If nolies can keep QB healthy I'm thinking 9/10 win category. ACC is tissue soft so technically they could TCU their way into playoffs. Norvell has done well in the portal but has sucked in the recruiting game. Football not like basketball yet, still need top notch recruiting to win it all. That could change soon.
Gators to Hire Ron Roberts as LB Coach, Co-Defensive Coordinator ?
- Thread starter Jeff from Jax
- Start date
He is the 1st of the 3-4 WR's to be taken in the 2024 class....
Slot WR Izaiah Williams 6-0 172 **** - Tampa, FL
Soph 2021 Season - 34 for 524 Yds, 15.4 Ave, 4 TD's
Jr 2022 - Injury shortened, 6 for 146 Yds, 24.3 Ave, 2 TD's
Laser timed 4.46/40 at an Under Armour All-America camp in early March, and he had a Soph Track 10.94 100-M
"He has shown reliable hands, burst off the line of scrimmage, the ability to create separation downfield due to his long speed with a willingness to bring down contested catches with passes outside his framework, and he has considerable wiggle when operating in the open field."
Can't teach natural speed, while BillyG can handle any needed improvements....
=====
As to Gator TE's in 2023, I'm looking for Odom to have a break-out season...
Slot WR Izaiah Williams 6-0 172 **** - Tampa, FL
Soph 2021 Season - 34 for 524 Yds, 15.4 Ave, 4 TD's
Jr 2022 - Injury shortened, 6 for 146 Yds, 24.3 Ave, 2 TD's
Laser timed 4.46/40 at an Under Armour All-America camp in early March, and he had a Soph Track 10.94 100-M
"He has shown reliable hands, burst off the line of scrimmage, the ability to create separation downfield due to his long speed with a willingness to bring down contested catches with passes outside his framework, and he has considerable wiggle when operating in the open field."
Can't teach natural speed, while BillyG can handle any needed improvements....
=====
As to Gator TE's in 2023, I'm looking for Odom to have a break-out season...
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RB Cam Carroll 6-0 228 4.42/40 Grad-Sr - 5.3 YPC 4 Yr Career at Tulane
---
RB Alton McCaskill 6-1 215 4.48/40 Jr ------ 5.1 YPC 2 Yr Career at Houston
ESPN 4-star - 247 3-star.
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Alton-McCaskill-RB-Houston
Both Carroll and McCaskill have been injured out for a season in their careers.
=====
RB Montrell Johnson 5-11 218 Jr -- 5.4 YPC at UF
RB Trevor Etienne 5-9 207 So ------ 6.1 YPC at UF
RB Treyaun Webb 5-11 205 **** Fr - 7.6 YPC in HS
---
RB Eddie Battle 6-2 211 5th Yr - WO
RB Carlson Joseph 5-11 201 rsSo - WO
-----
2024 #13 RB Chauncey Bowens 5-11 219 **** - 7.2 YPC -- 32 offers
2024 #28 RB/QB Kahnen Daniels 5-11 190 **** - 10.3 YPC RB & Wildcat QB
I see McCaskill as a very good depth/backup piece for the Gators, IF he commits.
While it's certainly possible he comes to UF, I see it as unlikely....
I agree partially. I'm interested to see with how open the portal has become, do more "portal teams" make it. Does it matter if 7 draft picks were from the recruiting class or from the portal? I don't think it does. I think elite high school recruiting stabilizes the program more than portal recruiting does but now a lot of those high schoolers transfer out. Keep in mind, we are now in yr 2 or 3 of the portal so we will see what that yields. I think it also matters WHO you get in the portal. Potential draft picks for us next yr are
Verse (1st rd)
Johnny Wilson (2nd/3rd)
Trey Benson (4th-7th)
Jordan Travis (5th-7th)
Jaheim Bell (3rd-5th)
Fabien Lovett (4th-7th)
Darrel Jackson or Fiske (3rd- 5th)
And we have a few others who could be picked in Deloach, Bless Harris, etc.
All of these are transfers except for deloach.
Fsu next yr will be a great case study on a portal team who not only used the portal alot but actually got good players and draft picks out of it. Is there a difference in getting these players in the portal vs high school? I don't think so.
