By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:
“My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives” – Hedley Lamarr from “Blazing Saddles”
A MIND IS A TERRIBLE THING TO BASTE, PART DEUX
1.A winning season begins here … : In 2021, the Gators allowed opponents 70 running plays that gained more than 10 yards, which ranked 10th in the Southeastern Conference and tied the Gators for 93rdnationally. The Gators gave up 20 opponent carries that gained 20 or more yards. That ranked 12th in the SEC, 98th nationally. Ten opponent running plays went for 30 or more yards. That’s 13th in the SEC and 97thnationally.
By contrast, Georgia and Alabama ranked 1-2 in fewest running plays of 10-20 or 30 or more yards. They also played for both the Southeastern Conference and national championships. Florida, meanwhile, went 6-7. Just two years earlier, the Gators were a top ten team nationally against the run (8th, 102.77 yards per game; 3.19 per carry) and in fewest big plays allowed on the ground (7th, 41 plays of 10 or more yards, 14 for 20 or more). That Florida defense ranked 9th in total defense nationally (304.8 yards per game).
There aren’t enough fingers of blame to point to everyone and everything responsible for the Gators inability to stop the run. Personnel had something to do with it. Scheme maybe even more. Coaching? Certainly.
We hear that old adage that good defense begins with stopping the run all too often when we listen to commentators and coaches but it’s true. Florida’s 2006 national championship team allowed only 72.5 yards per game on the ground and just 2.7 per carry. The 2008 national championship team gave up 105.4 on the ground and just 3.4 per carry.
For the Gators to be anything more than .500 or a game above in 2022, it begins with stopping the run and holding opponents to 120 or fewer yards per game.
2. Sankey should throw out the first ball at the CWS today: They have arrived at the final four of the College World Series and it should come as no surprise that the last four teams standing are current SEC members Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M along with future SEC member Oklahoma. That means the College World Series champ this year will either be an existing SEC member or one that will be joining the league most likely in 2024.
SEC commish Greg Sankey is in Omaha. He should do the honors of throwing out the first pitch today when No. 5 seed Texas A&M faces Oklahoma (2 p.m.) and Ole Miss and Arkansas square off at 7 p.m.
Texas A&M (47-19) lived to play another day Tuesday with a 5-1 loser go home win over Notre Dame, a game that has Florida State fans wondering if Link Jarrett will bolt South Bend to return to his Tallahassee roots. To make the championship round of the CWS, the Aggies have to beat Oklahoma twice. Oklahoma beat the Aggies, 13-8, in the first game of the College World Series.
Arkansas (48-21) avoided a bus ride back to Fayette Nam Tuesday night when they put an 11-1 whipping on 14th-seeded Auburn (46-22), ending the Tigers’ season. The Razorbacks, who lost to Ole Miss, 13-5, Monday night, have to beat the Rebels twice to make the CWS championship round.
3. Scheduling in a 16-team SEC: Get used to an end to divisions in both football and baseball. Basketball eliminated divisions a few years ago, and while scheduling for 14 teams has proven inefficient and quite awkward, the SEC has survived just fine. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma will actually make scheduling easier in all three sports.
Football: It is going to be a 3-6 format with three permanent opponents. There have been some holdouts for an 8-game schedule because nine conference games will eliminate a paycheck game that can make the difference in bowl eligibility. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey prefers the 3-6 model because it will ensure every team in the league will do a home and home with every other team in the league at least every four years. This is also the model that ESPN prefers and since they’re guaranteeing a $17 million raise from the current contract with CBS, what ESPN wants ESPN will get. The only question is who will be the permanent three opponents for every team?
Instead of division champs meeting in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, it will be the two teams with the best records. This, again, is favored by Sankey there won’t be a fluke year when a 7-5 divisional champ gets to Atlanta where it springs an upset. With the College Football Playoff likely to wind up the original model Sankey presented last summer – six highest ranked conference champs, six at large – you could bet the farm that the SEC champ would always be one of the six highest ranked conference titles, something you couldn’t do if a 7-5 team sprung the upset in Atlanta.
