Thoughts on CFP Teams

Jeff from Jax

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College Football Playoff projections after Week 7​

https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/lists/college-football-playoffs-week-7-projections-georgia-ohio-state-tennessee-clemson-tigers/

Since UGA & Tenn have a game coming up 11/4/22 - Vols are Between the Hedges for an 8 pm night game - don't see both of them in the CFP.

IMO; Vols have to win out to make the CFP; UGA as defending NC might
get in with 1 loss - but. IMO, it would have to be in the SECCG. Don't think Dawgs could lose to Tenn, sit on the sidelines for SECCG, & then make it ino CFP.

IMO, only way for Ole Miss, 7-0, to make into the CFP is to beat both Bama & SEC-East winner (UGA ?); a 1 loss Ole Miss has no chance for CFP.

tOSU plays Penn St Oct 29, but Michigan's 41-17 beatdown of Penn ST makes me think tOSU will beat them as well & then cruise to the game with Michigan.

Michigan - no competition - until they play tOSU Nov 26th; while I don't see both of them in the CFP, it could happen if enough other teams get beat & look bad.
No other Big 10 team has a chance.

IMO, for either TCU (Big 12) - 6-0 or UCLA (Pac 12) - 6-0 to have a chance, they need to not just stay unbeaten, but to win convincingly, & hope teams ahead of them lose.
Neither of those conferences has a chance for a 1 loss team to get into CFP.

Clemson currently 7-0 & #5 in AP plays Syrcause 6-0 AP#14 at home this saturday; beat Syracuse (no other quality teams left on schedule) & Clemson will probably slide into the CFP.
As Bobbie Bowden found out there is a distinct advantage to being the big frog in the ACC puddle & only having to get up for 1 or 2 games.

As always, it comes down to what happens in the SEC.
 
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Jeff from Jax

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No dominate team this year. This year is a prime example why the playoffs should be expanded.
Country,

Agree on no dominate team this year & limited expansion of CFP; but IMO, 12 teams way too many for CFP.

There are 129 FBS TEAMS (D1-A) so 12 teams is 9.3% of the total.

Next thing you know, CFB will be like the NBA & half of all teams will be in the playoffs & the playoff season will be as long as the regular season; & conference titles will be meaningless.

Go to 6 teams - 5 major conference champions (PAC 12 is saved); 1 wildcard; top 2 teams get a Bye - generating plenty of "discussion" on who are the top 2 teams.

Teams with the Bye, play the winners of 1st round games.

This extends the playoffs by 1 game; hopefully only 1 extra week.
 
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PacoGator19

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12 teams is way too many for a playoff. There isn’t even 12 good teams. This decision is all about money as usual.
 
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Countygator1

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With NIL, conference realignments, etc college is becoming more like NFL...its about matchups. Last season is a great example. Ohio St gets shut out of the playoffs due to Michigan loss in the snow and wind on the road. However, that OSU offense inside a dome would have lit up both Georgia and Bama's defenses. No question its about money, but to say there aren't 12 good teams then I would say there isn't one good team.
 

PacoGator19

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With NIL, conference realignments, etc college is becoming more like NFL...its about matchups. Last season is a great example. Ohio St gets shut out of the playoffs due to Michigan loss in the snow and wind on the road. However, that OSU offense inside a dome would have lit up both Georgia and Bama's defenses. No question its about money, but to say there aren't 12 good teams then I would say there isn't one good team.
Oregon is currently ranked 9th in the country. That would put them as one of the top 12 teams. How did they do against UGA? There will be more and more examples of this as we move through the season.
As we get further into the season there is going to be less and less teams that would be deserving as a “playoff” team in a 12 team playoff.
 