I think moving forward, high school recruiting will mean less than it does today (not saying it won't ever be the most important piece because right now the data shows that it is but I think it could become less important). Here's why, recruits transfer all the time, so classes don't even stay with their original team. UGA just had a starter leave for USC, Bama had players leave etc. I think it's turning slowly but we will see.
I don't think fsu makes the playoffs this yr, I expect us to lose a game or two. We have really good players but I'm concerned about our corners/safeties and the depth there. Good passing teams seem to smoke us and we were really good against the run until UF and OU. I think it's safe to say we will be good but I'm not buying great until I see it.
HC is a great recruiter, but a so-so coach. = Portal Hurts
HC is a so-so recruiter, but a great coach. = Portal Helps
EDIT
HC is a great recruiter, also a great coach. = Portal unnecessary...
HC is a so-so recruiter, but a great coach. = Portal Helps
EDIT
HC is a great recruiter, also a great coach. = Portal unnecessary...
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Top 2024 WR - Florida OV June 2-4
5* WR Jeremiah Smith (6-3, 198) out of Opa Locka (Florida) Chaminade-Madonna Prep told 247Sports’ Steve Wiltfong on Saturday that he plans on making his official visit to the Swamp the first weekend of June — joining a myriad of other recruits to open the month.Smith is currently committed to the Ohio State Buckeyes but is still open to his offer from the Sunshine State’s flagship institution.
Here is a look at how 247Sports Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins feels about the in-state talent.
Jeremiah Smith - Hudl
“One of the most talented wide receiver prospects to come out of South Florida in the modern recruiting era,” Ivins wrote in his evaluation. “The type of wideout that can beat a defense over the top one play and then box defenders out in the corner of the end zone the next. Has a knack for making high-level grabs look extremely routine, like plucking the football out of the air with one hand while in traffic.”
https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/202...ecruiting-jeremiah-smith-official-visit-date/
The portal combined with NIL has totally changed everything. Only teams recruiting top 5 area every year like GA, OSU and Bama etc. can avoid having to do much in the portal imo if they want to try and be a very good team going forward. If you have some NIL through big boosters it can allow you to remain somewhat competitive even if you don't have enough to be using it on signing top 100 high school kids also as you will get more bang for your buck signing established solid players.
Even Bama goes portal tho. They took g tech running back that was drafted in the 1st rd. They took a Louisville receiver. We are fighting them rn for a safety. So it's even starting to effect them as well.
With these QB's on the roster already, why do they believe that they need to spend another ship on another xfer QB???
QB Micah Leon 6-5 211 Grad-Sr - NCSt/UConn xfer WO
QB Graham Mertz 6-3 214 rsJr - Wis xfer
QB Jack Miller III 6-3 214 rsSo - tOSU xfer
QB Mac Brown 6-2 215 rsFr - Tulsa Ok HS
QB Parker Leise 6-2 215 Fr - IMG Acad 3-star PWO
PLUS - This week saw the DraftKings Sportsbook update its early lines for many major college football matchups for the 2023 season, and five Florida games are included, including the season-opener against the Utes.
247sports.com
QB Micah Leon 6-5 211 Grad-Sr - NCSt/UConn xfer WO
QB Graham Mertz 6-3 214 rsJr - Wis xfer
QB Jack Miller III 6-3 214 rsSo - tOSU xfer
QB Mac Brown 6-2 215 rsFr - Tulsa Ok HS
QB Parker Leise 6-2 215 Fr - IMG Acad 3-star PWO
PLUS - This week saw the DraftKings Sportsbook update its early lines for many major college football matchups for the 2023 season, and five Florida games are included, including the season-opener against the Utes.
Florida football lines updated for five key games in 2023
DraftKings Sportsbook has updated betting lines for 5 Florida games in 2023.
247sports.com
Numbers,
Saban has 7 Natties (6 @ Bama; 1 @ LSU), IMO, he would like to get 1 more Nattie & then retire - but I don't see that happening.
Saban, now 71; still a good coach & Bama still a good team but NIL$$$ (legal McDonalds' Bags) starting to equalize CFB recruiting & both Bama & Saban starting to come back to the pack.