Basketball: Basketball is expected to stay with the 18-game schedule but we’ll probably double football’s 3-6 format with home and home arrangements. Just like football, it ensures every team in the league will be playing home and home every four years.
Baseball: Baseball currently operates with divisions and 10 3-game weekends. The 10 3-game weekends will continue, but it will most likely be under a 5-5 format with five permanent opponents. Every team in the league will play home and home at least once every four years.
4. What the SEC gets with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league: There is the obvious, which is the 11 national championships in football (Texas 4, Oklahoma 7) they bring, but it goes well beyond football. The Director’s Cup standings is a nice indicator. Texas has won the 2021-22 Director’s Cup while Oklahoma currently ranks 12th. Florida finished fifth, the highest of any current SEC school. Oklahoma could score the maximum 100 points if it wins the College World Series, which would the Sooners into 9th place. They’re in the final four of the CWS so they will move past Virginia and Southern Cal into 10th even if they don’t make it to the championship series.
The SEC has already won national championships this year in football (Georgia), women’s basketball (South Carolina), women’s indoor track and field (Florida), rifle (Kentucky), men’s outdoor track and field (Florida) and women’s outdoor track and field (Florida). Texas won national championships this year in men’s indoor track and field, men’s golf and women’s tennis. Oklahoma won national championships in gymnastics and softball. Since the final four teams in baseball are current SEC members Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas plus future SEC member Oklahoma, it means 12 national championships for this sports year for current or future SEC members.
Additionally, Texas finished runner-up in both men’s and women’s swimming and women’s indoor track and field.
COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY EARLY SUMMER EDITION
On Life Support
Bryan Harsin, Auburn: They tried to fire him after he went 6-6 in 2022. If Tank Bigsby had remembered to stay in bounds, he would have beaten Alabama and would have been given a contract extension. He’s not a good fit but at least Bo Nix own’t be his QB this year. Anything less than eight wins and he can make reservations with U-Haul.
Dino Babers, Syracuse: He went 1-10 in 2020 but improved to 5-7 last year. If he doesn’t get to a bowl game, he’s a goner. He has a 4-game gauntlet of North Carolina State, at Clemson, Notre Dame and at Pitt that probably determines whether he’s staying or going.
Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech: He’s 9-25, his best player (Jahmyr Gibbs) transferred to Alabama and he opens the season with Clemson. After a paycheck game, he has Ole Miss, at UCF and at Pitt. Miami is on the schedule. So is Georgia.
Scot Loefler, Bowling Green: Lefty is 7-22 in three years. Three of the first four games are at UCLA, Marshall and at Mississippi State. There isn’t much chance he recovers.
Mike Bloomgren, Rice: He is 11-31 in four years. Three of the first four games are at Southern Cal, Louisiana and at Houston. The find firing coaches distasteful at Rice so he will last until the end of the year.
Jake Spavital, Texas State: Progress was made last year – four wins – but the folks in San Marcos are quite envious of their country cousins in San Antonio where UTSA blew up and went 12-2 last year. Texas State folks think if that’s possible at UTSA, then why not here? Jake is 9-27 in three years. He needs six this year. Baylor is the only guaranteed loss on the schedule.
Endangered Species List
Mike Norvell, Florida State: He is 8-13 in two seasons, which has extended the non-bowl streak to five years for the Seminoles. Duquesne – I didn’t know they play football – so the Seminoles will win one game for sure. Among the more daunting games on the rest of the schedule: LSU (in New Orleans), Wake Forest Gump, at North Carolina State, Clemson, at Miami and Florida. That looks like 5-7 or 6-6. If he’s coaching at FSU next year, it could have everything to do with a monstrous buyout.
Marcus Arroyo, UNLV: The schedule isn’t all that bad. The only surefire losses are at California, at San Diego State, Air Force, at Notre Dame and at San Diego State. Arroyo is 2-16 in two seasons. They won’t fire him if he can get to four or five wins.
