Prediction time!

[kalimgoodman]

I am so excited for this to be OVER.

I seriously believe that Trump is the favorite and I won't be shocked if he wins. I don't subscribe to he has no chance or Harris has no chance. Now I do expect if Trump loses, we will have to hear about cheating. That is pretty much baked into Trumpism. My heart says Harris and my head says Trump. With that, since I REALLY want Trump to lose, Ill follow my heart.

My Predictions for the swing states;

Mich - Harris
Wis - Harris
PA - Harris
NC - Trump
UGA - Harris
Arz - Trump
Nev - Trump

That would give Harris ~286 EVs. I don't see any states being a surprise that isn't universally viewed as a swing state. I do expect Harris to win the popular vote no matter what, by about 4%. I don't see Trump getting over 47% of the popular vote, he seems to be stuck there and that could be his ceiling.

Lastly, the winner of the presidency wins the house and the senate is a lock for the Republicans. I am guessing 50/50 at worse and 51/49 Rs at best.

 

[gator1776]

So I see you’re predicting very effective cheating because that’s the only way that would happen

 

[NavigatorII]

I am so excited for this to be OVER.

I seriously believe that Trump is the favorite and I won't be shocked if he wins. I don't subscribe to he has no chance or Harris has no chance. Now I do expect if Trump loses, we will have to hear about cheating. That is pretty much baked into Trumpism. My heart says Harris and my head says Trump. With that, since I REALLY want Trump to lose, Ill follow my heart.

My Predictions for the swing states;

Mich - Harris
Wis - Harris
PA - Harris
NC - Trump
UGA - Harris
Arz - Trump
Nev - Trump

That would give Harris ~286 EVs. I don't see any states being a surprise that isn't universally viewed as a swing state. I do expect Harris to win the popular vote no matter what, by about 4%. I don't see Trump getting over 47% of the popular vote, he seems to be stuck there and that could be his ceiling.

Lastly, the winner of the presidency wins the house and the senate is a lock for the Republicans. I am guessing 50/50 at worse and 51/49 Rs at best.

First of all, nobody is polling in Athens, Ga. 😂 Trump is winning GA this time. That throws a big monkey wrench into the rest of your scenario. If Trump wins GA, AZ, and one of WS, MI, or PA, it's all over for you commies.

 

[kalimgoodman]

So I see you’re predicting very effective cheating because that’s the only way that would happen

As expected.

 

[kalimgoodman]

First of all, nobody is polling in Athens, Ga. 😂 Trump is winning GA this time. That throws a big monkey wrench into the rest of your scenario. If Trump wins GA, AZ, and one of WS, MI, or PA, it's all over for you commies.

Just my prediction. I can see Trump winning. I know you guys can't see Harris winning. That is a problem.

 

[NavigatorII]

Just my prediction. I can see Trump winning. I know you guys can't see Harris winning. That is a problem.

Oh we can see it, it happened in 2000. Its not happening in the absence of a rigged election though.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

I am so excited for this to be OVER.

I seriously believe that Trump is the favorite and I won't be shocked if he wins. I don't subscribe to he has no chance or Harris has no chance. Now I do expect if Trump loses, we will have to hear about cheating. That is pretty much baked into Trumpism. My heart says Harris and my head says Trump. With that, since I REALLY want Trump to lose, Ill follow my heart.

My Predictions for the swing states;

Mich - Harris
Wis - Harris
PA - Harris
NC - Trump
UGA - Harris
Arz - Trump
Nev - Trump

That would give Harris ~286 EVs. I don't see any states being a surprise that isn't universally viewed as a swing state. I do expect Harris to win the popular vote no matter what, by about 4%. I don't see Trump getting over 47% of the popular vote, he seems to be stuck there and that could be his ceiling.

Lastly, the winner of the presidency wins the house and the senate is a lock for the Republicans. I am guessing 50/50 at worse and 51/49 Rs at best.

I appreciate this...you have always been wrong on your predictions.

