I realize I don't post as often as I used to, but one little secret about me is I tend to post less when I'm not happy with the program or the leadership of the program. I realize the program is climbing a mountain as a metaphor and I refuse to be the guy who just keeps repeating that we are not yet at the top of the mountain. So, where that often leaves me is making a comment here and there on someone else's thread without fully going all in with my own thread of criticisms. This intro may make more sense later on after you read the rest of the post.
I'll give my thoughts on UF's performance on each of the components of Roster Management, but before I do so I want to lay out on how I view the landscape as we approach the 2025 season. Hoping this provides context for my comments because they will be based on this lens.
Those who have read my comments in the past know I have been ALL IN with Lagway since Day 1 and even advocated for him to start ahead of Mertz. I felt it was Napier's only chance to save his job. Whether it was by choice or not, he did eventually hand it over to Lagway and the season turned around to save Napier for at least 1 more season. Lagway has the potential to be a special QB and may already be that. I'm not sure people realize what an advantage that is for UF. It seems to me College Football is WAY down. I was trying to find the tweet, but couldn't find it but it had some type of analytic team score and the NCAA champion dating back to 2017 or so was WEAKER than the previous year and that trend continued through the 2023 season. I expect that trend to continue. These tams in the Playoffs are extremely flawed. WE ARE NOT AS FAR AWAY AS MANY THINK, not so much do our progress but the top tier has receded probably due to the Portal which makes it hard to keep talented players waiting to play on the bench, thus making them vulnerable to injuries and less competition for starting roles. So, here we are with a strong finish to the 2024 season and we likely have just 2 more seasons with our likely Special QB that will be nearly impossible to replace.
If I haven't sold you yet on focusing on the short term, let's also factor in that the late season surge to finish to 8-5 does not at all remove the pressure to win in 2025. He was given another year because we could not absorb a $26M buyout and the the late season surge just makes that decision to allow him to return more digestible. WE STILL NEED TO WIN IN 2025, preferably more than 8 wins we won in 2024. OK , so focusing on the 2 year window due to Lagway is also consistent with the needing to win in 2025 to continue to save Napier's regime.
So, how do you maximize the 2 year window?
How did we do on each of these 3?
Retain your best and experienced players:
Overall they did a fantastic job with this. Keeping Slaughter, Barber and George on the OL. Getting Banks to return. Holding onto Baugh and Jakobi. They also kept the guys who appear close to breaking through: Dijon, Mizell, Kam James, LJ McCray, Gates, Jayden Robinson, Chiles, Graham, D'Antre, Boireau, etc. Also, this may seem obvious but lets give them kudus for Lagway too. In this environment you should not assume your starting QB will return and they did what they have to at least get 1 more season from him (fingers crossed for 2 more). Yes lost a couple of guys to the Portal who would have helped in 2025, but that is to be expected and it could be argued that they fell into one of two categories: played a position where we have depth or did not perform up to previous pay range. Grade: A-
Create room by getting rid of non-performers and highly ranked players who have not performed to level of pay
As many do I had my own list of players I'd like to see leave to create room. In the past I have said things like we need to see the Rated R Napier and the not PG-13 version and this was one part I have seen that transformation. I had a list of 12-15 guys and realistically hoped half to 2/3 would be moved on, but I have to review it but I swear just about EVERY name on the list was moved on. There's even one who I believe his Mother works at UF and he too left. Grade: A
Prioritize Portal over HS. 2025 HS kids will only have a small impact on the 2025 season:
Ok, by my count with the portal attrition, NFL early entrants and those out eligibility we have cleared room for 33. That leaves plenty of room to sign a reasonably sized class and to portal reasonably hard. In early November I'm told they want to limit signees to 18 because they are aware of the need to win in 2025 (portal).
The table is cleared. Time to get to work.
