Will Napier survive after 2024?

[gatorshime]

First, I decided to watch the baseball game until the end and It’s GREAT TO BE A FLORIDA GATOR!!!!

Next, I read Sad’s post and first, the ACC is where you want to go but, sadly ( no pun intended ) he is right. Add in a tough year this year both schedule wise and lack of mature talent and an average QB and we might be headed for two years of 5-7. Would Coach survive that? And who in the hell scheduled that OOC lineup? Look at some of the big boys OOC schedules vs. ours. As Sad and other said, you’re gonna have some 11-1 or 10-2 teams in the playoff when 3 loss SEC teams will be much better.

College used to be my favorite but, the money of NIL and the portal have ruined it for me. 4-5 teams will be there every year for the next 5-6 years.

 

[micfan]

I'm hoping they let Billy run his operation and not look to make a determination on his status as head coach until the 2026 season is over. If the ship isn't full sail at that point then yes things will have to occur. I think we will be a very good program at that point. No coach comes in and wins a championship in a couple of years when you have to turn your roster over and install a complete new system from top to bottom within the organization. I know the right now attitude of our fans but changing coaches like pants isn't the answer.

 

[fsu939913]

Not sure, Austin Simmons just flipped to Ole Miss. If you can't sign a QB, you have no chance. That is what ultimately doomed Willie at FSU. You have Lagway committed but Rashads and Simmons just bailed last min. Crazy

 

[sadgator]

I'm hoping they let Billy run his operation and not look to make a determination on his status as head coach until the 2026 season is over. If the ship isn't full sail at that point then yes things will have to occur. I think we will be a very good program at that point. No coach comes in and wins a championship in a couple of years when you have to turn your roster over and install a complete new system from top to bottom within the organization. I know the right now attitude of our fans but changing coaches like pants isn't the answer.

Seriously?!?!? That is an absurd post, no offense.

There are plenty of available examples of quality coaches turning around programs in 2 years…including Florida…twice (if not, essentially 3 times)…and you are going to wait until after 2026?!?!?!?!? Get outta here…

Napier has been fully allowed to “run his operation” over the past year and 1/2…

He brought an approx. 1000 staff “army” and what do we have to show for it so far…

A defense that still couldn’t line up correctly in the last game of the regular season in 2022…no offensive identity through most of the 2022 season…a mind-bending thrashing in a laughable bowl game our entire team no-showed for…a national embarrassment in the recruiting of a desired player…and average recruiting and substandard portal use in areas of need to date…

Yeah…you can wait until 2026…sadgator’ll be ready to make a full assessment after this coming season…not that it matters…

 

[fsu939913]

Seriously?!?!? That is an absurd post, no offense.

There are plenty of available examples of quality coaches turning around programs in 2 years…including Florida…twice (if not, essentially 3 times)…and you are going to wait until after 2026?!?!?!?!? Get outta here…

Napier has been fully allowed to “run his operation” over the past year and 1/2…

He brought an approx. 1000 staff “army” and what do we have to show for it so far…

A defense that still couldn’t line up correctly in the last game of the regular season in 2022…no offensive identity through most of the 2022 season…a mind-bending thrashing in a laughable bowl game our entire team no-showed for…a national embarrassment in the recruiting of a desired player…and average recruiting and substandard portal use in areas of need to date…

Yeah…you can wait until 2026…sadgator’ll be ready to make a full assessment after this coming season…not that it matters…

Outside observer, 2 things are true here.

1. It's hard to turn around a program in 2 yr (unless you use the portal correctly, which Billy has not done).

2. You have to hit early on or have something in the bag to work with. Billy has missed on Rashada, now Simmons. You can't keep missing because every time you do, it just moves the dates back.

His only saving grace right now is Lagway, if Lagway plays him for a fool, he's done.

If I'm Billy, next yr I take 10 to 15 from the portal including a QB. Hes making some pretty big missteps early on that might cost him before he can turn the ship.

Not recruiting portal hard is a huge mistake, he has like 100 assistants and was forcing Kidd to make tapes for him instead of having assistants dedicated to that? Crazy to me.

