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GDP grew at a 6.9% pace to close out 2021, stronger than expected

We have 4 liquor stores in town, all state run.

They are all out of Tito’s, Knob Creek and Woodford. The last two supply trucks were cancelled. This weekend I had to drive 45 mins away to Martinsburg WV to buy Vodka. We had been out for over a week.

We’ve had massive shortages of lettuce, bread, milk and eggs at local grocery stores for months.

Something isn’t right.
I'm prepping a China Spring duplex for new tenants. For the first time, I cannot get Project Source mini blinds at Lowe's. I need 4 sets and Lowe's told me today they can't order till May or June. Substitute Home Depot has empty 1" mini blind shelves and can't accept orders at this time.

Tomorrow I'll tell management they may have to rent a duplex with 4 damaged blinds.
 
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...inds-Americans-gloomy-state-nation-Biden.html


CFA The % of people that agree with you on the economy is roughly the % of people that have a favorable opinion of Senile Joe. Congrats.
So far crickets on the jobs report I just posted…I’m not an economist but I don’t get how a surging economy sheds jobs.

I’m hearing we are going from a goods based economy under Covid restrictions to a service based now that we’re opening up…wouldn’t that be net net positive for employment?
 
So far crickets on the jobs report I just posted…I’m not an economist but I don’t get how a surging economy sheds jobs.

I’m hearing we are going from a goods based economy under Covid restrictions to a service based now that we’re opening up…wouldn’t that be net net positive for employment?
It's almost like turning off the economy in 2020 is having lingering affects years later.

Huh.
 
I assume that businesses have come to the conclusion that the era of quantitative easing is over. Monetary policy will tighten, interest rates will rise, etc.

It’s also likely that businesses are adapting to the tight labor market by figuring out how to get more done with less.

Between the massive QE, huge tax cuts, followed by pandemic that shut down the economy, followed by more QE and stimulus, I think the economy is sort of like Hunter Biden, after doing a few lines of coke, then ODing on Xanax, then going into cardiac arrest, then his hooker stabs him the heart with a hypodermic needle and injects adrenaline like Pulp Fiction, followed by snorting a handful of crushed Wellbutrins and washing it down with a fifth of Glennfiddich and a Cuban cigar. Now, he needs to sleep it off.
 
So far crickets on the jobs report I just posted…I’m not an economist but I don’t get how a surging economy sheds jobs.

I’m hearing we are going from a goods based economy under Covid restrictions to a service based now that we’re opening up…wouldn’t that be net net positive for employment?

Because it was already mentioned and commented on earlier in the day in this same thread.

Love the short memories around here. Last month when ADP showed a gain of 800k, everyone spent all day arguing that it wasn't the "real employment report". As I mentioned several times last month, ADP has wild swings from month to month, so you should use the 3 month average (+324k) for a more accurate view of the employment environment.

ADP average is probably still a little high, versus BLS which is about 200k/month recently. BLS will definitely be a bad number on Friday, close to zero or possibly negative, which everyone not trying to make a political argument will just ignore, particularly the Fed and the stock market.

The right will jump on Friday's BLS report as an example of Biden destroying the economy, while the left will jump on next month's report when we see a huge snapback from January's omicron effect. Neither side will use multi-moth averages like they should.
 


  • Productivity rose at an annualized rate of 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, the government said Thursday.
  • That trounced the median estimate of a 3.2% jump from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • The report shows output-per-hour surging as economic growth similarly accelerated into 2022.
 
Because it was already mentioned and commented on earlier in the day in this same thread.
It's the first net job loss, or probably will be, since 12/2020. That's significant. We should be coming out of the pandemic, not setting records by now.

You can spin all the multi month average talk you want, it's not good. If it continues we're in deep crap, and could signal stagflation is coming.

There was a grocery store chain owner on a DC radio station this morning on my way in...they are seeing weekly cost increases and massive shortages. They can't get enough supply and when it's available the supply chain isn't able to move it efficiently. He predicted, unless this pivots quickly, another 10-20% increase in food prices for 2022.

Fuel prices are back in the rise, the job market *could* be softening, you have both supply chain issues and supply shortages and the Feds are almost certain to raise rates multiple times.

I don't see the rosy outlook here.

Personally my company cannot find labor. We've got a 200M new facility we finished last year that's constantly running at less than 50% due to staffing shortages. We're losing more employees each month than we're hiring. Every time we shut our extrusion lines down we are bleeding cash, and it takes significant resources to bring them back on line. Sheetz, a chain gas station, is starting employees at $15/hr full benefits, $22/hour for asst managers. They're so desperate for help they are handing out flyers to customers.

