I realize the transitive property does not work well in college football, but if you look at common opponents, you can usually get a feel for how things should play out. When you compare the Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee games this one should even be close honestly.
First, let us look at yards per play differential (YPP Diff). This stat is one of the biggest determinations of success. In the three games, Georgia had a YPP Diff of 1.49, Florida had a YPP Diff of 1.67, a 0.17 YPP in favor of UF. That is not a huge difference, but it is in UF’s favor.
In points per game differential (PPG Diff) Georgia averaged 27 PPG, Florida averaged 33.7. Additionally, Georgia had a PPG Diff of 15.7, Florida’s was 16.7.
Next I looked at passing yards per play. Georgia averaged 6.2 yards per pass (YPP), Florida averaged 8.8, a 2.6 yard per pass difference. Furthermore, when you look at yards per pass differential (YPP Diff.) Georgia was at 1.6 yards per pass, Florida was at 2.5 yards per pass.
Finally I looked at yards per rush (YPR), this is what everyone is concerned about right? Well the numbers may surprise some of you. Georgia averaged 5.3 YPR in those three games; Florida averaged 4.7, a difference of 0.6 YPR in favor of Georgia. Yes, that stat is in favor of Georgia, but not nearly as much as I expected. Moreover, the yards per play differential for Georgia was 1.6, for Florida it was 0.8, a difference of only 0.8.
So what does all of this mean? If these teams play close to the way they played in those three games combined Florida should move the ball better than Georgia and be able to put up more points. Not only did Florida do a better job moving the ball through the air and putting up more points in those three games, but Florida’s defense also did a better job of limiting those three teams. I’m starting to feel better and better about this game.
First, let us look at yards per play differential (YPP Diff). This stat is one of the biggest determinations of success. In the three games, Georgia had a YPP Diff of 1.49, Florida had a YPP Diff of 1.67, a 0.17 YPP in favor of UF. That is not a huge difference, but it is in UF’s favor.
In points per game differential (PPG Diff) Georgia averaged 27 PPG, Florida averaged 33.7. Additionally, Georgia had a PPG Diff of 15.7, Florida’s was 16.7.
Next I looked at passing yards per play. Georgia averaged 6.2 yards per pass (YPP), Florida averaged 8.8, a 2.6 yard per pass difference. Furthermore, when you look at yards per pass differential (YPP Diff.) Georgia was at 1.6 yards per pass, Florida was at 2.5 yards per pass.
Finally I looked at yards per rush (YPR), this is what everyone is concerned about right? Well the numbers may surprise some of you. Georgia averaged 5.3 YPR in those three games; Florida averaged 4.7, a difference of 0.6 YPR in favor of Georgia. Yes, that stat is in favor of Georgia, but not nearly as much as I expected. Moreover, the yards per play differential for Georgia was 1.6, for Florida it was 0.8, a difference of only 0.8.
So what does all of this mean? If these teams play close to the way they played in those three games combined Florida should move the ball better than Georgia and be able to put up more points. Not only did Florida do a better job moving the ball through the air and putting up more points in those three games, but Florida’s defense also did a better job of limiting those three teams. I’m starting to feel better and better about this game.