His other big mistake so far has been QB recruiting, he's lost 2 of 2 so far, what happens if UF has a terrible season (let's say injuries to the wrong position happens) and you win 4 or 5 games. Does Lagway stick?

He needs some wins this yr imo to say "afloat".

 

[sadgator]

…and the funny thing is…sadgator actually likes Napier…

He’s a real genuine guy who is a hard and dedicated worker…

But 2026?!?!? Please.

 

[Jeff from Jax]

I'm hoping they let Billy run his operation and not look to make a determination on his status as head coach until the 2026 season is over. If the ship isn't full sail at that point then yes things will have to occur. I think we will be a very good program at that point. No coach comes in and wins a championship in a couple of years when you have to turn your roster over and install a complete new system from top to bottom within the organization. I know the right now attitude of our fans but changing coaches like pants isn't the answer.

Mic,

Agree with some but not all of your thoughts.

Asking boosters/fans to wait for 2026 not going to happen.
CBN Needs to START showing positive changes (Not Titles or CFP Appearances) sooner.

"Changing coaches like pants isn't the answer" - Agree

Every Coaching change brings a new staff, new systems, & you lose commits & targets.
The interim class is so bad, you lose a year in recruiting.

CBN, as a condition of taking the Gator's HC job, forced Stricklin to pay to create - from ground zero - the staff it takes to START competing with Bama, UGA, LSU, etc. for quality players.

The miscue with Rashada & the former Gator Collective shows how new & inept we were in that area. That was less than a year ago & we still aren't on that same financial level yet.

There are some exceptions, but NIL$$$ the basic reason good/great players put themselves up for auction in the portal.

Main reasons for our Portal results -
1. We don't have the flow of NIL$$$ that other schools have.
2. Team not good enough to "showcase" players for the NFL

Most of those schools had their money sources already established & used them to fill "McDonalds Bags".
Converting that financial flow to legal NIL$$$ Channels much easier that starting from scratch.

 

[Gator Fever]

You can go 6-6/7-5 the first 2 seasons but you cant be doing that your first 3 seasons as it would show you are not up to the job. He owns this QB situation as he hasnt enrolled a blue chip high school QB yet at UF in his first 2 classes which is unheard of for a new coach at a top SEC school.

 

[PacoGator19]

Some of you all are crazy and need to chill for a bit and let some things play out. It’s still way too early. Billy’s plan isn’t and never was going to be a “quick fix”. College football is much different now than it was when Spurrier or even Meyer was here. Billy isn’t going to recruit portal heavy. That’s just a band aid if you can’t recruit high school prospects. That’s not in his plan and not what Stricklin envisioned either. Maybe he works out or maybe he doesn’t but still way too early to tell.

 

[GatorNation79]

Some of you all are crazy

That's an understatement. Everyone wants the grand slam victory. Base hits is how you win...it's been 14 years since Meyer was here. We haven't even taken a snap in the 2nd season. If it takes CBN 4 (and I expect it to) to right the ship then let's go!

 

[Gator Fever]

Some of you all are crazy and need to chill for a bit and let some things play out. It’s still way too early. Billy’s plan isn’t and never was going to be a “quick fix”. College football is much different now than it was when Spurrier or even Meyer was here. Billy isn’t going to recruit portal heavy. That’s just a band aid if you can’t recruit high school prospects. That’s not in his plan and not what Stricklin envisioned either. Maybe he works out or maybe he doesn’t but still way too early to tell.

Even before the portal I am trying to think of any coach at a big UF level school in modern times that took until their fourth full year to have a good season and went onto big things. Year 2 is one thing in a rebuild but year 3 there are no excuses not to be winning a lot of games. I am hoping we up the recruiting a bit and get a top 10 class this time but even like a # 10 class will put you behind 5 teams in the new SEC probably. Napier better have development down and better get a viable winner at QB for the 2024 season or things could get ugly for us and him. If I was him and we have the 2023 season I think we will have I would tell the big money guys you can either get a decent QB for 2024 or the whole rebuild will likely fall apart. I am already writing off 2023 as a 6-6/7-5 season due to the QB situation we are in. If he pulled an 8-4 season somehow with Mertz at QB it would gave me a lot more confidence in him however.

