It's time FSU

[MJWilliamson]

@tomdangelo44: #UF opens as a 3 point favorite over #FSU

Last week this is the opening line I thought might happen. I am a little surprised it stands, given our struggles yesterday. I am going to guess the FSU fans will bet their pizza delivery tips on the FSU side, driving the line down a bit.

 

[grommit]

How on Earth??? FSU put up 50something on it's cupcake yesterday and we can't even get a pass completed... Oh well, I guess it's cause we get so many points to us for being the home team and a slightly better defense. A LOT of people lost money on Florida Vs FAU this past weekend, I dunno who wants to throw more money after this jekyll and hyde team, but then again I don't bet so I don't know how such a mind operates.

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

Maybe Vegas hasn't forgotten 2012, when UF barely escaped the Mighty Louisiana Lafayette, not long before they beat FSU at Doak.

I know it's a cliche to say that a team "plays up, or down" to their competition, but I really believe it's true with UF in recent years. I assumed it was just a Muschamp thing, but maybe it's just one of those locker room cultural malaise-things that linger for years.

 

[alaskanseminole]

I wouldn't bet your tip money much less mine in this game, MJ. For the first time in years I really have zero idea how this thing is going to go.

I agree with grommit on the defense (as I posted in the other thread), and our offense is only slightly better (Cook). If I knew it would come down to special teams, then I'd toss some dough out, but geeesshhh...I really don't know on this one. Strange year.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Never in the history of this rivalry have so many fans from both sides felt so much angst for such a short period of time.

(or some other bastardization of the quote)

 

[MJWilliamson]

The line has now been bet down to 2.5

 

[gatorshime]

Take the points.

 

[Nolez29]

COME AT ME MJ!!!!!

 

[MJWilliamson]

Give me a minute. I need to find my fly swatter.

 

[GoFish2]

Down to one.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Since its inception in 1958, The Florida-Florida State series, better known as the Sunshine Showdown, has etched itself into sports lore as one of the most non conference prominent rivalries in college football history. Florida boasts a 34-23-2 all-time record against the Seminoles, along with a 20-10-1 mark in Gainesville. Interestingly, there has been no upsets in this rivalry over the past 10 seasons, as the higher ranked team has won each of those games.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Florida is the only FBS team that ranks 10th or better in the nation in rushing defense (eighth), pass defense (10th), total defense (sixth), scoring defense (third), sacks per game (sixth) and turnovers gained (ninth).

 

[danoleman]

Florida is the only FBS team that ranks 10th or better in the nation in rushing defense (eighth), pass defense (10th), total defense (sixth), scoring defense (third), sacks per game (sixth) and turnovers gained (ninth).

Well if nothing else your rush defense will certainly be tested.

 

[Lil65]

It's going to be fun...FSU has nothing to lose

 

[gatorjmdz]

 

[travnole]

Now FSU -2

Don't see a 5 point swing in 1/2 a day very often with nothing new happening.

 

[NavigatorII]

Now FSU -2

Don't see a 5 point swing in 1/2 a day very often with nothing new happening.

It's never been about anything but moving the betting lines. The bookies want more action. As a bettor I'd stay one million miles away from this game lately.

 

[danoleman]

Now FSU -2

Don't see a 5 point swing in 1/2 a day very often with nothing new happening.

Looks like a ton of money is coming in on FSU. This is a game I would not touch.

 

[NavigatorII]

Looks like a ton of money is coming in on FSU. This is a game I would not touch.

Agree. I also think people who bet on the NFL have more money to blow than brains. Might as well put money on red or black and pray.

 

[ifuaintagatorumustbegatorbait]

I think Vegas just realized that Hardin and the Dentist still played for UF.

 

[ocalaman]

I hope the Gator team that played Ole Miss and Georgia shows up Saturday. FSU is not as good as they have been the last couple of years, but they are still really good and probably should be favored over us. Field goal kicker comparisons alone gives them a 3-6 point advantage. But I somehow think the good guys will show up ready to play. I just hope the confidence of the offense has not been totally shot.

 

[Nolez29]

I hope the Gator team that played Ole Miss and Georgia shows up Saturday. FSU is not as good as they have been the last couple of years, but they are still really good and probably should be favored over us. Field goal kicker comparisons alone gives them a 3-6 point advantage. But I somehow think the good guys will show up ready to play. I just hope the confidence of the offense has not been totally shot.

Solid post.

 

[GatorNation79]

 

[GatorNation79]

Maybe Vegas hasn't forgotten 2012, when UF barely escaped the Mighty Louisiana Lafayette, not long before they beat FSU at Doak.

I know it's a cliche to say that a team "plays up, or down" to their competition, but I really believe it's true with UF in recent years. I assumed it was just a Muschamp thing, but maybe it's just one of those locker room cultural malaise-things that linger for years.

