Thoughts on CFP Teams

ocalaman

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Ohio State will get in over Alabama, IMO. I agree that Clemson is out. The Buckeyes need Georgia to beat LSU and then either TCU or Southern Cal to lose a game. Georgia is in for sure. Michigan just needs to beat a weak Big 10 West champ to get in. If TCU & USC win out, they're in. If both of them lose, Alabama could get in with Ohio State, but I don't think they get in ahead of them.
 
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Gator Fever

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Ohio State will get in over Alabama, IMO. I agree that Clemson is out. The Buckeyes need Georgia to beat LSU and then either TCU or Southern Cal to lose a game. Georgia is in for sure. Michigan just needs to beat a weak Big 10 West champ to get in. If TCU & USC win out, they're in. If both of them lose, Alabama could get in with Ohio State, but I don;t think they get in ahead of them.
I still think OSU may go over a 2 loss LSU but I want to see what happens in the ND-USC game tonight.
 

TEBOW TIME

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Watched the entire Bama and Auburn game today and all they talked about was if Bama deserves to be in the top 4. If LSU, USC and TCU loses then I believe Bama sneaks in over OSU cause Bama's strength of schedule is 8th in the nation and OSU is 60 something and they were throttled at home today. Both of Bama's losses were on the road by a last second field goal by ranked SEC teams. Plus Bama brings in big bucks to the final playoff games like no one else does.
 

Gator Fever

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Watched the entire Bama and Auburn game today and all they talked about was if Bama deserves to be in the top 4. If LSU, USC and TCU loses then I believe Bama sneaks in over OSU cause Bama's strength of schedule is 8th in the nation and OSU is 60 something and they were throttled at home today. Both of Bama's losses were on the road by a last second field goal by ranked SEC teams. Plus Bama brings in big bucks to the final playoff games like no one else does.

Imo Bama has almost zero chance to go over a 1 loss OSU or a 1 loss TCU. Bama won't have any real big wins and no Conference championship either. The committee would have to totally ignore past precedent to pull that.
 
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PacoGator19

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12 team playoff will be a disaster. I get that it is interesting because everybody just wants to see more games but there isn’t even close to 12 good teams much less teams that are good enough to deserve a shot at a national title.

This is all about money and nothing else. That is what college football has turned into.

And oh yeah don’t totally count out Bama from sneaking in and possibly getting that 4th playoff spot. Things could still fall there way
 
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TEBOW TIME

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12 team playoff will be a disaster. I get that it is interesting because everybody just wants to see more games but there isn’t even close to 12 good teams much less teams that are good enough to deserve a shot at a national title.

This is all about money and nothing else. That is what college football has turned into.

And oh yeah don’t totally count out Bama from sneaking in and possibly getting that 4th playoff spot. Things could still fall there way
Agreed on the 12 teams disaster, Last year they just handed the 4th spot to Cincinnati cause no one else was left. TCU will be that team this year more than likely and will get blown out their first game cause they dont play anybody and are undefeated so far. I'm pulling for USC to get in cause I really like to watch Caleb Willams play the QB position.

 
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TEBOW TIME

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Gator Fever

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12 team playoff will be a disaster. I get that it is interesting because everybody just wants to see more games but there isn’t even close to 12 good teams much less teams that are good enough to deserve a shot at a national title.

This is all about money and nothing else. That is what college football has turned into.

And oh yeah don’t totally count out Bama from sneaking in and possibly getting that 4th playoff spot. Things could still fall there way

It would be nuts if they allowed Bama in after their previous actions.

It's been 1 loss trump's 2 losses even if 2 loss team has a better wins resume and/or a conference championship.

Big wins trump good losses and SOS overall isn't nearly as important as having nice wins.

Timing of loss doesnt affect things whether it's early or late in the season.
 

ih8f$u

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Imo Bama has almost zero chance to go over a 1 loss OSU or a 1 loss TCU. Bama won't have any real big wins and no Conference championship either. The committee would have to totally ignore past precedent to pull that.
I think this is the case. If they put them in over a 1 loss OSU thy would catch 10 shades of hell. I also think a 1 loss Michigan would get in over them. They need usc and TCU to lose, and even then I think it would cause outcry.
 