Trend will become more pronounced & I don't think Saban will stay at Bama much longer.
Too many schools now copying his organizational & recruiting methods & willing to throw large chunks of legal NIL$$$ at players.
Kirby - obviously; Tenn, & LSU probably next up & CBN & Gators starting to get established.
Next year's Problem - Texas & Oklahoma enter the SEC & neither one of them is poor or unsophisticated.
Kirby & UGA have taken center stage; don't know how long they will hold it.
IMO, more likely for teams to peak - have that one great year when all the pieces (QB, etc) come together, win a Nattie & then slide back.
Coaches will leave for Jimbo Fischer contracts, starters will leave for the NFL, & depth pieces will leave for Portal Paydays.
Then it will start all over again with the next team up.
In the future you may be able to build a natty team via majority portal kids, but right now you need HS recruiting. These high school kids showing up more ready to play than ever. Can't build depth via the portal yet and injuries can derail a team without it.
No. 1 WR Schedules Florida Official Visit
The consensus No. 1 wide receiver in the class of 2024, Opa Locka (Fla.) Chaminade-Madonna Prep's Jeremiah Smith, will officially visit Florida from June 2-4, according to 247Sports.Smith will be joined by the prize of Florida's 2024 recruiting class, high-caliber quarterback commitment DJ Lagway,
and three other pledged prospects during the visit:
wide receiver Izaiah Williams,
linebacker Adarius Hayes and
safety Josiah Davis.
Knew about Lagway being here but not the others.
Should be an interesting weekend -
CBN has a month to shuffle the deck & get a few more commits & well regarded prospects here as well.
I'm betting on Billy !
Hope Lagway, Williams, & Smith can find a football & throw it around some !
https://www.si.com/college/florida/...iting-jeremiah-smith-schedules-official-visit
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Simmons has like a 5.0 GPA or some crazy thing like that. He can reclassify and even come in this summer/fall if he really wants too. He’s currently 17 yrs old. I keep hearing he’s going to reclassify but I guess we will see.
Lagway and Smith would most certainly be a great QB/WR combo.
Paco,
Your thoughts on Izaiah Williams, as the third member of that trio.
OR
perhaps there's another WR at Chaminade Madonna, who could work well with Smith -
JOSHISA TRADER
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Gator Football Scholarship Offers
I had forgotten that you tracked them for us -
Thanks Jason
https://florida.rivals.com/offers/football/2024
I like Izaiah Williams a lot. He’s going to rise up the rankings. Trader is overrated IMO. He reminds me of the Damian McDaniel of Percy Harvin’s recruitment. Jeremiah Smith is just on a whole different level. TJ Moore is the next WR we need to lock up.
Gators offer transfer portal DB Antonio Carter II
Gators still active with transfer portal DB's
247sports.com
Ocala,Gators offer transfer portal DB Antonio Carter II
Gators still active with transfer portal DB's
Good pick up; thanks for posting !
Not sure we need another safety - but I'm not CBN.
On the plus side - he is a Florida player - from Oak Ridge High School in Orlando, Florida which might help us sign him.
Also, Carter not a “one year rental” - two years of eligibility remaining.
Could not find a Rivals write up so I read but am NOT posting the one from TOS.
I will note that his write up stated that "...Antonio Carter II is a Cornerback from Orlando, FL."
Not highly regarded coming out of HS -
BUT
the article you posted said -
"...In 2022, Carter (6-1, 200) played 703 snaps. He played press man coverage on 40.2% of his coverage snaps last season, according to TruMedia. Opposing quarterbacks completed 32 of 59 passes for 377 yards and two touchdowns against him."
Don't know what sort of help he got from the other players in his secondary or how good his coach was - as opposed to Corey Raymond.
I'm sure, that CBN smart enough to get input from Raymond before extending an offer to Carter. So both CBN & Raymond must think he can help.
This kid looks good on tape but not sure if he is better than the Michigan transfer we got or not. A lot of good teams are after him though.
Napier Anticipates 'Much-Improved' Gators Defense Under Armstrong
After abysmal defensive play in 2022, head coach Billy Napier expects the unit to take a fundamental step forward under Austin Armstrong's leadership.Patrick Toney was overmatched trying to be a DC in the SEC.
