So did we learn anything from Mac today?
- Thread starter sadgator
- Start date
The fact it might even be a pick em game is telling. We're coming off being in the title game of the toughest conference, just won a bowl game, return a bunch starters, and are in a pick em game against a team who lost over 30 seniors and got holes all over the place.
Peppers didn't play that game but that was a wild game that went to the wire. You have to beat them with huge plays when you get the chance. I think your QB only completed about 1/3 of his passes but some were really long and that RB got free a few times.
I am not sure about the "telling" part, other than bettor perception can often be much different that reality.
For example, in the NC game, Alabama opened against Clemons better than a TD and extra point favorite, but moved down to 6.5 points at game time. To lose by 4 means the betting public was off by more than 10 points. That is a pretty big miss.
No I agree with everything you're saying and that was kinda my point. The 'telling' part was in regards to how the bettors view the two staffs. Because I can't see any other reason for Michigan to be favored or in a pick em except for the fact that they're giving Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt. We're supposed to be in that position.
Betting lines are determined by who is betting where and how much, and not necessarily by how good either team is.
Those setting the betting line are doing so to make their money, nothing more.
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Coming in to a complete cluster on the offensive side, to the point that the experts said that he'd be lucky to even qualify for a bowl game, and he'd finish 5th in the SECe. (10-4 SECe-C)
Then his 2nd year, the experts said that the best Gator fans could hope for was 7-8 wins and 3rd in the SECe. But he still won the SECe, and he still went 9-4, even after a canceled sure 10th win game.
Two seasons as the SECe-C. No other coach anywhere in the SEC has ever done that his 1st two seasons.
Not Spurrier, not Saban, not Meyer, not Myles, no freakin' body....
And he has had to deal with above average injuries his 1st 2 season, and 4 different starting QB's.
19-8 Overall
13 - 3 SEC
11-1 in the SWAMP
But of course, none of that counts for the always 'Doom and Gloomers' of the world.
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WoW! I guess it's a really good thing that he didn't perform at the 'EXPERTS' projected levels of 6 wins, then 7 wins in his 1st 2 seasons....
Ole Fat Drooley is right, nobody suffers winning like Gator fans....
Those setting the betting line are doing so to make their money, nothing more.
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Coming in to a complete cluster on the offensive side, to the point that the experts said that he'd be lucky to even qualify for a bowl game, and he'd finish 5th in the SECe. (10-4 SECe-C)
Then his 2nd year, the experts said that the best Gator fans could hope for was 7-8 wins and 3rd in the SECe. But he still won the SECe, and he still went 9-4, even after a canceled sure 10th win game.
Two seasons as the SECe-C. No other coach anywhere in the SEC has ever done that his 1st two seasons.
Not Spurrier, not Saban, not Meyer, not Myles, no freakin' body....
And he has had to deal with above average injuries his 1st 2 season, and 4 different starting QB's.
19-8 Overall
13 - 3 SEC
11-1 in the SWAMP
But of course, none of that counts for the always 'Doom and Gloomers' of the world.
===========
WoW! I guess it's a really good thing that he didn't perform at the 'EXPERTS' projected levels of 6 wins, then 7 wins in his 1st 2 seasons....
Ole Fat Drooley is right, nobody suffers winning like Gator fans....
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You'd be a lot more tired hearing about it if we hadn't won the East the past two years.
And Mac might not have the "IT," but at least he knows how to get there...so he's got "THAT."
Betting lines are determined by who is betting where and how much, and not necessarily by how good either team is.
Those setting the betting line are doing so to make their money, nothing more.
-------
Coming in to a complete cluster on the offensive side, to the point that the experts said that he'd be lucky to even qualify for a bowl game, and he'd finish 5th in the SECe. (10-4 SECe-C)
Then his 2nd year, the experts said that the best Gator fans could hope for was 7-8 wins and 3rd in the SECe. But he still won the SECe, and he still went 9-4, even after a canceled sure 10th win game.