I get what you're saying but I don't think that we should be the favorite...I mean look how inconsistent we are on offense. I would have thought that we would get better as the season went on but we are not...we are just really inconsistent...no telling what team is going to show up...plus the team from 2012 has nothing to do with this year. lol

 

[46885]

How on Earth??? FSU put up 50something on it's cupcake yesterday and we can't even get a pass completed... Oh well, I guess it's cause we get so many points to us for being the home team and a slightly better defense. A LOT of people lost money on Florida Vs FAU this past weekend, I dunno who wants to throw more money after this jekyll and hyde team, but then again I don't bet so I don't know how such a mind operates.

I don't know why anyone would have laid 31 points with this offense yesterday. I told everyone I knew to hammer the under because we wouldn't even score as many as we were favored by. Even with OT that was the case. Treon is absolutely awful

 

[grommit]

I don't know where the 31 points came from. Haven't we only scored that many points against Ole Miss all season long? Perhaps the first game as well. Maybe I'm missing another. 31 points was a ridiculous betting spread.

 

[MJWilliamson]

@SportSourceA: 69.34% of opponents drives against @CoachCollins' #Gator defense have not crossed mid-field. This is the best percentage in FBS in 2015.

 

[NoleandDawg]

Let's be honest UGA and Ole Miss are not that great and those are the gators signature wins, and this is coming from a UGA alum.

 

[MJWilliamson]

Let's be honest UGA and Ole Miss are not that great and those are the gators signature wins, and this is coming from a UGA alum.

Maybe not. But both are a damn sight better than any win FSU has managed this year.

 

[BillWesJay]

UGA is better than Texas State , Chatt and Wake.

Other than that... not so much.

 

[MJWilliamson]

UGA is better than Texas State , Chatt and Wake.

Other than that... not so much.

UGA is as good as better than any ACC team not named Clemson. So is Tennessee.

 

[BillWesJay]

UGA is as good as better than any ACC team not named Clemson. So is Tennessee.

The UGA team standing at week 11 is flat out terrible and wouldn't beat anyone in the ACC not named Wake. Kinda like USCe, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Missouri.

Tennessee certainly can play but their coach is learning on the job.

The SEC east is the worst division in football.

 

[MJWilliamson]

The UGA team standing at week 11 is flat out terrible

UGA would beat every team in the ACC save for Clemson.

and wouldn't beat anyone in the ACC not named Wake. Kinda like USCe, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Missouri.

You mean, other than the little inconvenient fact the USCe already beat UNC?

 

[Uniformed_ReRe]

It's interesting that FSU is now favored over a higher-ranked team, playing at home.

Actually, wasn't that also the case in 2012? I think the Gators were ranked about where they are now, and same with FSU.

That was the game that arguably made it possible for Muschamp to survive an extra season. UF won that battle, but lost a season.

 

[oozie7]

Few things I'm certain of:

1. FSU will not run on UF unless they include Golson in the game and go to some option looks. Traditional attacks have been killed by us.
2. We will not run on FSU either, would be surprised if we broke 100 as a team.
3. FSU will struggling passing, but will get 1-2 long ones on us. This could be killer since Aguayo is basically automatic once they cross the 50 and we can't even make XP's.
4. We will struggle passing, understatement.
5. Defense or special teams has to score for us to win.

 

[GatorGray]

5. Defense or special teams has to score for us to win.

The good news is that fsu has scored a grand total of SIX offensive TDs on the road this year.

 

[ifuaintagatorumustbegatorbait]

Bad news...they can bench their QB if he stinks and replace him with another QB. If our QB stinks it up, he keeps playing. Not good

That's the ONLY reason we're the dog in this game.

 

[MJWilliamson]

That was the game that arguably made it possible for Muschamp to survive an extra season. UF won that battle, but lost a season.

Hard to argue that. And most FSU fans s to this day still deny that their team was dominated in most every aspect of that game.

However, to your original point, what is even more disconcerting is that were it not for the two improbable losses to LSU and USCe in 2014, Muschamp would be facing Fisher for the fifth time this Saturday.

I think it is safe to say that if that was the case, it is highly unlikely Muschamp would have ten wins thus far

 

[MJWilliamson]

5. Defense or special teams has to score for us to win.

I agree with everything you wrote, but especially this.

 

[MJWilliamson]

The good news is that fsu has scored a grand total of SIX offensive TDs on the road this year.

And FSU's Red Zone road TD conversion rate is 36.4% Nationally, that would equate to an overall rank of #126. Right there with Vandy.

BTW, Florida overall RZ TD conversion rate, including home and the road is 62.2% or #56 in the Nation. FSU's overall RZ TD conversion rate is 53.7%, or # 102. And finally, Florida's home RZ home conversion rate is only 61%