 

[gator1776]

As expected.

Yes, cheating as expected

 

[JimGaster]

Trump will win all 7 Swing States. The closest will be Wisconsin & MAGA wins that too.

Comrade Harris has failed to drive LPV out…

 

[Illegal-shift]

It comes down to the blue wall. Trump needs one of Michigan, Wisky or PA to win.

My guess is that he will win at least one of them.....PA being the most likely.

Its a pure guess not a prediction. Way too many variables this time for anybody to be confident.

My only prediction is that if Harris wins the "they cheated" reaction this time will make 2020 look like a picnic.

 

[GatorTheo]

There's a poll:

https://florida.forums.rivals.com/threads/poll-whos-going-to-win-what.134526/

 

[kalimgoodman]

It comes down to the blue wall. Trump needs one of Michigan, Wisky or PA to win.

My guess is that he will win at least one of them.....PA being the most likely.

Its a pure guess not a prediction. Way too many variables this time for anybody to be confident.

My only prediction is that if Harris wins the "they cheated" reaction this time will make 2020 look like a picnic.

They cheated is inevitable. The right feeds to them that there is zero chance Kamala can win and they accept it. When they realize that Harris can win, then they won't freak out. I really don't understand why they think the Dems can't win elections.

 

[kalimgoodman]

Trump will win all 7 Swing States. The closest will be Wisconsin & MAGA wins that too.

Comrade Harris has failed to drive LPV out…

He could for sure.

 

[jsfgators]

The dems have the fake ballots to win. They will get it by showing Harris the “winner “ in North Carolina , Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump carries Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania but it’s not enough.

 

[kalimgoodman]

The dems have the fake ballots to win. They will get it by showing Harris the “winner “ in North Carolina , Nevada, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump carries Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania but it’s not enough.

Why do you believe that Harris have to cheat to win?

 

[Illegal-shift]

They cheated is inevitable. The right feeds to them that there is zero chance Kamala can win and they accept it. When they realize that Harris can win, then they won't freak out. I really don't understand why they think the Dems can't win elections.

Well, if they can believe that Trump lost because of cheating when Biden had an 8% advantage in the polls and Trump never had an approval rating over his entire presidency that reached 50% they will believe pretty much anything they are told to believe.

 

[Gatorskin21]

Why do you believe that Harris have to cheat to win?

because she is a flawed candidate? In theory, she wouldn't have to cheat, but that is assuming she was a much better candidate, which she isn't. It's really quite incredible she has been taken this seriously.

 

[Illegal-shift]

because she is a flawed candidate? In theory, she wouldn't have to cheat, but that is assuming she was a much better candidate, which she isn't. It's really quite incredible she has been taken this seriously.

And Trumps not a flawed candidate?

 

[kalimgoodman]

because she is a flawed candidate? In theory, she wouldn't have to cheat, but that is assuming she was a much better candidate, which she isn't. It's really quite incredible she has been taken this seriously.

Trump isn't flawed? I really don't understand that comment.

She isn't the best candidate to the people that vote for Trump, I get that but there are people that will believe that she is, do you understand that?

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Why do you believe that Harris have to cheat to win?

NOT that many legitimate idiots in America. Sure...there are 40 million or so....but she cannot win with that amount of votes

 

[Capt Ron 1]

And Trumps not a flawed candidate?

No. He is BY FAR....WAY, WAY ,WAY far the best choice. UNLESS..you like open borders, 30% inflation, schools teaching sex ed to 3rd graders, men in women sports, mandates from gubment, WEAK economy, EV mandates, high gas prices. But how many idiots like that stuff?

 

[kalimgoodman]

Well, if they can believe that Trump lost because of cheating when Biden had an 8% advantage in the polls and Trump never had an approval rating over his entire presidency that reached 50% they will believe pretty much anything they are told to believe.

