GDP grew at a 6.9% pace to close out 2021, stronger than expected

[CFAGator]

The U.S. economy grew at a much better than expected pace to end 2021 though the acceleration likely tailed off as the omicron spread put a damper on hiring and further hindered the global supply chain.

Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced during the October-through-December period, increased at a 6.9% annualized pace, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 5.5%.

Real GDP growth (net of inflation) was 5.7% for 2021.

Nominal growth grew 14.3% in Q4 to $23.99 trillion.

GDP grew at a 6.9% pace to close out 2021, stronger than expected despite omicron spread

Gross domestic product accelerated at a 6.9% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, well ahead of the 5.5% estimate.

www.cnbc.com

 

[ghost_of_ukalum1988]

Thanks for sharing... This tells me that Build Back Better (promoted in large part to lift the economy) is not at all needed. The federal government is already spending enough money as it is, thank you.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

Grandma in East Cleveland who can't buy beef patties due to inflation is standing on her head and stacking greased bb's. That's an old, old saying which means one is tickled to death.

Seriously, grandma is not impressed with the "wonderful" news. Nor are the legions of minorities I know.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

The economy is doing great. Only a critical thinker would argue otherwise.

 

[NavigatorII]

 

[Orangeclad]

"Honey, I know you had a tough day and couldn't find half the stuff we needed at the grocery store and what you did find cost us way more than usual. And I know how bad it was to pay $60 to fill up our vehicle. But don't worry, CFAGator just let us know that the economy is growing faster than expected."

"Honey, don't get pissy about it. I wouldn't dare tell him that."

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

"Honey, I know you had a tough day and couldn't find half the stuff we needed at the grocery store and what you did find cost us way more than usual. And I know how bad it was to pay $60 to fill up our vehicle. But don't worry, CFAGator just let us know that the economy is growing faster than expected."

"Honey, don't get pissy about it. I wouldn't dare tell him that."

Hiden told us last weeks that all store shelves in America are fully stocked and no bare shelves anywhere. Added that if anyone says there are, they are a lyin dog-faced pony soldier.

I think @CFAGator actually believed him.

 

[CFAGator]

Hiden told us last weeks that all store shelves in America are fully stocked and no bare shelves anywhere. Added that if anyone says there are, they are a lyin dog-faced pony soldier.

I think @CFAGator actually believed him.

You obviously didn't watch it then. He said grocery stock levels are typically around 92%, and are currently around 89%. His point is that the issue is extremely exaggerated, which is obvious from this board. It's the only thing ever pointed to on this board for why the economy isn't doing well, despite the numerous economic data releases showing otherwise.

Are certain specific products like meat having supply issues leading to higher prices, absolutely, especially in certain parts of the country. But overall grocery stock levels are only down slightly from historical levels, despite what you guys want to believe and keep hearing from your preferred news sources.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

You obviously didn't watch it then. He said grocery stock levels are typically around 92%, and are currently around 89%. His point is that the issue is extremely exaggerated, which is obvious from this board. It's the only thing ever pointed to on this board for why the economy isn't doing well, despite the numerous economic data releases showing otherwise.

Are certain specific products like meat having supply issues leading to higher prices, absolutely, especially in certain parts of the country. But overall grocery stock levels are only down slightly from historical levels, despite what you guys want to believe and keep hearing from your preferred news sources.

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Watching you tote water for a dem prez with 30% approval at every opportunity is just adorable.

 

[CFAGator]

Watching you tote water for a dem prez with 30% approval at every opportunity is just adorable.

I figured your response, like all of your posts, would have zero real information or data.

 

[NavigatorII]

The financial markets are as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
How many more days of 5 to 10% intraday swings are we going to see from now on? 🤣

 

[CFAGator]

The financial markets are as nervous as a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.
How many more days of 5 to 10% intraday swings are we going to see from now on? 🤣

Agreed, Fed stimulus has been a major driver of stock market returns, under Biden just like under Trump and Obama. With the Fed likely to raise rates 3-4 times this year, and start reducing their balance sheet, the market will definitely see a lot of volatility this year, just like in 2018 when the market was down 4% (-14% in Q4 2018) when the Fed tightened, despite good GDP growth.

 

[Orangeclad]

It might be wise to look at ALL the polls and see the ones from ordinarily left leaning organizations and see how bad they are and look at the topics at the top of the lists that people are concerned about. Prices and product availability are at the top. Economic growth and GDP just ain't kitchen table issues.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Watching you tote water for a dem prez with 30% approval at every opportunity is just adorable.

