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Thoughts of the Day: December 9, 2021

By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:
COREY RAYMOND IS A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME

The best defensive backs coach in all of college football will be coaching the corners for Billy Napier and the Florida Gators in 2022. Corey Raymond, for ten years the coach who was synonymous with the phrase LSU/DBU is coming to Gainesville, a move that speaks volumes to the kind of coaching staff Napier is bringing together.

Some coaching hires create a few ripples. This one is a tidal wave, not only because Raymond is unsurpassed for taking high school kids and transforming them into future NFL defensive backs, but because he is an absolute monster on the recruiting trail as well. Raymond was LSU’s recruiting coordinator the last two years when the Tigers brought in the fourth (2020) and third (2021) ranked classes in the nation.

The timing is marvelous as it comes at a moment when the recruiting class assembled by the previous staff took a hit with the decommitment of a 4-star quarterback (Nick Evers) and two 4-star wide receivers (CJ Smith and Jaydon Gibson) all within the span of 36 hours. Hiring Raymond should send out a loud and clear message that Napier (a) knows what he’s doing and (b) is about to assemble a coaching staff capable of bringing in the best players in the country and developing them into the kind that can win championships.

During his 10 years at LSU, Raymond produced seven first team All-America selections including Grant Delpit, who won the 2019 Thorpe Award. Fourteen of his players were taken in the NFL Draft including three first rounders and five second rounders.

Raymond is not the kind of coach who would take a job at Florida if he weren’t certain that Napier is going to surround him with outstanding coaching talent and recruiters who will bring in highly regarded high school, jucos and transfers.

There are rumors all over the place about who Napier will be adding to his staff, but the two names that are being heard most are current Jacksonville Jaguars defensive line coach Tosh Lupoi and Penn State running backs coach Ja’Juan Seider. Lupoi spent five years on the Alabama staff including three with Napier. He’s considered one of the best recruiters in the business. Seider is a Belle Glade native who was on Jim McElwain’s Florida staff in 2017. Napier, if you remember, worked for McElwain as the wide receivers coach in 2012 so there is a connection. Like Lupoi, he’s an outstanding recruiter.

THE SCORE WAS IRRELEVANT, THE FLOOR BURNS WEREN’T FOR THE GATORS
Mike White even said post game that the final score of Florida’s win over North Florida – 85-55 – wasn’t nearly as important as the number of floor burns he saw from the Gators (7-2) Wednesday night at the O-Dome. Just 48 hours after one of the least inspired UF basketball efforts of the past 30 years, the Gators came out with a high level of intensity that showed up in the number of floor burns. The Gators were diving to make steals or corral loose balls. They were moving their feet on defense instead of trying to reach for everything. Although outrebounded 39-36 by the visiting Ospreys, that had more to do with a lot of long rebounds because they were shooting jumpers instead of trying to get into the paint.

Monday night the Gators lost by 15 points to previously winless Texas Southern, a game in which they showed very little energy and hustle. Wednesday night, they were determined to play to what White says is “our identity.”

Penn State transfer Myreon Jones, who scored 14 points to go with four rebounds, one assist and two steals, said that Tuesday’s practice was all about regaining the defensive focus and intensity that were the Gators calling card in their first six games.

“We just had to find our identity back, you know,” Jones said. “That’s what we focused on the most, finding our indentity and getting back to who we are. Just starting the game off with an indentity, that’s what got us this win.”

This was a night when everyone from the starters to the guys coming off the bench got into the intensity act, especially at the defensive end. The Gators forced 28 North Florida turnovers that led to 33 points. The Gators were credited with 21 steals, the most in any game since White became Florida’s head coach and the most since a 1999 game with VMI. Monday night, Texas Southern shot better than 50 percent from the field overall and the 3-point line. The Gators held the Ospreys to 34 percent (18-53) from the field and just 23.8 percent (5-23) from the 3-point line.

Colin Castleton, who had a career-high 26 points to go with eight rebounds, two assists, one blocked shot and two steals against North Florida, took the loss to Texas Southern personally. He didn’t get much sleep Monday night and by practice Tuesday, he stepped up as a leader.

