The End of Football

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Is coming:

"A neuropathologist has examined the brains of 111 N.F.L. players — and 110 were found to have C.T.E., the degenerative disease linked to repeated blows to the head."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html?smid=tw-share​

It's hard to see this not having a massive impact on college football. Parents will not want their kids to play any more. Politicians will start banning children from playing anything other than tag/flag football. Combine the CTE concerns with changes to television and sports viewership among young people and you have all of the markings of a major bubble burst.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I predict that ten years from now, no college football coach will be making 5+ million, and live attendance will be a fraction of what it was at its peak.

It was fun, but I think we are coming to the end of an era.

 

[Dannygator1989]

Is coming:

"A neuropathologist has examined the brains of 111 N.F.L. players — and 110 were found to have C.T.E., the degenerative disease linked to repeated blows to the head."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html?smid=tw-share​

It's hard to see this not having a massive impact on college football. Parents will not want their kids to play any more. Politicians will start banning children from playing anything other than tag/flag football. Combine the CTE concerns with changes to television and sports viewership among young people and you have all of the markings of a major bubble burst.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I predict that ten years from now, no college football coach will be making 5+ million, and live attendance will be a fraction of what it was at its peak.

It was fun, but I think we are coming to the end of an era.

It's possible, but there's so much money in it I think you're going to see massive funding into RD for safety.

 

[TJtheGator]

It's possible, but there's so much money in it I think you're going to see massive funding into RD for safety.

Or players being made to sign elaborate contracts recognizing the dangers and ridding the NFL of all liability. Of course this will mean bigger salaries and payouts, which will all get passed on to the paying customer. So it will be like ancient Rome: want to watch men battle to the death first hand? Pay up.

 

[TJtheGator]

After reading the article again, gotta love this nugget:

"One of his teammates was Jerry Jones, now the owner of the Dallas Cowboys. Jones has rejected the belief that there is a link between football and C.T.E."

Well no joke! He stands to lose the most along with the other 30 NFL owners and the city of Green Bay, WI.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Yep. This might be the end of it as we know it. Plus interest in football as been decreasing for some time.

Ironic that the problem is all equipment related. As helmets have gotten better, head collisions have become more fierce.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Maybe I'm nuts, but I predict that ten years from now, no college football coach will be making 5+ million, and live attendance will be a fraction of what it was at its peak.

It was fun, but I think we are coming to the end of an era.

I guess it is a good thing that Florida is good in both basketball and baseball. As well as a host of other sports.

 

[MJWilliamson]

About 1,300 former players have died since the B.U. group began examining brains. So even if every one of the other 1,200 players would have tested negative — which even the heartiest skeptics would agree could not possibly be the case — the minimum C.T.E. prevalence would be close to 9 percent, vastly higher than in the general population.​

 

[GatorTheo]

I think the NFL and major college ball will be around for a long time. Between educated parents and liability issues, I can see youth football dropping off.

 

[46885]

if the government was so concerned about it's peoples well being over money, they'd stop making trillions in shit fast food, accessible and cheap alcohol and tobacco over the counter... Which all kill millions a year

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

The financial liability is what will finally kill football, as we know it.

Don't be surprised when some of these players start suing not only the NFL, but also individual universities, and possibly even former coaching staff. As soon as a former player wins a big lawsuit against a Bama or an Ohio State, colleges will suddenly have little choice but to cancel their programs -- or drastically change them somehow to reduce the risk of CTE. But a 99% incidence rate is so thoroughly damning. I still have difficulty believing it. No helmet in the world can reduce the CTE risk from >99% to <1%. I don't know how you get around that.

Change has a funny way of happening slowly, making it easy to deny, until it hits critical mass where the house of cards suddenly collapses. Stock markets and heart disease have this in common.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

if the government was so concerned about it's peoples well being over money, they'd stop making trillions in shit fast food, accessible and cheap alcohol and tobacco over the counter... Which all kill millions a year

Tobacco was successfully sued for hundreds of billions. The only reason why tobacco companies still exist is because the government needs them to pay their legal settlement. Also, apparently people in China still like to smoke.