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Gator Fever

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Here are some of the info on some of these teams if it came down to an argument at the end to get in. I am guesstimating the next playoff rankings.

TCU: Good wins - (2) #10 Kansas State and #22 Texas
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (2) Oklahoma State and Texas Tech
Losses - (1) #10 Kansas State in a rematch * loss in extra 13th game

Bama:
Good wins - (2) #22 Texas and #25 Ole Miss/Miss State
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (1) Ole Miss/Miss State
Losses - (2) #7 Tennessee and #9 LSU

OSU: Good wins - (2) #8 Penn State and #21 Notre Dame
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (2) Iowa and Maryland
Losses - (1) #2 Michigan

USC: Good wins - (3) #16 UCLA, #18 Oregon State and #21 Notre Dame
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (1) Washington State
Losses - (2) #14 Utah both times * 2nd loss in extra 13th game
---------------------------------------

Looking at that I would think the only argument should be is if OSU or TCU should go if TCU loses in their championship game while USC wins. I would say USC even with 2 losses has about as good an argument as Bama does but both should be lower in the pecking order than a 1 loss TCU or OSU.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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Selection committe has already picked the top 3 teams -
UGA
OSU
Mich

IMO, UGA & Mich win Conference Championship Games.

If TCU beats Kansas State (9-3); TCU is in.
CFP Selection complete.

For USCw to get in, they needs a TCU loss & win vs Utah.

Where it could get interesting is if both TCU & USCw lose.

Bama (10-2) is Ranked #7; would the Selection Committee add them to the field & have 2 SEC teams & 2 B1G teams ?
 

Gator Fever

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Selection committe has already picked the top 3 teams -
UGA
OSU
Mich

IMO, UGA & Mich win Conference Championship Games.

If TCU beats Kansas State (9-3); TCU is in.
CFP Selection complete.

For USCw to get in, they needs a TCU loss & win vs Utah.

Where it could get interesting is if both TCU & USCw lose.

Bama (10-2) is Ranked #7; would the Selection Committee add them to the field & have 2 SEC teams & 2 B1G teams ?

I don't see any way they can pick a 1 loss OSU over a conference champion 1 loss USC as the resumes aren't that different with USC having 3 good wins to the 2 good wins that OSU had. I think that should be enough to overcome not having a top 10 win.
 

Jeff from Jax

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I don't see any way they can pick a 1 loss OSU over a conference champion 1 loss USC as the resumes aren't that different with USC having 3 good wins to the 2 good wins that OSU had. I think that should be enough to overcome not having a top 10 win.
Fever,

1. Kirk Herbstreet is now an unofficial, but unbiased, member of the CFP Selection Committee.

tOSU had a "good loss" - a moral victory to Mich; they only lost by 20 points ! LOL

2. Herbstreet & the Selection Committee will claim that there is little (no) difference in this & what they did last season when they added UGA to the field & they won the Nattie.
 

Jeff from Jax

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The ONLY way the Buckeyes get in is if TCU or USC loses and even then it may not happen.
Ocala,

see your point - but these ranking came out today & IMO, the top 3 are not likely to change.

Only question is who gets the 4th spot.

That argument didn't hold up last year when it was an SEC team - UGA - being considered.
 

ocalaman

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Ocala,

see your point - but these ranking came out today & IMO, the top 3 are not likely to change.

Only question is who gets the 4th spot.

That argument didn't hold up last year when it was an SEC team - UGA - being considered.
Can you provide a link to today's rankings that you're talking about where it shows the Top 3 as Georgia, Ohio State & Michigan? Pretty sure that's not accurate. The CFP rankings aren't released until Tuesday night as far as I know. Any other rankings are speculation. Even Buckeye homer Kirk Herbstreit gave his rankings last night after the games were over and had Georgia, Michigan, TCU & USC as his Top 4 with Alabama 5 and Ohio State 6. To me that's the big question for the CFP committee - whether to have Bama or OSU at #5. The coach's poll has been released this morning and it has Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC & Ohio State as the Top 5, with Alabama 6, Penn State 7 & Tennessee 8. I think that's how the official CFP rankings will be when released Tuesday night.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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Can you provide a link to today's rankings that you're talking about where it shows the Top 3 as Georgia, Ohio State & Michigan? Pretty sure that's not accurate. ? The CFP rankings aren't released until Tuesday night as far as I know. Any other rankings are speculation.
Ocala,

You could be right !

