Too soon to talk football? [predict the season(s)]

[alaskanseminole]

And regarding conference strength, I keep saying this over and over. Take out all the subjective opinions from fans, teams, and their coaches and pay attention to what the pros think. The SEC has had more 1st round draft picks the past 10 years than any other conference. In fact, they're pretty much lapping the field. I think last year is the first year in which they didn't have the most 1st round picks. And I guarantee you none of those executives give a damn where a player went to school.

And the ACC was 2nd with 47 players drafted (to the SEC's 54) and we see how well the ACC is regarded in football. The bottom line is, the SEC shouldn't be touted as the best because they simply play each other. Again, the SEC (the best conference in CFB) went 0-4 vs the ACC in November alone and 2-5 in their bowls. Conversely, the PAC-12 went 5-2 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the bowls. 11-4 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the regular season.

Maybe that was a fluke.

Again, my argument isn't that the SEC isn't a great football conference (because it is) it's that A. they aren't the only one AND B. they shouldn't get credit simply for playing each other. Did you read the article I posted above?

 

[PacoGator19]

But the preseason issue isn't specific to the SEC. I'm not even an SEC guy, I don't like em. Outside of UF, I generally root for them to lose. But I feel like the arguments most people use are just flawed. Every year teams are overranked in the preseason and when other teams beat them they get an inflated boost in their ranking. For example last year Ohio St. started at 3 even with all their personnel losses and their QB being injured and when VT beat them at their house week 2 they got a huge jump in the rankings when realistically (at least to start the season) Ohio St. was not a top 10 caliber team. The same thing happened with Oklahoma who started off at 4 where they were clearly overranked. After TCU beat them they got a huge boost in the rankings. What you're describing isn't an SEC issue and doesn't give them any advantage over any other conference.

This. I'm not a huge SEC guy either. I dislike all the SEC schools for the most part, except for UF, but I also know it is the best college football conference in the country and has been that way for at least the last decade.

 

[alaskanseminole]

So you tell me which conference is the best conference in college football? QUOTE]

In 2014 I argue that the PAC 12 was better than the SEC. They went 5-2 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the bowls (SEC went 2-5) and 11-4 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the regular season.

You're missing the point, Paco. You (or anyone) can't argue that UF's schedule is better because the teams they play are in the SEC. Those SEC teams are simply playing each other, so there's really no way to know just how good they are until they start branching out. Did you read the analysis I posted above?

Yes, they won 7 straight titles (nothing since 2012) and yes they have bunches of draft picks. How do either of those contribute to UF's 2015 SOS?

 

[PacoGator19]

And the ACC was 2nd with 47 players drafted (to the SEC's 54) and we see how well the ACC is regarded in football. The bottom line is, the SEC shouldn't be touted as the best because they simply play each other. Again, the SEC (the best conference in CFB) went 0-4 vs the ACC in November alone and 2-5 in their bowls. Conversely, the PAC-12 went 5-2 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the bowls. 11-4 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the regular season.

Maybe that was a fluke.

Again, my argument isn't that the SEC isn't a great football conference (because it is) it's that A. they aren't the only one AND B. they shouldn't get credit simply for playing each other. Did you read the article I posted above?

You don't get it! The SEC is touted the best because they have won 7 national title in the last 10 years from 4 different programs, which speaks to the incredible depth of the conference and how good it is because of all the national championships that has been won from teams in the SEC. Your citing just 1 year. Whoopty doo

 

[alaskanseminole]

You don't get it! The SEC is touted the best because they have won 7 national title in the last 10 years from 4 different programs, which speaks to the incredible depth of the conference and how good it is because of all the national championships that has been won from teams in the SEC. Your citing just 1 year. Whoopty doo

The conversation isn't what conference is best, Paco. It's "predict THIS season."

If the argument is that UF's schedule is better because the SEC is the best conference and the reason they are the best is because they won titles 3 years ago, then I call BS. Your argument about is USF is valid and I concede to its validity. However, I stand my ground that each season should be looked at in and of itself, otherwise we get a bunch of inflated rankings like last season.

Btw, it's not just 1 year. It's been happening for a while, but last year the SEC simply got burned for it. You can't run from the fact the vast majority of the SEC's OOC games come from Conference USA, Sun Belt and FCS. With the new push for the P5 match-ups & OOC strength in the new playoff system, the SEC will have to change it's prior BCS success model.