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sadgator

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Oregon is currently ranked 9th in the country. That would put them as one of the top 12 teams. How did they do against UGA? There will be more and more examples of this as we move through the season.
As we get further into the season there is going to be less and less teams that would be deserving as a “playoff” team in a 12 team playoff.
Respectfully disagree. Oregon isn’t the same team they were in Week 1. That loss shouldn’t eliminate them from anything. They won’t make a 4 team playoff, but would in a 12, which would actually make their regular season MORE meaningful. They have a huge game against UCLA that would be even bigger if a 12 team spot was on the line.

As it is, they wont have a chance to demonstrate recovery from that week 1 loss…

If they played UGA again, the result might be the same, but sadgator would rather see it than to have to rely on what he THINKS might happen…
 

Countygator1

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Oregon is currently ranked 9th in the country. That would put them as one of the top 12 teams. How did they do against UGA? There will be more and more examples of this as we move through the season.
As we get further into the season there is going to be less and less teams that would be deserving as a “playoff” team in a 12 team playoff.
Oregon's first game under a new coach playing at Georgia. I'm betting they would do much better end of the year at a neutral site. The point being lots of teams with 1 or 2 losses that in the right one game matchups could win a playoff. Either expand the playoffs or just go back to the old bowl system and let the AP writers decide.
 

Countygator1

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Respectfully disagree. Oregon isn’t the same team they were in Week 1. That loss shouldn’t eliminate them from anything. They won’t make a 4 team playoff, but would in a 12, which would actually make their regular season MORE meaningful. They have a huge game against UCLA that would be even bigger if a 12 team spot was on the line.

As it is, they wont have a chance to demonstrate recovery from that week 1 loss…

If they played UGA again, the result might be the same, but sadgator would rather see it than to have to rely on what he THINKS might happen…
Agreed
 

Nicktheslick

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Country,

Agree on no dominate team this year & limited expansion of CFP; but IMO, 12 teams way too many for CFP.

There are 129 FBS TEAMS (D1-A) so 12 teams is 9.3% of the total.

Next thing you know, CFB will be like the NBA & half of all teams will be in the playoffs & the playoff season will be as long as the regular season; & conference titles will be meaningless.

Go to 6 teams - 5 major conference champions (PAC 12 is saved); 1 wildcard; top 2 teams get a by - generating plenty of "discussion" on who are the top 2 teams.

Teams with the by play the winners of 1st round games.

This extends the playoffs by 1 game; hopefully only 1 extra week.
Jeff
Your analysis on the contenders is spot on. However the discussion on the playoffs is now a dead fish. Twelve teams it is.
 

GwinnettDawg

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College Football Playoff projections after Week 7​

https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/lists/college-football-playoffs-week-7-projections-georgia-ohio-state-tennessee-clemson-tigers/

Since UGA & Tenn have a game coming up 11/4/22 - Vols are Between the Hedges for an 8 pm night game - don't see both of them in the CFP.

IMO; Vols have to win out to make the CFP; UGA as defending NC might
get in with 1 loss - but. IMO, it would have to be in the SECCG. Don't think Dawgs could lose to Tenn, sit on the sidelines for SECCG, & then make it ino CFP.

IMO, only way for Ole Miss, 7-0, to make into the CFP is to beat both Bama & SEC-East winner (UGA ?); a 1 loss Ole Miss has no chance for CFP.

tOSU plays Penn St Oct 29, but Michigan's 41-17 beatdown of Penn ST makes me think tOSU will beat them as well & then cruise to the game with Michigan.

Michigan - no competition - until they play tOSU Nov 26th; while I don't see both of them in the CFP, it could happen if enough other teams get beat & look bad.
No other Big 10 team has a chance.

IMO, for either TCU (Big 12) - 6-0 or UCLA (Pac 12) - 6-0 to have a chance, they need to not just stay unbeaten, but to win convincingly, & hope teams ahead of them lose.
Neither of those conferences has a chance for a 1 loss team to get into CFP.