Two seasons as the SECe-C. No other coach anywhere in the SEC has ever done that his 1st two seasons.
Not Spurrier, not Saban, not Meyer, not Myles, no freakin' body....
And he has had to deal with above average injuries his 1st 2 season, and 4 different starting QB's.
19-8 Overall
13 - 3 SEC
11-1 in the SWAMP
But of course, none of that counts for the always 'Doom and Gloomers' of the world.
===========
WoW! I guess it's a really good thing that he didn't perform at the 'EXPERTS' projected levels of 6 wins, then 7 wins in his 1st 2 seasons....
You fogot his record against ranked teams, throw that in there for good measure
The first week and bowl season is the best time to make money on bowl games, either more evenly matched teams or the "better" perceived teams from separate conferences meet up finally and the lines are always off, way off.. It's how i always made my money and these games continue to be the easiest to call, because the "good" matchups end up in more blowouts one sided than people pay attention to over the years, but bettors do and guys like Phil Steele so he knows what he's talking about...
Early games and bowl games are built on nothing but one thing and how the lines are set, "public perception" and whatever line they need to set to get exactly as close to even action as they can on both sides from the betting public... I just remember laughing at lines over the years, like OSU (-7) over us in the NC game and I remember talking to my grandfather who grew up in Ohio and was an engineer and got his degree from OSU, they all thought the line was too low, and that's before the average American had any idea their brand of football up there was nowhere near the style and physicality up front that the SEC 's was... and most of them still don't because all they see is average football and think it's the days of old and they are the best but it isn't like that anymore and the talent is far greater down south and continues to be, in the draft, in recruiting class rankings etc... That was my biggest wager at the time for 400 with the 7 and 100 on the ML to win 220, so being at the game and everything while hearing their fans down talk us classless as they were made it all the more great, and every second of it, by the end I was glad they ran the opening kick back spotted their 7 points with them waving bye in our fans faces and "yall couldn't even beat Auburn" while I already knew auburn and about 4 other teams would have beaten them too... The fact that they think Tedd Ginn would have erased our front four tossing their fat lunch ladies around like cows against gorillas is pure ignorance mixed with denial..but Urban has always known the talent gap and difference and recruits those guys for them now which is how they actually finally compete and beat Saban once.. but could not do that sort of thing consistently on an average of 10 games, but he's a perfect one shot big game coach
but as for the lines and other games, my largest bet after that was the very next year again fading ohio state against LSU laying the 10, even when OSU got up 10 and up 20 against my points my dad called me panicking because i told him to put a grand on the game, needless to say about 30 minutes later the game quickly became a laugher and everyone still saw the talent difference and all that talk about being tougher and "ready this time" whatever that means by disrespecting our team even more still from the year prior and delusion... herbstreit was damn near in tears trying to stick up for osu not being some 2nd rate slow team from up north, but they were, and not even close, I mean they were bad enough that Les Miles with 2 losses to f'in kentucky and arkansas in their last game of the regular season still got in and could have had 4-5 losses and to us just shredded them apart and they had OSU at #1 again before the game lol...
Over the years I always racked up the most on the first big games and the last ones, like the Clemson Bama game in 08 when Saban put bama back on the map and nations radar, that game started it all for them and they were GETTING seven just like UF was in the game against OSU just based sheer on perception and overrated teams from the YEAR PRIOR.. Michigan is nothing more than that as favorite in this game as will their pre season ranking be, it will only help us in the end.. I said about a month or more ago that this could be Macs game like Saban had to get us back against Clemson in 08 on a neutral field. Perception from the year before is the biggest killer and gimmes on these built up week one games, and bowl games are the easiest because you already know everything about the teams, how they play and are coached from the first 12-13 games and how they match up.. I would take Florida and the points in our first game for sure and the under, unless they set it too low under 41 or something.. My other largest bet from that same 07 season was the over in our bowl game with Michigan because i knew our defense was the worst in school history statistically with the 9 replaced starters from our title team and they had no prayer of stopping ours with Tebows Heisman year and percy and the gang... and their problem wasn't scoring they had nfl guys at Qb, WR and some good veteran backs like Mike hart, they just couldn't stop anything the same way all the big ten teams couldn't back then, and many still today...