“I took it personal and put it to work,” he said.

Wednesday’s team effort and intensity had everything to do with not just Castleton, but the entire team taking responsibility for the poor effort against Texas Southern.

“You have to take accountability for what you do and how we play out there,” Castleton said. “Like I said after the loss, the coaches put us in the position to win a game, but we just didn’t execture it or play the way we were supposed to. We knew we had to get it done tonight and it’s just what we have to do every night to win games.”

Tyree Appleby scored 13 points and led the defensive effort with three steals.

The Gators had another bad shooting night from the 3-point line – just 5-23, which makes them 14-71 in their last three games. Unlike the last two games, however, the Gators did move the basketball and most of the 3-point attempts were good looks at the basket. Overall, the Gators hit 44.6 percent from the field (29-65). Additionally UF outscored the Ospreys 48-26 in the paint, scored 28 off fast breaks and there were 10 dunks.

Next up for the Gators is a Sunday afternoon game with Maryland at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn in the Basketball Hall of Fame Invitational.

SEC BASKETBALL
Wednesday’s game: No. 20 FLORIDA (7-2) 85, North Florida (2-9) 55
Friday’s game:
Loyola Chicago (8-2) at Vanderbilt (5-3)
Saturday’s games: Nebraska (5-5) at No. 18 Auburn (7-1); No. 12 Arkansas (9-0) at Oklahoma (7-2); Mississippi State (6-2) at Colorado State (9-0); Missouri (5-4) at No. 8 Kansas (7-1); UNC-Greensboro (7-2) at No. 13 Tennessee (6-2); No. 10 Kentucky (7-1) at Notre Dame (3-4); No. 25 LSU (8-0) at Georgia Tech (5-3); TCU (7-1) at Texas A&M (7-1); Western Kentucky (5-4) at Ole Miss (6-2); No. 14 Houston (8-1) at No. 9 Alabama (7-1)
Sunday’s games: No. 20 FLORIDA (7-2) vs. Maryland (5-4) at Brooklyn, NY; Florida State (5-3) vs. South Carolina (6-2) at Rock Hill, SC

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC
Alabama:
Alabama had four players named first team All-America by CBS Sports: QB Bryce Young, WR Jameson Williams, LT Evan Neal and LB Will Anderson. Named to the second team was S Jordan Battle.

Arkansas: Wide receiver Treylon Burks (67-1,123, 11 TDs) is opting out of the Hogs’ Outback Bowl game with Penn State rather than risk an injury that could affect his NFL Draft status.

Auburn: The three names that have emerged as Auburn’s next offensive coordinator are Florida State offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, Georgia running backs coach Dell McGee and Texas A&M wide receivers coach Dameyune Craig. Craig is a former Auburn quarterback.

Georgia: Georgia’s “generational” defense landed only two players on the CBS Sports All-America team, DT Jordan Davis and LB Nakobe Dean. Freshman tight end Brock Bowers made first team on the offensive side of the ball.

Kentucky: OL Darian Kinard was named first team CBS Sports All-America and defensive end Josh Paschal made second team.

LSU: College football insider Brett McMurphy reports that LSU was prepared to offer Jimbo Fisher an 8-year deal worth $125 million to leave Texas A&M … New coach Brian Kelly, who signed a paltry 10 years and $95 million will retain offensive line coach Brad Davis, whose troops gave up 38 sacks and opened the holes for 109.4 rushing yards per game (3.22 per carry).

Mississippi State: Mississippi State linebacker Rodney Groce Jr., who played in one game in 2021, is transferring to Arizona State … Liberty Bowl officials will allow Mississippi State fans to bring their cowbells for their game with Texas Tech.

Missouri: Running back Tyler Batie made second team CBS Sports All-America … Wide receiver Ja’Mori Maclin, has transferred to North Texas. He suffered an ankle injury and had no stats in 2021 at Mizzou.

Ole Miss: Former Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, who will be paid $2 million per year as the OC at Oklahoma, sent his good-bye message to Ole Miss via Twitter ahead of taking the job at OU … Lane Kiffin is not leaving Ole Miss for Oregon although there were reports that Oregon benefactor Phil Knight wanted Kiffin to come to Eugene.

