I saw the Sowell video and I honestly think he's one of the great economic minds of our time, but economists disagree all of the time. See below.
Trump did very similar things in 2018 and the economy was rolling prior to Covid. It's too simplistic to say tariffs always have the same effect on the economy, and a dip in the stock market is a reaction, it's not realized.
I don't understand how altering import/exports, which are less than 15% of our GDP, is going to tank the global economy. 50 countries have already come to the table to negotiate (and only 2 are playing hardball), and we only enacted 1/2 of the tariffs they've placed on us. If tariffs always lead to a recession, how was the economy operating with the tariffs that were already in place?
We're gonna have let this play out but early returns look exceedingly positive.
"Paul Krugman writes that protectionism does not lead to recessions. According to him, the decrease in imports (which can be obtained by the introduction of tariffs) has an expansionary effect, i.e. favorable to growth. Thus in a trade war, since exports and imports will decrease equally, for the whole world, the negative effect of a decrease in exports will be compensated by the expansionary effect of a decrease in imports. A trade war therefore does not cause a recession. Furthermore, he notes that the Smoot–Hawley tariff did not cause the Great Depression. The decline in trade between 1929 and 1933 "was almost entirely a consequence of the Depression, not a cause. Trade barriers were a response to the Depression, in part a consequence of deflation."[97]"