 

[PacoGator19]

Even before the portal I am trying to think of any coach at a big UF level school in modern times that took until their fourth full year to have a good season and went onto big things. Year 2 is one thing in a rebuild but year 3 there are no excuses not to be winning a lot of games. I am hoping we up the recruiting a bit and get a top 10 class this time but even like a # 10 class will put you behind 5 teams in the new SEC probably. Napier better have development down and better get a viable winner at QB for the 2024 season or things could get ugly for us and him. If I was him and we have the 2023 season I think we will have I would tell the big money guys you can either get a decent QB for 2024 or the whole rebuild will likely fall apart. I am already writing off 2023 as a 6-6/7-5 season due to the QB situation we are in. If he pulled an 8-4 season somehow with Mertz at QB it would gave me a lot more confidence in him however.

It’s not going to be easy and it wouldn’t be that easy for anybody IMO the way college football is now and being in the SEC and with our schedule. He definitely has his work cut out for him but just in case you haven’t noticed we exactly haven’t had the best of luck with coaching hires the last few times. I actually think Mullen hurt our program even more than Muschamp and McElwain because Mullen just flat out quit recruiting and let things get bad within the program. You said it yourself Mullen was taking risks in recruiting with many kids never even making it in, etc. I think you have to give Napier at least a few years to try and raise the ceiling and the floor of the roster. I said it when he was hired. If nothing else at least let Napier pull a Zook and load the roster up for the next guy. Hell looking back I’d take Zook’s years over Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen’s years just because of the fact he gave the next coach something to work with.

 

[gatorshime]

…and the funny thing is…sadgator actually likes Napier…

He’s a real genuine guy who is a hard and dedicated worker…

But 2026?!?!? Please.

2026 thing is fantasy land but, you just can’t see 11-1’s, 10-2’s or the mythical 12-0’s with Texas and Oklahoma added and then you play LSU and FSU EVERY Year and your OOC has UCF and Miami also? I go to the current/future ncaaf schedule site and you look at some ACC, Big 10 and PAC 10 teams Schedules especially OOC and they are smart, playing for the playoff over a quality OOC lineup. I think at best I see 7-5 or 6-6’s the next 2 years with 5-7 or worse possible

 

[fsu939913]

That's an understatement. Everyone wants the grand slam victory. Base hits is how you win...it's been 14 years since Meyer was here. We haven't even taken a snap in the 2nd season. If it takes CBN 4 (and I expect it to) to right the ship then let's go!

I mean look at Norvell. He won 3, then 5, then 10, and this yr probably 10 or more. Patience is key with certain programs in today's time with how recruiting, portal, and NIL have changed the game. Billy has been recruiting really really well except at QB which is the position you need the most. The good news is he has Lagway on the line, if he gets him in the boat, things will really start to look up

 

[steven orr]

We’ve been scrambling since 2009 when Urban announced he was done then came back for one more year. We have had success here and there but short lived. One successful year w muschamp, maybe 2 sort of successful years w mcelwain, 2 successful years w Mullen.
Have to stick w Napier. Need to allow him to build something. There is no quick fix.

 

[Gator Fever]

That's an understatement. Everyone wants the grand slam victory. Base hits is how you win...it's been 14 years since Meyer was here. We haven't even taken a snap in the 2nd season. If it takes CBN 4 (and I expect it to) to right the ship then let's go!

Let me ask you this. Name me a coach that since lets say the 90s when the championship game was not prevented by bowl tie-ins where one of the coaches didnt have an 8-4 or better regular season his first 3 years after being hired as the head coach there. Just think its crazy acting like Napier should be able to get away with around a .500 season in year 3 after similar records the first 2 seasons. I think he will do that by year 3 unless he just isnt cut out for the job. He can make people early believers if he can pull an 8-4 this season. If we allowed that we are the new KY of football in the SEC even in the talent rich state of FL.

 

[Jeff from Jax]

You can go 6-6/7-5 the first 2 seasons but you cant be doing that your first 3 seasons as it would show you are not up to the job. He owns this QB situation as he hasnt enrolled a blue chip high school QB yet at UF in his first 2 classes which is unheard of for a new coach at a top SEC school.