Coming from Southern Miss, Austin has no Big League / Power 5 experience as a DC.
Hope its true; but not convinced; IMO, we won't know till we play the first 5 games.
https://www.si.com/college/florida/...in-armstrong-defense-fundamental-step-forward
Utah - rising returns at QB1; very tough game on the road; lucky for us it's DRY heat (LOL) out there
McNeese - rent a victim (I hope) correct errors from Utah - would say something STUPID like start prep for Tenn; but don't think this team will be good enough to take a chance like that
Tennessee - beat us 38-33 in Neyland Stadium last year.
Joe Milton, who will be entering his third year in Heupel's system, getting a LOT of BUZZ this offseason.
However, despite competing for five years in college football, Milton doesn’t have a ton of starting experience. The little bit that he has shined a light on some deficiencies as a passer, starting with inaccuracy down the field.
Tenn's 2 games prior to UF -
Virginia (3-7, 1-6 ACC) Season-opener in Nashville; Virginia - not very good last year; barring a Transfer Portal miracle, doubt they will be much better this year
Austin Peay (7-4) - tune up game for Tenn
Doubt that Josh Heupel (3rd season) & Vols show much of anything on offense in 1st two games; saving all their new plays & players for us. Huge test for Armstrong & Defense; Tenn favored
Charlotte - (3-9, 2-6 AAC) - hopefully a get well game for the Gators & our Defense. Again, we are not good enough to start prep for Kentucky must play to beat Charlotte.
Kentucky - (7-6, 3-5 SEC) beat us 26-16 at Home in BHG stadium
Stoops made good adjustments on Defense & shut AR down in 2nd half.
On the road BUT I hope this is a Toss up game.
Kentucky's opponents prior to Gators
Damn - Bear Bryant would be proud; Stoops has the best early season schedule I've seen in YEARS !
BALL STATE (5–7, 3–5 MAC)
EASTERN KENTUCKY (7–5, 3–2 ASUN)
AKRON (2-10, 1-7 MAC)
At Vanderbilt - (5-7, 2-6 SEC) but beat us (31-24) last year
Paco,
His write up on TOS said ; "...Antonio Carter II is a Cornerback from Orlando, FL."
At (6-1, 200) big enough for run support.
So you could easily be right.
Ocala's article said he was in on a LOT of plays last year - In 2022, Carter played 703 snaps. He played press man coverage on 40.2%
Didn't really say WHERE (what position) all those snaps were, but he definitely has game experience.
If CBN is able to sign him, he & Raymond will find a place for him.
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OL Ty Hylton (6-4, 270) says the Florida Gators are high on his board
“The visit was mainly an information gathering visit for my parents because the first time I went up there it was just me and my coach,” he said on what he was able to get out of the visit. “This visit was for my parents to see everything, and they liked everything that Florida has to offer.My mom loved the people on staff and the area.”
ALWAYS a good sign !
https://www.gatorcountry.com/feature/hylton-says-the-florida-gators-are-high-on-his-board/
ESPN FPI projections for every game on Florida's 2023 schedule
The FPI puts Florida's odds of winning six games at 82.2% and gives the Gators a 3.0% chance of winning the Southeastern Conference's Eastern Division. The ESPN FPI projects Florida's win-loss record as 6.8-5.2.However, in the game-by-game projections, the Gators are favored in eight of 12 games on the schedule by the Matchup Predictor powered by ESPN Analytics.
Would love it; but I don't see 8 wins with this schedule. Some of these win %s are extremely low -
EXAMPLE
Tenn - UF Win probability: 51.7 percent.
FSU - UF Win probability: 50.3 percent.
This is the same idiocy that has us "favored in 8 games."
Please - go to Vegas & jump all over it.
LOL
Our QB play & our offense a big ???
Tenn will score & we can't win a shootout.
Don't believe our Defense will improve that much by 3rd game or even by the end of the season.
IMO, 7-5 would be great & I would settle for 6-6 - without a return visit to Las Vegas.
"...When it comes to Florida's postseason hopes, the Gators have minimal odds to make the College Football Playoff and have a 0.5% chance of winning the SEC, according to the FPI.