South Carolina: Defensive backs Dominic Hill and Jahmar Brown have entered the NCAA transfer portal.

Tennessee: Running back Tiyon Evans, who was the Vols’ leading rusher when he surprised everyone by entering the transfer portal with a couple games remaining, has committed to Louisville.

Texas A&M: Defensive tackle De Marvin Leal made first team CBS Sports All-America and OT Kenyon Green made second team … Defensive back Keldrick Carper is retiring from football for medical reasons. He played in 50 games during his career at A&M, recording 126 tackles.

FOOTBALL IN THE MINOR LEAGUES
Miami:
Dan Radakovich is leaving Clemson for Miami with a deal that will more than triple his $800,000 salary. It’s interesting that Miami will pony up $8 million a year for Mario Cristobal and nearly $3 million a year for Radakovich but won’t invest in a stadium.

Florida State: Vince Tyra is about to leave Louisville to become the athletic director at FSU. Tyra was let out of his non-compete clause Wednesday per Football Scoop.

Virginia: With Anthony Poindexter electing to stay at Penn State, Clemson offensive coordinator Tony Elliott is expected to be named Virginia’s head coach.

Florida International: Former San Jose State and Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre is the leading candidate to replace Butch Davis at FIU.

Houston: This is fairly unprecedented. Houston’s Marcus Jones made first team CBS All-America as an All-Purpose player and second team as a punt returner and cornerback.

Fresno State: Jeff Tedford, who retired after the 2019 season for health reasons, apparently has regained his health. Fresno State hired him again Wednesday in a 5-year deal worth $8 million.

Nebraska: Mark Whipple who was the offensive coordinator at Pitt where he coached up Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett, has been named the offensive coordinator at Nebraska.

Troy: New head coach Jon Sumrall has retained former Gator Bam Hardmon as he outside linebackers coach.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Now that this latest rash of coach firings and hirings has alarmed the hierarchy in college football, the NCAA football oversight committee is talking about changing the early signing period. It’s about time someone paid attention to the consequences of a mid-December signing period, the biggest one being in-season firings that lead to hiring coaches sometimes within a day after the regular season ends to get a jump on salvaging a recruiting class. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, who was never a proponent of a December signing period, told ESPN that the problems early signing could cause for coaching changes was “foreseeable” back in 2009 when a white paper discussed all the drawbacks.

“There was something sensible about February [national signing day],” Sankey said. “You were through the hiring cycle … very rarely did you have any coaching changes after signing day. There was relevance to that.”

I am convinced that there should be a December signing day for only kids who have qualified academically to early enroll, but everyone else should be required to sign in February. I would also like to see December declared a dead period except for coaches to call kids who are academically qualified and have been accepted for early enrollment.

QB I like - heard from Napier

Robbie Roper, has heard from Napier and OHara could possibly visit this weekend he told me but kind of up in the air…….

“I really like the hire of coach Napier and coach O’Hara. I like how both coaches helped develop Levi Lewis at Louisiana and think that it will be a quick turnaround at Flordia. I have heard from coach Napier and have talked about coming up this weekend but hasn’t been confirmed yet.”

DB Board post Raymond hire

Like I've said all day today, just be patient guys. Billy has a plan. Stricklin has seen this plan and our administration and boosters gave Napier all the resources they have never given any other coach. If we land some of the rumored coaches here in the next couple weeks, I'm guessing we hire a WR & TE coach here before the weekend, I think we are going to be pretty good from a staff perspective under Billy.

Now that we the most respected DB coach in the country, I wonder how much things change with DB recruits in the 2022 class. Here are some guys I hope decide to hold off, sign in February and we can get them on campus (I don't think we have to worry about getting our foot into the door at IMG anymore).