Scott Frost, Nebraska: He spent all last year On Life Support, but got a reprieve year, which could salvage his career. If he goes 5-1 out of the chute – entirely possible since the only game he definitely loses will be Oklahoma on September 17 – a 7-5 or better record is likely. In the second half of the season, Michigan is the only surefire loss on the schedule.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: He’s 17-17 in three years but they expect much better. He’s staking his job on JT Daniels, which may not be the brightest thing to do. He has to play at Pittsburgh, at Virginia Tech, at Texas, at Iowa State and at Oklahoma State. He also has to play Oklahoma. That has six losses written all over it and 6-6 isn’t going to save his job.
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders went 7-6 last year and won the Bahamas Bowl, which was viewed by at least 1,000 people in Nassau and maybe 50,000 football-starved souls back in the US. Stockstill is 100-98 in his career which means he’s typically good for a break-even year. Folks in Murfreesboro are weary of break even. He needs eight wins before MTSU goes into football purgatory with the remnants of Conference USA in 2023.
Phil Montgomery, Tulsa: He’s just good enough to stay one step ahead of the pink slip. One of these days they’ll fire him. One of these days could be this year. Phil is 37-46 in seven years on the job.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Sporting News has come up with its preseason top 25 teams and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Gators aren’t included. The Gators probably aren’t as bad as some would have us believe and at this point in time, at least, they aren’t as good as some wishful fans think they should be. Consider the Gators a work in progress. If they can somehow get through September (Utah, Kentucky, South Florida at home, Tennessee on the road), then we have reason to believe they were undervalued from day one. Until then, patience Grasshopper.
Sporting News preseason top 25: 1. Alabama; 2. Ohio State; 3. Georgia; 4. Clemson; 5. Texas A&M; 6. Michigan; 7. Notre Dame; 8. Utah; 9. Oregon; 10. Baylor; 11. Oklahoma; 12. Oklahoma State; 13. Michigan State; 14. Southern Cal; 15. Arkansas; 16. Ole Miss; 17. Kentucky; 18. Wake Forest; 19. North Carolina State; 20. Iowa; 21. Pittsburgh; 22. Cincinnati; 23. Houston; 24. Tennessee; 25. Texas
A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:
“My mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives” – Hedley Lamarr from “Blazing Saddles”
A MIND IS A TERRIBLE THING TO BASTE, PART DEUX
1.A winning season begins here … : In 2021, the Gators allowed opponents 70 running plays that gained more than 10 yards, which ranked 10th in the Southeastern Conference and tied the Gators for 93rdnationally. The Gators gave up 20 opponent carries that gained 20 or more yards. That ranked 12th in the SEC, 98th nationally. Ten opponent running plays went for 30 or more yards. That’s 13th in the SEC and 97thnationally.
By contrast, Georgia and Alabama ranked 1-2 in fewest running plays of 10-20 or 30 or more yards. They also played for both the Southeastern Conference and national championships. Florida, meanwhile, went 6-7. Just two years earlier, the Gators were a top ten team nationally against the run (8th, 102.77 yards per game; 3.19 per carry) and in fewest big plays allowed on the ground (7th, 41 plays of 10 or more yards, 14 for 20 or more). That Florida defense ranked 9th in total defense nationally (304.8 yards per game).
There aren’t enough fingers of blame to point to everyone and everything responsible for the Gators inability to stop the run. Personnel had something to do with it. Scheme maybe even more. Coaching? Certainly.
We hear that old adage that good defense begins with stopping the run all too often when we listen to commentators and coaches but it’s true. Florida’s 2006 national championship team allowed only 72.5 yards per game on the ground and just 2.7 per carry. The 2008 national championship team gave up 105.4 on the ground and just 3.4 per carry.
For the Gators to be anything more than .500 or a game above in 2022, it begins with stopping the run and holding opponents to 120 or fewer yards per game.
2. Sankey should throw out the first ball at the CWS today: They have arrived at the final four of the College World Series and it should come as no surprise that the last four teams standing are current SEC members Ole Miss, Arkansas and Texas A&M along with future SEC member Oklahoma. That means the College World Series champ this year will either be an existing SEC member or one that will be joining the league most likely in 2024.
