I know at least one person on this site besides me is into playing the ponies (@Tarjf). I have had some really good days at the track, my best day I had a $1 superfecta (I played 5 horses in a superfecta box, cost $120) that paid $15,000 and in the very next race I had a $5 trifecta (4 horses in a trifecta box) that paid $5000. I gave one of my brothers $18,000 and asked him to take my money and go home.
I am a "pace handicapper". I do well when there are 2-3 horses in a race that can only win if they go wire-to-wire and they run a very hot pace. Usually early speed horses and stalkers (horses that lay back in 2nd, 3rd or 4th and run down the pacesetter in the stretch) are the favorites. Late running horse are usually longshots because they are relying on the pace setters to burn each other out. Watch the videos of Giacomo 2005, Mine That Bird 2009, and Rich Strike in 2022. One thing each race had in common was a blistering pace and the traditional "best horse" did not win, the speed duel set it up for the closers.
This year it is difficult to determine who the early speed will be. All of the major Kentucky Derby prep winners came from way off the pace except for Rodriguez, winner of the Wood Memorial wire to wire. Only problem is the last winner of the Wood to win the Ky Derby was in 2000.
I have my closers if I can convince myself the early speed duel will be there...but right now I am unsure of the early pace. Otherwise I will have to go with Journalism, the favorite. I think he has tactical speed and can come from behind. Favorites win the KY Derby a bit more that 33% and they come in the money around 64% of the time. Usually betting the favorite to show is a pretty good bet in the Kentucky Derby. There are so many horses in the race diluting the show pool so usually the favorite will pay twice a much to show as you might think.
Any other handicappers out there?
I am a "pace handicapper". I do well when there are 2-3 horses in a race that can only win if they go wire-to-wire and they run a very hot pace. Usually early speed horses and stalkers (horses that lay back in 2nd, 3rd or 4th and run down the pacesetter in the stretch) are the favorites. Late running horse are usually longshots because they are relying on the pace setters to burn each other out. Watch the videos of Giacomo 2005, Mine That Bird 2009, and Rich Strike in 2022. One thing each race had in common was a blistering pace and the traditional "best horse" did not win, the speed duel set it up for the closers.
This year it is difficult to determine who the early speed will be. All of the major Kentucky Derby prep winners came from way off the pace except for Rodriguez, winner of the Wood Memorial wire to wire. Only problem is the last winner of the Wood to win the Ky Derby was in 2000.
I have my closers if I can convince myself the early speed duel will be there...but right now I am unsure of the early pace. Otherwise I will have to go with Journalism, the favorite. I think he has tactical speed and can come from behind. Favorites win the KY Derby a bit more that 33% and they come in the money around 64% of the time. Usually betting the favorite to show is a pretty good bet in the Kentucky Derby. There are so many horses in the race diluting the show pool so usually the favorite will pay twice a much to show as you might think.
Any other handicappers out there?