- Jaheim Singletary - will he show up for an OV this weekend or will he hold off until NSD?
- Kamari Wilson - he was very interested in LSU. Now Raymond is in Gainesville.
- Devin Moore - I think Raymond seals the deal on this kid
- Elias Ricks - transfer DB from LSU. We have to kick the tires here right?
- Denver Harris - 5 star DB out of Texas who is extremely high on Raymond DB board. Can we get him on campus? He is uncommitted.
- We visited IMG today and with Venebles no longer being at Clemson, i'm very interested what happens with a lot of their defensive commits. Do Jeadyn Lukus and Daylen Everette wait until NSD now to see who Clemson hires as a DC? Raymond offered both at LSU
- Laterrance Welch. Committed to LSU and is from Lafayette, Louisiana.
- JaDarian Rhym. LSU commit from right down the street in Valdosta, Georgia.
- Jacoby Matthews. Once committed to LSU. Decommitted. Kinda had interest in Florida but not sure he ever made it to campus.

This is why I'm interested to see who decides to not sign during this early period and why it is best to be patient. Just like CBN asked.

Quiet on the staffing front

College Football is leakier than a screen door on a submarine, but the NFL isn't. That's why we're getting radio silence on most of these moves.

Before I say what I'm going to say, remember to take everything with a grain of salt because it's the internet. I also don't post "what I'm hearing" from insiders--I only post what I could back up with the receipts (for example if Stricklin were to say they haven't hired a new guy yet, but I've seen the contract or know the contract is signed because of "reasons"). Also, please do not try to make assumptions based off any of my posts and instead take them as only providing the information specifically stated.

Anyway, there's action (or has been action) on the following guys:

Brent Key
Chad Hall
Marquand Manuel
Matt Canada
Mike Peterson
Tee Martin
Zach Azzanni
Zak Hill

With the names above, I think this is a potential staff:

Head Coach / "OC": Billy Napier

IOL: Rob Sale
OOL / RGC: Brent Key
RB: Jabbar Juluke
WR / PGC: Zach Azzanni
TE: Desmond Kitchings

DC / S: Marquand Manuel
DL: Tosh Lupoi
ILB: Patrick Toney
OLB: Mike Peterson
CB: Corey Raymond

Someone will have to also pick up Special Teams on the side.

I hear alot about-

trusting the plan and “this program is a rebuild” and this program is a dumpster fire and it’s going to take time etc. I disagree to an extent and believe that Florida, especially with the upgrades as of late with its facilities and the overall rich history in the Swamp, can and will recruit itself, it just needs someone truly passionate and a relentless competitor/leader to right the ship. As Bear Bryant once put it, “Florida is a sleeping giant”.

Is Napier the guy? Time will tell more likely sooner than later and is the reason for my post. Losing guys like Evers isn’t a good start, at all, when looking down the line at depth and talent, something we’re lacking on both fronts across the board especially at key positions like QB.

If I were Napier, regardless of his supposed longterm plan, I’d look at past coaches here and the fan base of the University of Florida and realize the expectations here and understand the fact that time isn’t exactly on your side, no matter who you may be and that rang true for Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer.

Mullen was fired not even through his 4th season here after going 10-3 his first year and routing Michigan by 30 points in a bowl. He followed that year in 2019 with an 11-2 record and a Capital One bowl win over UVA.

2020 was an odd year with Covid and with postponed games and an underwhelming 8-4 record but Mullen still managed to manhandle Georgia and make it to the SECCG and put 46 points on the board only to lose to Alabama by just a TD. Otherwise, Florida is in the CFB playoffs with a different mindset and chance at a true Nat’l Championship last year. The following year, this year, he’s gone before the regular season even finishes.

I said this before Napier was chosen as HC and what worried me most about him is his lack of experience at a major program like Florida, this isn’t a learn-on-the-job type of undertaking where fans and those higher up will give you time. He needs to hold on to every big recruit he can moving forward regardless of whether he’s gotten around to “evaluating” them or not because the roster is thin and is seemingly thinning by the day/week. Napier also needs to assemble his staff as quickly as possible to ease the minds of recruits and their families, it’s hard to recruit a player when you haven’t a clue who your position coach will be.

Napier could be the greatest evaluator in the world but losing out on a decent recruiting class this year will be felt for years and when he’s struggling in two to three years down the road because of lack of depth and/or overall talent, fans won’t care much less take into account the distant 2022 class and its impact, people will simply focus on the losses as they did with Mullen and every other coach here who hasn’t produced and maintained success. This isn’t unique to just Florida btw, this is the theme with all big football schools out there who demand perfection.