As for winning the Eastern division, Georgia is ranked the highest, not just in the SEC, but in the entire country, at 89.5%, with Tennessee next in the East at 5.4%."
Talking Heads & "Analysts" don't know as much as they think they do, but we all know that this will be a tough year.
We need to survive this year & "Wait till Next Year" - 2024 for the rebuild to gain momentum !
https://247sports.com/college/flori...rankings-list-gators-2023--209948802/#2165928
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I think Defense will be improved but we will go from #100 to about #50 which isnt nearly good enough to carry most games for you ike the defense did some years under the 3 previous coaches.
ESPNs FPI has us barely favored over FSU and TN since the games are at home but has us clear underdogs to GA, LSU and Utah. We are favored in 8 of the 12 games. For the season it projects the W/L as 6.8 and 5.2.
Where Florida football lands in The Athletic's SEC power rankings after spring
The Gators landed at No. 10 in these power rankings and here is what Ubben had to say about his decision.
The Auburn Tigers, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Missouri Tigers and Vanderbilt Commodores lag behind the Gators in the standings.
I look at our recruiting & believe that we need to do what Kentucky did when Mark Stoops was starting out -
support our coach (CBN) & know that better days are on the horizon.
https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/202...ngs-after-spring-camp/?itm_source=parsely-api
The FPI puts Florida's odds of winning 6 games at 82.2% and gives the Gators a 3.0% chance of winning the SEC-E. The ESPN FPI projects Florida's win-loss record as 6.8-5.2.
(even before Spring, the iG's WAG)
5-7 likely
6-6 possible
7-5 takes a miracle
When it comes to Florida's postseason hopes, the Gators have minimal odds to make the College Football Playoff and have a 0.5% chance of winning the SEC, according to the FPI.
According to ESPN, FPI preseason rankings are based on "past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections."
=====
And with spring football complete, coaches who brought in transfers to fill key holes — especially at quarterback — have a much better idea of what they have to work with....
In UF's case, Billy was so happy after Spring that he is looking for yet another (his 3rd) xfer QB.... (what this says about his 1st 2 choices at xfer QB's is,,, another SWING-anna-MISS...) 😑
https://247sports.com/college/flori...ections-rankings-list-gators-2023--209948802/
PS
The difference between 2-3 star recruits, and 4-5 star recruits is a lot closer than you might think?
The 2023 NFL Draft featured a record-setting 13 former five-star prospects selected in the first round. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, 9 draft-eligible five-stars did not even hear their names called at all during draft week.
>>> That looks close to 'a flip of the coin' to me, and it seems to show that coaching player development means more than recruiting stars...
5-star Mertz, 4-star Miller III, 3-star Brown, 2-star Trask.... 😎
(even before Spring, the iG's WAG)
5-7 likely
6-6 possible
7-5 takes a miracle
When it comes to Florida's postseason hopes, the Gators have minimal odds to make the College Football Playoff and have a 0.5% chance of winning the SEC, according to the FPI.
According to ESPN, FPI preseason rankings are based on "past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating. We then use those ratings to simulate the season 20,000 times, resulting in our projections."
=====
And with spring football complete, coaches who brought in transfers to fill key holes — especially at quarterback — have a much better idea of what they have to work with....
In UF's case, Billy was so happy after Spring that he is looking for yet another (his 3rd) xfer QB.... (what this says about his 1st 2 choices at xfer QB's is,,, another SWING-anna-MISS...) 😑
https://247sports.com/college/flori...ections-rankings-list-gators-2023--209948802/
PS
The difference between 2-3 star recruits, and 4-5 star recruits is a lot closer than you might think?
The 2023 NFL Draft featured a record-setting 13 former five-star prospects selected in the first round. But on the opposite end of the spectrum, 9 draft-eligible five-stars did not even hear their names called at all during draft week.
>>> That looks close to 'a flip of the coin' to me, and it seems to show that coaching player development means more than recruiting stars...
