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Biden Solves High Gas Prices

I stated in the post that you responded to that it wasn't a significant jump.

But since you started it...

It jumped $8.67/bbl by months end. 😂
Yep. Do you know why? Do you think it took them that long to figure out that Biden was president?
 
Yep. Do you know why? Do you think it took them that long to figure out that Biden was president?

Did I claim that it did or did I blame Biden?

His initial stance on drilling did not help, however (see my link above). Luckily that didn't last long and we're drill baby drilling.
 
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Do you know why?

To answer this question, and I am BY NO MEANS an expert or even a novice on O&G, but I would guess that inventories were high and then they wanned or even became lean.

I do know that the Saudis were screwing with the Russians at one point during Trump's tenure and by extension, the US frackers...making it impossible for them to turn a profit by flooding the market.

All of this said, to say that oil futures can't be affected by an emotional response (like Biden getting elected after his promises to go after oil before the election) is pure poppy-cock...if you'll pardon my language. 😁

Long-term agree, inventories are the key driver. In the near-term, fear and emotion plays a role.
 
Huh? As usual your post makes no sense. The pandemic only started two years ago. And now are you saying Biden is causing the increase in drilling?

This must be why you weren’t accepted into Mensa. . “I got don’t. “
We may be in part getting somewhere. The majority of us well understand my posts make no sense to you. You're catching on. Congratulations. nail and Ghost fully understand.

I have never applied for acceptance to Mensa. It would make no sense for me whatsoever. I have engaged in some Mensa test sessions for my own gratification. I have introduced some questions on these pages designed to measure one's ability to reason, all of which are completely beyond your reach.

In a nutshell. I know some oil and gas business men. To a man, they tell me Trump is friendly to O&G. To a man, they tell me Biden is unfriendly to O&G. On more than one occasion, Stewart Varney of Fox Business has told me we were energy independent when Trump left office. No longer. I have no reason to question any of these men. Today finds all area Cefco regular at $3.09. Election Day saw $1.74.
 
We may be in part getting somewhere. The majority of us well understand my posts make no sense to you. You're catching on. Congratulations. nail and Ghost fully understand.

I have never applied for acceptance to Mensa. It would make no sense for me whatsoever. I have engaged in some Mensa test sessions for my own gratification. I have introduced some questions on these pages designed to measure one's ability to reason, all of which are completely beyond your reach.

In a nutshell. I know some oil and gas business men. To a man, they tell me Trump is friendly to O&G. To a man, they tell me Biden is unfriendly to O&G. On more than one occasion, Stewart Varney of Fox Business has told me we were energy independent when Trump left office. No longer. I have no reason to question any of these men. Today finds all area Cefco regular at $3.09. Election Day saw $1.74.
Maybe the Pantshitter in Chief can help our energy needs by harnessing the methane from his Depends. :mad:
 
We may be in part getting somewhere. The majority of us well understand my posts make no sense to you. You're catching on. Congratulations. nail and Ghost fully understand.

I have never applied for acceptance to Mensa. It would make no sense for me whatsoever. I have engaged in some Mensa test sessions for my own gratification. I have introduced some questions on these pages designed to measure one's ability to reason, all of which are completely beyond your reach.

In a nutshell. I know some oil and gas business men. To a man, they tell me Trump is friendly to O&G. To a man, they tell me Biden is unfriendly to O&G. On more than one occasion, Stewart Varney of Fox Business has told me we were energy independent when Trump left office. No longer. I have no reason to question any of these men. Today finds all area Cefco regular at $3.09. Election Day saw $1.74.
LOL. I get such a kick out of you. You’re like the guy at the bar who tells everyone he could have been a pro ball player, but decided to drive a truck instead. Nope. You’re either a big liar or have just self deluded yourself into thinking you passed a Mensa test 50 years ago, when really it was just some quiz. Sorry dude, Mensa tests don’t ask about colors or days of the month. I knew you were a fraud from the first day you started bringing up that nonsense.

And it’s obvious that you knew nothing about the oil and gas business either when you started to bring up Keystone and Biden banning drilling and energy independence.as the the reason for rising gasoline prices. You read things in your bubble that make you feel good, but aren’t intellectually curious enough to understand it. While congrats on “”knowing some oil and gas men” it’s obvious that you don’t want to learn. I and others have tried to explain it to you, but you just aren’t capable of understanding. That’s how I knew you are no Mensa candidate. Sorry to burst your bubble.

If you really want to stop sounding so so stupid on the subject, I’ll be glad to teach you. All you have to do is ask. 😎
 
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To answer this question, and I am BY NO MEANS an expert or even a novice on O&G, but I would guess that inventories were high and then they wanned or even became lean.

I do know that the Saudis were screwing with the Russians at one point during Trump's tenure and by extension, the US frackers...making it impossible for them to turn a profit by flooding the market.