 

[46885]

people will never stop doing the cheap stuff that kills them, willingly... Thats too much money for them to pass up, it's like getting pissed at the millionaire drug kingpins for selling the dope on the street that kills thousands... it's the upper echelons fault, and they allow it all deliberately... you could never bankrupt tobacco and alcohol companies, i mean look no further than this board, they are still fooling millions of humans in 2017 about the dangers that don't exist from an herb that keeps you from getting sick from all these things...

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

I'm not saying that football with be banned (except maybe in small jurisdictions for children). I'm saying that colleges will shut down their programs due to liability issues (being sued by former players).

 

[bradleygator]

Agree that liability will put the big dent in football's economics. Someone will hit the league or a team for money that hurts and there will be a sprint to the courthouse. The leagues franchises are likely pretty far overvalued, because television revenue has probably peaked and the market for franchises has been pricing the concussion risk basically at 0. If there is a correction, some people are going to get hurt real bad.

 

[46885]

They know what they are signing up for, and get paid 10 times the amount of everyone else while they are doing it...

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

They know what they are signing up for, and get paid 10 times the amount of everyone else while they are doing it...

No one knew about CTE until fairly recently. And college players aren't generally getting paid.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Coal miners know that the coal mine could potentially collapse on them while they're working. Do you think this protects the coal companies from liability?

 

[Gator Fever]

It will be around until enough people stop wanting it. A lot of young people now aren't into watching football like they were years ago. Its good for the next 20 years at least.

 

[bradleygator]

They know what they are signing up for, and get paid 10 times the amount of everyone else while they are doing it...

This is true, and the reason why no team/league has gotten murdered in court. But eventually a jury will find that the league and the teams did know how big the concussion risks were and either ignored it or suppressed it. Some team dr. Is going to get exposed as a total fraud who got a big paycheck to put concussed players in harms way, and that will be the end of it.

 

[Gator Fever]

Coal miners know that the coal mine could potentially collapse on them while they're working. Do you think this protects the coal companies from liability?

People didn't get rich from their spouses dying of black lung. They were given steady payments but didn't make out like bandits. They knew the risk of working there.

 

[bradleygator]

Coal miners know that the coal mine could potentially collapse on them while they're working. Do you think this protects the coal companies from liability?

Asbestos was in absolutely everything for a century, and the manufacturers dodged huge liability for a long time by first arguing that nobody knew and then arguing assumption of risk, but finally all of their research into the negative health effects was exposed and that was the end of it.

 

[Gator Fever]

This is true, and the reason why no team/league has gotten murdered in court. But eventually a jury will find that the league and the teams did know how big the concussion risks were and either ignored it or suppressed it. Some team dr. Is going to get exposed as a total fraud who got a big paycheck to put concussed players in harms way, and that will be the end of it.

I doubt it. They have already done a bunch of changes with lawsuits in mind and make the players aware of the issues. They will pay out some more but it won't put the league in any danger.

 

[46885]

No one knew about CTE until fairly recently. And college players aren't generally getting paid.

anyone in a contact sport like this or boxing is not stupid enough not to know their life is at risk, short and long term... no matter what lies we hear players say in court in the future

 

[46885]

Asbestos was in absolutely everything for a century, and the manufacturers dodged huge liability for a long time by first arguing that nobody knew and then arguing assumption of risk, but finally all of their research into the negative health effects was exposed and that was the end of it.

The world has done plenty of things knowing they are killing people and cover it up to make money, it's indirect genocide of the lower level of humans... Like that Erin Brockovich case with the drinking water being poison and giving people terminal cancer with awful tumors and their insides rotting out slowly over time... The water company kept making their money, which in turn paid for the doctors money coming in treating these people covering it up, made billions and then the cost of their other loved ones inevitably falling ill then dying.. Billions all around from the water company remaining in business, the doctors, pediatricians, hospital bills, then inevitably the funeral bills... The powers that be are a beautiful piece of work, and always will be...

 

[sadgator]

So long as there is a potential lottery ticket at the end of the road, "mamas" ain't pullin' their son(s) out of youth football no matter the risks...

That being said, if Florida ever played Tennessee in flag football...sadgator would root just as hard to beat them as he does in our current sport...

 

[46885]

the nfl ain't far off from it already with flag

 

[46885]

 

[GatorTheo]

They know what they are signing up for, and get paid 10 times the amount of everyone else while they are doing it...