To his advantage, Napier does have the portal at his disposal this year, something many past coaches didn’t have and it’d behoove him to study his predecessors and realize the limited time allotted one given the title of HC at the University of Florida. All of this talk about a 5-7 year plan in my honest opinion is a joke, he’s going to be expected to produce at a high level and do so rather quickly. He needs recruits to accomplish this, blue-chip recruits across the board and those in the trenches especially on both sides of the ball and I hope he realizes the expectations are extremely high at UF.

Time will obviously tell.

Recruiting prowess compared (CUM v CBN)

Assuming we end up with the coaches rumored to be coming how does this group of coaches compare to our 2004-2010 crew? Obviously we had Meyer who is a huge deal, but we also had Mullen as OC for most of it. Charlie is a great recruiter but how good was Dan McCarney (honest question).

Seems to me if we land the guys that are being rumored we might have better recruiters top to bottom than we did under Meyer. Certainly still tons of questions beyond that on whether they can land players and if they can still coach them (I'm optimistic on both), so this isn't to say we will recruit better than those guys did in 2008/2009 etc...just curious how we would stack up.

Also I'll admit I was complaining the other day about lack of splash hires, I'll be over here eating my crow if these rumored hires come through.
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Kirby Smart Defenses

Hey y’all. I wanted to get away from some of the recruiting and staff predictions and maybe fire a shot across the northern bow (state line) and talk about Kirby Smart defenses and where they struggle. Prior to the season I put together a list of top P5 DCs across the country and ran their numbers and showed where each ranked. If anyone from the old site remembers that, Grantham was a top 15 DC but ranked near the bottom in most statistical categories except turnovers, which his teams were usually pretty good at (not sure what changed recently). Regardless Smart defenses statistically ranked near the top in most categories. I specifically went through every game against a P5 team, and Cincinnati, from the last 10 years, 2012 at Bama to 2021 UGA, and averaged out all the data. I then ran the numbers against ranked teams, future NFL QBs, and future NFL QBs on ranked teams. Assuming I figure out how to post properly on this site the data is below. For reference the only sure-fire NFL QB that UGA faced this year in my opinion is Bryce Young. You could make the argument for Nix, Uiagelelei, AR-15, and KJ Jefferson, but none of them are guaranteed to make a roster at this point in my opinion.

Note: I considered a guy an NFL QB if they were drafted as a QB (sorry Nick Marshall and Denard Robinson), have played a snap in an actual NFL game and not just preseason, or are actively on a roster.

Key: Def points- the points actually given up by the defense. Excludes non-offensive TDs

Opp PPG/YPG- The average PPG/YPG the other team scores. For instance, throughout the 10 year period the NFL QBs that Kirby faced averaged 34.5 PPG and 448.8 YPG. Kirby’s defenses held them to 23.4 PPG and 370.9 YPG.

Scoring- The average number of scoring drives per game.

%Score- The percentage of possessions ending in a score.

% TD/FG- The percentage of scores ending in a TD/FG.

PPD- Average number of points scored per possession. For reference UF averaged 3.63 in 2020, Alabama averaged 4.25 in 2020, and 2019 LSU averaged 3.8. Half ending drives to run out the clock are not included.

Number of QBSOverallPPGDef PointsOpp PPGYPGOpp YPGDrivesTDFGT.O.Scoring%Score%TD%FGTD/DrivePPD
48​
NFL QBs
24.5​
23.4​
34.5​
370.9​
448.8​
12.2​
2.81​
1.27​
1.44​
4.08​
34%​
66%​
28%​
23%​
1.9​
61​
Ranked Teams
21.7​
20.5​
33.6​
343.5​
440.0​
12.0​
2.43​
1.23​
1.31​
3.66​
30%​
63%​
30%​
20%​
1.7​
32​
Ranked/NFL
28.8​
27.2​
37.2​
411.0​
468.8​
12.2​
3.25​
1.56​
1.19​
4.81​
39%​
66%​
31%​
27%​
2.3​
112​
Overall
17.4​
16.6​
30.4​
306.3​
414.8​
11.8​
1.96​
1.00​
1.47​
2.96​
25%​
66%​
34%​
17%​
1.4​