Fever,

You have posted that numerous times & obviously believe it.
Mike Norvell's (realize FSU NOT an SEC school) QB recruiting was non existent until Jordan Travis Portaled In from Louisville.

FSU on the rise & beat us (AR as QB1) last year in Tally. Odds on this year's game - A pre-season Toss Up; who know what game week will bring.

Most of us tend to dwell on our past accomplishments & use them as a metric for today's expectations.
BUT
"Nothing is constant but change."
Remember, West Point was once a top football school.

When Bear Bryant retired what happened to Bama ?
How long did it take for Saban to rebuild ?

We have not been the "Top" SEC school since 2008 - our Last SEC Title.
We have not been among the top SEC schools in two years -
our Last East Division Title - 2020.

Doubt it will change this year.

EDIT
Think Paco's comparison with Mullen, Muschamp, & McElwain SPOT ON !

"...I actually think Mullen hurt our program even more than Muschamp and McElwain because Mullen just flat out quit recruiting and let things get bad within the program.
You (Fever) said it yourself Mullen was taking risks in recruiting with many kids never even making it in, etc."

 

[Gator Fever]

Fever,

You have posted that numerous times & obviously believe it.
Mike Norvell's (realize FSU NOT an SEC school) QB recruiting was non existent until Jordan Travis Portaled In from Louisville.

FSU on the rise & beat us (AR as QB1) last year in Tally. Odds on this year's game - A pre-season Toss Up; who know what game week will bring.

Most of us tend to dwell on our past accomplishments & use them as a metric for today's expectations.
BUT
"Nothing is constant but change."
Remember, West Point was once a top football school.

When Bear Bryant retired what happened to Bama ?
How long did it take for Saban to rebuild ?

We have not been the "Top" SEC school since 2008 - our Last SEC Title.
We have not been among the top SEC schools in two years -
our Last East Division Title - 2020.

Doubt it will change this year.

EDIT
Think Paco's comparison with Mullen, Muschamp, & McElwain SPOT ON !

"...I actually think Mullen hurt our program even more than Muschamp and McElwain because Mullen just flat out quit recruiting and let things get bad within the program.
You (Fever) said it yourself Mullen was taking risks in recruiting with many kids never even making it in, etc."

Still there is nothing that would justify 6-6/7-5 your first 3 years at Florida except incompetence when it comes to coaching in a big SEC program. Heck many new coaches in the SEC have got 7 wins in a season their first 3 years at the lower programs like Ole Miss, Miss State and KY. I agree their needs to patience in year 2 but that doesnt mean you should accept 3 mediocre years where you are losing to many teams with less talent. Heck we have more talent than 9 teams this season we play but are probably looking at 6-6 or 7-5 since Napier got Mertz at QB and didnt get a blue chipper in the first 2 high school classes.

 

[PacoGator19]

Right now you just have to let Blue Chip Billy recruit and see where things are at in a few years. Unfortunately not even a Meyer or Spurrier could do much with this roster. They certainly couldn’t beat a Bama or Georgia which I would assume is the end goal?

 

[micfan]

Seriously?!?!? That is an absurd post, no offense.

There are plenty of available examples of quality coaches turning around programs in 2 years…including Florida…twice (if not, essentially 3 times)…and you are going to wait until after 2026?!?!?!?!? Get outta here…

Napier has been fully allowed to “run his operation” over the past year and 1/2…

He brought an approx. 1000 staff “army” and what do we have to show for it so far…

A defense that still couldn’t line up correctly in the last game of the regular season in 2022…no offensive identity through most of the 2022 season…a mind-bending thrashing in a laughable bowl game our entire team no-showed for…a national embarrassment in the recruiting of a desired player…and average recruiting and substandard portal use in areas of need to date…

Yeah…you can wait until 2026…sadgator’ll be ready to make a full assessment after this coming season…not that it matters…

It doesn't really matter sadgator. I think most people would like to see what a long term coaching staff or army if you please can accomplish here, 3 to 4 years and out has been the main theme here. Now if we had an unlimited bankroll where we could but a veteran team every year I guess that the 3 year plan for a coach would be fair. You come in as a new coach inherit the coach they just fired players and have to try and get them to buy into your new system. As we have seen some just had to go. Then you recruit in an NIL world you have no control over and have to get them college ready and know for the most talented you have 3 years and their gone. Takes a good 4 to 5 years to field a complete team that you have brought here so that's where I come up with a 6 year sink or swim. I think he will be a swimmer if given that window.