Many football players are young and not overly bright. I'm not sure they truly understand what they are signing up for.

 

[fsu939913]

Is coming:

"A neuropathologist has examined the brains of 111 N.F.L. players — and 110 were found to have C.T.E., the degenerative disease linked to repeated blows to the head."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/25/sports/football/nfl-cte.html?smid=tw-share​

It's hard to see this not having a massive impact on college football. Parents will not want their kids to play any more. Politicians will start banning children from playing anything other than tag/flag football. Combine the CTE concerns with changes to television and sports viewership among young people and you have all of the markings of a major bubble burst.

Maybe I'm nuts, but I predict that ten years from now, no college football coach will be making 5+ million, and live attendance will be a fraction of what it was at its peak.

It was fun, but I think we are coming to the end of an era.

One word.... Money. Its not going anywhere

 

[fsu939913]

The rule changes should help and they need new technology on the helmets. Make sure no one is on steroids. All that will have a positive effect

 

[bradleygator]

The rule changes are window dressing. They take away the high profile hits to stationary qbs and receivers stretched out for the ball, but they do nothing for the high impact contacts that happen every play: a blocking back or lineman taking out a linebacker, a linebacker blitzing into a lineman, receivers cracking down on linebackers and safeties. Concussions happen all game every game.

 

[bradleygator]

Actually the safest helmet would be no helmet. No matter how much padding you put in a helmet, a sudden stop collision is still going to cause the brain to hit the skull. Better padded helmets actually increase collisions, because the players feel safer and throw their bodies around more. To really stop concussions, you have to stop collisions, which I'm not sure you can do. Reducing he size and speed of the players would help, but I don't know how you do that either.

 

[PacoGator19]

Football, especially youth football has already taken a hit because parents don't want their children to play due to these health concerns. I'm in agreement that the downfall has already started happening. I also don't think football is as popular as it used to be. Less and less people are actually attending the games and less and less kids are playing it.

Changing the helmets aren't going to make that much of a difference to be honest. The more safe you try to make the sport the more these guys throw their bodies around and use them as weapons

 

[fsu939913]

The rule changes are window dressing. They take away the high profile hits to stationary qbs and receivers stretched out for the ball, but they do nothing for the high impact contacts that happen every play: a blocking back or lineman taking out a linebacker, a linebacker blitzing into a lineman, receivers cracking down on linebackers and safeties. Concussions happen all game every game.

The rule changes do help. They need to find somethign to help the lineman

 

[oozie7]

I know youth participation is dropping but I don't really see it at the HS and college level. What I'm seeing is parents saying ok knowing what we know about concussions and other injuries we'll wait to let them play in HS to reduce the wear and tear and if they're good enough they'll still get noticed.

As long as there's still millions of dollars for bait people are still gonna play. Plus of all the other sports your chances of making it is higher in football if for no other reason than the amount of roster spots available. 85 in college, 53 in the pros. I don't think things like declining attendance at games has to do with lack of interest...that's just people being able to get a better and cheaper experience elsewhere. Mainly at a bar or at your crib in front of a big screen TV.

 

[PacoGator19]

I don't think things like declining attendance at games has to do with lack of interest...that's just people being able to get a better and cheaper experience elsewhere. Mainly at a bar or at your crib in front of a big screen TV.

Yes but people not attending games is lost revenue for the school or franchise and lost revenue for the areas around it that typically can benefit from a sporting event. If schools and franchises aren't making enough money then they will put less into the product therefore interest will also decline. It is getting more and more costly to run a football program and if lawsuits start popping up as well then good luck.

Whether anybody really wants to admit it or not football isn't as popular as it was 5-10 years ago.

Also if kids aren't playing it at the youth level that means they are also likely playing another sport instead. They aren't all just all of a sudden going to drop the sport they have been playing for years to pick up a sport they have hardly played once they get to high school.

Parents are flat out saying they don't want their kids anywhere near a tackle football league (Pop Warner) etc. due to the perceived head injury risks. It certainly didn't used to be that way. As the increased knowledge & information has come out on CTE & head injuries so has the decline of participation in youth football.

There are Pop Warner programs in the Orlando area that are struggling to put teams together due to low numbers.