In the last 10 years Smart has faced 112 P5 QBs, 48 NFL QBs, 61 ranked teams, and 32 NFL QBs on ranked teams. When just looking at ranked teams he is still dominant, mostly due to the talent advantage. However, when you put an NFL QB on a ranked team against him his numbers drop drastically. His teams give up almost 11 more PPG on defense and over 100 yards more per game. The number of drives is relatively the same but his teams give up almost 2 more scoring drives per game. The %TD stays relatively the same too meaning that those 2 more scoring drives are TDs more often that not.



I wanted to see what his teams looked like at UGA when he has to focus on more than just defense, from 2016-2021.

Number of QBSAt UGAPPGDef PointsOpp PPGYPGOpp YPGDrivesTDFGT.O.Scoring%Score%TD%FGTD/DrivePPD
28​
NFL QBs
26.5​
25.6​
34.7​
374.4​
449.5​
11.9​
3.04​
1.43​
1.11​
4.46​
38%​
70%​
30%​
25%​
2.1​
34​
Ranked Teams
22.1​
21.1​
33.9​
335.6​
438.2​
11.6​
2.47​
1.26​
1.15​
3.74​
32%​
65%​
32%​
21%​
1.8​
19​
Ranked/NFL
29.9​
28.5​
37.5​
403.6​
466.1​
11.7​
3.37​
1.63​
0.95​
5.00​
42%​
71%​
29%​
28%​
2.4​
68​
Overall
17.5​
16.9​
29.9​
302.7​
408.7​
11.4​
2.00​
1.00​
1.32​
3.0​
26%​
61%​
30%​
17%​
1.5​



Initially I thought there might be a correlation with the changing of offense across CFB but if you’ll notice based on the Opp PPG and YPG stats that the level of offenses he faced was relatively unchanged, averaging about the same PPG and YPG as they did during his full 10 years. So basically he faced very similar offensive numbers. Ranked/NFL QBs averaged only .3 more PPG yet his defenses have given up an average of 1.3 more PPG. When it comes to scoring his teams have gotten worse in each category, including 71% of scoring drives ending up in TDs vice FGs when playing Ranked/NFL QBs.



As a comparison here is what Pruitt did while at Alabama. FYI when I originally did these numbers prior to the season I didn’t combine ranked and NFL but you can still see the trend.

Pruitt-Alabama# of QBsPPGDef PPGOpp PPGPPG DiffYPGOpp YPGDrivesTDFGT.O.Scoring%ScoreTD/DrivePPD
NFL QBs
9​
19.2​
18.2​
34.2​
-15.9​
316.6​
444.1​
13.60​
2.10​
1.20​
1.90​
3.30​
24%​
15%​
1.30​
Ranked
16​
16.8​
16.3​
32.7​
-16.4​
293.6​
434.3​
12.90​
1.80​
1.30​
1.90​
3.10​
24%​
14%​
1.30​
Overall
24​
14.1​
13.4​
31.5​
-18.1​
270.7​
424.5​
12.60​
1.50​
1.10​
1.90​
1.10​
21%​
12%​
1.10​


Pruitt was better really across the board. Obviously he was terrible as a head coach but still.


And just for fun here is Grantham for reference, prior to this season. I’ll put Kirby below again for ease of reading.

Todd Grantham# of QBsPPGDef PPGOpp PPGPPG DiffYPGOpp YPGDrivesTDFGT.O.Scoring% Drives ScoredTD/DrivePPD
NFL QBs
23​
28.6​
27.9​
32.2​
-4.3​
391.3​
433.6​
12.30​
3.60​
1.00​
1.40​
4.60​
40%​
31%​
2.40​
Ranked
15​
29.4​
28.1​
35.5​
-7.4​
401.7​
451.2​
11.60​
3.50​
1.10​
1.50​
4.70​
43%​
32%​
2.60​
Overall
52​
23.2​
22.1​
28.8​
-6.7​
344.1​
403.9​
12.30​
2.70​
1.00​
1.80​
3.70​
30%​
22%​
1.90


