the only odd explanation is the total was 10.5 for the game and if you wanna play tin foil hat it was the last meaningless inning to hit the over and that would give them the shot at it.. and they did and the over total did hit by half a run
NCAA Baseball Tourney
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the only odd explanation is the total was 10.5 for the game and if you wanna play tin foil hat it was the last meaningless inning to hit the over and that would give them the shot at it.. and they did and the over total did hit by half a run
I was wondering this. If Shore wins, then it sets up just fine. AJ pitches in the lowest-pressure start and you've got Faedo for the elimination game, if necessary. But if Shore loses, can you really send Puk out there in an elimination game with Faedo sitting on the bench?
My guess is that Sully won't mess with it and start Puk in that situation with a very short leash. Puk is fine so long as everything is going well, but he does not handle adversity well. With the arms on our bench, it would be inexcusable to let Puk get into a bad situation and get knocked around again, like he did on Saturday, and it would be on Sully if it happens.
Switching Puk and Faedo wouldn't even so much be a critique of Puk, although he makes me very nervous. Faedo has been amazing and would really deserve that start.
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I hate these kind of match ups. A rivalry series against a talented team that has an opportunity to make up for regular season ass whoopings. Hopefully the pitching holds up.
Logan Shore and Alex Faedo give me some confidence. The FSU pitching is good, but not elite.
One wonders if there is some truth to the adage that "No one, and I mean no one can beat the FSU Seminole Baseball team five times in one year."
Honestly, if the team had met this year for a weekend series, I might be a bit more skeptical that we could win two more, with FSU batters having seen all three Florida starters. But FSU has not seen Shore, Puk or Faedo this year. They saw Shore last year and did not do well against him in 5.2 innings. They got four hits, but no ER.
FSU chased Puk off the mound in the second game in four innings and three ER, but Poyner pitched the rest of the game and gave up no ER.
FSU has never faced Faedo.
They have faced Dunning this year. In the first game between the two teams played in Gainesville, Dunning ptiched for 5.2 innings and gave up no ER. In the second game, played in Jacksonville, Kowar started and got the win, giving up one ER. In the final game played in Tallahassee, Kowar started through 4 innings. Rubio briefly suspended his Presidential Campaign and pitched 2 innings and recorded the win.
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I agree we have a decided pitching advantage, but the first four in the fsu lineup are really good hitters. The games should be close.
We are actually 6 deep in the box this year. It is a very talented lineup offensively. If the Florida pitching is off a bit, FSU is talented enough to take advantage. You guy are just so good on the hill. It's hard to imagine that happening to any great degree. If it did, Sully has such a depth of options. If FSU were to compete this weekend, that is the way I believe it would need to unfold. Our challenge is getting to your pitchers. You guys know how we play - patience at the plate, run up pitch-counts and get to the bullpen. However, as we all know, getting to the Gators Bullpen is no picnic. As a baseball fan, it's hard not to appreciate the way Florida plays the game.
These guys? Pretty impressive stats.
That said, how has the hitting been away from home? FSU has a losing road record, so one wonders what goes wrong with the team when they get on the road?
I assume the starters from FSU will come from this group? As you say, those are not impressive stats.
Just out of curiosity, I took a peek at how the top FSU guys did in the first three games. For the most part, they were reasonably productive, from a hit stand point.
Now that USCe has moved on, that makes 4 of 7 SEC teams to the Super Regional.
Conference pride aside, I am not sure I will be rooting for LSU tonight. If we make it to the CWS, our road might be a bit easier if we don not have to face them.
Conference pride aside, I am not sure I will be rooting for LSU tonight. If we make it to the CWS, our road might be a bit easier if we don not have to face them.
MJ -I assume the starters from FSU will come from this group? As you say, those are not impressive stats.
The rotation is Carlton, Holton, Sands. Holton whom you guys have seen before is a true freshman who struggle early on, but has been very good of late and probably FSU's best chance to win a game. Ed Volyles comes out of the pen for relief. Jim Voyles (twin) is our long reliever and the most consistent of all of them. When Sands isn't having control issue he can be effective. His K:BB ratio is atrocious though. Compton has had some arm issues of late (still unclear as to the exact problem), however his last three outings, since sitting out, have been very poor. He's been relegated to the bullpen.
I haven't looked too deeply into the production on the road? This is the second consecutive year we've had a losing road record. No doubt FSU is a different team in front of their home crowd, but we are all at a loss as to the wide discrepancy there the last two years?
As you can see the pitching is what holds us back...and has for a long, long time now. IMO Martin is a fantastic "baseball" coach and our teams wins because of his approach to the game. Unfortunately, he & staff have failed miserably over the years to bring in elite arms. It's a Rivalry, FSU is certainly due for a win vs UF and baseball is baseball. That said, for this team to go into Gainesville and take a Super? That one is hard for us to see.
baseball is baseball.
This is it. Florida's a big favorite at home, but in baseball that probably translates to a 60/40 edge. Plenty of ways for a best of 3 series to go wrong. That said, the national seeds have held up remarkably well so far. 7 of 8 are hosting supers. USC jr. is the only party crasher, and they've been mauling people.
