Thoughts on CFP Teams

Gator Fever

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Feb 13, 2008
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if BK and LSU win Saturday, which they will not do, I would laugh after 6 months of hearing what a terrible hire that was

I think Kelly could still end up like Mullen though recruiting won't be one of the primary issues for Kelly's long term failure.
 

Gator Fever

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They are going to have a mess on their hands if it's between LSU and Tenn for a final spot. Would be hard to take 2 losses and a head to head loss over 1 loss though. I think if a PAC 12 team could pull off a 1 loss season they go over LSU also. TCU with the other Big 12 teams collapsing might need to go undefeated.
 

TEBOW TIME

Rowdy Reptile
Dec 7, 2019
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They are going to have a mess on their hands if it's between LSU and Tenn for a final spot. Would be hard to take 2 losses and a head to head loss over 1 loss though. I think if a PAC 12 team could pull off a 1 loss season they go over LSU also. TCU with the other Big 12 teams collapsing might need to go undefeated.
What if LSU somehow lucked up and beat Georgia in the SEC title game. SEC champ would get in and 1 loss Georgia for sure. Les Miles won a National Championship at LSU with 2 losses.
 
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Gator Fever

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What if LSU somehow lucked up and beat Georgia in the SEC title game. SEC champ would get in and 1 loss Georgia for sure. Les Miles won a National Championship at LSU with 2 losses.

I think 1 loss Tennessee would go over 2 loss SEC champ LSU then. The year that Auburn probably would have got in with 2 losses and the SEC championship they beat 1 loss Bama head to head.
 

Jeff from Jax

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Dec 2, 2004
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1. The SEC could get three in the playoff.​

Farrell’s take: FACT​

IMO - FICTION

It likely won’t happen but there are many what-if scenarios and a lot less parity in the conference than usual. Georgia, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and LSU could all cause a real problem if certain things happen (LSU winning the SEC title over Georgia is one) and we could see chaos. Clemson is done so the ACC is out and the PAC-12 is likely done as well despite USC, UCLA, and Oregon all with only one loss. The Big 12 is done too if TCU falters just once. So you have the Big Ten with either Ohio State or Michigan (I doubt both) and then three spots up for grabs. I’m telling you, it could happen.

https://mikefarrellsports.com/fact-...c-playoff-teams-chase-brown-northwestern-woes

Ole Miss
8-1 - but the Head-to-Head loss to LSU keeps them out of SECCG. Even if they win out - remaining games - Bama, Arkansas, Miss State - don't see them jumping over any of the other three SEC teams.
Ole Miss is penalized because LSU is a 2 loss team.

Tenn - 8-1 - remaining games - Missouri, USCe, Vandy. They finish 11-1 & hold their breath while LSU & UGA determine their fate.

LSU - 7-2 - remaining games - Arkansas, UAB, TAMU. They finish 10-2 & play UGA in SECCG.

UGA - 9-0 - remaining games - Miss State, KY, Ga Tech. They finish 12-0 & beat LSU in SECCG, opening the door for Tenn to be the 2nd team in then CFP - a now common situation.

A 13-0 SEC Champion UGA & a 13-0 Big 10 Champion obviously makes it in and IMO, so does 13-0 Big 12 Conference Champion (TCU)
If Clemson wins ACCCG; all the talk is about 12-1 ACC Champion Clemson & their bad (35-14) loss to ND & are they better or worse than an 11-1 SEC or Big 10 team ?

BUT
What if LSU beats UGA in SECCG.

Does 11-2 SEC champion LSU jump 12-1 Clemson & make the CFP ?

12-1 UGA makes it - as they did last year - but does 11-1 Tenn jump an 11-1 tOSU vs Mich loser ?

What about TCU ?
TCU - 9-0 - remaining games - @Texas 6-3, @Baylor 6-3, Home Iowa State 4-5.

This keeps Tenn & tOSU vs Mich loser out of CFP.

BUT
If TCU loses to Texas or Baylor, but wins the Big 12 Championship game, what happens ?

Purpose of playing the extra conference championship game is to reward conference winners - Selection Committees have stated this & acted upon it many times.

Does a 12-1 TCU keep 11-1 Tenn & 11-1 tOSU vs Mich loser out of CFP ?

Does a 12-1 Clemson keep 11-1 Tenn & 11-1 tOSU vs Mich loser out of CFP ?

Does the Selection Committee think the Big 12 & the ACC are equal in quality to the SEC & the Big 10 ?

I think that we will soon find out.
 
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Gator Fever

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I think if Bama stays at 2 losses LSU would get left out if it was between them and a 1 loss Tennessee team that beat LSU easily.
 

NavigatorII

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Dec 8, 2004
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They both get in. NO way in hell you leave the mighty SEC champs out. I dont give a damn what Tennessee has done. Tennessee needs TCU and Oregon to lose if LSU wins out.
LSU is NOT that good. Arky, who sucks on O, would have beaten them like a drum with a QB with a pulse. Props to the Arkansas defense though. They made Daniels look like a chump.
 

ocalaman

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Sep 4, 2002
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What If - LSU beats UGA in the SECCG ?