Number of QBSAt UGAPPGDef PPGOpp PPGYPGOpp YPGDrivesTDFGT.O.Scoring%Score%TD%FGTD/DrivePPD
28​
NFL QBs
26.5​
25.6​
34.7​
374.4​
449.5​
11.9​
3.04​
1.43​
1.11​
4.46​
38%​
70%​
30%​
25%​
2.1​
34​
Ranked Teams
22.1​
21.1​
33.9​
335.6​
438.2​
11.6​
2.47​
1.26​
1.15​
3.74​
32%​
65%​
32%​
21%​
1.8​
19​
Ranked/NFL
29.9​
28.5​
37.5​
403.6​
466.1​
11.7​
3.37​
1.63​
0.95​
5.00​
42%​
71%​
29%​
28%​
2.4​
68​
Overall
17.5​
16.9​
29.9​
302.7​
408.7​
11.4​
2.00​
1.00​
1.32​
3.0​
26%​
61%​
30%​
17%​
1.5​

Anything seem funny when looking at Grantham vs Smart when it comes to playing NFL caliber QBs?



Lastly I wanted to look at the NFL QBs that Smart has coached against. Not all teams are created equal though. For instance Kyle Shurmur at Vandy had a lot tougher time than Bryce Young did, but he is still an NFL QB. He did beat UGA in 2016 though….

Career
SchoolQBGamesCompAttComp %YYPGY/AYPCTDTD/GINTINT/GComp %AVG YPC
3​
AlabamaM. Jones
1​
24​
32​
75.0%
417​
417.0​
13.03​
17.38
4​
4.0​
1​
1.0​
74.3%​
14.83​
18​
Ole MissC. Kelly
2​
36​
57​
63.2%​
623​
311.5​
10.93​
17.31
5​
2.5​
0​
0.0​
64.0%​
13.52​
1​
AlabamaYoung
1​
26​
44​
59.1%​
421​
421.0​
9.57​
16.19
3​
3.0​
0​
0.0​
67.6%​
13.65​
30​
UGAA. Murray
1​
18​
33​
54.5%​
265​
265.0​
8.03​
14.72
1​
1.0​
1​
1.0​
62.3%​
14.30​
4​
UFTrask
2​
51​
76​
67.1%​
731​
365.5​
9.62​
14.33
6​
3.0​
1​
0.5​
67.9%​
13.38​
10​
MizzouLock
3​
61​
111​
55.0%​
850​
283.3​
7.66​
13.93
7​
2.3​
5​
1.7​
56.9%​
13.81​
27​
TA&MManziel
2​
52​
70​
74.3%
717​
358.5​
10.24​
13.79
7​
3.5​
2​
1.0​
68.9%​
13.14​
13​
AlabamaTua
2​
24​
49​
49.0%​
330​
165.0​
6.73​
13.75​
4​
2.0​
3​
1.5​
69.3%​
15.70​
24​
ClemsonWatson
1​
30​
47​
63.8%​
405​
405.0​
8.62​
13.50
4​
4.0​
1​
1.0​
67.4%​
12.49​
26​
OSUC. Jones
1​
18​
35​
51.4%​
243​
243.0​
6.94​
13.50​
1​
1.0​
1​
1.0​
61.7%​
13.99​
28​
LSUMettenberger
2​
40​
58​
69.0%
539​
269.5​
9.29​
13.48​
2​
1.0​
0​
0.0​
61.8%​
14.21​
21​
TA&MK. Allen
1​
20​
40​
50.0%​
263​
263.0​
6.58​
13.15
1​
1.0​
3​
3.0​
61.7%​
11.96​
9​
LSUBurrow
2​
43​
68​
63.2%​
549​
274.5​
8.07​
12.77​
4​
2.0​
0​
0.0​
68.5%​
13.79​
15​
OUMayfield
1​
23​
35​
65.7%​
287​
287.0​
8.20​
12.48​
2​
2.0​
1​
1.0​
68.5%​
14.24​
19​
TennesseeDobbs
3​
48​
80​
60.0%​
593​
197.7​
7.41​
12.35
6​
2.0​
2​
0.7​
61.5%​
11.63​
22​
MSSTDak
2​
49​
90​
54.4%​
590​
295.0​
6.56​
12.04​
2​
1.0​
4​
2.0​
62.8%​
12.77​
11​
VandyShurmur
3​
38​
77​
49.4%​
450​
150.0​
5.84​
11.84​
1​
0.3​
0​
0.0​
57.1%​
12.28​
23​
MSUC. Cook
1​
19​
39​
48.7%​
210​
210.0​
5.38​
11.05​
0​
0.0​
2​
2.0​
57.5%​
13.66​
8​
TA&MMond
1​
25​
42​
59.5%
275​
275.0​
6.55​
11.00​
1​
1.0​
0​
0.0​
59.0%​
12.06​
29​
OUKnight
1​
32​
44​
72.7%
348​
348.0​
7.91​
10.88​
4​
4.0​
1​
1.0​
55.5%​
12.38​
20​
ArkansasB. Allen
4​
53​
115​
46.1%​
573​
143.3​
4.98​
10.81​
3​
0.8​
6​
1.5​
57.4%​
12.80​
25​
UFDriskel
1​
9​
28​
32.1%​
93​
93.0​
3.32​
10.33​
1​
1.0​
2​
2.0​
60.7%​
12.25​
16​
AlabamaHurts
2​
10​
17​
58.8%​
103​
51.5​
6.06​
10.30​
1​
0.5​
0​
0.0​
65.1%​
13.90​
2​
UF/ArkFranks
2​
32​
57​
56.1%​
305​
152.5​
5.35​
9.53​
2​
1.0​
3​
1.5​
61.6%​
12.64​
7​
NDBook
1​
29​
47​
61.7%​
275​
275.0​
5.85​
9.48​
2​
2.0​
2​
2.0​
63.8%​
12.29​
12​
AuburnStidham
3​
56​
91​
61.5%​
522​
174.0​
5.74​
9.32​
4​
1.3​
0​
0.0​
64.3%​
13.24​
14​
TexasEhlinger
1​
19​
27​
70.4%
169​
169.0​
6.26​
8.89​
0​
0.0​
0​
0.0​
62.5%​
12.39​
6​
CincyRidder
1​
24​
37​
64.9%
206​
206.0​
5.57​
8.58​
2​
2.0​
0​
0.0​
62.3%​
12.73​
5​
MSSTW. Rogers
1​
41​
52​
78.8%
336​
336.0​
6.46​
8.20​
1​
1.0​
0​
0.0​
73.0%​
9.02​
17​
UNCTrubisky
1​
24​
40​
60.0%​
156​
156.0​
3.90​
6.50​
0​
0.0​
0​
0.0​
67.5%​
12.34​