 

[Gator Fever]

It doesn't really matter sadgator. I think most people would like to see what a long term coaching staff or army if you please can accomplish here, 3 to 4 years and out has been the main theme here. Now if we had an unlimited bankroll where we could but a veteran team every year I guess that the 3 year plan for a coach would be fair. You come in as a new coach inherit the coach they just fired players and have to try and get them to buy into your new system. As we have seen some just had to go. Then you recruit in an NIL world you have no control over and have to get them college ready and know for the most talented you have 3 years and their gone. Takes a good 4 to 5 years to field a complete team that you have brought here so that's where I come up with a 6 year sink or swim. I think he will be a swimmer if given that window.

No it doesnt imo and we arent recruiting bad. Show me the coaches that recruited at a decent level and still didnt have one decent season by at least year 3 after being hired and went on to be a long term success. I bet finding a good one that isnt even in the SEC would be hard if they dont show anything by at least year 3.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

No it doesnt imo and we arent recruiting bad. Show me the coaches that recruited at a decent level and still didnt have one decent season by at least year 3 after being hired and went on to be a long term success. I bet finding a good one that isnt even in the SEC would be hard if they dont show anything by at least year 3.

We have not recruited like this since Urban was at his best. Waller going live tonight

 

[micfan]

No it doesnt imo and we arent recruiting bad. Show me the coaches that recruited at a decent level and still didnt have one decent season by at least year 3 after being hired and went on to be a long term success. I bet finding a good one that isnt even in the SEC would be hard if they dont show anything by at least year 3.

Keep in mind year 1 is not but a couple of his players. So that should make your show anything year: year 4. 3 full years with his system and players

 

[Gator Fever]

Keep in mind year 1 is not but a couple of his players. So that should make your show anything year: year 4. 3 full years with his system and players

Well waiting for year 4 to have a decent season finally is saying you are accepting mediocrity and its why no other SEC power would ever do that. I still think Napier gets the ship righted in 2024 but I can show you many recent coaches that wont have 3 straight 6-6/7-5 or worse seasons and some are at schools that had to do real big rebuilds like Tenn and FSU etc. Napier has to fix the QB situation for 2024 if it looks bad in 2023 (cant count on a true freshman). He went out and got Mertz and Miller.

 

[PacoGator19]

If Napier keeps recruiting like he is right now he will most certainly be here after 2024.

 

[micfan]

Well waiting for year 4 to have a decent season finally is saying you are accepting mediocrity and its why no other SEC power would ever do that. I still think Napier gets the ship righted in 2024 but I can show you many recent coaches that wont have 3 straight 6-6/7-5 or worse seasons and some are at schools that had to do real big rebuilds like Tenn and FSU etc. Napier has to fix the QB situation for 2024 if it looks bad in 2023 (cant count on a true freshman). He went out and got Mertz and Miller.

He has only had one season and not his players and installing a new system. think he should get that mulligan. Recruiting 2023 class not bad think 2024 will end up better. Mertz and or Miller that Billy brought in , I agree need to step up. Can't keep judging Miller on one start. Mertz and Miller will be a competition come fall IMO. Can't put much weight on a spring scrimmage either. We will see. Can't wait.

 

[PacoGator19]

He has only had one season and not his players and installing a new system. think he should get that mulligan. Recruiting 2023 class not bad think 2024 will end up better. Mertz and or Miller that Billy brought in , I agree need to step up. Can't keep judging Miller on one start. Mertz and Miller will be a competition come fall IMO. Can't put much weight on a spring scrimmage either. We will see. Can't wait.

2023 recruiting class was very good. 2024 is going to end up better.

