By Franz Beard
A few thoughts to jump start your New Year’s Eve:
THINKING OUT LOUD
It’s New Year’s Eve and Florida’s football season is already in the books. Not only that, it was a losing season and for the third time since 2014, we’re breaking in a new coach. This isn’t what I expected. Back in September, I really believed the Gators had a chance to play in their second straight SEC Championship Game. After the Gators lost in heartbreaking fashion to Alabama I believed that if UF could simply get past Georgia, the rematch would be Florida’s to win.
Well, I was wrong. I think most of us were.
Looking back, I see how Dan Mullen’s ability to scheme up an offense that would work against just about any defense out there was fool’s gold. At some point, you have to block and tackle and recruit. At some point, you have to motivate your players so well that they’re always ready to play at the highest levels on game day. At some point, close calls aren’t good enough.
At some point, the head coach has to evaluate all the reasons why he keeps coming up short in big games and then make the necessary changes, no matter how painful they may be. When the head coach finally makes the changes reluctantly and way too late to make a difference, you have meltdown.
I hate meltdown but what else can we call what happened from October 1 onward?
I keep rehashing the season to come up with answers, not that it will change anything but because I’m naturally curious to figure out how a coach who went 29-6 in his first 35 games could lose his grip on things so quickly. I keep going back to the Alabama game. Todd Grantham’s defense sucked in the first quarter but stuck it to the Crimson Tide for all but one drive in the second half. John Hevesy’s offensive line, which struggled in the first quarter, dominated Alabama’s front seven in quarters two through four. The same Emory Jones who couldn’t read a defense spelled CAT if you spotted him the C, the A and the T in the first quarter sliced and diced Bama in the last three quarters whether it was throwing the ball or tucking and running.
Dan Mullen had the Gators so close to knocking off the number one team in the nation. A play here or a play there. An extra point. The zebras calling a facemask on Jace McClellan or an illegal pick on John Metchie III. I could go on and on.
So close to winning, but there are no participation trophies in the SEC. I can’t shake the feeling that the last four years are nothing more than a participation trophy because close calls are how we will end up defining the Dan Mullen era.
The meltdown wasn’t fun to watch. Mullen is a nice guy, maybe too nice. Maybe that’s why he didn’t make hard choices about his assistant coaches when he had to know this really wasn’t going to work out. We all know that after the 2020 season he could have told Grantham, Hevesy and some of the other coaches who needed to go that it would be a great idea if they found gainful employment elsewhere. We all know that by waiting until November to jettison Grantham and Hevesy it was too little too late. By then the Gators had fallen off the cliff, Mullen was in freefall and his firing was inevitable.
So here we are, New Year’s Eve, no big bowl game this year and back to square one once again. Yogi Berra would say “It’s déjà vu all over again.” Urban Meyer left the program with a lot of talent but shoes almost too big to fill. Will Muschamp couldn’t fill them. Jim McElwain certainly couldn’t. Dan Mullen owed his climb up the coaching ladder to Meyer, but he never recruited the way Meyer did and he never surrounded himself with the kind of assistant coaches that could turn each position group into the best coached in the SEC.
So now it’s up to Billy Napier to put it all together. It just feels different with Napier than it did with the previous three coaches. Maybe the best analogy I can give is building a house. You wouldn’t build a house without first putting in a strong foundation before putting up the walls and the roof. In the 26 days since he was introduced as Florida’s head coach, he’s focused on putting in a strong foundation so that this house won’t crumble but instead will stand strong.
This is all part of Billy Napier’s people plan. He understands that it all begins with surrounding yourself with the right kind of people. We never got the feeling that Muschamp, McElwain or Mullen had enough competent people in place to get the job done. With Napier, it feels different.
So even though this is rather strange New Year’s Eve, I’m feeling confident that the Gators have the right guy at the right time. If we’re patient and give Napier a chance to implement his plan, I think we’ll see a championship-level football program. It’s been way too long since we had one.
FOOTBALL IN THE SEC
No. 1 Alabama (12-1) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (13-0): Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite to put an end to Cincinnati’s dream season and for good reason. The College Football Playoff semifinal is nothing new for Alabama, but it’s uncharted territory for the Bearcats, the first Group of Five team to ever crash the playoff party. There are two big questions that have to be answered – (1) Can Luke Fickell convince the Bearcats that they belong in the playoff and have nothing to fear from Big Bad Bama; and (2) can Nick Saban convince the Crimson Tide that they need to play their best game of the season to avoid the embarrassment of losing to a novice to this playoff thing?