 

[oozie7]

And the ACC was 2nd with 47 players drafted (to the SEC's 54) and we see how well the ACC is regarded in football. The bottom line is, the SEC shouldn't be touted as the best because they simply play each other. Again, the SEC (the best conference in CFB) went 0-4 vs the ACC in November alone and 2-5 in their bowls. Conversely, the PAC-12 went 5-2 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the bowls. 11-4 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the regular season.

Maybe that was a fluke.

Again, my argument isn't that the SEC isn't a great football conference (because it is) it's that A. they aren't the only one AND B. they shouldn't get credit simply for playing each other. Did you read the article I posted above?

I did. And count me in the group that doesn't think the SEC as a whole is vastly superior to other conferences. Generally, the top teams in every conference are comparable. The difference historically has been that the SEC would have 4 of those teams in comparison to other conferences have 1 or 2. 4 different SEC teams have won a title in the last decade, which speaks to that point. But yea, the mid tier and bottom tier teams are pretty much the same caliber across conferences.

And last year the Pac 12 was the best conference in football, I said it all year. And while I agree the past shouldn't get you praise in the here and now, you can't completely disregard it either. Because when the SEC was dominating the bowl seasons, there was always some justification given for why it didn't mean much, now everyone wants to point to bowl record the one year they underperformed and disregard all the past seasons when they owned it, that doesn't make any sense to me.

 

[PacoGator19]

The conversation isn't what conference is best, Paco. It's "predict THIS season."

If the argument is that UF's schedule is better because the SEC is the best conference and the reason they are the best is because they won titles 3 years ago, then I call BS. Your argument about is USF is valid and I concede to its validity. However, I stand my ground that each season should be looked at in and of itself, otherwise we get a bunch of inflated rankings like last season.

Btw, it's not just 1 year. It's been happening for a while, but last year the SEC simply got burned for it. You can't run from the fact the vast majority of the SEC's OOC games come from Conference USA, Sun Belt and FCS. With the new push for the P5 match-ups & OOC strength in the new playoff system, the SEC will have to change it's prior BCS success model.

Exactly why it is useless to look at anything pre-season, whether it be pre-season rankings or SOS, but it is the pre-season and it was you who tried to tier all the teams to validate FSUs schedule.

The SEC didn't get burned by it last year. They got 1 team into the playoff and that team lost. Plain and simple. In fact the Bama vs Ohio State game was the only close game out of all the playoff games. And no the SEC isn't going to need to change it's scheduling. The SEC continues to get the best football players. See college football recruiting and the NFL draft. If the SEC continues to get the best football players like they have been for the past decade then it will continue to be the best conference. That is just the truth of the matter. I agree the Pac 12 was very good last year, but just 1 year doesn't make all of a sudden the SEC not a great conference or a down year.

The 4 national champions out of 1 conference is very very unique. I don't think there is another conference in the country that is capable of producing 4 different national title teams. That is what makes the SEC a step above the rest.

 

[METSWIN]

LOL!! Seriously? What a joke! How is Mizzou in the mid-tier for UF when they finished 11-3 and won the SEC East last year. How in the hell is USF in the mid-tier? They were 4-8 last year and have a coach on the hot seat.

UFs schedule isn't as tough as it usually is, but it is still tougher than FSUs schedule. I still find it hysterical you had the guts to put USF in the "mid-tier"

Almost as funny as claiming the game against Mizzou is a "toss up". And the game against FSU is one as well.

 

[oozie7]

Almost as funny as claiming the game against Mizzou is a "toss up". And the game against FSU is one as well.

Both teams lost a lot and by that point in the season it should become clearer as to what UF is and isn't. It's like people forget Mizzou gained like 100 yards against UF and we lost solely because the team self destructed with ridiculous turnovers. A poorly coached UF team beat up on FSU for 2 1/2 quarters as well and next year's game is in the swamp with presumably a better coached team.

 

[PacoGator19]

Almost as funny as claiming the game against Mizzou is a "toss up". And the game against FSU is one as well.

Not sure what is funny considering we gave FSU a much better game and almost beat FSU last season. The UF/Mizzou game wasn't even close last year despite our defense holding Mizzou to like 120 yards of offense.

 

[oozie7]

Yea I mean FSU lost arguably the best QB in their history (and what they have returning isn't ready, hence Gholson), 4 out of 5 on the o-line, O-Leary, and 7 starters on defense. Their best returning player in Cook may not even be on the team also. Totally insane to think an away game against their rival might be a toss up...LOL. And I think we'd be dogs in that game, but in rivalry games anything can happen.