Peppers and Derwin did not play. But u r right. Francois had a rough game. They had a good defense and plenty of time to prepare. Hopefully u guys can throw a few different looks at them and take advantage
Betting lines are determined by who is betting where and how much, and not necessarily by how good either team is.
Those setting the betting line are doing so to make their money, nothing more.
-------
Coming in to a complete cluster on the offensive side, to the point that the experts said that he'd be lucky to even qualify for a bowl game, and he'd finish 5th in the SECe. (10-4 SECe-C)
Then his 2nd year, the experts said that the best Gator fans could hope for was 7-8 wins and 3rd in the SECe. But he still won the SECe, and he still went 9-4, even after a canceled sure 10th win game.
Two seasons as the SECe-C. No other coach anywhere in the SEC has ever done that his 1st two seasons.
Not Spurrier, not Saban, not Meyer, not Myles, no freakin' body....
And he has had to deal with above average injuries his 1st 2 season, and 4 different starting QB's.
19-8 Overall
13 - 3 SEC
11-1 in the SWAMP
But of course, none of that counts for the always 'Doom and Gloomers' of the world.
===========
WoW! I guess it's a really good thing that he didn't perform at the 'EXPERTS' projected levels of 6 wins, then 7 wins in his 1st 2 seasons....
Didnt u get the reschsduled game with Lsu or r u talking about another game?
Not really. My expectation for a new coach is always simple the first 1-2 years. Recruit really well, show improvement and build towards year 3 and 4. When it comes to Mac recruiting is mediocre at best and the offense somehow got worse in year 2. That's why he still has a question mark over his head.
Werent the gators top 10 inrecruitijg both yrs he was here? I agree recruiting is the biggeat thing.
No. Just outside the top 10. I don't care about that as much as not meeting needs though.
We are very inexperienced and thin on the DL. We are loaded with true SDE but thin at DT and WDE and a lot of guys that will play those spots are going to be playing out of position
Man that is what u guys r known for too. That god tho, sick of seeing our o line pulverized by u
QB. Signed none the first year (understandable since it's a transition class), 2 known projects the second class, and none again in year 3 (don't see Toney staying there) which is why we need a grand transfer again.
DT, we signed none the first two years which is why we'll be depending on true freshmen to be backups there this year. OL, we've had numbers but just got a lot of filler. Our top backup is probably gonna be a true freshman again. That's off the top of my head.
It's almost like some fans forget that we had 6 scholarship lineman when the guy came in and how BAD our offensive talent was and has been. Hell everyone was talking about if we won 8+ games the last 2 years it would be a miracle...guess what we did better than that and Mac has made some great moves in rebuilding the talent...he's done a good job in recruiting...all the while UF isn't the same program that players wanted to go to in the 90's or 2,000's. We are viewed by top recruits differently and that's a fact. Outside of Insta being a delirious fan and thinking so...almost NOBODY thought that we would win the east the last 2 years but we did and Mac gets a lot of credit for that. People talk about how..."oh we got killed by Bama"...I be the tune would be a whole lot worse had we lost to Tennessee or whoever else and never made the game.
I'm not defending the guys offense...it has been pretty flat and we still don't have a QB at all. Yeah we've gotten our doors kicked in by Bama and FSU but honestly they have been much better teams....but we did beat LSU in their house last year too and it doesn't matter how we've won....we've exceeded everyone's preseason expectation. I don't really understand how Gator fans forget that. We'll see what happens but IMO he has 2 more years to get it straight. I hope we see an offense that can score some points and beat ranked teams.
I really don't know about the idea that there are very few good QB's out there and we need to fight to get one of the few good ones.
