I commented early in this thread but hopefully the below helps some of the Trump tactic doubters understand how negotiations work. However, to open I’ll just say no one knows what the end result will be, and the short and long term impacts on the US economy.
1) No one and I mean no one, starts a major contract negotiation on this scale to improve their position without having leverage and a goal to improve their situation of a current trade agreement. However, when you control over 50% of the world’s consumption power, you are in a position of strength, regardless of debt.
2) Tariff use is only the front end attention getter. Not only are they effective in getting your current Trade partner’s attention which you’re trying to remedy issues with, it lets the others you’re not currently trading with have to have an opportunity in prospecting their alternative options to you.
3) During the negotiations, there will be lots of posturing from both sides of the table. As new alternative options emerge for Trump and the other side sees this (foreign investment, new trade partners, and better negotiated trade deals with smaller partners removing or reducing tariffs from their markets etc) the reliance on the bigger vested trade partners is diminished and further leverage is gained with your main Trade partners like China.
3) So new tariff/trade deals are already on the table from other countries not wanting to miss this opportunity. Foreign company investments are being made in US based production to not lose their market share and US companies are shifting production back to USA and shifting money and some jobs here. When foreign product is built here, it will reduce consumer cost either through transportation savings or working around tariff impacts to make them competitive in the US markets. Did I mention we represent over 50% of the world’s consumption power? Again, leverage.
4) Trump’s goal is not to tariff the world and make the US richer again that way. His goal is to make America’s trade deals better and the US stronger financially, that’s it How we get there is going to be a combination of things imo and all are better for the long term health of this country. I implore you to look past the legacy media fear mongering, as things are moving very positively early. We are seeing concessions on both sides as a resulting outcome. (US/China)
In closing, this isn’t about politics, it’s about business and improving our debt situation and future trade reliance outside of the US. Some foreign investment will take longer but there are both short term and long term impacts in all this. So don’t look at 5 years down the line for foreign factory production as a downside, it’s for long term gains for our country and to open discussions on other products which foreign countries tariff us on for entry today. US products will also be opened for markets in many of these countries where foreign tariff barriers have excluded them prior, again making Us companies more profitable and able to expand their global footprint.
Sit back and watch it unfold, get past your short term impacts and propaganda (see today’s market news on recession fears, lol) things will be bumpy but I can honestly say it’s going better than I expected which likely means it will get better faster too. China has to figure out how to manage it publicly with their own country as they portray a tough exterior but make no mistake about it, we represent so much buying power, they don’t want to lose it. The fact we are two of the largest production and consuming entities working together means they’ll find a way to compromise. And at this point, Trump’s improving of the US situation will not only reduce our debt quicker but set the stage for better negotiations going forward with other nations globally.
Meantime, just sit back and watch it all unfold.