UF signs 23 on Early Signing Day (12/4). More than originally planned but I'm told as many as 3 signees may be on NIL only, so I'm hopeful but losing a little bit of confidence that they execute the original plan. Portal opens on Monday December 2, UF offers a bunch of kids and sets up more than half dozen official visits. Most of those offers and visit announcements happened in the beginning of the week, than as the week progressed (and ESD transpired) the amount of portal focus (offers, visits set-up) starts waning. Several of those visits canceled (Sowell, Virgil, R.Perry) and we are out-bid for Silver and Poyser. It's fair to point out that ESD brought in more quality than I expected and that bodes well for UF in future years, but if 2025 doesn't go well, Napier is absolutely not promised 2026 and many of these signees will depart if a coaching change made after 2025 or 2026. It's unlikely the fanbase cuts Napier any slack in 2025 performance due to the strong finish to the 2025 class.
I had hoped we would trim from the class some that we had added earlier with the expectation we would not finish as strong as we did. Unfortunately, that did not happen, instead we saw things like 3 RB's signed which defies any logic. We then added 2 more signees: 5 star Dallas Wilson (you NEVER say No to someone with this much talent) and a TE previously committed to Penn. That would be a 6th TE if you include Caleb Rillos of which only Rillos will be Senior in 2025. About to take a 26th HS recruit in Onis. We need a GM.
We pickup 4 from the Portal. Purdie was as good as we could expect to pickup to backup Lagway with his athletic ability and some experience. Sturdivant was a nice pickup and has shown enough over his 3 years that it's possible he could break-out like Badger and Dike did. I like the idea of taking a veteran punter so we are not totally reliant on a Freshman punter. Can't say Doman is or is not the right one to take but this is the type of contingency planning you make to improve your changes for playoff contention. I'm a little underwhelmed with Asare's UMass production but should be a nice depth piece. I'm a little concerned we have not added enough to the defense and are too reliant on the returnees and the high schools kids to make-up for what we have lost on that side of the ball: Cam Jackson, Jason Marshall, Jack Pyburn, Shemar James, Trikweze Bridges, TJ Searcy, Dez Watson, Joey Slackman, Ja'keem Jackson, DJ Douglas, Asa Turner, and Wingo. I realize quite a few of these kids made little to no impact but presumably they were better options than the ones behind them which makes me concerned on the reliance on these others. So far, this has not been the approach of someone trying to maximize their playoff run. I currently have our count at 83, with 47 of the 83 being from either the 2024 or 2025 classes. If you include the 2023 class (going into their 3rd season) the number jumps to 64. Typically contending teams either focus on supreme talent or supreme experience (22-24 year olds) or mixture of both with a strong QB to contend. Had been hopeful we would be a little more advanced in that matrix to this point.
Preliminary grade: C (there is still time to add a few impactful pieces)
What happened to the Original Plan (small class, large portal)?
I don't have the answers, just lots of questions.
Was the Original Plan what they viewed as optimal or was it just an acknowledgement that recruiting wasn't going well so they would focus on Portal to fill the roster?
Did the larger ESD count and presumably more $ spent of HS than originally planned change the portal approach?
Did player retention end up costing more than expected thus forcing an adjustment away from portal (costs more but more immediate results)?
Did the strong late season surge encourage Napier to focus more on the long term since he no longer views his seat as being HOT in the short term?
Media portrayed that the buyout money (never existed) would be repurposed for new players when Napier brought back, should UF admin clarified that the money didn't exist and we would need new funds to portal hard? They seem to enjoy the validation of their decision ignoring it was false (no buyout money to reappropriate) and expressed to fanbase more money was not needed.
Are there really 3 signees who will be NIL only, which would mean 80 instead of 83? Doesn't feel like it.
Was a decision made to prioritize the 2026 run when the schedule is presumably more favorable?
Why did I post this?
My initial thought was to keep quiet and see how things shake out, we have 3ish weeks to get players to enroll for Spring Semester. I the last day or so I've been second-guessing this approach and given the high profile of some members of this site (a testament to the site Higdon has built) I'm hoping we can encourage some late stage changes and for all of us to acknowledge we have a unique situation here with Lagway and we may want to make decisions that are appropriate to this reality that we would not make otherwise.
