidate that will not inspire high turnout for the left. In fact I believe the hatred of Trump will inspire much more turnout for the left than Biden will.