 

[PacoGator19]

Yea I mean FSU lost arguably the best QB in their history (and what they have returning isn't ready, hence Gholson), 4 out of 5 on the o-line, O-Leary, and 7 starters on defense. Their best returning player in Cook may not even be on the team also. Totally insane to think an away game against their rival might be a toss up...LOL. And I think we'd be dogs in that game, but in rivalry games anything can happen.

Agreed.

 

[PacoGator19]

And the ACC was 2nd with 47 players drafted (to the SEC's 54) and we see how well the ACC is regarded in football. The bottom line is, the SEC shouldn't be touted as the best because they simply play each other. Again, the SEC (the best conference in CFB) went 0-4 vs the ACC in November alone and 2-5 in their bowls. Conversely, the PAC-12 went 5-2 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the bowls. 11-4 against out-of-conference Power 5 teams in the regular season.

Maybe that was a fluke.

Again, my argument isn't that the SEC isn't a great football conference (because it is) it's that A. they aren't the only one AND B. they shouldn't get credit simply for playing each other. Did you read the article I posted above?

Not sure what you mean there, don't all conference"s teams play each other?

 

[METSWIN]

Moral victory game in place. Ok. It is insane considering Vegas and most of the other "experts" still have FSU light years ahead of UF this season. We will beat you with SMAG or EG. What we lost is made up for in depth. UF has very little. You, Paco, have admitted so routinely. It will cost you in Missouri as well as Gainesville. I can appreciate your excitement for the coaching change and the transfers coming in but you are closer to USF than you are Mizzou or FSU. That is not smack. That is straight talk.

 

[oozie7]

LOL

 

[PacoGator19]

Moral victory game in place. Ok. It is insane considering Vegas and most of the other "experts" still have FSU light years ahead of UF this season. We will beat you with SMAG or EG. What we lost is made up for in depth. UF has very little. You, Paco, have admitted so routinely. It will cost you in Missouri as well as Gainesville. I can appreciate your excitement for the coaching change and the transfers coming in but you are closer to USF than you are Mizzou or FSU. That is not smack. That is straight talk.

Where does one even begin with all of this? LOL!

 

[METSWIN]

If I were you, and I did this during the Jeff Bowden years, I would begin with knowing the team you pull for is simply not that good. Granted the UF to USF comparison is a bit of a stretch but UF to Kentucky is not. Fair?

 

[PacoGator19]

If I were you, and I did this during the Jeff Bowden years, I would begin with knowing the team you pull for is simply not that good. Granted the UF to USF comparison is a bit of a stretch but UF to Kentucky is not. Fair?

FSU managed to beat UF by 5 points last year in Tally. Doesn't sound like much of a gap between the 2 teams to me.

 

[oozie7]

Mets, you've never seen any of this 'depth' of FSU play. Yet you're assuming things are just gonna keep on rolling because 'FSU bro!' ...or star rankings. You sound like UF fans circa 10' who thought we'd just keep absorbing personnel losses and keep rolling.

 

[Buddy Green]

I predict that when FSU and UF meet, their records will likely be the same, or at worst/best, one team is one game better. Its going to take something extraordinary for either to lose fewer than three games imo. It could happen, but it would likely take "everything bouncing their way" or some significant injury to their better opponents. UF is hard to call because of the new staff coupled with the "oddball" loses last year, but with a competent offensive game plan, I'd expect them to be in every game. FSU lost way too much from a year when they were "no Winston" away from four to five losses.

 

[METSWIN]

"One sure L because LSU just doesn't lose at home" They lost at home twice last year.
LSU managed to beat UF by 3 in Gainesville. Is the disparity bigger there because it was at home or because they are SEC?

Oozie, I think the difference is Meyer had checked out and left you with bogus players. I think Jimbo is more tuned in with the program therefore I trust his product at this point.

 

[oozie7]

Yea but you said that FSU was far ahead of UF, what is that based on? UF played you to the wire and you just had huge personnel losses. So why do you assume you're way ahead? Are you better? Yea, I think so. And you guys will be favored to win the game. But I'm trying to figure out why you think me listing that game as a toss up is laughable considering we have no idea how FSU's replacements and will fare and we have no idea what we'll see from UF. And it's a home game for UF with one of the best home filed advantages in the country. I'd still expect FSU to win but I see no issue with listing that game as a toss up at this point.