I'll give my thoughts on UF's performance on each of the components of Roster Management, but before I do so I want to lay out on how I view the landscape as we approach the 2025 season. Hoping this provides context for my comments because they will be based on this lens.
Those who have read my comments in the past know I have been ALL IN with Lagway since Day 1 and even advocated for him to start ahead of Mertz. I felt it was Napier's only chance to save his job. Whether it was by choice or not, he did eventually hand it over to Lagway and the season turned around to save Napier for at least 1 more season. Lagway has the potential to be a special QB and may already be that. I'm not sure people realize what an advantage that is for UF. It seems to me College Football is WAY down. I was trying to find the tweet, but couldn't find it but it had some type of analytic team score and the NCAA champion dating back to 2017 or so was WEAKER than the previous year and that trend continued through the 2023 season. I expect that trend to continue. These tams in the Playoffs are extremely flawed. WE ARE NOT AS FAR AWAY AS MANY THINK, not so much do our progress but the top tier has receded probably due to the Portal which makes it hard to keep talented players waiting to play on the bench, thus making them vulnerable to injuries and less competition for starting roles. So, here we are with a strong finish to the 2024 season and we likely have just 2 more seasons with our likely Special QB that will be nearly impossible to replace.
If I haven't sold you yet on focusing on the short term, let's also factor in that the late season surge to finish to 8-5 does not at all remove the pressure to win in 2025. He was given another year because we could not absorb a $26M buyout and the the late season surge just makes that decision to allow him to return more digestible. WE STILL NEED TO WIN IN 2025, preferably more than 8 wins we won in 2024. OK , so focusing on the 2 year window due to Lagway is also consistent with the needing to win in 2025 to continue to save Napier's regime.
So, how do you maximize the 2 year window?
- Retain your best and experienced players
- Create room by getting rid of non-performers and highly ranked players who have not performed to level of pay
- Prioritize Portal over HS. 2025 HS kids will only have a small impact on the 2025 season
How did we do on each of these 3?
Retain your best and experienced players:
Overall they did a fantastic job with this. Keeping Slaughter, Barber and George on the OL. Getting Banks to return. Holding onto Baugh and Jakobi. They also kept the guys who appear close to breaking through: Dijon, Mizell, Kam James, LJ McCray, Gates, Jayden Robinson, Chiles, Graham, D'Antre, Boireau, etc. Also, this may seem obvious but lets give them kudus for Lagway too. In this environment you should not assume your starting QB will return and they did what they have to at least get 1 more season from him (fingers crossed for 2 more). Yes lost a couple of guys to the Portal who would have helped in 2025, but that is to be expected and it could be argued that they fell into one of two categories: played a position where we have depth or did not perform up to previous pay range. Grade: A-
Create room by getting rid of non-performers and highly ranked players who have not performed to level of pay
As many do I had my own list of players I'd like to see leave to create room. In the past I have said things like we need to see the Rated R Napier and the not PG-13 version and this was one part I have seen that transformation. I had a list of 12-15 guys and realistically hoped half to 2/3 would be moved on, but I have to review it but I swear just about EVERY name on the list was moved on. There's even one who I believe his Mother works at UF and he too left. Grade: A
Prioritize Portal over HS. 2025 HS kids will only have a small impact on the 2025 season:
Ok, by my count with the portal attrition, NFL early entrants and those out eligibility we have cleared room for 33. That leaves plenty of room to sign a reasonably sized class and to portal reasonably hard. In early November I'm told they want to limit signees to 18 because they are aware of the need to win in 2025 (portal).
The table is cleared. Time to get to work.