This is it. Florida's a big favorite at home, but in baseball that probably translates to a 60/40 edge. Plenty of ways for a best of 3 series to go wrong. That said, the national seeds have held up remarkably well so far. 7 of 8 are hosting supers. USC jr. is the only party crasher, and they've been mauling people.
MLB draft today. Be interesting to see where Puk goes and if that impacts him. I could see it putting some extra pressure on him. Every time he shows up on camera the announcer's going to recite his draft slot.
The positive is he won't hear it every time it is announced.
It also works for and against other teams. Depends on the mindset of the players. Some could be hyped to perform great against a high draft pick while others can be intimated.
It actually could take pressure off. He's financially secure and won't have to worry about his draft spot. I'm a Fan of the Rockies who pick 4th. I'd be pretty psyched if we got him. He's probably the most physically gifted pitcher in the draft. You just have to straighten out his head. I'd be very psyched if we picked up Shore later.
ISR-Based Probabilities for 2016 NCAA Tournament -- Before Super Regionals
Reg Super Final Champ Team
100.0 84.1 41.1 26.1 Florida
100.0 15.9 3.0 1.2 Florida State
100.0 75.3 10.6 4.9 Louisiana State
100.0 24.7 1.9 0.5 Coastal Carolina
100.0 58.1 21.3 12.8 Texas A&M
100.0 41.9 11.9 6.2 Texas Christian
100.0 75.3 9.6 3.7 Texas Tech
100.0 24.7 0.5 0.1 East Carolina
100.0 88.8 36.4 18.4 Louisville
100.0 11.2 1.3 0.3 UC Santa Barbara
100.0 24.7 2.1 0.5 Oklahoma State
100.0 75.3 16.6 7.2 South Carolina
100.0 90.5 24.2 11.1 Miami, Florida
100.0 9.5 0.3 0.0 Boston College
100.0 73.7 15.9 6.0 Mississippi State
100.0 26.3 3.2 0.9 Arizona
Reg Super Final Champ Team
100.0 84.1 41.1 26.1 Florida
100.0 15.9 3.0 1.2 Florida State
100.0 75.3 10.6 4.9 Louisiana State
100.0 24.7 1.9 0.5 Coastal Carolina
100.0 58.1 21.3 12.8 Texas A&M
100.0 41.9 11.9 6.2 Texas Christian
100.0 75.3 9.6 3.7 Texas Tech
100.0 24.7 0.5 0.1 East Carolina
100.0 88.8 36.4 18.4 Louisville
100.0 11.2 1.3 0.3 UC Santa Barbara
100.0 24.7 2.1 0.5 Oklahoma State
100.0 75.3 16.6 7.2 South Carolina
100.0 90.5 24.2 11.1 Miami, Florida
100.0 9.5 0.3 0.0 Boston College
100.0 73.7 15.9 6.0 Mississippi State
100.0 26.3 3.2 0.9 Arizona
Can't argue with that. Faedo is throwing as well as anyone in the country and you've got Shore for the elimination game (one way or another). Two mlb first round picks backing them up. I like it.
I actually think last year's team was better. Richie Martin instead of Lipput, Bader instead of Reyes/Maldonado, although those guys are really coming on, last year's Schwarz over this year's Schwarz, at this point India and Tobias are probably a wash. Maybe our pitching is marginally better this year. We did just have 5 guys drafted on the first day, so we're the No 1 seed for a reason.
O'Sullivan is shaking up his pitching rotation, going with usual Sunday starter Alex Faedo (13-1, 3.19 ERA) Saturday, ace Logan Shore, the Friday starter, on Sunday and A.J. Puk (2-3, 3.21) if necessary Monday. The school announced the probable starters Friday evening. Faedo, a sophomore righty, pitched the best in regional play last week, striking out 10 in eight shutout innings last Sunday against Georgia Tech. Shore (11-0, 2.44 ERA) has won 16 straight decisions dating back to last season and is the SEC pitcher of the year.
Very tough to beat a good team 6 times in a row. Not to mention the wonderful distraction of having your coach being named as the top candidate for another job. Fsu kid was lights out. Going to be tough to come back, but good news is we can.
Do not buy the consecutive win argument. But you are right that the FSU pitcher was lights out. Did not matter what our pitchers did. If we can't score, we can't win. Our guys were trying to be patient, but the FSU pitcher got every single close call. So he was smart enough to keep throwing that way.
While I thought O'Sullivan made a mistake by starting Faedo over Shore, who has been our game 1 starter for 2 years and was the SEC pitcher of the year, giving up 3 runs (1 unearned) should be enough to win against a very good hitting FSU team. Our hitters just looked lost at the plate. Give their pitcher credit. Going to be tough to win 2 straight, but it just depends on how focused our guys are. Maybe having so many guys drafted was too much of a distraction. Louisville looked similar to us today.
Yea, maybe. Yet only one higher seeded Super Regional home team won their first game and that was Miami. Yet they lose their second game too.
LSU is leading, so they might be the second home team to win the first game.
I think we can win the next two. But we shall see.