If you said ELITE, well then, yeah. But when have we ever needed a top 5 draft pick QB to be successful? My issue is we play these mid majors all the time, and they almost always seem to have a better QB than us. I can see occasionally playing a small school with a better QB, but it should happen once or twice a decade, not a year. But their guys are usually 2 or 3 star guys who got developed into good players, while we have 4 or 5 stars who can't stop staring at their primary receiver. Where is our development? This is the question I keep circling back to.
Yep, all about development. Matter of fact, it's never been easier to score points and move the ball with all these rules favoring offenses. Then you factor in that unlike a decade or more ago young QB's are getting trained from a much younger age and throwing the ball all over the field in HS and playing in 7-on-7's year round and having personal QB coaches. It's easier now to find and develop a QB unlike years ago when you had to watch a HS kid play in a wing-t and try to project whether they could play QB at the next level or not. That's why I keep saying it doesn't take that long anymore. Not to be elite because we don't have the talent for that, but just to be above average. Teams all over the country find ways to give their QB easy completions and score points.
...And it has been happening now under different tenures of different coaches. That is the most maddening thing.
Absolutely agree with you that this is a critical year in which we have every right to expect to see offensive improvement. sadgator thinks we will...fingers crossed.
...and don't forget...Steve is back in town now...so hopefully he has been "accidentally" dropping Post It Notes with plays drawn on them in the halls.
Yep. Yepyepyep.
I'll say this. When a new coach comes in, I don't care, we recruit well enough just in general to have talent on the team. We should be functional on offense and defense right away, I can see lack of depth causing problems on special teams for a couple of years.
And when I say functional, I don't mean thrashing LSU and Bama, I mean not looking overmatched against FA fricking U.
The Gators will lose two 2016 homes games — about $7.8 million in projected revenue from ticket sales alone — but likely will recoup some of that through insurance.
They (UF) gets one game back as an away game @ LSU.
UF and LSU had to buy out non-conference opponents scheduled for that Saturday: South Alabama for LSU and Presbyterian for Florida.
While neither of those lost games was an important game in the larger scheme of things, they were sure wins for both teams and money games that were lost and cost. --- That answers your question.
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Now, before anyone jumps on the low quality of those UF/LSU 2016 lost opponents, just remember this:
Tennis-sea played both AppSt and TnTech.
UGA played both LaLaf and NicSt
AU played both ArkSt and AlaA&M
The Playoff teams played:
UA played both Kent and TnChatt
Wash played both Idaho and PortSt
tOSU played both Tulsa and BGSU
Clem played both Troy and SCaSt
Mich played both UH and UCF, & 3 teams that were 2-10, 3-9, 3-9.
Okla played both LaMon and lost to freakin' 2nd tier Houston while having a total of 6 losing record opponents.
I'll give FSU credit for playing what was likely their best SoS in their entire history with 4-8 Syr, 5-7 MS and CharlestonSo being their weak-sister opponents.
UF's 2016 SoS was not as tough as FSU's for a change, but the Gator's still played 10 Bowl teams.
And the 'weak' SECe put 6 of their 7 teams into bowl games, only 4-8 Mizz missed out.
For 2017, UF rebounds on SoS with these 4 OoC opponents:
Mich, N.Colo, UAB, FSU.
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Possible Conference Championship Games/Opponents:
UF vs UA or maybe LSU/AU vs UGA/Tn
tOSU vs Mich or maybe PSU vs Wis?
USC vs Wash or maybe Ore vs Stanford?
FSU vs Clem or maybe VaTech vs UL?
Okla vs Nobody, their imploding has-been Conf no longer has one.
Anyone with guesses on Conf. Championship games for 2017?
So u nvr played pres? They should just give u the win. I forgot that wasnt played on ooen dates. Thanks for the reminder.
Also i dont think fsu can play clemson in in ACCCG, we r in same division.
sadgator simply can't tell you how cheated he feels that he never got to see Florida settle it on the field with Presbyterian.