UF signs 23 on Early Signing Day (12/4). More than originally planned but I'm told as many as 3 signees may be on NIL only, so I'm hopeful but losing a little bit of confidence that they execute the original plan. Portal opens on Monday December 2, UF offers a bunch of kids and sets up more than half dozen official visits. Most of those offers and visit announcements happened in the beginning of the week, than as the week progressed (and ESD transpired) the amount of portal focus (offers, visits set-up) starts waning. Several of those visits canceled (Sowell, Virgil, R.Perry) and we are out-bid for Silver and Poyser. It's fair to point out that ESD brought in more quality than I expected and that bodes well for UF in future years, but if 2025 doesn't go well, Napier is absolutely not promised 2026 and many of these signees will depart if a coaching change made after 2025 or 2026. It's unlikely the fanbase cuts Napier any slack in 2025 performance due to the strong finish to the 2025 class.
I had hoped we would trim from the class some that we had added earlier with the expectation we would not finish as strong as we did. Unfortunately, that did not happen, instead we saw things like 3 RB's signed which defies any logic. We then added 2 more signees: 5 star Dallas Wilson (you NEVER say No to someone with this much talent) and a TE previously committed to Penn. That would be a 6th TE if you include Caleb Rillos of which only Rillos will be Senior in 2025. About to take a 26th HS recruit in Onis. We need a GM.
We pickup 4 from the Portal. Purdie was as good as we could expect to pickup to backup Lagway with his athletic ability and some experience. Sturdivant was a nice pickup and has shown enough over his 3 years that it's possible he could break-out like Badger and Dike did. I like the idea of taking a veteran punter so we are not totally reliant on a Freshman punter. Can't say Doman is or is not the right one to take but this is the type of contingency planning you make to improve your changes for playoff contention. I'm a little underwhelmed with Asare's UMass production but should be a nice depth piece. I'm a little concerned we have not added enough to the defense and are too reliant on the returnees and the high schools kids to make-up for what we have lost on that side of the ball: Cam Jackson, Jason Marshall, Jack Pyburn, Shemar James, Trikweze Bridges, TJ Searcy, Dez Watson, Joey Slackman, Ja'keem Jackson, DJ Douglas, Asa Turner, and Wingo. I realize quite a few of these kids made little to no impact but presumably they were better options than the ones behind them which makes me concerned on the reliance on these others. So far, this has not been the approach of someone trying to maximize their playoff run. I currently have our count at 83, with 47 of the 83 being from either the 2024 or 2025 classes. If you include the 2023 class (going into their 3rd season) the number jumps to 64. Typically contending teams either focus on supreme talent or supreme experience (22-24 year olds) or mixture of both with a strong QB to contend. Had been hopeful we would be a little more advanced in that matrix to this point.
Preliminary grade: C (there is still time to add a few impactful pieces)
What happened to the Original Plan (small class, large portal)?
I don't have the answers, just lots of questions.
Was the Original Plan what they viewed as optimal or was it just an acknowledgement that recruiting wasn't going well so they would focus on Portal to fill the roster?
Did the larger ESD count and presumably more $ spent of HS than originally planned change the portal approach?
Did player retention end up costing more than expected thus forcing an adjustment away from portal (costs more but more immediate results)?
Did the strong late season surge encourage Napier to focus more on the long term since he no longer views his seat as being HOT in the short term?
Media portrayed that the buyout money (never existed) would be repurposed for new players when Napier brought back, should UF admin clarified that the money didn't exist and we would need new funds to portal hard? They seem to enjoy the validation of their decision ignoring it was false (no buyout money to reappropriate) and expressed to fanbase more money was not needed.
Are there really 3 signees who will be NIL only, which would mean 80 instead of 83? Doesn't feel like it.
Was a decision made to prioritize the 2026 run when the schedule is presumably more favorable?
Why did I post this?
My initial thought was to keep quiet and see how things shake out, we have 3ish weeks to get players to enroll for Spring Semester. I the last day or so I've been second-guessing this approach and given the high profile of some members of this site (a testament to the site Higdon has built) I'm hoping we can encourage some late stage changes and for all of us to acknowledge we have a unique situation here with Lagway and we may want to make decisions that are appropriate to this reality that we would not make otherwise.
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