Watch out for South Carolina? I laughed. We will beat them by 3 scores and they will beat you by 3 scores the following week.
South Carolina comes in on a 3 game winning streak- Arkansas, Tennessee, Vanderbilt-.At 6-2 they are still in the hunt for the SEC East. While I realize they aren’t ranked, are they still a 6-2 fraud? They won a game vs La Tech (17-16)where they trailed in the 4th 13-0 at home. Easily could be a loss. They beat a terrible Tennessee team 15-9 by kicking 3 fg’s and only scoring 1 TD. Also, Tennessee was deep in the Redzone twice, had false start penalties and had to settle for fg’s. Last week’s game vs Vandy was another near loss. This is a Vandy team that has been beaten to death over the past 5 weeks- Kansas State, Bama, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss. That’s a brutal schedule for any team. Vandy still managed to put up 440 yards of offense on the Gamecocks. What killed Vandy were the penalties. An absolutely brutal, drive killing 10 penalties for 100 yards. Vandy is just not talented enough to overcome that much lost yardage throughout the game. This South Carolina team is lucky to not be 4-4 or even 3-5.
Their offense ranks #107. This while only facing 1 defense that ranks in the top 50 and only 2 that rank above 75. Now they face #3 defense on the road. Their QB Bentley ranks near the bottom in the SEC in QBR and regressed in October. Where he saw his completion rate fall from 62% to 59%, his YPA go from 8 to 6 and his rating tumble from 143 to 125…all while facing defenses in October ranked #80, #83, and #97. Bentleys rating goes down to 97 on 3rd downs and let’s face it. He’s going to be in a lot of 3rd downs on Saturday.
The South Carolina D ranks #58 in FBS in total defense and #40 vs the run. Which is the important number here. However in 8 games they’ve only faced 3 teams in the top 70 in rushing offense-#42, #67, #68. That number #42 team put up 225 yard rushing on them. They’ll now be facing the Dawgs who rank #10 and hammer you with big, strong, painful runners. Muschamp is no doubt going to come up some D to try and stop the run. Just like everyone else has. The issue is he has is he just doesn’t have the players or, depth to stop it all game. Maybe the first quarter but, once the adrenaline wears off and fatigue sets in, it’s hard to keep getting in front of these backs. As they keep coming… one after another.
Georgia continues to roll and pile up huge numbers. Over there last 3 games they avg 46 points. The backs speak for themselves- Sony, Chubb, Swift, and Holyfield. Someone is always fresh and they just keep coming. Where Bentley regressed in October, Fromm has only gotten better and more comfortable. Since Oct 1st he has gone from 59% and 9 ypa to 65% and 12 ypa. 159 rating to 195. South Carolina will undoubtedly dare him to throw. While he doesn’t throw a lot Fromm ranks near the top ten in passing efficiency. South Carolina passing D ranks near 100. Not a good combo.
South Carolina has no distinct advantage anywhere. In fact they are thoroughly out matched on both sides of the ball. BUT, the question is not whether they can win. Its whether they can keep it within the spread. This is a perfect let down spot for GA. They have a big game on deck with Auburn and maybe they are caught looking ahead.
Kirby and Champ are also ex-teammates and friends. Kirby isn’t going to be inclined to embarrass his friend. He may take his foot off the gas. Now I don’t think he’ll drop a 50 spot on him but, is 40 really running it up when you average 38? And if they do get to 40 can South Carolina get to 17 for the cover? That’s a big stretch when they only average 24 on the road vs D’s nowhere near the caliber as Georgia’s.
While I agree this game could be a letdown and/or a look ahead situation. If this was still a Mark Richt coached team then I would definitely be looking for a sluggish non focused game. But until Kirby shows me he won’t have them focused each week, I’ll keep believing.
I think SC is too far out classed, not enough offense, QB is not good enough to navigate this D, SC top playmaker is still out, their D will not be able to hold up in the 2nd half. Too big of a step up in class for this SC team this year
I expect 45-13 but, 38-13 will cash the tickets also
Bets:
Dawgs -23.5
Over 44.5
I think I touched a nerve.
Somebody's worried, knows his team is a fraud, fears the inevitable exposure...