Clemson currently 7-0 & #5 in AP plays Syrcause 6-0 AP#14 at home this saturday; beat Syracuse (no other quality teams left on schedule) & Clemson will probably slide into the CFP.
As Bobbie Bowden found out there is a distinct advantage to being the big frog in the ACC puddle & only having to get up for 1 or 2 games.

As always, it comes down to what happens in the SEC.
Ga-tn is almost certainly going to be the 3:30 cbs game.
 

KingofHedgehogs

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Oregon is currently ranked 9th in the country. That would put them as one of the top 12 teams. How did they do against UGA? There will be more and more examples of this as we move through the season.
As we get further into the season there is going to be less and less teams that would be deserving as a “playoff” team in a 12 team playoff.

Maybe Oregon would get creamed again against UGA.....or maybe Oregon might win. It might sound ridicolous, but considering how UGA has shown weakness against Kent State and Mizzou, I don't think the outcome is such a forgone conclusion.

Even UGA struggled with a 5 win UF last year untill 1 minute or so before the half.....when UF started shooting themselves in the foot with bad decisions(coaching) and turnovers giving them 21 unanswered points. Instead of going into the half losing by 4 points.....the game was over.

Georgia has the ability to crush everybody.....and the ability to play down to their opponent's level.

Even in basketball it's not uncommon nowadays for a seed in the top 5 to lose to à seed in the 10-15 range.

Even if that #9-12 ranked team gets knocked out....it doesn't mean that it can't be a close game, even closer than the scores of many top 4 teams against each other.

The last thing to consider, untill UF takes that step into Alabama and UGA territory....its hugely beneficial to be #12 and get the attention of being included in a playoff for recruiting's sake.

A 12 team playoff would have been more beneficial than not to UF over the past 13 years and who knows how many more years in the future.
 
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KingofHedgehogs

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Country,

Agree on no dominate team this year & limited expansion of CFP; but IMO, 12 teams way too many for CFP.

There are 129 FBS TEAMS (D1-A) so 12 teams is 9.3% of the total.

Next thing you know, CFB will be like the NBA & half of all teams will be in the playoffs & the playoff season will be as long as the regular season; & conference titles will be meaningless.

Go to 6 teams - 5 major conference champions (PAC 12 is saved); 1 wildcard; top 2 teams get a by - generating plenty of "discussion" on who are the top 2 teams.

Teams with the by play the winners of 1st round games.

This extends the playoffs by 1 game; hopefully only 1 extra week.

It seems like a lot and I wouldn't do more than 12 teams.....but as for the 9.3%....there's almost twice that percentage in the college basketball tourney and nobody complains about it.

Let's be honest, We've wanted Notre Dame(or teams like them) to be far away from being in the last 2 games of the year many times....now there's an opportunity to help that from happening

Even the #12 ranked team who gets knocked out of the playoff first will benefit more in the long run than à #12 team winning a meaningless bowl game. ......because recruits will pay extra attention to playoff teams.

As I said before, untill UF reaches the level that Bama and UGA has, we should take advantage of every opportunity that will help us get there. A 12 team playoff can help UF.
 
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Gator Fever

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College Football Playoff projections after Week 7​

https://clemsonwire.usatoday.com/lists/college-football-playoffs-week-7-projections-georgia-ohio-state-tennessee-clemson-tigers/

Since UGA & Tenn have a game coming up 11/4/22 - Vols are Between the Hedges for an 8 pm night game - don't see both of them in the CFP.

IMO; Vols have to win out to make the CFP; UGA as defending NC might
get in with 1 loss - but. IMO, it would have to be in the SECCG. Don't think Dawgs could lose to Tenn, sit on the sidelines for SECCG, & then make it ino CFP.

IMO, only way for Ole Miss, 7-0, to make into the CFP is to beat both Bama & SEC-East winner (UGA ?); a 1 loss Ole Miss has no chance for CFP.

tOSU plays Penn St Oct 29, but Michigan's 41-17 beatdown of Penn ST makes me think tOSU will beat them as well & then cruise to the game with Michigan.

