First 50+ Days...some thoughts (Great and not so...)

[grandhavendiddy]

Overall, I have been thrilled with Trump's return to office and the remarkable unity and, dare I say it...discipline of the Republican Congress and Senate. I am (far) less thrilled with his moves on Tarrifs, but more on that in a second.

First, major success - Immigration. As we all know, this has been my #1 issue. He shut it down immediately, and cold. It makes me want to even further seethe at Biden (if that is possible). Noem, Holman and Rubio is his role have been exceptional. A+.

Second, shrinking government spending/Deficits. As someone who is a partner in a global consulting firm, the DOGE method of looking at, questioning spend, cancelling contracts and stopping hiring is not "unique" or "creative", but Trump and Elon have done in 50 days what has not been done in 250 years - shrink the size of the enterprise. 70% of all job growth under Biden was in the government. As Vance said, there have been unnecessary mistakes (dumb in my view, as someone who does this work), but overall, the trajectory is in the right direction. A.

Third - Israel ceasefire. Biden could not get it done. Trump did it in weeks. I do not like how Israel gave up 50 hostages for every 1 israeli, but the shooting stopped. Gaz-a-lago was kind of funny, but probably the right answer and of course only Trump could come up with this. If you want to stop fighting that has gone on for Millenia, stop focusing on whose god is right and setup gorgeous resorts and cities just like they have in Dubai, UAE, etc. A/A-.

Fourth - Ukraine and EU paying their fair share. This is one of the areas that I have loved most about Trump. In 2017, only 5 of 32 countries paid their fair share. Now it is 17 and finally the UK, Germany, etc. are no longer free riding off of the U.S. Zelenskyy's performance in the Oval Office was shameful. I loved how Vance/Trump shut him down. 2 weeks later, Z agree to a cease fire. I also think us getting Mineral Rights is brilliant. Well done. Now do I "trust" Putin. No. But as Rubio said, if guns are firing, no one is talking. It's a start. A/A-.

Fifth, Inflation - it's coming down. Price of eggs, price of gas. "Drill, baby drill" - yes, we need to support our strength in Energy. Consumer down to 2.8 which is not "great", but is manageable. Some offsets here with Tarriffs - but more on that later. Trending: A-

Sixth, DEI and Dismantling Campus Non-sense - A+. As someone of partial Jewish heritage, when Rubio and Trump pulled the green card of that professional agitator and removed $400M from Columbia, I said, "finally, some sense is coming to the government". A+

Seventh, Abortion - never talked about. Great. A+.

Now, Tariffs, the "51st State" and Trudeau:

When Trump used it initially to get Mexico and Canada to start shutting down the border: A+. After that happened, these broad tariffs, and yes, I get all of the reasons: immigration (see above), fentanyl, fairness/reciprocity, reshoring manufacturing, the stock market has dropped by 10%. I lost a lot of money. A lot.

Now, is the reaction / market selling over-done? Sure. With that said, my critique here is hardly a lone voice: Ben Shapiro. Greg Ip at the WSJ, a number of others.

Where this group missed is on precision and being surgical.

There are imports from Canada, where we WANT dumping. Lumber, energy prices, and a few other commodities. Great, price it below the market, and allow us to build up our housing stock at below market prices. On Energy alone, with our Data Center needs (which is one of the specific areas that I work in), we have incredible needs for base power and Nuclear.

There are others where, for example, is Mary Barra and Paul Jacobson from GM want to move new shifts and plants to Canada or Mexico - great, hit them with Tarrifs. You are making a call to move stuff out of the U.S. where you could easily do it in the U.S., then we are no longer going to take it.

On Autos, a bit of a different story. I have two Audis, I love them, but we also have two Jeeps (Grand C. XLE and Wagoneer-S), which I also love. My next car is likely a Tesla Model S. (where is Sheep dude, when we need him, lol) The EU slaps prohibitive tarriffs on our cars. Fine - peace out then.

I loved TMSC's announcement. We need Chip Fab and Foundries in the U.S. Intel needs to get it's act together.

On the 51st state, this is where I think Trump made the biggest mistake. I have ZERO interest in bringing in new liberal enclaves. There are 10 provinces. Bring in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. I believe (could be wrong) they are the conservative states. Do they really love bending the knee to Ottawa and the British Crown? I doubt it. So, add in those three and hell, go make PR a state and tax them and continue to win over the Latino vote.