LOL
Georgia will be in regardless. Not sure what they do with LSU, but I can't imagine them leaving out the SEC champs while putting two others in, even though Tennessee did beat the crap out of the Tigers. Oregon just got beat by Washington so they're out. Could the UCLA/USC winner get in with 1 loss? Looking more & more like the Ohio State/Michigan winner, Georgia, TCU and then the #4 slot is up for grabs and a lot of behind the scenes politicking.
 

NavigatorII

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Dec 8, 2004
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Georgia will be in regardless. Not sure what they do with LSU, but I can't imagine them leaving out the SEC champs while putting two others in, even though Tennessee did beat the crap out of the Tigers. Oregon just got beat by Washington so they're out. Could the UCLA/USC winner get in with 1 loss? Looking more & more like the Ohio State/Michigan winner, Georgia, TCU and then the #4 slot is up for grabs and a lot of behind the scenes politicking.
I'm going to be in a real pickle rooting for the corn dogs and Kelly in the SEC championship (small c) game. :rolleyes: Guess they won't be playing any AFLAC commercials with Saban and Neon so we've got that going for us. 😂
 

TEBOW TIME

Rowdy Reptile
Dec 7, 2019
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Georgia will be in regardless. Not sure what they do with LSU, but I can't imagine them leaving out the SEC champs while putting two others in, even though Tennessee did beat the crap out of the Tigers. Oregon just got beat by Washington so they're out. Could the UCLA/USC winner get in with 1 loss? Looking more & more like the Ohio State/Michigan winner, Georgia, TCU and then the #4 slot is up for grabs and a lot of behind the scenes politicking.
No one wants to see the Georgia vs Tennessee massacre all over again. Everyone got tired of Georgia and Alabama playing every year. Conference champs should be in the final 4 if their record supports it.
 

Gator Fever

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They both get in. NO way in hell you leave the mighty SEC champs out. I dont give a damn what Tennessee has done. Tennessee needs TCU and Oregon to lose if LSU wins out.

I think LSU would be out if its down to them and Tennessee. They let 1 loss teams go over 2 loss Champs in the past even when they lost the head to head unlike this situation with LSU and Tennessee possibly.

I think this is the order of preference at the end as of now.

1. Georgia who will be in even with an SECCG loss
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. TCU if undefeated and likely out if not
4. USC with 1 loss and conference championship
5. Tennessee
6. LSU with 2 losses and the SEC championship and a 1 loss loser of the OSU/Michigan game is going to be a big argument. If the Big 10 didn't already have a team in I think they would take the 1 loss team but not sure with this situation and they might want to avoid 3 SEC teams being in also.
 

ocalaman

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I think LSU would be out if its down to them and Tennessee. They let 1 loss teams go over 2 loss Champs in the past even when they lost the head to head unlike this situation with LSU and Tennessee possibly.

I think this is the order of preference at the end as of now.

1. Georgia who will be in even with an SECCG loss
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. TCU if undefeated and likely out if not
4. USC with 1 loss and conference championship
5. Tennessee
6. LSU with 2 losses and the SEC championship and a 1 loss loser of the OSU/Michigan game is going to be a big argument. If the Big 10 didn't already have a team in I think they would take the 1 loss team but not sure with this situation and they might want to avoid 3 SEC teams being in also.
That 4th spot is going to be tricky, for sure, especially if TCU stays unbeaten. Tennessee finishes the season with South Carolina & Vandy, while LSU gets UAB, Texas A&M & Georgia. Right now the Vols SOS is #12, LSU #17. But if LSU wins out, their SOS will probably be better and I just can't see the committee putting 2 SEC teams in the playoffs while excluding the league champs. USC's SOS is currently #78, but they still play UCLA, Notre Dame and probably Washington. If they win all 3, their SOS would improve, but will it be enough to get them close to LSU or Tennessee? TCU's SOS is #63 and games vs. Baylor and Iowa State won't help very much. But if they win the Big 12 undefeated, they'll be in. If they lose a game, the Big 12 gets left out. The only other possibility would be if Michigan edges out Ohio State and wins out, would they put in a 1-loss Buckeye team over some other team, even though the Buckeye's SOS right now is only #47?
 
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Jeff from Jax

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I think LSU would be out if its down to them and Tennessee. They let 1 loss teams go over 2 loss Champs in the past even when they lost the head to head unlike this situation with LSU and Tennessee possibly.

I think this is the order of preference at the end as of now.

1. Georgia who will be in even with an SECCG loss
2. OSU/Michigan winner
3. TCU if undefeated and likely out if not
4. USC with 1 loss and conference championship
5. Tennessee
6. LSU with 2 losses and the SEC championship and a 1 loss loser of the OSU/Michigan game is going to be a big argument. If the Big 10 didn't already have a team in I think they would take the 1 loss team but not sure with this situation and they might want to avoid 3 SEC teams being in also.
Fever,

Like your thoughts !