 

[PacoGator19]

What FSU fans won't admit or just don't realize is that there team last year wasn't as good as they had thought. They struggled in just about every game they played last year and when they played against somebody that was actually a pretty good team they got stomped all over the field and were made to look like they didn't belong in the playoff. FSU wasn't one of the 4 best teams in the country last year just based on the "eye ball" test.

Just an FYI, but I believe Mizzou are larger favorites over UF than FSU is at the moment based on the pre-season Vegas odds.

 

[METSWIN]

oozie, it is based somewhat on pre-season polls and somewhat on the talent that has been brought in at FSU and the fact that our staff is not going through another overhaul. UF played us tough last year. No doubt. It was like the Zook game all over again. Nothing to lose. I could see it coming.

Would you rather be gathering Ol's from Furman and 3 star QBs from Texas or have our roster and staff? I know you have to save face and can't answer that objectively but I think my assertions are realistic. FSU is in a much better place right now. We will more than likely have a better incoming class next signing period too which will hurt you further. The positive is your class could be better than had Champ stayed on.

I am not trying to make this a nanny nanny boo boo conversation. Glad it is about football for a change. I think FSU will not be as good as last year and UF will be about the same. The gap is still significant though or you wouldn't have just fired your HC.

 

[METSWIN]

oops. wrong thread.

 

[METSWIN]

Paco, I admit it. I also know our QB won us some games but his TO's cost us a lot of points along the way. I suspect we will turn the ball over much less this year than last and not have to battle back like we were forced to in 14.

 

[PacoGator19]

Not sure why you think FSUs staff is so strong. You certainly don't have a very good defensive coordinator right now.

 

[hardliner]

FSU managed to beat UF by 5 points last year in Tally. Doesn't sound like much of a gap between the 2 teams to me.

Lol come on. Your 2006 NC team was tied late in the game with the worst FSU team in Bowden's tenure and won by 7. Were those teams close too? Of course not.

 

[PacoGator19]

Paco, I admit it. I also know our QB won us some games but his TO's cost us a lot of points along the way. I suspect we will turn the ball over much less this year than last and not have to battle back like we were forced to in 14.

I could be wrong but wasn't your defense a bigger problem than TOs?? Let's be honest FSU isn't very confident in their defensive coordinator right now.

 

[METSWIN]

See my previous comment about TO's. Those put our defense in bad spots all year. I am not sure Kelly is the end all of DC's but I think he deserves another season.

 

[PacoGator19]

Lol come on. Your 2006 NC team was tied late in the game with the worst FSU team in Bowden's tenure and won by 7. Were those teams close too? Of course not.

That 2006 team got by on the skin of their teeth all year long against many teams. The difference is that team actually won the national title and was maybe the best UF coaching job I have ever seen. FSU got crushed by the 1 good team they played last year. That 2006 UF team didn't win a national title based on pure talent. Meyer and his staff did that with offensive players that didn't fit the system they wanted to run and in the 2nd year of that coaching staff and great defense. Not very many of those players that were heavy contributors to that 2006 national title team did much in the NFL.

 

[PacoGator19]

See my previous comment about TO's. Those put our defense in bad spots all year. I am not sure Kelly is the end all of DC's but I think he deserves another season.

Maybe so, but FSUs defense was 63rd in the country last year in yards given up per game.

 

[oozie7]

oozie, it is based somewhat on pre-season polls and somewhat on the talent that has been brought in at FSU and the fact that our staff is not going through another overhaul. UF played us tough last year. No doubt. It was like the Zook game all over again. Nothing to lose. I could see it coming.

Would you rather be gathering Ol's from Furman and 3 star QBs from Texas or have our roster and staff? I know you have to save face and can't answer that objectively but I think my assertions are realistic. FSU is in a much better place right now. We will more than likely have a better incoming class next signing period too which will hurt you further. The positive is your class could be better than had Champ stayed on.

I am not trying to make this a nanny nanny boo boo conversation. Glad it is about football for a change. I think FSU will not be as good as last year and UF will be about the same. The gap is still significant though or you wouldn't have just fired your HC.