Cite any stat you want, but I can't buy vodka, whiskey or eggs and milk many trips to the grocery store, my company can't find employees and it costs $90 to fill up my truck. Things are not looking great right now for me personally. I'd guess I'm not alone.
 
So far crickets on the jobs report I just posted…I’m not an economist but I don’t get how a surging economy sheds jobs.

I’m hearing we are going from a goods based economy under Covid restrictions to a service based now that we’re opening up…wouldn’t that be net net positive for employment?
Uhhhh, this little thing called Omicron. You may have heard of it.

Tis merely a flesh wound though. Its actually healthy to take a brief respite from the economic boom we are experiencing.

Funny how you only focus on the negative reports though. Very telling.
 
If you really believe there was an overall job loss in January, and it's not a measurement quirk due to omicron peaking in mid-January when these are measured, then I don't know what to tell you. Just get ready for all the jobs miraculously added by Biden in February, when neither are really the case.
 


  • Productivity rose at an annualized rate of 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, the government said Thursday.
  • That trounced the median estimate of a 3.2% jump from economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
  • The report shows output-per-hour surging as economic growth similarly accelerated into 2022.
Some strong inflation warnings in that article...and they're hedging on how real the growth number is...

To be sure, quarterly productivity data can be highly volatile, and pandemic-era business practices have added to the choppiness. The shift to innovations like QR code menus and telework helped boost productivity during lockdowns, but shifts back to pre-pandemic practices likely muddied quarterly readings.

If productivity doesn't keep up with wages, which one would expect it to not double expectations every quarter, we're going to see inflation. I do not see wages coming down anytime soon. Do you?
 
If you really believe there was an overall job loss in January, and it's not a measurement quirk due to omicron peaking in mid-January when these are measured, then I don't know what to tell you. Just get ready for all the jobs miraculously added by Biden in February, when neither are really the case.
You literally just posted an article about strong productivity growth that cited shifts in business practices making it hard to accurately measure productivity.
 
It's the first net job loss, or probably will be, since 12/2020. That's significant. We should be coming out of the pandemic, not setting records by now.

You can spin all the multi month average talk you want, it's not good. If it continues we're in deep crap, and could signal stagflation is coming.

There was a grocery store chain owner on a DC radio station this morning on my way in...they are seeing weekly cost increases and massive shortages. They can't get enough supply and when it's available the supply chain isn't able to move it efficiently. He predicted, unless this pivots quickly, another 10-20% increase in food prices for 2022.

Fuel prices are back in the rise, the job market *could* be softening, you have both supply chain issues and supply shortages and the Feds are almost certain to raise rates multiple times.

I don't see the rosy outlook here.

Personally my company cannot find labor. We've got a 200M new facility we finished last year that's constantly running at less than 50% due to staffing shortages. We're losing more employees each month than we're hiring. Every time we shut our extrusion lines down we are bleeding cash, and it takes significant resources to bring them back on line. Sheetz, a chain gas station, is starting employees at $15/hr full benefits, $22/hour for asst managers. They're so desperate for help they are handing out flyers to customers.

Cite any stat you want, but I can't buy vodka, whiskey or eggs and milk many trips to the grocery store, my company can't find employees and it costs $90 to fill up my truck. Things are not looking great right now for me personally. I'd guess I'm not alone.
1. You need to cut down on the vodka and whiskey anyway since you seem to drunk post a lot (plus I call BS on shortages).
2. Eggs are bad for your cholesterol, which is probably high. (also not in short supply)
3. Pay your employees more and you’ll find workers. That’s why people are quitting their jobs. Also vaccinate So they aren’t spreading the virus and taking off work.
4. Buy an EV if you can’t afford the gas. Although I love gas guzzlers.

Most importantly, what do you expect Biden to do about it?
 
You literally just posted an article about strong productivity growth that cited shifts in business practices making it hard to accurately measure productivity.
Two completely different things. With employment measurement, if you were home sick during the second week of January, and weren't getting paid sick leave, you were counted as having lost your job in January, even if you went right back to work the following week.

That's why we'll see a big jump in February job gains, and why everyone is ignoring tomorrow's employment report
 
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1. You need to cut down on the vodka and whiskey anyway since you seem to drunk post a lot (plus I call BS on shortages).
2. Eggs are bad for your cholesterol, which is probably high. (also not in short supply)
3. Pay your employees more and you’ll find workers. That’s why people are quitting their jobs. Also vaccinate So they aren’t spreading the virus and taking off work.
4. Buy an EV if you can’t afford the gas. Although I love gas guzzlers.