QBs in red have beaten Kirby Smart at least once. Of the 30 NFL QBs that he has faced 15 (50%) have an average yards per completion against his defenses within one yard or better of their career average. Ten (33%) of them, highlighted in green, averaged GREATER than their career average yards per completion. For instance, Mac Jones had a career average of 14.83 yards per completion, but against UGA he averaged 17.38. That career average includes FCS opponents, garbage time, etc. For half of the QBs to be within one yard or better of their career average is astonishing. Additionally 16 of the 30 (53.3%) have been within 5% or better of their career completion percentage when playing his defenses with 8 of them having a better completion percentage than they’ve had in their careers, highlighted in blue.





His teams at UGA are 17-11 (60.7%) against future NFL QBs and just 10-9 (52.6%) against future NFL QBs on ranked teams. The only team that I would say he doesn’t have a clear talent advantage over is Alabama. Of those 9 losses 4 have come against Bama meaning 5 have come against teams with less overall talent. And as a head coach he is overall 64-15. So in 6 seasons he has 11 losses against teams that on paper he has a clear advantage against. I’m not saying he’ll never win it all but it has been shown that elite QBs can shred his defenses. And I don’t think his teams are equipped to win shootouts. He may luck his way into a Joe Burrow situation but in my opinion he is going to continue to out-talent lesser teams and stumble against big time QBs. Let me know what you think, whether you agree or disagree or any feedback on stats you may want to see.
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