Michigan - no competition - until they play tOSU Nov 26th; while I don't see both of them in the CFP, it could happen if enough other teams get beat & look bad.
No other Big 10 team has a chance.

IMO, for either TCU (Big 12) - 6-0 or UCLA (Pac 12) - 6-0 to have a chance, they need to not just stay unbeaten, but to win convincingly, & hope teams ahead of them lose.
Neither of those conferences has a chance for a 1 loss team to get into CFP.

Clemson currently 7-0 & #5 in AP plays Syrcause 6-0 AP#14 at home this saturday; beat Syracuse (no other quality teams left on schedule) & Clemson will probably slide into the CFP.
As Bobbie Bowden found out there is a distinct advantage to being the big frog in the ACC puddle & only having to get up for 1 or 2 games.

As always, it comes down to what happens in the SEC.

I think the committee will keep their history up and not let a 1 loss power 5 champ be kept out by a 1 loss non-power 5 champ.
 
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LizardGrad89

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Country,

Agree on no dominate team this year & limited expansion of CFP; but IMO, 12 teams way too many for CFP.

There are 129 FBS TEAMS (D1-A) so 12 teams is 9.3% of the total.

Next thing you know, CFB will be like the NBA & half of all teams will be in the playoffs & the playoff season will be as long as the regular season; & conference titles will be meaningless.

Go to 6 teams - 5 major conference champions (PAC 12 is saved); 1 wildcard; top 2 teams get a by - generating plenty of "discussion" on who are the top 2 teams.

Teams with the by play the winners of 1st round games.

This extends the playoffs by 1 game; hopefully only 1 extra week.
If NBA/NFL/MLB had a 9.3% playoff participation, they would have a 3 team playoff. Just sayin'.

I think 12 is fine, probably should be 16. Why? Because the landscape has changed in CFB. NIL now allows everybody to buy players, it's no longer just the 4-5 teams the NCAA allowed to flaunt the rules and buy the best players that play for the titles. Also, a 16 team playoff gives at least 40 teams a legitimate recruiting pitch that at some time during a player's 4 year career they will be playing games late in the year for a chance to go to the playoffs. Even a 12 team playoff gives 30 teams that pitch. Between these two changes, we are going to see a wider spread of the talent pool and greater parity. So the argument that you will have blowouts in the early rounds because the teams aren't good will not be accurate. Or rather, there will be some blowouts, because there are always some, but it won't be automatic. There will also be some really good games.

One other impact of this will be that coaching tenures will increase. A coach that makes the 16 team playoffs once every 2-4 years will be much less likely to be quickly canned for lack of success. This will lead to greater program stability, and stable programs turn out better quality football, so the game itself will be more enjoyable to watch.

As to the idea that it will make the regular season meaningless, that's ridiculous. It will make the regular season far more meaningful. Where is the drama of the top 6 teams all squatting like toads on top of the polls every year, and only a tremendous upset could upset the apple cart? There is very little. Compare that to a dozen games on Thanksgiving weekend that will determine who makes the playoffs. Really, which is more dramatic, end of the year college football, where maybe (if we are lucky) there is one titanic game, like UF-FSU used to be, or the NFL, where a dozen teams are all still on the cusp of the playoffs and fighting to get in?
 

Gator Fever

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Even though you get more playoff blowouts I like 12 teams better than 4 though I think 8 teams was probably the best number. The one thing 12 does is assure a 2 loss SEC team gets in (3 losses probably if one is the SECCG) which means you are alive for a spot much of the season in most good years.
 

Jeff from Jax

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Jeff
Your analysis on the contenders is spot on. However the discussion on the playoffs is now a dead fish. Twelve teams it is.
Nick,

See your point but nothing is constant but change; right now we have only 4 teams - but that was changed.

The 12 teams solution may be subject to further review.

