I'm aware that 538 gave Hillary a 74% chance of winning the 2016 election on election day.
Are you?
Being further behind in polls that were completely wrong in 2016 doesn't impress me. If anything, that bolsters the thought that Trump wins in a landslide.
A 74% chance means that he had a 26% chance of winning. Do you understand the difference between saying something has a 26% chance of happening versus saying it’s impossible? A 26% chance is better odds than Russian Roulette. Does this mean that probabilities are wrong because people sometimes get shot while playing it?
It was widely acknowledged that key battlegrounds were neglected by pollsters in 2016. This time around, they are being watched carefully. Biden is maintaining a consistent lead in all of the key battleground states as well as some states that he wasn’t expected to be competitive in. Of course, there’s still a few weeks before the election, so things can shift back in Trump’s favor. But, right now, he is clearly the underdog.