Now, Trump has united Canada against the U.S. and even, ironically, sunk Pierre P. who should be Trump's soulmate. I also think that Pierre has played this exceptionally poorly.

A "C" so far, but it's early days to be fair.

Overall, I am very happy with the direction of the country, but Trump needs to win on the stock market and the economy. Identical to the Gaz-a-lago move above, make people prosperous and good things happen....

 

[GatorTheo]

I'd give him a B+. He's worked on some things that badly needed attention. Lot of positives.

I'd like him to slow down a bit. A lot of these things are potentially good but it looks like he's not getting all the details figured out before he does things. He needs people other than his hardcore followers to have confidence in him. It is still possible not to lose in the midterms.

 

[Gator Fever]

My view on the Tarriff stuff is they have more to lose and the setup now is mostly in their favor. It might cause some headaches for a while but Trump needs to keep the pressure up and they will get more in line.

I think all this stuff Trump is doing will help long term but it wouldn't surprise me if the initial shock to the system gives us a negative GDP in Q1 and Q2 and a recession.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

On the 51st state, this is where I think Trump made the biggest mistake. I have ZERO interest in bringing in new liberal enclaves.

Honestly, I dont think Trump wants to either. I know Rubio and others have said Trump is serious, but I don;t think he is.

Trump's negotiation style is to go after something you want, to try to get you to offer up what he wants.

For instance, tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I don't think he really cares about them, but he knows Canada and Mexico does. He wants border security from both, plus he wants the cartels under control in Mexico and the Chinese out of Canadian politics. So he threatens tariffs to get their governments to help with both those goals.

Then when the goals are met, he will drop the tariffs, then people like theo say 'Well Trump just flies off the handle and never thinks things through." No....he never cared about tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they were leveraged to get what he REALLY wanted.

Also, it gets the American public comfortable and aware of the role tariffs play on the revenue side. Because I think Trump DOES want to move us toward tariffs as an income source and lower or end our dependency on income tax. But that means focusing on tariffs with other countries where we have a big imbalance, like China.

Another example: Look at Trump nominating Matt Gaetz as AG. His supporters loved it, many republicans in the Senate said hell no.

Then after a week or so, he suddenly drops out???

That means either Trump didn't vet Matt properly, or he never intended for Gaetz to be his AG pick. I think it was the latter. I think Trump wanted to expose the pubs in the Senate who would support him, and who would not. Note that after Gaetz dropped out, suddenly all the pushback from pubs like Ernst and others magically disappeared and the rest of his picks went through fairly smoothly.

 

[Gator Fever]

Honestly, I dont think Trump wants to either. I know Rubio and others have said Trump is serious, but I don;t think he is.

Trump's negotiation style is to go after something you want, to try to get you to offer up what he wants.

For instance, tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I don't think he really cares about them, but he knows Canada and Mexico does. He wants border security from both, plus he wants the cartels under control in Mexico and the Chinese out of Canadian politics. So he threatens tariffs to get their governments to help with both those goals.

Then when the goals are met, he will drop the tariffs, then people like theo say 'Well Trump just flies off the handle and never thinks things through." No....he never cared about tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they were leveraged to get what he REALLY wanted.

Also, it gets the American public comfortable and aware of the role tariffs play on the revenue side. Because I think Trump DOES want to move us toward tariffs as an income source and lower or end our dependency on income tax. But that means focusing on tariffs with other countries where we have a big imbalance, like China.

Another example: Look at Trump nominating Matt Gaetz as AG. His supporters loved it, many republicans in the Senate said hell no.

Then after a week or so, he suddenly drops out???

That means either Trump didn't vet Matt properly, or he never intended for Gaetz to be his AG pick. I think it was the latter. I think Trump wanted to expose the pubs in the Senate who would support him, and who would not. Note that after Gaetz dropped out, suddenly all the pushback from pubs like Ernst and others magically disappeared and the rest of his picks went through fairly smoothly.

I think Gaetz was used with the thought if he didn't get him through it would mean other nominees in the admin would be more likely to get through since they already pulled that on Trump.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Honestly, I dont think Trump wants to either. I know Rubio and others have said Trump is serious, but I don;t think he is.