I’m of the opinion that Cincinnati would have stood a better chance at springing the upset if the Bearcats had played Alabama a week or 10 days after they won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. I’m equally of the opinion that even though Alabama will be playing without wide receiver John Metchie III, the 27 days since the Georgia beatdown has allowed running back Brian Robinson to heal. That’s important because Robinson is as good as it gets in picking up blitzes and he’s an extraordinary receiver out of the backfield. I don’t think Cincinnati can cause problems for Heisman Trophy QB Brice Young without the blitz and I’m not sure the Bearcats linebackers can cover Robinson in the passing game. I also wonder how Cincinnati is going to protect quarterback Desmond Ridder from Will Anderson coming off the edge. Brice Young may have won the Heisman Trophy, but the best player on that Alabama team is Anderson, who leads the nation in sacks.
Alabama 31, Cincinnati 14
No. 2 Michigan (12-1) vs. No. 3 Georgia (12-1): In so many ways, these two teams mirror each other. Both have exceptional defensive lines and active linebackers. Both have outstanding running backs. If their quarterbacks were racehorses, we would call them pluggers. Both have coaches who won’t hear the end of it if they can’t deliver a win.
Georgia is supposed to be here although nearly everyone had the Bulldogs coming in unbeaten and the No. 1 seed, that is before stuck it to them in the SEC Championship Game. This was supposed to be the year Kirby Smart finally beat Nick Saban. If he beats Michigan and then loses to Alabama – if Alabama gets there – in the championship game, the Kirby doubters will be relentless. Michigan was supposed to lose to Ohio State but the Wolverines put the kibosh on the Buckeyes to finally get that 800-pound gorilla off Jim Harbaugh’s back. So now that he’s beaten Ohio State to get to the playoff for the first time, can Harbaugh get over this next hurdle. He accepted a paycut (from $8 million to $4 million) to keep coaching the Wolverines. If he loses, Michigan Men everywhere will be saying Harbaugh is still paid too much.
Forget the coaches for a moment. Can Georgia’s offensive tackles block Michigan’s defensive ends, both of whom are expected to go in the first 10 picks in the NFL Draft? Can Michigan run the football on Georgia’s defense, which is really stout against the ground game? Can either of the quarterbacks make enough quality throws to keep a defense honest?
Michigan 20, Georgia 17
The SEC vs. The World: This hasn’t exactly been a write home to mom bowl season for the SEC, which is now 1-5. Who in his right mind would have thought that South Carolina (7-6) would be carrying a torch that is flickering for the SEC? That the Gamecocks even made a bowl game was a shock to the system. That they hosed North Carolina (6-7) 38-21 was an even bigger shock since the QB of record in this game was Dakereon Joyner, who played wide receiver all year and who hadn’t thrown a pass since 2019. Joyner was the MVP, hitting 9-9 of his passes for 160 yards and a TD while running for 64 on 10 carries. Kevin Harris, who spent nearly the whole year in the training room, ran for 182.
Tennessee (7-6) outgained Purdue (9-4) 666-627 but lost to the Boilermakers in overtime when the zebras ruled that Jaylen Wright’s forward momentum was stopped before he stretched the ball over the goal line. That’s what Vol fans will swear until the day they die. Actually, Tennessee’s defense lost the game. Even though the Vols picked off Purdue’s Aiden O’Connell three times they gave up 534 passing yards and five TDPs.
If we’re going to be perfectly honest here, this is not a best foot forward year for the SEC. In reality, there are three exceptional teams – Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss (10-2) – and a couple of good ones – Kentucky (9-3) and Arkansas (8-4). Everybody else is not all that good. We can defend the SEC by saying the teams beat up on each other or by saying we had too many good players opt out, but that doesn’t change the fact that other than a handful of teams, the league wasn’t very good.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Matt Corral will play in the Sugar Bowl Saturday when Ole Miss (10-2) faces Big 12 champion Baylor (11-2). Corral is expected to be taken in the first round of the NFL Draft and could be the first quarterback selected. Thursday, Corral explained why he didn’t join players like Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett (Playing with its No. 3 QB, Pitt lost its Peach Bowl game to Michigan State) in opting out, using the excuse of prepping for the draft.
“I mean it was just my teammates … I never questioned it,” Corral said. “If I was them [teammates] in their shoes and they had a quarterback in the same position, I just couldn’t live with what they would think of me, like just leaving and just being like ‘alright that was the last game’ and nobody knowing that was the last game. The only reason I say this is because nobody really understands how close we really are. It just would’ve been the wrong thing to do, just no playing and just holding out on them.”
Corral is a standup guy who understands agent money will be there for him once the Sugar Bowl is played. If you really want to know why players opt out of bowl games, it has very little to do with fear of getting hurt and everything to do with signing with an agent. If they sign with an agent, they’re ineligible to play in the bowl game. So it’s easier to just say they’re prepping for the draft. How convenient.