Most importantly, what do you expect Biden to do about it?
1) Thanks for the advice. Can you please point out some of my drunk posts?
2) I have two teenage boys that are both athletes, the eggs are for them. They both eat eggs almost everyday. I eat about 3 eggs a year at home. And my cholesterol is fine, thanks again for your concern.
3) We are starting trainees to operate extrusion lines at $22/hr full benefits, full match day 1. 2 years ago we were paying $17/hr with a 6 month wait on benefits and were at full staffing levels. Most of our plant employees drive from another, much lower cost of living state. But with overtime (some mandatory) can get these guys and gals really close to $60k/year with a HS education.
4) I’m cheapskate when it comes to cars. As a former mechanic (in grad school) I appreciate the ability to do basic maintenance on my vehicles. High voltage doesn’t sound like a party to me. And forcing me to buy a $40k+ EV because the President is terrible at his job doesn’t seem like an equitable solution to me.

Want me to hold up a newspaper with pics of my liquor and grocery store? Or does this work?



 
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You literally just posted an article about strong productivity growth that cited shifts in business practices making it hard to accurately measure productivity.
Strong productivity gains in 2021 vs the year prior.

You know, when the economy was off.

Only the dems we have here would be so dishonest to try to use a pandemic-induced lockdown to try to claim the economy under a dem president* is now doing great by comparison.
 
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ADP is reporting January employment #s as negative. Loss 300,000 jobs.
They've already spun that. At some point in the future, the economy will gain jobs again, so this report doesn't count.

Again, how are we losing jobs if the economy is doing so great?
 
Strong productivity gains in 2021 vs the year prior.

You know, when the economy was off.

Only the dems we have here would be so dishonest to try to use a pandemic-induced lockdown to try to claim the economy under a dem president* is now doing great by comparison.
Productivity is just output of goods and services compared to labor hours. Has nothing to do with comparison to previous years. It's showing that the economy is running at a more efficient rate per worker hour. It's what I've pointed out to you several times, but you keep ignoring, that the economic growth has been impressive given that we're producing a record amount, with over three million less employees.

This is historically the most efficient economy we've had (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB). Has nothing to do with Biden, except that because he is President most of you guys will dispute every single positive economic data point.

As employment continues to grow this year, and GDP growth slows, labor productivity will absolutely fall from these levels, at which point you guys will start believing in the economic data again (except inflation data when that declines later this year, you of course won't believe it).
 
It's the first net job loss, or probably will be, since 12/2020. That's significant. We should be coming out of the pandemic, not setting records by now.

You can spin all the multi month average talk you want, it's not good. If it continues we're in deep crap, and could signal stagflation is coming.

There was a grocery store chain owner on a DC radio station this morning on my way in...they are seeing weekly cost increases and massive shortages. They can't get enough supply and when it's available the supply chain isn't able to move it efficiently. He predicted, unless this pivots quickly, another 10-20% increase in food prices for 2022.

Fuel prices are back in the rise, the job market *could* be softening, you have both supply chain issues and supply shortages and the Feds are almost certain to raise rates multiple times.

I don't see the rosy outlook here.

Personally my company cannot find labor. We've got a 200M new facility we finished last year that's constantly running at less than 50% due to staffing shortages. We're losing more employees each month than we're hiring. Every time we shut our extrusion lines down we are bleeding cash, and it takes significant resources to bring them back on line. Sheetz, a chain gas station, is starting employees at $15/hr full benefits, $22/hour for asst managers. They're so desperate for help they are handing out flyers to customers.

Cite any stat you want, but I can't buy vodka, whiskey or eggs and milk many trips to the grocery store, my company can't find employees and it costs $90 to fill up my truck. Things are not looking great right now for me personally. I'd guess I'm not alone.
My brand new Atwood's has yet to open. October was planned. They will try to open in March. Atwood says they can't staff nor STOCK it.

My brand new huge AMAZON structure has yet to open and plans to hire 1000. No word from AMAZON when they plan to open. Completion was about 3 months ago.
 
Productivity is just output of goods and services compared to labor hours. Has nothing to do with comparison to previous years. It's showing that the economy is running at a more efficient rate per worker hour. It's what I've pointed out to you several times, but you keep ignoring, that the economic growth has been impressive given that we're producing a record amount, with over three million less employees.

This is historically the most efficient economy we've had (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB). Has nothing to do with Biden, except that because he is President most of you guys will dispute every single positive economic data point.