SEC commish Greg Sankey is in Omaha. He should do the honors of throwing out the first pitch today when No. 5 seed Texas A&M faces Oklahoma (2 p.m.) and Ole Miss and Arkansas square off at 7 p.m.
Texas A&M (47-19) lived to play another day Tuesday with a 5-1 loser go home win over Notre Dame, a game that has Florida State fans wondering if Link Jarrett will bolt South Bend to return to his Tallahassee roots. To make the championship round of the CWS, the Aggies have to beat Oklahoma twice. Oklahoma beat the Aggies, 13-8, in the first game of the College World Series.
Arkansas (48-21) avoided a bus ride back to Fayette Nam Tuesday night when they put an 11-1 whipping on 14th-seeded Auburn (46-22), ending the Tigers’ season. The Razorbacks, who lost to Ole Miss, 13-5, Monday night, have to beat the Rebels twice to make the CWS championship round.
3. Scheduling in a 16-team SEC: Get used to an end to divisions in both football and baseball. Basketball eliminated divisions a few years ago, and while scheduling for 14 teams has proven inefficient and quite awkward, the SEC has survived just fine. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma will actually make scheduling easier in all three sports.
Football: It is going to be a 3-6 format with three permanent opponents. There have been some holdouts for an 8-game schedule because nine conference games will eliminate a paycheck game that can make the difference in bowl eligibility. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey prefers the 3-6 model because it will ensure every team in the league will do a home and home with every other team in the league at least every four years. This is also the model that ESPN prefers and since they’re guaranteeing a $17 million raise from the current contract with CBS, what ESPN wants ESPN will get. The only question is who will be the permanent three opponents for every team?
Instead of division champs meeting in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, it will be the two teams with the best records. This, again, is favored by Sankey there won’t be a fluke year when a 7-5 divisional champ gets to Atlanta where it springs an upset. With the College Football Playoff likely to wind up the original model Sankey presented last summer – six highest ranked conference champs, six at large – you could bet the farm that the SEC champ would always be one of the six highest ranked conference titles, something you couldn’t do if a 7-5 team sprung the upset in Atlanta.
Basketball: Basketball is expected to stay with the 18-game schedule but we’ll probably double football’s 3-6 format with home and home arrangements. Just like football, it ensures every team in the league will be playing home and home every four years.
Baseball: Baseball currently operates with divisions and 10 3-game weekends. The 10 3-game weekends will continue, but it will most likely be under a 5-5 format with five permanent opponents. Every team in the league will play home and home at least once every four years.
4. What the SEC gets with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league: There is the obvious, which is the 11 national championships in football (Texas 4, Oklahoma 7) they bring, but it goes well beyond football. The Director’s Cup standings is a nice indicator. Texas has won the 2021-22 Director’s Cup while Oklahoma currently ranks 12th. Florida finished fifth, the highest of any current SEC school. Oklahoma could score the maximum 100 points if it wins the College World Series, which would the Sooners into 9th place. They’re in the final four of the CWS so they will move past Virginia and Southern Cal into 10th even if they don’t make it to the championship series.
The SEC has already won national championships this year in football (Georgia), women’s basketball (South Carolina), women’s indoor track and field (Florida), rifle (Kentucky), men’s outdoor track and field (Florida) and women’s outdoor track and field (Florida). Texas won national championships this year in men’s indoor track and field, men’s golf and women’s tennis. Oklahoma won national championships in gymnastics and softball. Since the final four teams in baseball are current SEC members Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Arkansas plus future SEC member Oklahoma, it means 12 national championships for this sports year for current or future SEC members.
Additionally, Texas finished runner-up in both men’s and women’s swimming and women’s indoor track and field.
COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY EARLY SUMMER EDITION
On Life Support
Bryan Harsin, Auburn: They tried to fire him after he went 6-6 in 2022. If Tank Bigsby had remembered to stay in bounds, he would have beaten Alabama and would have been given a contract extension. He’s not a good fit but at least Bo Nix own’t be his QB this year. Anything less than eight wins and he can make reservations with U-Haul.