For the absolute 1st time in my life & on this board - I MAY have screwed up.

Ranking from CBS & have today's date - they could be speculation; but FWIW, I didn't see prediction or some such in the title.

Playoff Rankings Updated Nov 27, 2022​


https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/playoff-selection-committee-poll/
 
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ocalaman

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Ocala,

You could be right !

For the absolute 1st time in my life & on this board - I MAY have screwed up.

Ranking from CBS & have today's date - they could be speculation; but FWIW, I didn't see prediction or some such in the title.

Playoff Rankings Updated Nov 27, 2022​


https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/rankings/playoff-selection-committee-poll/
Yeah, that's not the official CFP rankings that the committee puts out every Tuesday night. That ranking in your link is what the official CFP rankings were going into this weekend, with just the updated records after the games were played. See attached link: https://allstatesugarbowl.org/news/2022/11/22/cfp-rankings.aspx

The new rankings that come out Tuesday will move LSU and Clemson down quite a bit and drop Ohio State out of the Top 4, no doubt.
 

Jeff from Jax

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Yeah, that's not the official CFP rankings that the committee puts out every Tuesday night. That ranking in your link is what the official CFP rankings were going into this weekend, with just the updated records after the games were played. See attached link: https://allstatesugarbowl.org/news/2022/11/22/cfp-rankings.aspx

The new rankings that come out Tuesday will move LSU and Clemson down quite a bit and drop Ohio State out of the Top 4, no doubt.
Ocala,

I'm sure your're correct.

AP top 25 polls updated on sunday & in fairness to myself, I did look for verbage on the CBS site that indicated they were predicted not actual.

I was not happy with them - hence my sarcism about Herbstreet.

But, I doubt that B1G fans were happy over last year with UGA getting in.

Figured sauce for the goose - sauce for the gander, etc.

Will be interested to see any adjustments CFP Selection Committee makes
 

Gator Fever

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Ocala,

I'm sure your're correct.

AP top 25 polls updated on sunday & in fairness to myself, I did look for verbage on the CBS site that indicated they were predicted not actual.

I was not happy with them - hence my sarcism about Herbstreet.

But, I doubt that B1G fans were happy over last year with UGA getting in.

Figured sauce for the goose - sauce for the gander, etc.

Will be interested to see any adjustments CFP Selection Committee makes

Its probably just down to how far they drop OSU as I cant see them flipping Bama over USC for an Auburn win when USC beat Notre Dame. OSU dropping below Bama would ignite a firestorm though.
 

ocalaman

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Its probably just down to how far they drop OSU as I cant see them flipping Bama over USC for an Auburn win when USC beat Notre Dame. OSU dropping below Bama would ignite a firestorm though.
It's going to be USC #4, Ohio State 5 and Alabama 6, IMO. Bama's SOS is #19 compared to the Buckeyes #42, so I could understand if the committee put Bama ahead of OSU, but I don't think they'll do it. Tennessee getting beat up by South Carolina and LSU losing to Texas A&M actually hurts Alabama.
 

Gator Fever

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It's going to be USC #4, Ohio State 5 and Alabama 6, IMO. Bama's SOS is #19 compared to the Buckeyes #42, so I could understand if the committee put Bama ahead of OSU, but I don't think they'll do it. Tennessee getting beat up by South Carolina and LSU losing to Texas A&M actually hurts Alabama.

I agree with that order mostly based on what the committee has done in the past which is usually prioritize the number of losses and the nice wins you had.
 