As employment continues to grow this year, and GDP growth slows, labor productivity will absolutely fall from these levels, at which point you guys will start believing in the economic data again (except inflation data when that declines later this year, you of course won't believe it).
More appropriately: As employment continues to recover from a pandemic.
 
My brand new Atwood's has yet to open. October was planned. They will try to open in March. Atwood says they can't staff nor STOCK it.

My brand new huge AMAZON structure has yet to open and plans to hire 1000. No word from AMAZON when they plan to open. Completion was about 3 months ago.
I'm just getting real tired of people pissing on me and telling me it's raining.

We're having third world problems in one of the richest countries in the world in many parts of the country.

We spent $4T on Covid relief. That's more money than it took to build the entire interstate highway system.
 
Something else happened that was historic in regards to the economy in 2020.

Anyone remember what it was?
Productivity was much higher in 2020 than in 2019. You're not understanding the comparison, this isn't an economic measurement that fell in 2020 and then we're seeing a rebound in 2021.

Most would have predicted that productivity would have fallen in 2021 as 6.4 million jobs came back online last year, but it actually increased, which is pretty remarkable.
 
This is historically the most efficient economy we've had (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB). Has nothing to do with Biden, except that because he is President most of you guys will dispute every single positive economic data point.
Holy crap you don't get it.

I don't want the economy to be bad. I hate Biden and I think he's totally unqualified to be President, but the economy affects me personally as much as anything he touches.

But I'm paying attention to my own personal situation. You can cite labor efficiency stats and GDP numbers until you're blue in the face, but things are really effed up in day to day life in this region. If 2022 doesn't turn around on a dime for me, this will be the first year in a decade we won't bonus out. That's a massive part of my income, and I'm less than 18 months from my first going to college. We've been saving but that bonus really helps ease the burden.

So yea, I'm glad the numbers look great and you're so bullish. When I see employment make sense again and full shelves and normal lead times I'll start to buy in that the economy is really rocking. Until then they are not commensurate with my real world experience, so I don't know what to make of them.
 
I dont take the productivity increases as a positive.
Productivity improves as more jobs are automated . These jobs are never coming back. More jobs are automated as wages increase whether through minimum wage increases or businesses having to compete with the gov't paying people not to work. Another reason productivity remains high is the laziest dregs of society are sitting home collecting instead of doing as little as possible to get paid. The good workers are the ones returning to the workforce
 
Holy crap you don't get it.

I don't want the economy to be bad. I hate Biden and I think he's totally unqualified to be President, but the economy affects me personally as much as anything he touches.

But I'm paying attention to my own personal situation. You can cite labor efficiency stats and GDP numbers until you're blue in the face, but things are really effed up in day to day life in this region. If 2022 doesn't turn around on a dime for me, this will be the first year in a decade we won't bonus out. That's a massive part of my income, and I'm less than 18 months from my first going to college. We've been saving but that bonus really helps ease the burden.

So yea, I'm glad the numbers look great and you're so bullish. When I see employment make sense again and full shelves and normal lead times I'll start to buy in that the economy is really rocking. Until then they are not commensurate with my real world experience, so I don't know what to make of them.
I go through 1" mini blinds. Tenant's dogs. I can't get them. I use a little interior egg shell for some trim. I can't get it. This ain't good.
 
I dont take the productivity increases as a positive.
Productivity improves as more jobs are automated . These jobs are never coming back. More jobs are automated as wages increase whether through minimum wage increases or businesses having to compete with the gov't paying people not to work. Another reason productivity remains high is the laziest dregs of society are sitting home collecting instead of doing as little as possible to get paid. The good workers are the ones returning to the workforce
I agree with you, productivity usually increases as jobs are lost, like in 2020 as I said earlier. That's why seeing a jump in productivity in 2021 as 6.4 million jobs came back was unexpected.
 
I'm just getting real tired of people pissing on me and telling me it's raining.

We're having third world problems in one of the richest countries in the world in many parts of the country.

We spent $4T on Covid relief. That's more money than it took to build the entire interstate highway system.
Remember when obama tanked the economy almost as bad as Hiden has? Everyone was out of work, and he ran PSAs saying this was GREAT! Now we all had time to go take relaxing walks in the park, or to take up hobbies like drawing, and painting! Why dems told us everyone being out of work was the best thing that could have happened to us!

Sheep never questioned.
 
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I dont take the productivity increases as a positive.
Productivity improves as more jobs are automated . These jobs are never coming back. More jobs are automated as wages increase whether through minimum wage increases or businesses having to compete with the gov't paying people not to work. Another reason productivity remains high is the laziest dregs of society are sitting home collecting instead of doing as little as possible to get paid. The good workers are the ones returning to the workforce
Bingo. This guy understands basic economics. When you have limited resources, you only hire and employ the most PRODUCTIVE workers.