If not we will live with it for a while & then change it.
LOL

Also, several posters in this thread advanced points I had not considered. Though it extends the season for several weeks; I now accept that a 12 team CFP is not a total screw up.
 
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Dr. Curmudgeon

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Even though you get more playoff blowouts I like 12 teams better than 4 though I think 8 teams was probably the best number. The one thing 12 does is assure a 2 loss SEC team gets in (3 losses probably if one is the SECCG) which means you are alive for a spot much of the season in most good years.
It is insane for only 4 teams out of 130 to play for the national championship.
 

Michi_Gator

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It is insane for only 4 teams out of 130 to play for the national championship.

last year they couldn’t even find a quality 4th

the problem is college football will never have a true quality playoff because they refuse to put the best 4,8, 12 in. It’s ridiculous, football isn’t basketball, the Cinderella upsets aren’t happening when guys like Saban get 5 weeks to prep
 

TEBOW TIME

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I guess at this point they figure Ohio State's overall wins are better than Georgia's win over Oregon.
I hope Georgia is pissed about being #3 and runs Tennessee off the field Saturday. What happens if LSU some how won out the rest of the year and won the SEC championship game?
 
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Michi_Gator

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How is Clemson in the top 8, let alone top 4?

i hate Michigan but they would boat race Clemson
 

Gator Fever

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I hope Georgia is pissed about being #3 and runs Tennessee off the field Saturday. What happens if LSU some how won out the rest of the year and won the SEC championship game?

It would get interesting. So far they have always went with the 1 loss highest ranked team but Auburn that one year with 2 losses was probably going to be allowed in if they had beat Georgia in the SECCG.
 

Gator Fever

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Here's a pretty good analysis from ESPN.com.

It does almost seem like they are setting the stage ahead of time to possibly screw a 1 loss TCU Big 12 champ. If a 1 loss Bama wins the SECCG it would probably be better for TCU if Georgia lost to Tennessee and that Oregon loses another game at least. Georgia's wins resume wont look that great then but will they let being defending champion affect their rankings. The other conferences probably won't let a 3rd SEC team in either.
 

Gator Fever

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Its Simple !

Win and you’re in.

That should be the message for any college football coach whose team is ranked in the top seven of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, released Tuesday. If any of those teams win out, they will be in the playoff.

No ifs, ands or buts.

What happens if 1 loss Bama beats an undefeated Georgia in the SECCG, Clemson wins out, the OSU-MI winner is undefeated and TCU wins out?

The scenario where 2 things people said wouldn't happen. An undefeated power 5 champ being left out or a 1 loss (only in the SECCG) defending SEC/National champ being left out?
 
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ocalaman

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What happens if 1 loss Bama beats an undefeated Georgia in the SECCG, Clemson wins out, the OSU-MI winner is undefeated and TCU wins out?

The scenario where 2 things people said wouldn't happen. An undefeated power 5 champ being left out or a 1 loss (only in the SECCG) defending SEC/National champ being left out?
TCU doesn't make it in that scenario.
 

Gator Fever

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TCU doesn't make it in that scenario.

I think TCU might make it in that scenario but this is the better scenario and the one I think they would screw an undefeated TCU:

Tennessee with wins over Bama and Georgia loses to Bama in the SECCG. I think with those 2 big wins and the rest of the schedule they probably screw an undefeated TCU.
 

Jeff from Jax

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What happens if 1 loss Bama beats an undefeated Georgia in the SECCG, Clemson wins out, the OSU-MI winner is undefeated and TCU wins out?

The scenario where 2 things people said wouldn't happen. An undefeated power 5 champ being left out or a 1 loss (only in the SECCG) defending SEC/National champ being left out?
Fever,

Unbeaten OSU-MI winner gets in.

Unbeaten Clemson, starting from #4 gets in.

1 loss SEC Champion Bama gets in.

If they tried to keep Bama out, Saban would fire the CFP committee & the State of Alabama Suprem Court would uphold that decision.