 

[Dannygator1989]

I know youth participation is dropping but I don't really see it at the HS and college level. What I'm seeing is parents saying ok knowing what we know about concussions and other injuries we'll wait to let them play in HS to reduce the wear and tear and if they're good enough they'll still get noticed.

As long as there's still millions of dollars for bait people are still gonna play. Plus of all the other sports your chances of making it is higher in football if for no other reason than the amount of roster spots available. 85 in college, 53 in the pros. I don't think things like declining attendance at games has to do with lack of interest...that's just people being able to get a better and cheaper experience elsewhere. Mainly at a bar or at your crib in front of a big screen TV.

Completely agreed.

 

[oozie7]

Yes but people not attending games is lost revenue for the school or franchise and lost revenue for the areas around it that typically can benefit from a sporting event. If schools and franchises aren't making enough money then they will put less into the product therefore interest will also decline. It is getting more and more costly to run a football program and if lawsuits start popping up as well then good luck.

Whether anybody really wants to admit it or not football isn't as popular as it was 5-10 years ago.

Also if kids aren't playing it at the youth level that means they are also likely playing another sport instead. They aren't all just all of a sudden going to drop the sport they have been playing for years to pick up a sport they have hardly played once they get to high school.

Parents are flat out saying they don't want their kids anywhere near a tackle football league (Pop Warner) etc. due to the perceived head injury risks. It certainly didn't used to be that way. As the increased knowledge & information has come out on CTE & head injuries so has the decline of participation in youth football.

There are Pop Warner programs in the Orlando area that are struggling to put teams together due to low numbers.

As far as revenue, declining attendance won't affect them THAT much. It's just a new paradigm, the money has shifted to TV rights as opposed to schools/franchises relying on attendance. People are just taking in the product differently. Just look at SEC teams as example, they're making more money than they ever have even though attendance is declining every year and it's because of their TV deal. And schools are pouring more into facilities than they ever have too, we have an arms race. Now I think eventually that can't continue and it pops but all the money is in tv.

On the youth participation point...kids have always played multiple sports. Just using myself as an example I did soccer, track, basketball, and football and only focused on football probably sophomore year of HS when I saw I could go to college. I don't think that experience is that uncommon...kids play multiple sports until they find their niche then pick one to focus on. Now instead of football being one of those four earlier on though a lot of the parents (and this is just my experience volunteering and stuff) are saying I don't want my son playing till HS which is when you'd expect kids to start finding their niche anyway. In the meantime they play other sports like they always have. Now of course you're right that during that time of not playing some kids might fall in love with other sports and never give football a try, but then I'd say those kids were probably never gonna play football to begin with. Keep in mind the demographic that's playing football too, it's not affluent kids with options. Football is still #1 in every hood with basketball #2 and because of height requirements for basketball all the elite athletes are still going to gravitate towards football.

Lastly, how are we defining popularity? NFL and CFB ratings dominate the entertainment segment. The values on NFL franchises are ridiculous and CFB and recruiting is a year round thing people follow. The super bowl for example is usually the most watched sporting event every year and #2 usually isn't that close. Things like coaching salaries are exploding exactly because of the money and interest in the product. 20 years ago the top coaches made 2 mil, now mediocre ones make 5.

 

[SeaPA]

The financial liability is what will finally kill football, as we know it.

Don't be surprised when some of these players start suing not only the NFL, but also individual universities, and possibly even former coaching staff. As soon as a former player wins a big lawsuit against a Bama or an Ohio State, colleges will suddenly have little choice but to cancel their programs -- or drastically change them somehow to reduce the risk of CTE. But a 99% incidence rate is so thoroughly damning. I still have difficulty believing it. No helmet in the world can reduce the CTE risk from >99% to <1%. I don't know how you get around that.

Change has a funny way of happening slowly, making it easy to deny, until it hits critical mass where the house of cards suddenly collapses. Stock markets and heart disease have this in common.

But the universities are shielded from crushing lawsuits, since the payout is limited to $200k under "sovereign immunity."

 

[tbbuc99]

Youth flag football till 8th grade to teach basics of football , padded JV squad for most 9-10 graders and Varsity for 11-12. This would be max 4 years 99% of kids who play because not much more than 1% of all kids who played HS ball go on to college to play. It would help I'd imagine.