The fact that @CFAGator thinks this is unexpected good news is completely in line with all his other comments on the economy.
 
Holy crap you don't get it.

I don't want the economy to be bad. I hate Biden and I think he's totally unqualified to be President, but the economy affects me personally as much as anything he touches.
Bingo. That's the difference between the average dem and the rest of us. Dems are happy to screw themselves, if they think it makes they guy they hate look bad. And they assume everyone else is the same way.

If Hiden was doing great with the economy like Trump did, if he was pro-life, if he was strong on border security, if he put AMERICA FIRST, I would happily say he was doing a GREAT job as president, if he was.

But he isn't doing any of those things. I wish he was. But he's an embarrassment.
 
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Most would have predicted that productivity would have fallen in 2021 as 6.4 million jobs came back online last year, but it actually increased, which is pretty remarkable.
You might have expected that. Most of us know that being out of work for a year sucks. If someone was out of work for a year then had a chance to go back to work, they will typically be.....wait for it.....wait for it......more productive.

This wasn't remarkable, it was expected. At least by some of us.
 
You might have expected that. Most of us know that being out of work for a year sucks. If someone was out of work for a year then had a chance to go back to work, they will typically be.....wait for it.....wait for it......more productive.

This wasn't remarkable, it was expected. At least by some of us.
Quite the economist you are 😆. So then explain to me then why productivity fell 4.2% in Q4 2020 as 2 million net jobs were added during that quarter. These 2 million people would be among the first hired back, so under your theory they should have been the most productive since "the good workers are the ones returning to the workforce".
 
Quite the economist you are 😆. So then explain to me then why productivity fell 4.2% in Q4 2020 as 2 million net jobs were added during that quarter.
That's when delta was spreading like wildfire, right? Probably led to a lot of people getting sick and hourly productivity falling, right?

SMDH

This is why you keep stubbing your toe on this topic: Everyone else is just looking at what has happened and drawing conclusions.

Your stated goal here is to prove to republicans that Hiden hasn't turned us into a socialist nation, and to prove that Trump was no better on the economy than obama or Hiden.

I stopped trying to intelligently debate you on the economy when I realized that we both weren't up to the task.
 
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That's when delta was spreading like wildfire, right? Probably led to a lot of people getting sick and hourly productivity falling, right?

SMDH

This is why you keep stubbing your toe on this topic: Everyone else is just looking at what has happened and drawing conclusions.

Your stated goal here is to prove to republicans that Hiden hasn't turned us into a socialist nation, and to prove that Trump was no better on the economy than obama or Hiden.

I stopped trying to intelligently debate you on the economy when I realized that we both weren't up to the task.
Delta was spring/summer of 2021.
 
1) Thanks for the advice. Can you please point out some of my drunk posts?
2) I have two teenage boys that are both athletes, the eggs are for them. They both eat eggs almost everyday. I eat about 3 eggs a year at home. And my cholesterol is fine, thanks again for your concern.
3) We are starting trainees to operate extrusion lines at $22/hr full benefits, full match day 1. 2 years ago we were paying $17/hr with a 6 month wait on benefits and were at full staffing levels. Most of our plant employees drive from another, much lower cost of living state. But with overtime (some mandatory) can get these guys and gals really close to $60k/year with a HS education.
4) I’m cheapskate when it comes to cars. As a former mechanic (in grad school) I appreciate the ability to do basic maintenance on my vehicles. High voltage doesn’t sound like a party to me. And forcing me to buy a $40k+ EV because the President is terrible at his job doesn’t seem like an equitable solution to me.

Want me to hold up a newspaper with pics of my liquor and grocery store? Or does this work?



Well I’ve got plenty so hit me up.

And you still haven’t explained why Biden is to blame. Do want him to control private enterprise as well as the government. I believe that’s called socialism.
 
I dont take the productivity increases as a positive.
Productivity improves as more jobs are automated . These jobs are never coming back. More jobs are automated as wages increase whether through minimum wage increases or businesses having to compete with the gov't paying people not to work. Another reason productivity remains high is the laziest dregs of society are sitting home collecting instead of doing as little as possible to get paid. The good workers are the ones returning to the workforce
You cannot be serious. Labor productivity is bad? I guess you long for the days before computers and prefer we were still in an agrarian society.

The rest of your post is just right wing nonsense. I can tell you’ve never run a business. It figures Ghost liked your post.
 
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