1 loss & defending NC UGA takes the same path to the CFP they took last year.

IMO & I believe many CFP voters, TCU would NOT go unbeaten in the SEC or the B1G; so -

TCU gets screwed !

Problem solved !
 
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Gator Fever

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Fever,

Unbeaten OSU-MI winner gets in.

Unbeaten Clemson, starting from #4 gets in.

1 loss SEC Champion Bama gets in.

If they tried to keep Bama out, Saban would fire the CFP committee & the State of Alabama Suprem Court would uphold that decision.

1 loss & defending NC UGA takes the same path to the CFP they took last year.

IMO & I believe many CFP voters, TCU would NOT go unbeaten in the SEC or the B1G; so -

TCU gets screwed !

Problem solved !

How in the heck can an undefeated power 5 champ be left out? Also the committee is mostly non-SEC so that may come into their thinking when they see an undefeated power 5 champ would be left out to an SEC team that isn't undefeated and lost their conference. I think Tennessee losing to Bama would have a lot better argument than Georgia to go over TCU. I almost hope one of these scenarios happen to watch it unfold. I am sure due to the TV contracts ESPN will push the 2nd SEC team.
 

Jeff from Jax

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I think Tennessee losing to Bama would have a lot better argument than Georgia to go over TCU. I almost hope one of these scenarios happen to watch it unfold. I am sure due to the TV contracts ESPN will push the 2nd SEC team.
Fever,

That wasn't in your original scenario.

The 3 one loss SEC teams & OSO-Mi winner get in.

Even better - both Clemson AND TCU get screwed !

This way 2 unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champs get B*t*ch Slapped by the SEC !

If we could work an unbeaten PAC12 Champ into the mix; then the SEC could laugh at all three of them !
 
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Jeff from Jax

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What if LSU wins out and wins the SEC championship game?
Tebow,

Never say never ! It could happen. Brian Kelly a good coach.

Assuming you forsee TCU, Clemson, & winner of OSU-MI as unbeaten conference champions.

Bama & LSU would have 2 losses; Tenn & UGA 1 loss each.

LSU starting from 10th in the first CFP poll makes it difficult.

They would have to beat Bama, Arkansas, UAB, & TAMU to make the SECCG. They would only have 1 SEC loss - Tenn.

LSU plays Bama next week; beating Bama would advance LSU in the CFP & drop Bama from CFP.

The rest of LSU's schedule - IMO, beating Arkansas, UAB, & TAMU would be expected & would not do much for them in the CFP.

If Tenn beats UGA, makes it to the SECCG, & then loses to LSU - they will have equal SEC records (1 SEC loss) & will have split the 2 games between them - but don't see both of them making CFP.

For LSU, the problem is the FSU debacle in the first game of the season. FSU may beat us; but it still doesn't make them a good team by CFP standards.

With Tenn ranked #1 in the current CFP & all the glowing verbage the CFP Selection Committe has given them; I would expect a 1 loss Tenn to get the nod over a 2 loss LSU & join TCU, Clemson, & OSU-MI winner in the CFP.

If UGA makes it to SECCG & losses to LSU, it makes a difference since UGA did not play & beat LSU in regular season. I think LSU gets into the CFP.

Needless to say, I could be wrong about which SEC team gets in.

8-0 TCU currently behind 7-1 Bama, so Style Points, Strength of Schedule, (ie - perceived strength of the conference) could make a difference in whether or not TCU gets in.

I don't see two SEC teams getting into the CFP if a 2 loss LSU wins the SECCG.

For a WILD What IF -

TCU gets shut out - Clemson & 2 loss LSU as SEC Champion join OSU AND MI in the CFP.
 
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Gator Fever

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What if LSU wins out and wins the SEC championship game?

That would be a crazy one also but I don't see how the committee can leave out a 1 loss power 5 champ while letting LSU in. You might have the same Georgia and Tenn arguments again. The committee better hope the regular season takes care of most of this.
 
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