Trump's negotiation style is to go after something you want, to try to get you to offer up what he wants.

For instance, tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I don't think he really cares about them, but he knows Canada and Mexico does. He wants border security from both, plus he wants the cartels under control in Mexico and the Chinese out of Canadian politics. So he threatens tariffs to get their governments to help with both those goals.

Then when the goals are met, he will drop the tariffs, then people like theo say 'Well Trump just flies off the handle and never thinks things through." No....he never cared about tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they were leveraged to get what he REALLY wanted.

Also, it gets the American public comfortable and aware of the role tariffs play on the revenue side. Because I think Trump DOES want to move us toward tariffs as an income source and lower or end our dependency on income tax. But that means focusing on tariffs with other countries where we have a big imbalance, like China.

Another example: Look at Trump nominating Matt Gaetz as AG. His supporters loved it, many republicans in the Senate said hell no.

Then after a week or so, he suddenly drops out???

That means either Trump didn't vet Matt properly, or he never intended for Gaetz to be his AG pick. I think it was the latter. I think Trump wanted to expose the pubs in the Senate who would support him, and who would not. Note that after Gaetz dropped out, suddenly all the pushback from pubs like Ernst and others magically disappeared and the rest of his picks went through fairly smoothly.

I wish people understood him better. This all has to do with negotiating. It would be STUPID to bring a load of socialists in to our Country.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Honestly, I dont think Trump wants to either. I know Rubio and others have said Trump is serious, but I don;t think he is.

Trump's negotiation style is to go after something you want, to try to get you to offer up what he wants.

For instance, tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I don't think he really cares about them, but he knows Canada and Mexico does. He wants border security from both, plus he wants the cartels under control in Mexico and the Chinese out of Canadian politics. So he threatens tariffs to get their governments to help with both those goals.

Then when the goals are met, he will drop the tariffs, then people like theo say 'Well Trump just flies off the handle and never thinks things through." No....he never cared about tariffs with Canada and Mexico, they were leveraged to get what he REALLY wanted.

Also, it gets the American public comfortable and aware of the role tariffs play on the revenue side. Because I think Trump DOES want to move us toward tariffs as an income source and lower or end our dependency on income tax. But that means focusing on tariffs with other countries where we have a big imbalance, like China.

Another example: Look at Trump nominating Matt Gaetz as AG. His supporters loved it, many republicans in the Senate said hell no.

Then after a week or so, he suddenly drops out???

That means either Trump didn't vet Matt properly, or he never intended for Gaetz to be his AG pick. I think it was the latter. I think Trump wanted to expose the pubs in the Senate who would support him, and who would not. Note that after Gaetz dropped out, suddenly all the pushback from pubs like Ernst and others magically disappeared and the rest of his picks went through fairly smoothly.

THIS^^^^^^^ he had his second pick IMMEDIATELY. And did on purpose so everyone knew

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Overall, I have been thrilled with Trump's return to office and the remarkable unity and, dare I say it...discipline of the Republican Congress and Senate. I am (far) less thrilled with his moves on Tarrifs, but more on that in a second.

First, major success - Immigration. As we all know, this has been my #1 issue. He shut it down immediately, and cold. It makes me want to even further seethe at Biden (if that is possible). Noem, Holman and Rubio is his role have been exceptional. A+.

Second, shrinking government spending/Deficits. As someone who is a partner in a global consulting firm, the DOGE method of looking at, questioning spend, cancelling contracts and stopping hiring is not "unique" or "creative", but Trump and Elon have done in 50 days what has not been done in 250 years - shrink the size of the enterprise. 70% of all job growth under Biden was in the government. As Vance said, there have been unnecessary mistakes (dumb in my view, as someone who does this work), but overall, the trajectory is in the right direction. A.

Third - Israel ceasefire. Biden could not get it done. Trump did it in weeks. I do not like how Israel gave up 50 hostages for every 1 israeli, but the shooting stopped. Gaz-a-lago was kind of funny, but probably the right answer and of course only Trump could come up with this. If you want to stop fighting that has gone on for Millenia, stop focusing on whose god is right and setup gorgeous resorts and cities just like they have in Dubai, UAE, etc. A/A-.