I get that Trump will say that he was cheated. That is him and he's been a sore loser since like the 70's. I am just confused as to why his voters feel like they HAVE to go along with it. Even right wing media is telling the viewers that Harris is toast and she has no chance. The left wing media is not doing the same. They are saying that Trump could win. That should be message. It really is a 50/50 election.

 

[jsfgators]

Why do you believe that Harris have to cheat to win?

1) dissatisfaction with the direction of the country
2) trump is on the best position in the polls he has ever been in vs the given opponent. This includes national polls, swing state polls and favorability ratings
3) republicans are in the best position in the early vote that they have ever had. Democrats are underwater compared to previous early voting numbers
4) party affiliation trends. This is a massive swing, not just on the margins.

 

[fatman76]

And Trumps not a flawed candidate?

Incredibly.

But he's also a populist candidate with a massive amount of momentum at the moment. And, when you have 28% of the country selecting "wrong track" incumbents, and she's an incumbent, never win.

If you think excitement for Harris is higher than Trump we're not living in the same reality. Excitement typically = turnout.

Turnout right now for the left is insane bad. They're going to have to win the Election Day battle massively to win, which is something they never do.

 

[Gatorskin21]

Trump isn't flawed? I really don't understand that comment.

She isn't the best candidate to the people that vote for Trump, I get that but there are people that will believe that she is, do you understand that?

Is this where we start the "I know you are, but what am I?" debate?

She isn't the best candidate to the people that vote for Biden, or Obama, or Clinton.... I mean if you want to argue Biden was worse (2020 version), I am not going to fight you on it, although he obviously had a better overall resume (if you like career politicians that do nothing but get rich on spinning their wheels in Congress).

What do you think is the attribute that best illustrates why she is a good (notice I didn't even bother with great) candidate?

Also, are you going to state that she has actually made the case for why she is a good candidate? If I am a single issue voter for abortion, then I can understand why people would voter for her.

 

[kalimgoodman]

1) dissatisfaction with the direction of the country
2) trump is on the best position in the polls he has ever been in vs the given opponent. This includes national polls, swing state polls and favorability ratings
3) republicans are in the best position in the early vote that they have ever had. Democrats are underwater compared to previous early voting numbers
4) party affiliation trends. This is a massive swing, not just on the margins.

Harris is still more popular than him. All you provided was reason for a close election. I don't see anything that says the Harris has to cheat but your reasoning would suggest Trump cheated in 2016.

 

[Gatorskin21]

Harris is still more popular than him. All you provided was reason for a close election. I don't see anything that says the Harris has to cheat but your reasoning would suggest Trump cheated in 2016.

is she more popular, or less unpopular?

 

[Illegal-shift]

Is this where we start the "I know you are, but what am I?" debate?

She isn't the best candidate to the people that vote for Biden, or Obama, or Clinton.... I mean if you want to argue Biden was worse (2020 version), I am not going to fight you on it, although he obviously had a better overall resume (if you like career politicians that do nothing but get rich on spinning their wheels in Congress).

What do you think is the attribute that best illustrates why she is a good (notice I didn't even bother with great) candidate?

Also, are you going to state that she has actually made the case for why she is a good candidate? If I am a single issue voter for abortion, then I can understand why people would voter for her.

Her biggest asset is the same thing Biden had.

She isn't Trump.

 

[kalimgoodman]

Incredibly.

But he's also a populist candidate with a massive amount of momentum at the moment. And, when you have 28% of the country selecting "wrong track" incumbents, and she's an incumbent, never win.

If you think excitement for Harris is higher than Trump we're not living in the same reality. Excitement typically = turnout.

Turnout right now for the left is insane bad. They're going to have to win the Election Day battle massively to win, which is something they never do.

View embedded media

Words of advice, stay away from partisan people on social media, They will make the data say whatever they want you to believe. Trust that Dem people are making the early data say that the Dems will win. If you are relying on them for "evidence" or "confidence" it's a bad idea.

 

[kalimgoodman]

is she more popular, or less unpopular?

I love the chicken or egg question, guess it is up to you.

Is this where we start the "I know you are, but what am I?" debate?