Dino Babers, Syracuse: He went 1-10 in 2020 but improved to 5-7 last year. If he doesn’t get to a bowl game, he’s a goner. He has a 4-game gauntlet of North Carolina State, at Clemson, Notre Dame and at Pitt that probably determines whether he’s staying or going.
Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech: He’s 9-25, his best player (Jahmyr Gibbs) transferred to Alabama and he opens the season with Clemson. After a paycheck game, he has Ole Miss, at UCF and at Pitt. Miami is on the schedule. So is Georgia.
Scot Loefler, Bowling Green: Lefty is 7-22 in three years. Three of the first four games are at UCLA, Marshall and at Mississippi State. There isn’t much chance he recovers.
Mike Bloomgren, Rice: He is 11-31 in four years. Three of the first four games are at Southern Cal, Louisiana and at Houston. The find firing coaches distasteful at Rice so he will last until the end of the year.
Jake Spavital, Texas State: Progress was made last year – four wins – but the folks in San Marcos are quite envious of their country cousins in San Antonio where UTSA blew up and went 12-2 last year. Texas State folks think if that’s possible at UTSA, then why not here? Jake is 9-27 in three years. He needs six this year. Baylor is the only guaranteed loss on the schedule.
Endangered Species List
Mike Norvell, Florida State: He is 8-13 in two seasons, which has extended the non-bowl streak to five years for the Seminoles. Duquesne – I didn’t know they play football – so the Seminoles will win one game for sure. Among the more daunting games on the rest of the schedule: LSU (in New Orleans), Wake Forest Gump, at North Carolina State, Clemson, at Miami and Florida. That looks like 5-7 or 6-6. If he’s coaching at FSU next year, it could have everything to do with a monstrous buyout.
Marcus Arroyo, UNLV: The schedule isn’t all that bad. The only surefire losses are at California, at San Diego State, Air Force, at Notre Dame and at San Diego State. Arroyo is 2-16 in two seasons. They won’t fire him if he can get to four or five wins.
Scott Frost, Nebraska: He spent all last year On Life Support, but got a reprieve year, which could salvage his career. If he goes 5-1 out of the chute – entirely possible since the only game he definitely loses will be Oklahoma on September 17 – a 7-5 or better record is likely. In the second half of the season, Michigan is the only surefire loss on the schedule.
Neal Brown, West Virginia: He’s 17-17 in three years but they expect much better. He’s staking his job on JT Daniels, which may not be the brightest thing to do. He has to play at Pittsburgh, at Virginia Tech, at Texas, at Iowa State and at Oklahoma State. He also has to play Oklahoma. That has six losses written all over it and 6-6 isn’t going to save his job.
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders went 7-6 last year and won the Bahamas Bowl, which was viewed by at least 1,000 people in Nassau and maybe 50,000 football-starved souls back in the US. Stockstill is 100-98 in his career which means he’s typically good for a break-even year. Folks in Murfreesboro are weary of break even. He needs eight wins before MTSU goes into football purgatory with the remnants of Conference USA in 2023.
Phil Montgomery, Tulsa: He’s just good enough to stay one step ahead of the pink slip. One of these days they’ll fire him. One of these days could be this year. Phil is 37-46 in seven years on the job.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Sporting News has come up with its preseason top 25 teams and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Gators aren’t included. The Gators probably aren’t as bad as some would have us believe and at this point in time, at least, they aren’t as good as some wishful fans think they should be. Consider the Gators a work in progress. If they can somehow get through September (Utah, Kentucky, South Florida at home, Tennessee on the road), then we have reason to believe they were undervalued from day one. Until then, patience Grasshopper.
Sporting News preseason top 25: 1. Alabama; 2. Ohio State; 3. Georgia; 4. Clemson; 5. Texas A&M; 6. Michigan; 7. Notre Dame; 8. Utah; 9. Oregon; 10. Baylor; 11. Oklahoma; 12. Oklahoma State; 13. Michigan State; 14. Southern Cal; 15. Arkansas; 16. Ole Miss; 17. Kentucky; 18. Wake Forest; 19. North Carolina State; 20. Iowa; 21. Pittsburgh; 22. Cincinnati; 23. Houston; 24. Tennessee; 25. Texas