5-star Mertz, 4-star Miller III, 3-star Brown, 2-star Trask.... 😎
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Huh? Typically there are only 25- 30 five star rated players out of high school, roughly 275 four star rated players, and anywhere from 500-700 three star players depending on the ranking service. 256 players are chosen in the nfl draft give or take a few comp picks. On average 50% of 5 star players end up drafted, about 19% 4 star and roughly 6% 3 star. 5 stars do have their share of flops, but they have a much greater chance of getting drafted.
2024 recruits on flip-watch to the Gators
Obviously, the Gators aren’t going to just walk into another team’s class and poach what they want.But they’ll get a few.
Here are some of the top committed prospects that are on “flip-watch” to become Gators.
WR Jeremiah Smith – Ohio State
Flip confidence: 25%
Jeremiah also scheduled an official visit to come back to see the Gators and adjusted the date to ensure that DJ would be there with him on June 9th.
It’s safe to say that securing Smith’s commitment would launch the Gators’ recruiting to another level, and give Lagway a lethal weapon to throw to when he gets to campus.
DL Dealyn Evans – Texas A&M
Flip confidence: 40%
Dealyn out of Longview, Texas, is the 70th-best player in the country, and the 10th-best DL.
WR Chance Robinson – Miami
Flip confidence: 30%
Out of Fort Lauderdale, Chance is a top-25 wideout in the ’24 class and the 135th-best player in the country.
WR Tawaski Abrams – Florida State
Flip confidence: 40%
From Ft. Myers, FL - “If I de-committed, it would be to go to Florida – no ifs and or buts.
TE Jonathan Echols - Tennessee
Flip confidence: 55%
He’s rated as a top-five ATH in the 2024 class, and a top-15 player coming out of Florida.
https://hailfloridahail.com/2023/05/09/florida-football-recruiting-flip-commitment-gators/
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Jordan pride commits to TAMU. I honestly think you guys dodged a bullet there. Not a fan of his tape, too stiff for safety and not great in coverage, not big enough or hits hard enough for linebacker.
I don't think Chance or Jeremiah flip (especially if Brain Hartline stays). I think the others can be flipped.
I will say tho, it's good for you that he keeps showing up on campus.
Tawaski is a good player but I think we view him as our 3rd or 4th best receiver in the class so he's sniffing around as we are sniffing around so it's possible he can flip. He has speed and I wish we viewed him as someone we need rather than someone we want
And never do better than 5-3 in SEC play? That is good for KY though.
Fever,
SOS & Urban long gone.
Over the last 10 years (what have you done for me lately ?) the gators are 47 - 35 in SEC Play
an average of 4.7 wins & 3.5 loses each year so we haven't exactly lit up the SEC standings
Half those years we were worse than 5-3
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/florida/2022-schedule.html
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I support Napier right now but he might be the first coach here not to go at least 8-4 his second season since Spurrier was here.
An even crazier stat. If we dont go 8-4 it will be the first time since Doug Dickey in the 70s that a Gator head coach didnt get at least 8 regular season wins in either of his first 2 years.
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I’ll take Jeremiah Smith & Dealyn Evans. Echols is a fast rising TE prospect.
Paco,
Like your choices
Jeremiah Smith - WR - his film makes my eyes pop out.
To show the futility of issuing percentages for "flip candidates", my poor brain dredged up two flip "candidates" from the last recruiting cycle - both of whom ended up at UCF.
John Walker - DT - a really good one; everyone, myself included KNEW it was just a matter of time until he became a Gator. After commttng to UCF, he took an OV to Hogtown and ??? - NADA !
We pursued him until the bitter end & he still ended up at UCF.
Isaiah Nixon - Edge - We Flipped him !
Nixon originally committed to the Knights during the team's spring game on April 16, flipped to UF in June, then in December, right before ESD, he flipped back to UCF.
Not holding my breath for any of these players to see the light & join us;
BUT
I just keeping thinking about Smith scheduling his OV for a time when Lagway & Williams will be there.
Recruiting fantasies - ain't they great !
https://www.news-journalonline.com/...s-first-group-of-big-12-recruits/69740097007/
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We let Nixon go. Didn’t push for him towards the end before ESD. Walker’s recruitment is certainly a weird one and a head scratcher but he just didn’t want to leave the Orlando area.
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