She isn't the best candidate to the people that vote for Biden, or Obama, or Clinton.... I mean if you want to argue Biden was worse (2020 version), I am not going to fight you on it, although he obviously had a better overall resume (if you like career politicians that do nothing but get rich on spinning their wheels in Congress).

What do you think is the attribute that best illustrates why she is a good (notice I didn't even bother with great) candidate?

Also, are you going to state that she has actually made the case for why she is a good candidate? If I am a single issue voter for abortion, then I can understand why people would voter for her.

It is not that at all. To say she is flawed would be implying that she is the only flawed candidate, and to say that she is more flawed is completely subjective. My point is, that doesn't indicate that she can't or will win.

 

[kalimgoodman]

Her biggest asset is the same thing Biden had.

She isn't Trump.

One thing that doesn't penetrate through most Trump supporters is....They don't understand how much Trump is hated.

 

[GatorTheo]

Incredibly.

But he's also a populist candidate with a massive amount of momentum at the moment. And, when you have 28% of the country selecting "wrong track" incumbents, and she's an incumbent, never win.

If you think excitement for Harris is higher than Trump we're not living in the same reality. Excitement typically = turnout.

Turnout right now for the left is insane bad. They're going to have to win the Election Day battle massively to win, which is something they never do.

View embedded media

Do dems really need turnout? They seem to do best while they're counting the votes.

 

[GatorTheo]

One thing that doesn't penetrate through most Trump supporters is....They don't understand how much Trump is hated.

Trumpers are like any other cult. They see what they want to see and nothing else.

 

[fatman76]

Do dems really need turnout? They seem to do best while they're counting the votes.

The amount of ballots they're going to need to "find" is going to be so massive this time, and the more they have to find the more obvious it is they "found" them.

Tomorrow could be an insane day. I hoping it's chill and we go to bed knowing the outcome.

 

[fatman76]

Words of advice, stay away from partisan people on social media, They will make the data say whatever they want you to believe. Trust that Dem people are making the early data say that the Dems will win. If you are relying on them for "evidence" or "confidence" it's a bad idea.

So you're saying the numbers in the memo aren't accurate?

Because that's all that matters - the data.

The source for the data is a Democrat strategist BTW.

 

[kalimgoodman]

Trumpers are like any other cult. They see what they want to see and nothing else.

And it's not good for their mental health but whatever.

 

[kalimgoodman]

So you're saying the numbers in the memo aren't accurate?

Because that's all that matters - the data.

The source for the data is a Democrat strategist BTW.

The memo is from Tim Saler - Chief Data Consultant DJTFP/RNC....

He is a republican strategist paid by the RNC, that create a pro republican memo, that he sent to the Trump campaign.

Like I said, stay off of social media for indicators of how tomorrow will go or how early voting is going. This is when these guys feed the base for traffic. They get paid for likes and views. Don't let them use you.

 

[Gatorskin21]

I love the chicken or egg question, guess it is up to you.


It is not that at all. To say she is flawed would be implying that she is the only flawed candidate, and to say that she is more flawed is completely subjective. My point is, that doesn't indicate that she can't or will win.

Well, your party picked her. Actual voters picked Trump. So I guess we will see what happens. I can't imagine you are proud of your candidate. I can say Trump wasn't the person I would pick, but at least he was picked by actual voters.

 

[greyghost14]

Well, your party picked her. Actual democratic primary voters picked Joe Biden. Actual voters picked Trump. So I guess we will see what happens. I can't imagine you are proud of your candidate. I can say Trump wasn't the person I would pick, but at least he was picked by actual voters.

FIFY

 

[GatorTheo]

The amount of ballots they're going to need to "find" is going to be so massive this time, and the more they have to find the more obvious it is they "found" them.

Tomorrow could be an insane day. I hoping it's chill and we go to bed knowing the outcome.

In my dream scenario, we know early on that Trump will win. I will stay up all night to watch the meltdown.....just like in 2016.