First off, I am THRILLED that Trump injected the 90 days.Nasdaq is down 3000 since February even after today and we still haven’t seen what the payoff is going to be as far as trade concessions.
Trump folded because the bond market was collapsing, in part due to large scale selling by the countries we were tariffing (Japan most prominently), so we found the limits of that particular strategy.
However, convincing everyone that you’re crazy at the outset isn’t the worst negotiating strategy
The main advocate/architect was Bessent and he over-rode Navarro who became a zealot.
It is also fascinating here, in line, albeit the opposite way, with friends on a separate FB forum on whether they are focused on the efficacy of Tariffs or on the impact (ranging from holiness to evil) of Trump.
One side has Trump committing insider trading; the other views any criticism as (essentially) “blasphemy”. So Trump is so singular as a figure, that discussions of him are almost matters of theology.
Again, it’s fascinating.
I do think it was the bond market. Bessent sees this literally first hand. Japan is our number one buyer (per earlier post). But billionaires losing 20-40 billion, people like Ben Shapiro and Dave Portnoy going “what?” And retirees seeing 20-25 percent of their savings evaporate also played a role.
What do I hope happens? Get closer to zero percent financial tariffs with the 60-70 countries, call it a win for now, then move to China and pivot to getting the budget passed along with removing the incredibly onerous regulatory structure that hell even Ezra Klein believes needs to be radically rethought and Trump is cruising again along with this country.