All of this said, to say that oil futures can't be affected by an emotional response (like Biden getting elected after his promises to go after oil before the election) is pure poppy-cock...if you'll pardon my language. 😁

Long-term agree, inventories are the key driver. In the near-term, fear and emotion plays a role.
Pretty good response. OPEC clearly was concerned about the rise in US production from shale drilling, thus increased their own production to drive down prices and make many of these wells uneconomical. A bigger driver today is Wall Street, who were tired of oil companies spending all their money on drilling new wells without returning any money to the shareholders. Free cash flow is now the objective, not increasing production , and any company that can’t live within its cash flows is severely punished.

Does Biden’s anti fossil fuel rhetoric have some impact? Negligible. This is highlighted by the energy sector being the strongest performing sector in 2021. Oil is priced on the world market based on supply and demand factors, none of which Biden controls. .
 
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Your first paragraph is mostly correct. However, when the market is in a contango position, futures prices are actually higher than the current front-month price, thereby creating incentives to store oil instead of selling it. Oil traders with big balls and deep pockets will even try to engage in arbitrage by chartering oil tankers for floating storage. This is generally indicative of a falling demand / oversupplied market, which is not where we are today.

Here's an interesting article that was recently published in the WSJ that sheds light on the reluctance of domestic oil producers to quickly ramp up production.


Overall, I'll simply say that the Biden administration is no friend to the oil and gas industry, but is not the primary culprit to blame for current high oil prices. Frankly, there's plenty of other things they can be blamed for that justify not re-electing this clown show for another term.
Looks like more good times ahead for you guys.

US Cracking Update​

Op rates improve but still muted in Oct’21, ethane share remains elevated at 80% and likely to rise further in coming months​

Sector: Chemicals | Ticker: XLB | Recommendation: NR | Target: NA | Close: $83.99 | Market Cap: NA | Analyst: Matthew Blair​

Data from Advisian yesterday showed US cracker op rates inched up to 86% in Oct’21 vs 84% in Sep and 81% a year ago. Despite the increase, op rates are only at 84% for YTD’21 (vs 87% in 2020) due to lower runs earlier in the year stemming from the Uri freeze. Ethane feedstock share clocked in at 80% in Oct, down a bit from 81% in Sep. YTD ethane share is holding at 80%, the same as last year, although a big jump up from 61% in 2016 due to new ethane-only crackers and attractive ethane economics. Propane share climbed to 10% in Oct vs 9% in Sep, and is now 9% YTD, slightly down from 10% in 2020 and well off 24% in 2016. Looking forward, we expect to see further gains in ethane share with the recent start-ups of 1.8mmt XOM-SABIC and 1.0mmt Bayport crackers, as well as the upcoming 1.5mmt SHEL plant.
 
Looks like more good times ahead for you guys.

US Cracking Update​

Op rates improve but still muted in Oct’21, ethane share remains elevated at 80% and likely to rise further in coming months​

Sector: Chemicals | Ticker: XLB | Recommendation: NR | Target: NA | Close: $83.99 | Market Cap: NA | Analyst: Matthew Blair​

Data from Advisian yesterday showed US cracker op rates inched up to 86% in Oct’21 vs 84% in Sep and 81% a year ago. Despite the increase, op rates are only at 84% for YTD’21 (vs 87% in 2020) due to lower runs earlier in the year stemming from the Uri freeze. Ethane feedstock share clocked in at 80% in Oct, down a bit from 81% in Sep. YTD ethane share is holding at 80%, the same as last year, although a big jump up from 61% in 2016 due to new ethane-only crackers and attractive ethane economics. Propane share climbed to 10% in Oct vs 9% in Sep, and is now 9% YTD, slightly down from 10% in 2020 and well off 24% in 2016. Looking forward, we expect to see further gains in ethane share with the recent start-ups of 1.8mmt XOM-SABIC and 1.0mmt Bayport crackers, as well as the upcoming 1.5mmt SHEL plant.
Thanks, but I'm in downstream oil refining, not the Ethane / Petrochemicals sector. We had a lackluster January but the next few months are looking pretty good.
 
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LETS GO BRANDON!! But your stupid people that vote for you( ALL 55 million of them) believe you did not cause this!! LOLOL
 


LETS GO BRANDON!! But your stupid people that vote for you( ALL 55 million of them) believe you did not cause this!! LOLOL
Chaching!
 
🤬🤬🤬

Brandon’s Economic Adviser Bernstein: Increasing U.S. Oil Production Isn’t Part of Biden’s Gas Price Plan, But We’ll Get Other Countries to Produce​




How would Biden increase production?

From your article.

“We’re seeing very high profitability in these oil companies, lots of stock share buybacks.”

Thats what I’ve been telling you guys. Buy some oil stocks and you won’t care about a few cents at the pump.
 
It sucks having Trumpers in the Republican Party. The Party of the free market.

They claim they hate communism. Then they want Biden to stick his nose in the oil and gas sector to reduce gasoline prices. Just like Venezuela and China does.
 
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It sucks having Trumpers in the Republican Party. The Party of the free market.