I am embarrassed this guy brags about a UF education. He did NOT get an Education from UF...he got an indoctrination....and should demand a refund

 

[Capt Ron 1]

I figured your response, like all of your posts, would have zero real information or data.

There is SO much info that you are scared to address. For one...you are in the approx 15 percentile that think Brandon is doing great! Now you are either smarter than 85% of the people...or it works the other way. What would you lay your money on? I know how I would bet!

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Agreed, Fed stimulus has been a major driver of stock market returns, under Biden just like under Trump and Obama. With the Fed likely to raise rates 3-4 times this year, and start reducing their balance sheet, the market will definitely see a lot of volatility this year, just like in 2018 when the market was down 4% (-14% in Q4 2018) when the Fed tightened, despite good GDP growth.

You spelled INFLATION wrong, CFA.

 

[CFAGator]

It might be wise to look at ALL the polls and see the ones from ordinarily left leaning organizations and see how bad they are and look at the topics at the top of the lists that people are concerned about. Prices and product availability are at the top. Economic growth and GDP just ain't kitchen table issues.

That's probably correct. When people are happy with their employment and pay, availability of things to spend their money on tends to move up the list.

I don't know why you guys focus on poll numbers so much. Trump had terrible poll numbers, but still had good economic growth.

 

[nothergator]

You obviously didn't watch it then. He said grocery stock levels are typically around 92%, and are currently around 89%. His point is that the issue is extremely exaggerated, which is obvious from this board. It's the only thing ever pointed to on this board for why the economy isn't doing well, despite the numerous economic data releases showing otherwise.

Are certain specific products like meat having supply issues leading to higher prices, absolutely, especially in certain parts of the country. But overall grocery stock levels are only down slightly from historical levels, despite what you guys want to believe and keep hearing from your preferred news sources.

View embedded media

You are wasting your/our time with these charts, graphs and propaganda reports. Most of us go by what our eyes tell us.

 

[CFAGator]

You are wasting your/our time with these charts, graphs and propaganda reports. Most of us go by what our eyes tell us.

You're 100% correct, I'm definitely wasting my time trying to provide the board with actual information. It's obvious only memes and regurgitated misinformation that confirm their political beliefs are wanted here.

 

[NavigatorII]

You're 100% correct, I'm definitely wasting my time trying to provide the board with actual information. It's obvious only memes and regurgitated misinformation that confirm their political beliefs are wanted here.

Anecdotal evidence IS reality. You should try it sometime. Like I've said before, don't tell us it's raining when you pee on our legs. Try asking the question, are we better off now or back in 2019? 🤣

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

You are wasting your/our time with these charts, graphs and propaganda reports. Most of us go by what our eyes tell us.

His White Knighting for the guy that 70% of the country disapproves of is just precious.

This is like @Uniformed_ReRe claiming that man has the power to change the climate, then lamenting that ice is melting, and we can't stop it.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Anecdotal evidence IS reality. You should try it sometime. Like I've said before, don't tell us it's raining when you pee on our legs. Try asking the question, are we better off now or back in 2019? 🤣

He's already explained that; Economy growing much faster in 2021 than it did in 2019.

He never talks about what happened in 2020 to create that 'growth'.

 

[CFAGator]

He's already explained that; Economy growing much faster in 2021 than it did in 2019.

He never talks about what happened in 2020 to create that 'growth'.

Good lord we already hashed that out weeks ago, you love to post the same excuses over and over again and hope everyone forgets when you were proven wrong. It's not just about the growth from the previous year, it's about the current production rate.

2019 Q4 GDP $21.73t
2021 Q4 GDP $23.99t

And about me white knighting for Biden, please quote any post by me ever that gave Biden credit for the current economy.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Good lord we already hashed that out weeks ago, you love to post the same excuses over and over again and hope everyone forgets when you were proven wrong. It's not just about the growth from the previous year, it's about the current production rate.

2019 Q4 GDP $21.73t
2021 Q4 GDP $23.99t

And about me white knighting for Biden, please quote any post by me ever that gave Biden credit for the current economy.

See? It's like 2020 never happened.

Amazing productivity in 2021! What an economy! LMAO!

 

[CFAGator]

See? It's like 2020 never happened.

Amazing productivity in 2021! What an economy! LMAO!

It shows we're currently producing at a rate significantly ahead of prepandemic levels. You have to be trolling, no one is this dumb.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

It shows we're currently producing at a rate significantly ahead of prepandemic levels. You have to be trolling, no one is this dumb.