But I never feel cheated by the top quality and totally relevant posts of the genius types here...
Last year, I really liked incoming Fr RB Lamical Perine.
This year, I really, really like incoming Fr RB Malik Davis, and here's why:
Ray-Ray McCloud's rushing record is 5,783 HS career yds.
Davis finished his HS career with 7,029 rushing yards. He only played in 6 full games last season and he missed 7 total games in previous years. Not to bad, huh?
https://www.seccountry.com/florida/next-generation-malik-davis
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Rushing:
In 2015, the Gators 113th in FBS in yds/gm. Taylor/Scarlett
In 2016, the Gators were again 113th, averaging 128.2 yds/gm. Scarlett/others
In their 8 losses the Gators averaged just 2.4 yards per carry.
The passing offense was terrible, everyone says so.
Yds/Gm 215.8 - 18 TD's
The rushing offense was what then?
Yds/Gm 128.2 - 11 TD's
QB's were terrible but lead RB Scarlett was wonderful???
Scarlett:
Tn 10 for 44 - 4.4 ypc
VU 12 for 55 - 4.6 ypc
UGA 26 for 93 - 3.6 ypc
Ark 5 for 15 - 3.0 ypc
FSU 14 for 53 - 3.8 ypc
UA 11 for 17 - 1.5 ypc
So let's make Scarlett the lead/primary RB and give him all the carries this season, while we let those other 4 much lesser RB's just rot on the bench. Perfect sense....
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Candidates for crappy offense dissing on include:
QB's - OL - Play Calls - RB's.
Plus failure to get open, inconsistency, with to many drops by WR's & TE's.
So pick your least favorite group(s) bias and diss away...
Forgetting of course: 19-8, 13-3, 11-1, with B-2-B SECe-C's.
While recovering from the massive offensive cluster that was left for SEC CoY Mc....
iG Summary: It will take a TOTAL TEAM EFFORT to turn the offense around in 2017. I don't think that any of them will drag their feet in the effort, so GooooooooGATORS!
This year, I really, really like incoming Fr RB Malik Davis, and here's why:
Ray-Ray McCloud's rushing record is 5,783 HS career yds.
Davis finished his HS career with 7,029 rushing yards. He only played in 6 full games last season and he missed 7 total games in previous years. Not to bad, huh?
https://www.seccountry.com/florida/next-generation-malik-davis
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Rushing:
In 2015, the Gators 113th in FBS in yds/gm. Taylor/Scarlett
In 2016, the Gators were again 113th, averaging 128.2 yds/gm. Scarlett/others
In their 8 losses the Gators averaged just 2.4 yards per carry.
The passing offense was terrible, everyone says so.
Yds/Gm 215.8 - 18 TD's
The rushing offense was what then?
Yds/Gm 128.2 - 11 TD's
QB's were terrible but lead RB Scarlett was wonderful???
Scarlett:
Tn 10 for 44 - 4.4 ypc
VU 12 for 55 - 4.6 ypc
UGA 26 for 93 - 3.6 ypc
Ark 5 for 15 - 3.0 ypc
FSU 14 for 53 - 3.8 ypc
UA 11 for 17 - 1.5 ypc
So let's make Scarlett the lead/primary RB and give him all the carries this season, while we let those other 4 much lesser RB's just rot on the bench. Perfect sense....
==========
Candidates for crappy offense dissing on include:
QB's - OL - Play Calls - RB's.
Plus failure to get open, inconsistency, with to many drops by WR's & TE's.
So pick your least favorite group(s) bias and diss away...
Forgetting of course: 19-8, 13-3, 11-1, with B-2-B SECe-C's.
While recovering from the massive offensive cluster that was left for SEC CoY Mc....
iG Summary: It will take a TOTAL TEAM EFFORT to turn the offense around in 2017. I don't think that any of them will drag their feet in the effort, so GooooooooGATORS!
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