They claim they hate communism. Then they want Biden to stick his nose in the oil and gas sector to reduce gasoline prices. Just like Venezuela and China does.

I'm no Trumper but that's certainly not what I'm wanting the Biden administration to do.

Not being an obstacle to fossil fuels is a way this administration could go. Much like a saloon door, they have swung both ways on this.
 
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It sucks having Trumpers in the Republican Party. The Party of the free market.

They claim they hate communism. Then they want Biden to stick his nose in the oil and gas sector to reduce gasoline prices. Just like Venezuela and China does.
Clearly this is all Trump's fault. And his supporters.

None of this is on Hiden. As his 29% approval rating proves. Right, @CFAGator?
 
Some factoids I learned at a presentation I attended.

1. Oil prices are pretty close to their 15 year average on an inflation adjusted basis, and we’ll below the peak in 2008
2. Gasoline represents only 2.5% of the average persons annual expenditure.
3. Demand increases and inventory shortages will get worse unless oil gets to $125/bbl.

Better start stocking up.
 
My Cefco dropped a penny today to $3.08. I shopped HEB Super. With what I spent at HEB, adjusting for Brandon's inflationary tidal wave, Cefco will be giving gasoline away.
 
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A gassy hiccup I'm guessing.

My gas dropped from 3.49 to 3.42 for a day, then jumped right back up to 3.49 the next day.

Glad I filled up on the drop day, saved me enough for coffee and a donut....
🙄
 
Some factoids I learned at a presentation I attended.

1. Oil prices are pretty close to their 15 year average on an inflation adjusted basis, and we’ll below the peak in 2008
2. Gasoline represents only 2.5% of the average persons annual expenditure.
3. Demand increases and inventory shortages will get worse unless oil gets to $125/bbl.

Better start stocking up.
BSC911,

Why is $125/bbl a magic number ?

When you stock up on oil products where do you store it - refrigerator or freezer ?

Biden's sell off of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve was a great political maneuver; some of his cherished supporters made enormous amounts of money & the price of gas at the pump dropped a few cents for a few days; it has now gone back up & we no longer have a strategic reserve.
 
BSC911,

Why is $125/bbl a magic number ?

When you stock up on oil products where do you store it - refrigerator or freezer ?

Biden's sell off of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve was a great political maneuver; some of his cherished supporters made enormous amounts of money & the price of gas at the pump dropped a few cents for a few days; it has now gone back up & we no longer have a strategic reserve.
We sold about 30 million barrels I believe, which have to be replaced by the buyers within the next year or two, and we still have 587 million barrels left currently. You can track the inventory here https://www.spr.doe.gov/dir/dir.html
 
BSC911,

Why is $125/bbl a magic number ?

When you stock up on oil products where do you store it - refrigerator or freezer ?

Biden's sell off of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve was a great political maneuver; some of his cherished supporters made enormous amounts of money & the price of gas at the pump dropped a few cents for a few days; it has now gone back up & we no longer have a strategic reserve.
$125 seems to be the pain point where people start conserving, buying smaller, more fuel efficient autos, and otherwise changing their consumption behaviors.

By stocking up, I mean buying oilfield stocks.

We still have an SPR, not that we really need it any more.
 
BSC911,

Why is $125/bbl a magic number ?

When you stock up on oil products where do you store it - refrigerator or freezer ?

Biden's sell off of the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve was a great political maneuver; some of his cherished supporters made enormous amounts of money & the price of gas at the pump dropped a few cents for a few days; it has now gone back up & we no longer have a strategic reserve.
One bank’s view


Key Takeaway. Based on our analysis, we believe approximately $130/bbl oil and $4.50/gal retail gasoline would represent price levels potentially threatening to positive demand trends. We base this on our analysis of prior price levels of gasoline and oil relative to average hourly wages converted to purchasing power equivalency. We applied this analysis across prior periods of low and high prices and examined resulting demand responses. Our goal is not to make an explicit oil or gasoline price forecast. We are not implying consumers are immune to the recent rise in retail gasoline prices. However, we believe it is necessary to delineate how much higher oil and retail gasoline prices might rise before a demand response would appear imminent. The reality is despite the highest nominal oil prices in seven-plus years, the "real" price appears well below levels historically associated with a negative demand response. Keep rolling!
 
I just talked to a San Antonio oil and gas buddy. I hope I wrote this down right. Brandon is trying to fix the mess he created. He's begging the Saudis to turn on the spigots. Brandon is claiming his administration has upped the rig count by 80% since Inauguration Day. Maybe so since he did so much to shut it. Rig count doesn't mean much for production. Ever heard of dry holes or wells?

2019 saw 803 producing oil and gas wells . 2019 produced 12.29 bbl of oil per day. 2020, 11.28 bbl per day with 350 rigs producing oil. We were energy independent. 2021, 11.18 bbl per day.

Today we buy Russian and Saudi oil. Brandon is not friendly to the O & G industry.
 
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