Fourth - Ukraine and EU paying their fair share. This is one of the areas that I have loved most about Trump. In 2017, only 5 of 32 countries paid their fair share. Now it is 17 and finally the UK, Germany, etc. are no longer free riding off of the U.S. Zelenskyy's performance in the Oval Office was shameful. I loved how Vance/Trump shut him down. 2 weeks later, Z agree to a cease fire. I also think us getting Mineral Rights is brilliant. Well done. Now do I "trust" Putin. No. But as Rubio said, if guns are firing, no one is talking. It's a start. A/A-.

Fifth, Inflation - it's coming down. Price of eggs, price of gas. "Drill, baby drill" - yes, we need to support our strength in Energy. Consumer down to 2.8 which is not "great", but is manageable. Some offsets here with Tarriffs - but more on that later. Trending: A-

Sixth, DEI and Dismantling Campus Non-sense - A+. As someone of partial Jewish heritage, when Rubio and Trump pulled the green card of that professional agitator and removed $400M from Columbia, I said, "finally, some sense is coming to the government". A+

Seventh, Abortion - never talked about. Great. A+.

Now, Tariffs, the "51st State" and Trudeau:

When Trump used it initially to get Mexico and Canada to start shutting down the border: A+. After that happened, these broad tariffs, and yes, I get all of the reasons: immigration (see above), fentanyl, fairness/reciprocity, reshoring manufacturing, the stock market has dropped by 10%. I lost a lot of money. A lot.

Now, is the reaction / market selling over-done? Sure. With that said, my critique here is hardly a lone voice: Ben Shapiro. Greg Ip at the WSJ, a number of others.

Where this group missed is on precision and being surgical.

There are imports from Canada, where we WANT dumping. Lumber, energy prices, and a few other commodities. Great, price it below the market, and allow us to build up our housing stock at below market prices. On Energy alone, with our Data Center needs (which is one of the specific areas that I work in), we have incredible needs for base power and Nuclear.

There are others where, for example, is Mary Barra and Paul Jacobson from GM want to move new shifts and plants to Canada or Mexico - great, hit them with Tarrifs. You are making a call to move stuff out of the U.S. where you could easily do it in the U.S., then we are no longer going to take it.

On Autos, a bit of a different story. I have two Audis, I love them, but we also have two Jeeps (Grand C. XLE and Wagoneer-S), which I also love. My next car is likely a Tesla Model S. (where is Sheep dude, when we need him, lol) The EU slaps prohibitive tarriffs on our cars. Fine - peace out then.

I loved TMSC's announcement. We need Chip Fab and Foundries in the U.S. Intel needs to get it's act together.

On the 51st state, this is where I think Trump made the biggest mistake. I have ZERO interest in bringing in new liberal enclaves. There are 10 provinces. Bring in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta. I believe (could be wrong) they are the conservative states. Do they really love bending the knee to Ottawa and the British Crown? I doubt it. So, add in those three and hell, go make PR a state and tax them and continue to win over the Latino vote.

Now, Trump has united Canada against the U.S. and even, ironically, sunk Pierre P. who should be Trump's soulmate. I also think that Pierre has played this exceptionally poorly.

A "C" so far, but it's early days to be fair.

Overall, I am very happy with the direction of the country, but Trump needs to win on the stock market and the economy. Identical to the Gaz-a-lago move above, make people prosperous and good things happen....

You do not lose money on stocks until you sell. Hold tight...buy more now.

 

[grandhavendiddy]

You do not lose money on stocks until you sell. Hold tight...buy more now.

You are correct.

 

[grandhavendiddy]

THIS^^^^^^^ he had his second pick IMMEDIATELY. And did on purpose so everyone knew

Pam is far better than Matt, for this role.

Matt also got caught doing some bad (radio edit).

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

I wish people understood him better. This all has to do with negotiating. It would be STUPID to bring a load of socialists in to our Country.

People that dont understand how Trump works go with what the media tells them, without realizing the media has a vested interest in hurting Trump's credibility.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Pam is far better than Matt, for this role.

Matt also got caught doing some bad (radio edit).

He is my congressman...he is DIRTY as hell. BTW...nice wrote up