Oops. There's the elephant in the room. That sound is the air whizzing out of that 'great economy, great growth!' balloon of yours LMAO!

 

[CFAGator]

I give up. You're correct, the economy is terrible right now. I don't know how I ever questioned the rigorous economic analysis on this board.

 

[Orangeclad]

I give up. You're correct, the economy is terrible right now. I don't know how I ever questioned the rigorous economic analysis on this board.

Ok, the economy is great. Why don't you do some real world research and go to some grocery stores or gas stations and just ask ordinary people how they feel about the economy. Ask them if they are aware of rising gdp and does any of your good news about the economy make them feel better. So don't take our word for it.

 

[DCandtheUTBand]

Inflation Inflation Inflation...what is 24T in 2021 adjusted to 2019 dollars?

Hmmm I bet about 22T.

So we have broke even while losing purchasing power, have partially empty store shelves and out of control gas prices.

Anecdotal but my wife got double her usual raise. But she would have needed nearly triple to keep up with the governments claim of inflation rate. Those claims are understated.

Here where I live from 2019 to now gas is up 85%, milk 10% and some meats up 75%

 

[NavigatorII]

I give up. You're correct, the economy is terrible right now. I don't know how I ever questioned the rigorous economic analysis on this board.

You might also ask yourself how many more people have entered the work force since then (minors achieving working age status, college graduates, legal and illegal immigrants).
Something else that's not been considered. NOAA has been well known to "fudge" weather station data. Surely that couldn't be the case here? 🤣

 

[NavigatorII]

Just for shits and giggles, I just did a little confirmation bias research that we (most of us) understood already, but failed to quantify. (and that is impossible by it's very nature). I've already hinted before about the "misery index". Bear with me.

The common error of confusing growth with progress goes largely unnoticed, though it permeates all macroeconomic analysis. There is no better example of this mistake than the fallacies behind the interpretation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).​

GDP is the market value of all final goods and services in a given year. As such, it is only an accounting identity reflecting the quantity of money in the economy.

Econometricians constructing GDP have devised a sterile statistic that should not be used to set economic policy. It leads to the common error of assuming any increase in GDP is desirable. Statistics like GDP tell a story of an economy based on historical prices but devoid of any qualitative value; and progress, the improvement in the human condition, is what really matters.

Transactions reflecting both wealth creation and also economically destructive state spending are included in GDP without differentiation.

Well HELLOOOO! McFly!

The fallacies of GDP - Research - Goldmoney

The common error of confusing growth with progress goes largely unnoticed, though it permeates all macroeconomic analysis. There is no better example of this mistake than the fallacies behind the interpretation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is the market value of all final goods...

www.goldmoney.com

 

[fatman76]

You obviously didn't watch it then. He said grocery stock levels are typically around 92%, and are currently around 89%. His point is that the issue is extremely exaggerated, which is obvious from this board. It's the only thing ever pointed to on this board for why the economy isn't doing well, despite the numerous economic data releases showing otherwise.

Are certain specific products like meat having supply issues leading to higher prices, absolutely, especially in certain parts of the country. But overall grocery stock levels are only down slightly from historical levels, despite what you guys want to believe and keep hearing from your preferred news sources.

View embedded media

It's my own experience. Most days we can't buy lettuce, hamburger buns or steak. The bourbon aisle in the state run VA liquor stores is empty.

I don't know how the rest of the country is doing, but NoVA is not doing well at all.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

I give up. You're correct, the economy is terrible right now. I don't know how I ever questioned the rigorous economic analysis on this board.

You are the Paul Krugman of economic thinkers.

Bob and Jill get married. Jill stays at home and raises their 2 kids, Bob gets a job.

90% of his income goes to paying the bills, 10% goes into savings.

Bob's annual salary:

2016 - $100,000
2017 - $100,000
2018 - $100,000
2019 - $100,000

On December 31st, 2019, Bob gets laid off. He doesn't find a job till late the following year, one that starts on Jan 1st, 2021.

2020 - $0

His 2021 salary shoots up to $150,000 with his new job. Easily his best salary every.

So his annual salary is:

2016 - $100,000
2017 - $100,000
2018 - $100,000
2019 - $100,000
2020 - $0
2021 - $150,000

On December 31st, 2021, this conversation happens.