Jeff from Jax

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It's going to be USC #4, Ohio State 5 and Alabama 6, IMO. Bama's SOS is #19 compared to the Buckeyes #42, so I could understand if the committee put Bama ahead of OSU, but I don't think they'll do it. Tennessee getting beat up by South Carolina and LSU losing to Texas A&M actually hurts Alabama.
Ocala,

You see the three 12-0 teams - UGA, Mich, & TCU at the top in some order & 11-1 USCw at #4.

EDIT
Today's AP Top 25 agrees with you.
https://www.espn.com/college-footba...llege-football-poll-reaction-next-ranked-team

Have to admit, I am more comfortable with that then what I saw on the CBS site - still frustrated that a media company like CBS didn't differentiate between projected & actual.

Of course, CBS MIGHT have a direct line into the Selection Committe - LOL.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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Question -


IF both TCU & USCw lose in their Conference Title games - unlikely, what happens with tOSU & Bama ?

Several 10-2 teams - Tenn, Penn State, Wash, & Clemson - why does Bama get such preference ?

Obviously PAC12 & ACC suck, but it wouldn't be Politically
Correct for Selection Committe to come out & say that - LOL.

If only 1 of them losses, do we ASSUME that tOSU will jump into the CFP like UGA did last year ?
 
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ocalaman

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Question -


IF both TCU & USCw lose in their Conference Title games - unlikely, what happens with tOSU & Bama ?

Several 10-2 teams - Tenn, Penn State, Wash, & Clemson - why does Bama get such preference ?

Obviously PAC12 & ACC suck, but it wouldn't be Politically
Correct for Selection Committe to come out & say that - LOL.

If only 1 of them losses, do we ASSUME that tOSU will jump into the CFP like UGA did last year ?
I still think Ohio State gets in first if either TCU or USC lose. Clemson, to me, is out - period. The ACC was not very good this year and they got pounded by Notre Dame and lost to a middle of the SEC-pack South Carolina. Their best win was over FSU with an SOS of #37. They ain't gettin' in.
Penn State's SOS is #32, they finished 3rd in the Big 10 East and lost convincingly to both Ohio State & Michigan. Their best win was over Purdue to open the season. They're not getting a sniff at the Final 4.
Washington not only has zero chance, they have a negative chance to get in. :) It ain't happening. Their SOS is #101 and although they beat 8-4 Oregon, they lost to UCLA and 3-9 Arizona State and didn't play anybody else!
Tennessee has the best argument to me, but I doubt the committee will jump them over Alabama even though the Vols beat the Tide and the teams have the same record. Tennessee's SOS is #8 (Florida's is #7 by the way) and they beat LSU and Kentucky badly. But the way Georgia dominated them and then South Carolina blew them off their own field ended their chances for the Final 4.
So my humble opinion is that if TCU & USC loses, it'll be Ohio State & Alabama that get in. TCU better be ready because Kansas State is a very good team. And Oregon can score. If Bo Nix has a hot day they could beat USC in a shoot-out.
 
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Gator Fever

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Question -


IF both TCU & USCw lose in their Conference Title games - unlikely, what happens with tOSU & Bama ?

Several 10-2 teams - Tenn, Penn State, Wash, & Clemson - why does Bama get such preference ?

Obviously PAC12 & ACC suck, but it wouldn't be Politically
Correct for Selection Committe to come out & say that - LOL.

If only 1 of them losses, do we ASSUME that tOSU will jump into the CFP like UGA did last year ?

The TCU/OSU one is the biggest argument if USC won. If TCU and USC both lost then it should be TCU and OSU getting in I would think. I think OSU would get the nod over TCU but don't discount what the situation actually is and that TCU's loss would be in an extra 13th game.
 