 

[Gator Fever]

He has only had one season and not his players and installing a new system. think he should get that mulligan. Recruiting 2023 class not bad think 2024 will end up better. Mertz and or Miller that Billy brought in , I agree need to step up. Can't keep judging Miller on one start. Mertz and Miller will be a competition come fall IMO. Can't put much weight on a spring scrimmage either. We will see. Can't wait.

"Mertz and Miller will be a competition"

🤣 That statement scares me but after seeing Miller under center 3 times in non-joke games even with 2 of the outings being spring games I doubt Mertz has to worry about being the starter in game 1.

 

[Nicktheslick]

Well waiting for year 4 to have a decent season finally is saying you are accepting mediocrity and its why no other SEC power would ever do that. I still think Napier gets the ship righted in 2024 but I can show you many recent coaches that wont have 3 straight 6-6/7-5 or worse seasons and some are at schools that had to do real big rebuilds like Tenn and FSU etc. Napier has to fix the QB situation for 2024 if it looks bad in 2023 (cant count on a true freshman). He went out and got Mertz and Miller.

We had one coach right here that did that. Mullen won a couple of NY6 bowls and throttled UGA once but it did not last because he didn’t build a recruiting base or a character culture. I’ll wait a few years for that.

 

[PacoGator19]

We had one coach right here that did that. Mullen won a couple of NY6 bowls and throttled UGA once but it did not last because he didn’t build a recruiting base or a character culture. I’ll wait a few years for that.

Very true and good point.

 

[sadgator]

Here’s what we know definitively folks…we had the #5 NFL draft pick QB…and we did absolutely nothing…other than beat Utah (miraculously) with him last year…

That is where we are…

 

[Countygator1]

Here’s what we know definitively folks…we had the #5 NFL draft pick QB…and we did absolutely nothing…other than beat Utah (miraculously) with him last year…

That is where we are…

In fairness AR wasn't drafted due to his performances, he was drafted because GMs and coaches have big egos and think they can coach up anyone. Love AR as he seems like a great kid, but I seriously doubt he will be in the league more than 2-3 seasons.

 

[sadgator]

Just sayin’…

 

[Countygator1]

Just sayin’…

I get it. Nappy head has a lot to prove. He's getting it done on the recruiting trail, but so did Muschamp.

 

[PacoGator19]

Here’s what we know definitively folks…we had the #5 NFL draft pick QB…and we did absolutely nothing…other than beat Utah (miraculously) with him last year…

That is where we are…

While true we mostly didn’t lose games due to our offense. However, AR was terrible in the UK and FSU losses. I mean heck Urban Meyer once lost 4 games in a season with Tebow at QB. As important as the QB position is it is still a team game.
Just sayin!

 

[Gator Fever]

Here’s what we know definitively folks…we had the #5 NFL draft pick QB…and we did absolutely nothing…other than beat Utah (miraculously) with him last year…

That is where we are…

That is a case where the draft has to be ignored though as we saw the QB play on the field. I kind of doubt Mertz can replace that 265 yards a game total though.

 

[ocalaman]

If 2023 ends with the team at 6-6, give or take a game in either direction, there will be the usual yammer for Napier to be fired. But, he's going to be given 4 years+ to get things turned around. The 2024 class he's assembling is on track to be one of the best in Gator history. He inherited a mess from Dan Mullen and told everyone in the beginning that this was a process that was going to take time. Gator Nation is not known for its patience, but if we are ever going to get back to where we once belonged (as the Beatles sang), patience has to be shown. And it will be from those who make the decisions, IMO.

 

[Jeff from Jax]

Here’s what we know definitively folks…we had the #5 NFL draft pick QB…and we did absolutely nothing…other than beat Utah (miraculously) with him last year…

That is where we are…

Sad,

How could it be miraculous ?

You predicted the win - remember ?

 

[sadgator]

Miraculous in that we damn near almost lost it if not for Burney’s amazing pick.

 

[gatorshime]

So, Utah returns it’s QB who is pretty damn good and most of both sides of the ball, think we win out there? VS. U.T.? LSU and FSU? Vandy this year?