Yes but you're assuming all your high caliber recruits will work out while simultaneously dismissing the possibility that UF's high caliber recruits will work out. Remember, UF has averaged a top 5 class over the past few years even with Muschamp. Do we have huge holes? Absolutely, but so does FSU. Even with all your NFL talent last year you were literally seconds away from having 4-5 losses and now your team has been gutted. I think you guys are really discounting the losses you've had, especially upfront. FSU has a lot of potential talent on the roster, no question. My only point though is if you're going to assume they'll all work out, you can't say other fans have are blinded by homerism when they think it's a possibility there guys might work out too.

As to your question as to whose roster and staff I'd rather have, for next year FSU's roster for sure. Don't agree on the staff. I believe Charles Kelly is a horrible coordinator for y'all and I don't think Jimbo is a great X and O guy. McElwain still has way more to prove obviously, but his resume as a coordinator stacks up against anybody, we'll see how he does as the head man here.

 

[oozie7]

"One sure L because LSU just doesn't lose at home" They lost at home twice last year.
LSU managed to beat UF by 3 in Gainesville. Is the disparity bigger there because it was at home or because they are SEC?

Oozie, I think the difference is Meyer had checked out and left you with bogus players. I think Jimbo is more tuned in with the program therefore I trust his product at this point.

The point about LSU was not meant to be literal, obviously LSU has and will lose games at home. But over the last 5 years LSU is 38-4 at home. Those losses have come to 12-1 UF (finished in the top 5), 13-1 Bama (won a national title), 10-3 Mississippi St. (BCS bowl team) and 12-2 Bama (top 4 team). So the trend is clear. To win at LSU you basically have to be a top 5 team, which is less than 5% of all D-1 teams. So yea, its damn near impossible to win at LSU.

 

[METSWIN]

I am certain guys at UF will work out too but, again, there is a reason why polls indicate where you will finish and why you are stocking up on players from lesser schools. Somewhere along the line talent evaluation and/or depth became more of an issue at UF than at FSU. Can we involve refugee in this conversation btw? He is calling for an FSU blowout. Your peeps, right?

Jimbo has never gotten a fair shake here in terms of being a coach. Jimbo's resume as a coordinator stacked up. Most would say his resume as a HC has too. I'd rather have the DC that left us for UGA than Kelly but your offense whipped his defense with 4 plays. UGA recruits fairly well, right? He should have been a plug and go kind of guy there considering what he did with our talent.

 

[METSWIN]

LSU won't play us anymore so I guess I don't know. They got tired of getting their ass kicked. I agree, though, tough place to play for sure.

 

[oozie7]

Agree with you on our depth because we lack there, our front line talent in spots are as good as anybody in the country though. The d-line and secondary for example.

 

[Nolebra Kai]

That 2006 team got by on the skin of their teeth all year long against many teams. The difference is that team actually won the national title and was maybe the best UF coaching job I have ever seen. FSU got crushed by the 1 good team they played last year. That 2006 UF team didn't win a national title based on pure talent. Meyer and his staff did that with offensive players that didn't fit the system they wanted to run and in the 2nd year of that coaching staff and great defense. Not very many of those players that were heavy contributors to that 2006 national title team did much in the NFL.

lol One good team.

Clemson and GT just sucked. Doesnt count though since they arent in the SEC.

 

[hardliner]

That 2006 team got by on the skin of their teeth all year long against many teams. The difference is that team actually won the national title and was maybe the best UF coaching job I have ever seen. FSU got crushed by the 1 good team they played last year. That 2006 UF team didn't win a national title based on pure talent. Meyer and his staff did that with offensive players that didn't fit the system they wanted to run and in the 2nd year of that coaching staff and great defense. Not very many of those players that were heavy contributors to that 2006 national title team did much in the NFL.

So Georgia Tech wasn't any good? Clemson not any good? Louisville not any good? Notre Dame not any good? GT and ND both beat SEC west teams in bowl games by the way. Yeah I know, bowl games don't count when the sec loses.

 

[BayAreaGator]

Moral victory game in place. Ok. It is insane considering Vegas and most of the other "experts" still have FSU light years ahead of UF this season. We will beat you with SMAG or EG. What we lost is made up for in depth. UF has very little. You, Paco, have admitted so routinely. It will cost you in Missouri as well as Gainesville. I can appreciate your excitement for the coaching change and the transfers coming in but you are closer to USF than you are Mizzou or FSU. That is not smack. That is straight talk.

Gone. Off the reservation.

And any Gator who attempts to reason or debate this guy deserves the headaches and hand wringing that will follow.