Bob "Honey, have you seen the checkbook? I just talked to Carl at Carl's Auto Sales and he said he could let me have that new BMW they got in last week for a song! So I'm gonna take that extra $50k I made this year and get it. Where's the checkbook?"

Jill "Babe what are you talking about? You know we have no money in the bank!"

Bob "WTF are YOU talking about??? I made $150k this year, my best year ever! How the hell are we broke????"

Jill "Because you were out of work last year and..."

Bob "Not this shit again?!?"

Jill "Ummmm....it's not shit, it's life babe. That 'extra' $50k you made this year is long gone, we had to spend it on the high interest rates on all our credit cards cause that's how we lived last year WHEN YOU MADE NOTHING!"

Bob "This is insane....I made my best salary ever in 2021! Our finances have never been better! Look at the numbers!"

Jill "Are you high right now? What part of YOU DID NOT WORK IN 2020 are you not getting???"

Bob starts sticking his button lip out and looking around "I know! I'll buy it with our savings! We have $40k in savings that I've put in there since 2016...."

Jill "Slick we blew through that money by March of 2020. You remember 2020....the year WHEN YOU DID NOT WORK!"


The fact that you apparently think the US economy simply 'resets' each year and each year's economy exists in it's own vacuum is almost as adorable as you White Knighting for the dem prez with 30% approval.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

You guys were constantly hyping GDP growth when Trump was president.

 

[CFAGator]

Inflation Inflation Inflation...what is 24T in 2021 adjusted to 2019 dollars?

Hmmm I bet about 22T.

So we have broke even while losing purchasing power, have partially empty store shelves and out of control gas prices.

Anecdotal but my wife got double her usual raise. But she would have needed nearly triple to keep up with the governments claim of inflation rate. Those claims are understated.

Here where I live from 2019 to now gas is up 85%, milk 10% and some meats up 75%

On an inflation adjusted basis, we're producing at a rate 3% higher than in Q4 2019. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1)

Your example of your wife getting double her normal raise is not uncommon. Most people look at the 4.7% wage growth this year and compare it to 7% inflation, completely ignoring that fact that inflation was lower than normal in 2020. On a two year basis, both wage growth and inflation are roughly equal, about 8% over the two years.

You guys use the rebound from 2020 as an excuse to ignore current GDP levels, but don't do the same with inflation.

Not to mention that costs of services are still not back to pre-pandemic levels. Everyone just focuses on what they see everyday as they drive (gas prices), or the handful of specific items they see repeated over and over on Fox News, primarily meat prices.

 

[Sunburnt Indian]

RNC grandson lives in DC. Grandson just got a $15,000 annual pay raise. RNC sited Brandon's inflation.

I didn't get a 7% raise in 2021 nor do I expect one in 2022. When most of us hyped GDP growth rates PRYOR TO THE PANDEMIC, inflation was of little worry.

 

[Orangeclad]

You guys were constantly hyping GDP growth when Trump was president.

Maybe, just maybe, GDP growth wasn't being drowned out by products you can' t find and the prices when you can. Over 50% of Americans today have a negative feeling about the economy. They don't give a flip about GDP.
I'd bet most people you stop on the street couldn't even tell you what the letters stand for, let alone what the definition is.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

You guys were constantly hyping GDP growth when Trump was president.

Oh go read The Civil Rights Act.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Maybe, just maybe, GDP growth wasn't being drowned out by products you can' t find and the prices when you can. Over 50% of Americans today have a negative feeling about the economy. They don't give a flip about GDP.
I'd bet most people you stop on the street couldn't even tell you what the letters stand for, let alone what the definition is.

Funny thing is I remember starting a thread about Trump's 33% GDP one quarter in 2020. I even said it was mostly cause the economy was reopening, but still an amazing number.

Dems like the ones ITT said that number was bullshit. Inflated by economy reopening and didn't matter.

Now fast forward a year and suddenly those same dems are in love with Hiden's 6% GDP a year after they turned the economy off LOL

If dems didn't have double standards, they'd have no standards at all...

 

[nothergator]

Inflation Inflation Inflation...what is 24T in 2021 adjusted to 2019 dollars?

Hmmm I bet about 22T.

So we have broke even while losing purchasing power, have partially empty store shelves and out of control gas prices.

Anecdotal but my wife got double her usual raise. But she would have needed nearly triple to keep up with the governments claim of inflation rate. Those claims are understated.

Here where I live from 2019 to now gas is up 85%, milk 10% and some meats up 75%

.I think these increase economic numbers mean the rich got richer and most of us stayed the same or got poorer.