See no chance for 3 SEC teams.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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If LSU gets into the CFP then the Vols should too.​

Farrell’s take: FACT​

I will die on this hill. The Vols destroyed LSU in Death Valley and it wasn’t even close. And the Vols will be 11-1 with a lone loss to Georgia. So if LSU runs the table and beats UGA in the SEC title game that’s great. Get them in the playoff even with two losses. But don’t leave the Vols out because they didn’t win their division or the SEC title. They are clearly the better team and their resume is better than LSU’s. Why? Because they hammered them.

Farrell has seemingly backed off from his 3 SEC teams going to the CFP; that article was basically BS on a slow CFB news day.

BUT
The famous What IF - LSU beats UGA - it Could happen, but I don't think so, then what do you do with two 1-loss teams (UGA & Tenn) & a 2-loss SEC champion ?

https://mikefarrellsports.com/fact-...d-tennessee-in-the-cfp-battle-for-los-angeles
 

PacoGator19

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So going back to what I said back on October 20th. You want a 12 team playoff?? Why? There isn’t 12 good teams nor will there ever be 12 good teams. It’s all about money which is unfortunate that CFB has basically become the NFL where you have this and NIL, etc. Maybe the 12 team playoff will even the playing field a bit but not sure about that either.
 
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ocalaman

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Sep 4, 2002
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So going back to what I said back on October 20th. You want a 12 team playoff?? Why? There isn’t 12 good teams nor will there ever be 12 good teams. It’s all about money which is unfortunate that CFB has basically become the NFL where you have this and NIL, etc. Maybe the 12 team playoff will even the playing field a bit but not sure about that either.
I've been watching the smaller college playoffs, especially what is now called FCS, ever since they started televising games and always enjoyed them. The idea of brackets and elimination games every week just appeals to me. It still usually comes down to the 2 best teams, but it's fun to watch how they get there and see some upsets along the way, with more teams at least getting an opportunity.
 
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Gator Fever

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Pecking order now if these teams were to win out.

1. Georgia (in regardless)
2. OSU-MI winner
3. TCU
4. USC
5. LSU/ an OSU that lost a close game to MI.
7. Clemson

If it comes down LSU/OSU for a spot and ND was to beat USC I could see the committee based on their past actions putting a 1 loss OSU in over a 2 loss LSU. The scenario would be similar to when 2 loss Big 10 champ OSU was left out in favor of 1 loss non-conference champ Bama that year.
 

Jeff from Jax

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If LSU gets into the CFP then the Vols should too.

Farrell’s take: FACT


Exposed by USCe ! LOL

Farrell obviously an "expert at large" with no insights into top teams / winning games.

He should stick to recruiting where he is at least mediocre.
 

Countygator1

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So going back to what I said back on October 20th. You want a 12 team playoff?? Why? There isn’t 12 good teams nor will there ever be 12 good teams. It’s all about money which is unfortunate that CFB has basically become the NFL where you have this and NIL, etc. Maybe the 12 team playoff will even the playing field a bit but not sure about that either.
This season has shown us that there are no elite teams, which in my opinion is every reason why you should expand the playoffs. Dawgs should've lost to Mizzou and the Cats gave them all they wanted yesterday. SEC is the poster child this season for expansion...Vols clock LSU at LSU and then get mauled by SC...OSU, TCU, Michigan, all of the pac 12 teams are very very beatable.
 

Gator Fever

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This playoff predictor spits out some crazy stuff that shows they didn't try to put some common sense into the program.

The craziest mess first: It says USC only has a 43% chance to get in if they don't lose another game while Clemson has a 44% chance to get in if they don't lose another game. The reality is USC is a 100% lock to get in if they don't lose another game while Clemson will need help.

It says TCU is only a 94% chance to get in undefeated while we know its actually 100%.

It say OSU has an 87% chance to get in even with a loss to Michigan. The only way that is close is if you consider it that likely Georgia beats LSU though I do agree there is a good chance a 1 loss OSU may go over a 2 loss LSU.

It says Michigan has a 75% chance to make the playoff with a loss to OSU which is way too high imo. Even If LSU lost to GA and other things happened I still think a 1 loss conference champ Clemson would get the nod over Michigan due to Michigan's weak schedule.
 

Gator Fever

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My Bama buddy is calling for the Tide to make the CFP. Says that even with 2 losses they are clearly one of the best 4 teams. He said Clemson is already eliminated and loser of OSU Michigan would be eliminated. Bama arrogance on full display

Yep that is crazy if he believes that. USC, Clemson, LSU and TCU would all have to lose for them to have a shot and even then a 1 loss TCU might have the better argument at the end considering Bama's wins resume isn't that good at all and they would have 2 losses unlike a 1 loss TCU.
 

goldmom

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My Bama buddy is calling for the Tide to make the CFP. Says that even with 2 losses they are clearly one of the best 4 teams. He said Clemson is already eliminated and loser of OSU Michigan would be eliminated. Bama arrogance on full display
Bad batch of moonshine?
 
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