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GwinnettDawg

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I still think Ohio State gets in first if either TCU or USC lose. Clemson, to me, is out - period. The ACC was not very good this year and they got pounded by Notre Dame and lost to a middle of the SEC-pack South Carolina. Their best win was over FSU with an SOS of #37. They ain't gettin' in.
Penn State's SOS is #32, they finished 3rd in the Big 10 East and lost convincingly to both Ohio State & Michigan. Their best win was over Purdue to open the season. They're not getting a sniff at the Final 4.
Washington not only has zero chance, they have a negative chance to get in. :) It ain't happening. Their SOS is #101 and although they beat 8-4 Oregon, they lost to UCLA and 3-9 Arizona State and didn't play anybody else!
Tennessee has the best argument to me, but I doubt the committee will jump them over Alabama even though the Vols beat the Tide and the teams have the same record. Tennessee's SOS is #8 (Florida's is #7 by the way) and they beat LSU and Kentucky badly. But the way Georgia dominated them and then South Carolina blew them off their own field ended their chances for the Final 4.
So my humble opinion is that if TCU & USC loses, it'll be Ohio State & Alabama that get in. TCU better be ready because Kansas State is a very good team. And Oregon can score. If Bo Nix has a hot day they could beat USC in a shoot-out.
Tennessee’s worst loss is way worse than Bama’s and I think they will consider UT lost Hooker. Getting beat by 25 by sakerlina isn’t a good look at all.
 

Countygator1

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OSU at 5 and Bama at 6 makes the most sense. Both TCU and USC will be in tough games this weekend. I believe at least one will lose putting OSU into the final 4.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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Ocala,

Great Article !

Thanks for the post.

A plethora of 9-3 teams to oppose the top-ranked teams; should make for an interesting, but IMO, predictable weekend.

Then Monday Dec 5th, Christmas Season (the transfer portal) OFFICIALLY opens.

Willing to bet several deals have already been made; hopefully for form's sake, they will wait at least a day before announcing them.
 
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ocalaman

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Ocala,

Great Article !

Thanks for the post.

A plethora of 9-3 teams to oppose the top-ranked teams; should make for an interesting, but IMO, predictable weekend.

Then Monday Dec 5th, Christmas Season (the transfer portal) OFFICIALLY opens.

Willing to bet several deals have already been made; hopefully for form's sake, they will wait at least a day before announcing them.
TCU should be on upset alert. Kansas State is pretty good, has already played them once and is very capable of beating them.
 

ocalaman

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USC had better watch out as well. They’ve already been beaten by Utah this season.
You have a point. But USC has continued to improve as the season went along. The 1st match-up was in Salt Lake City and it was a 43-42 score in which USC had 12 penalties to Utah's 5, plus USC failed on two 4th down conversions and Utah converted 3 of 3. And Utah did lose to Florida!! Personally, I want TCU and USC to both win just to add fresh teams to the CFP AND to keep Ohio State and Alabama out.
 
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Nicktheslick

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You have a point. But USC has continued to improve as the season went along. The 1st match-up was in Salt Lake City and it was a 43-42 score in which USC had 12 penalties to Utah's 5, plus USC failed on two 4th down conversions and Utah converted 3 of 3. And Utah did lose to Florida!! Personally, I want TCU and USC to both win just to add fresh teams to the CFP AND to keep Ohio State and Alabama out.
Neither team will be able to beat UGA though. Unfortunately (sorry Gwinnett)
 

Gator Fever

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If USC wins and TCU loses this will be a really big argument. The good wins resume is about the same. OSU has the better loss but they were dominated in that Michigan game. TCU has a strong argument their only loss came in an extra 13th game that OSU didn't have to play and they beat that team previously. Hard to say what they do here. TCU would have even a stronger case if they were a conference champion in this scenario.

TCU: Good wins - (2) #10 Kansas State and #20 Texas
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (2) Oklahoma State and Texas Tech
Losses - (1) #10 Kansas State in a rematch * loss in an extra 13th game which OSU doesn't have to play

OSU:
Good wins - (2) #8 Penn State and #21 Notre Dame
Other power 5 teams with winning records - (2) Iowa and Maryland
Losses - (1) #2 Michigan by a wide margin


Some articles out there saying TCU shouldn't be out if they lose since OSU doesn't play in a championship game but in 2017 the committee let a 1 loss Bama get in without playing in one when an undefeated Wisconsin lost in the Big 10 Championship game and was dropped out of the top 4.
 
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