Sorry for the delayed response. I wanted to articulate my thoughts before posting them. You’re right, we cannot make a totally informed decisions with absolute certainty, and that does suck. We have to make a probabilistic decision based on the available evidence. I will leave the medical concerns you have to those that are more qualified to answer them than me, but as far as my view on some of the things under “do not know” list, I will offer my thoughts (I put your thoughts in italics).
The mechanism these vaccines use has been researched since 1993 and has been in trials since 2003. To my knowledge no drug, treatment or vaccine has ever rec'd formal approval. Why?
Perfectly logical. I asked a friend of mine who is a rheumatologist. He mentioned the technologies we have now are so far superior that testing and validating processes can occur much faster nowadays. And if I am not mistaken, Pfizer (and Moderna?) are about to receive full approval. In my opinion, that so many
billions of people have had the vaccine, if there was a problem (like you said), we would know.
We have no good tracking of adverse effects
It could certainly be better, I agree. But we do have tracking of positive effects of the vaccine and negative effects of the virus. Most hospital data and scientific literature support this. As such, we do have data that can be used to make decisions.
We don't know if there are any long-term effects
True. But the vaccine is usually out of your system fairly quickly and if there are going to be adverse side effects, they will usually present within 30 days. Again, given how many people have received the vaccination (more than 30 days ago), if there were a big problem, then it would present itself by now.
The ability for the vaccinated to infect others has been a bit of moving target, reducing the community benefit argument a bit.
I do agree that the vaccinated people being able to spread COVID sucks, but they are still showing a lot less severity because, while the virus can remain on surface level mucus membranes in the throat of vaccinated persons, it doesn’t a) typically remain there as long and b) is much less likely to spread through the bloodstream and cause disease. To me, those are huge factors. Getting vaccinated is not going to perfectly solve all our problems, but there are mountains of evidence that it does mitigate the damage.
ADE so far hasn't been identified, but even the CDC hasn't closed the book on the possibility (although I think we'd know by now).
This is concerning to me as well. Research in
Swiss Medical Weekly (Negro, 2020) found that ADE cannot be dismissed as being relevant to COVID (
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2020.20249). However, a study in the
Journal of Virology found that ADE can be mediated (Wan et al., 2020) as it relates to COVID (
https://journals.asm.org/doi/epub/10.1128/JVI.02015-19). Hopefully, ADE isn’t going to be a huge problem. I think this is worth monitoring and more personal research.
Mandates
I could not agree more. I have long been critical of the government’s messaging regarding COVID. A totalitarian approach is simply ineffective at best and counterproductive at worst. In my own research, I have found what I call
The Freedom Factor to be a strong motivation against vaccination. In psychology, this is generally known as
psychological reactance. Governmental intrusion into our individual liberties is always a serious concern. In my view, however, this is a separate argument. Taking the vaccine to improve my odds of remaining healthy against COVID is a freedom I have, and I choose to exercise that freedom independent of what the government may mandate. That my decision aligns with their mandate is immaterial. I exercised my freedoms. I got the shot because it was my choice and not their mandate. And I fully respect the rights of others to make a different decision.
My two cents:
There are always considerations for both sides of a position. These considerations are driven by the strength of the supporting evidence. How strong we evaluate each item of evidence is the subjective and personal aspect of decision-making. In my view, an approach that is logical to properly weigh the evidence
as it relates to your personal situation (which is an idiosyncratic variable unique to you and you alone) is to evaluate the evidence across three key domains: proximity, intensity, and conditional probability.
So, as it relates to you, you could consider how proximal, or how close, is COVID to you, how intense (bad) is COVID, and what is the probability that you catch it? The combination of these three ideas is what I meant in an earlier post when I used the term
imminent probabilities (this is a term I made up).
The imminent probabilities can be calculated if you have the data:
- For the proximal value, has COVID reached your community? Your family? Or even you?
- For the intensity value, what are your underlying health conditions (age, weight, diabetes, etc.) that may intensify the impact of COVID on your health?
- For the probability value, you simply calculate the conditional probability that you will catch COVID given its proximity to you, or your likelihood of encountering the virus (do you travel?).
If you’re not recent on your statistics and probabilities, there are online calculators you can use to punch numbers in (such as
https://byjus.com/conditional-probability-calculator/). A straightforward approach is to use a conditional probability formula that a quick Google search can get you up to speed on that.
You would then repeat this process of risks associated with the vaccine. Compare the probabilities and you will have an empirical tool to help you make your decision. And since the accuracy of calculations are highly dependent on the validity of data applied, I used only primary data sources (peer-reviewed scientific papers and statistics from valid sources).
In my situation, the proximity of catching COVID was a huge factor. I personally know people who have contracted COVID (my neighbor, a teacher) and who have died (a former law enforcement colleague). The teacher neighbor was vaccinated and was not hospitalized. My former colleague was not vaccinated. Another former client of mine (an attorney, not vaccinated) contracted COVID and was hospitalized for over two weeks and described it as being pure hell. He was not vaccinated and experienced painful blood clots (on top of the hellish COVID symptoms). I have many more examples, and each follow the same likely outcomes – the unvaccinated are having much worse COVID related outcomes than those with the vaccines. When I calculated the probabilities as they pertain to me, I simply could not ignore the issue. Am I worried about vaccine side effects? Yes. Just not nearly as much as I am worried about the immediate and known effects of COVID.
Being skeptical about any of the numbers is perfectly fair. I just don’t think any of us can rationally say that COVID doesn’t exist or isn’t threatening to some level. And while people tend to focus on the error terms (mistakes) in reported numbers, it is considerably less logical to rely on Twitter, tabloids, and clearly unreliable sources (versus scientific studies). All in all, we are just balancing the evidence the best we can.