USC, UCLA to leave Pac-12 for Big Ten in 2024: College sports begins its latest seismic shakeup
A second round of power conference realignment in as many years is officially underway
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I realize everyone likes to look at quality college sports programs but the Big Ten has bigger things - AND MONEY - on their minds with moves like this. It's called TV markets. They aren't dummiesThey will get somebody just like the big 12 did, minus Texas and OU. Naturally, it wont match the previous situation overall, no matter who it is, but that can't be helped. Imo, I think they should try to entice Kansas and Oklahoma State.
Don't go after mid-tier programs like the Big 12 did with Houston and UCF. Kansas is a great bb program in the absence of UCLA and OSU is a great overall athletic program that has the potential to be a factor in anything.
I realize everyone likes to look at quality college sports programs but the Big Ten has bigger things - AND MONEY - on their minds with moves like this. It's called TV markets. They aren't dummies
I've read - if this happens - they'll have the 4 biggest TV markets in NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia-surrounding East coast.
And TV markets like Washington D.C, Baltimore, Cleveland, Columbus, Cincy, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Indianapolis. All of those markets (city and surrounding area) are at least 3.5 million plus, And I've probably missed one or two big TV markets. Their TV markets (MONEY) is mind-boggling. Even Rutgers adds value as they pull in the New Jersey - New York City viewers
Your point about Kansas is valid as a basketball school, obviously, but I kind of think they make the pac 12 worse in football than just adding no one. Oklahoma state is a solid program, but I think it even comes close to picking up the loss of usc, they should try and swipe BYU and maybe Boise st. You get the natural rivalry with Utah which brings you some eyes, and you can lay claim to the west coast again. Maybe look at San Diego state or Fresno to try and mitigate the loss of the LA schools.Which is another reason why the Pac 12 needs to go after Kansas and Oklahoma State if they want to survive. The Pac 12 Network was already behind the SEC and Big 10-whatever before USC and UCLA bailed. It would work out very well for them to cover that region.
The Pac 12 Network would likely pay out more than whatever the Big 12 comes up with in 2025 if they jump ship as well.
Fsu awaiting the biggest offer, big 10 or SEC?
I don't see why either would go over 16 teams but you never know I guess. Some people are claiming it's too expensive for any ACC team to exit the conference now.
Either the Big 12 or the PAC 12 will probably end up raiding the other one.
I think the SEC and Big 10 are in an absolute war right now to have 2 super conferences. Yes, a single team leaving the ACC right now seems impossible because of our GOR signed thru think it's 2036??? What a dumbass commissioner we had. The only way to implode it where you can void the GOR is if multiple teams (I think it has to be more than half) want out. You would probably still have to pay for something but you could sue the ACC like Maryland did and pay of r a percentage. Maybe even get the new conference to pay.
I think SEC and big 10 both recognize that they are about even if Oregon, FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami all join the big 10. I don't think the SEC wants that, I think they will try to add FSU and Clemson at minimum. If they don't, the big 10 will.
I think both will end up at 20 teams. Have 2 divisions of 10. Play 9 division games and then a championship game against the other side
Could happen but I think both stay at 16 teams for a while. Do you know who has more leverage when it comes to the Big 12 and PAC 12 possibly raiding the other one? Are the buyouts in the PAC 12 not that bad?
Edit: I see Oregon and Washington are already asking for the Big 10 to take them in also. If that was to happen then the 2 Arizona schools and probably Colorado and Utah end up in the Big 12 I would think.
Last year the B12 was walking to the chair. This year it's the P12. Pretty soon it will be the ACC. That alliance thing didn't work out so well. Sad thing is that it wasn't the SEC, or B1G that poached these teams. It was the universities who willingly walked over to change sides. The leagues just said okay. Who wouldn't take Texas, Oklahoma, and the L.A market when negotiating for television dollars?
So I went through some scenarios and I have time right now before 4th of July things start.
By 2030 we'll likely have 4, 18 team super conferences. Here's how I could see it shaking out (this scenario plays that the SEC doesn't poach from the ACC).
BIG10:
East:
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers
Purdue
Northwestern
Indiana
West:
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
*USC
*UCLA
*Cal
*Stanford
The Big10 secures their title as the best academic conference of the group. They also secure California which helps make adding USC and UCLA a better geographic fit.
Big12:
East:
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
*Cincinnati
*UCF
*Houston
West:
Texas Tech
Baylor
*BYU
*Arizona
*Arizona State
*Colorado
*Utah
*Oregon
*Washington
Big12 owns pretty much everything in the west, minus California. Not the greatest conference but theyve got footholds in markets all across the country.
Now it gets tricky because the ACC and, especially the SEC, are locked in a tough position. Pretty much any school that makes any sense for the SEC to add is already in an existing market, and as we all know, existing SEC schools aren't too keen about adding g a new school into their SEC territory. That said (and I don't love either of these options)...
SEC:
East:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
*Eastern Carolina
*Liberty
West:
TAMU
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Arkansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
*Texas
*Oklahoma
I hate adding those two but it does add North Carolina and Virginia markets while not overwhelming the the conference power. Considering how strong we are already as well as adding Texas and Oklahoma, this wouldn't be an awful move. Still don't love it, but financially makes sense (also those schools will get more exposure and "prestige" being in the conference.
ACC:
North:
Clemson
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse
*Notre Dame
*Navy
South:
FSU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
North Carolina State
*UAB
*Tulane
They get the initial upper hand because of Notre Dame's contractual affiliation, Navy keeps that rivalry and gets them back in Maryland, UAB and Tulane get them into new markets, especially Tulane.
So that's set. Each conference has a strong top end, a solid second tier, meh third tier, and a bottom tier primarily focused on markets.
What's left is a potential 5th power conference but it would obviously the worst from a strength standpoint but strong from a market share standpoint.
American Athletic Conference:
East:
Memphis
USF
SMU
Temple
Tulsa
*Arkansas State
*Marshall
*La Tech
*Western Michigan
West:
*Fresno State
*San Diego State
*Wyoming
*Colorado State
*Air Force
*Rice
*Oregon State
*Washington State
*Boise State
Obviously not impressive from a football/basketball standpoint overall but it would give them markets all across the country, which they'll need for the travel expenses. Some of these schools are in there for market purposes only, especially Rice (which brings in San Antonio).
how does that all play out? If I were in charge, I'd have each conference set up 2 divisions of 9, primarily for geographical purposes. 14 regular season games. 2 BYE weeks. Season begins mid-August. Each team plays 8 divisional games, 4 cross-divisional games, 2 OOC (I'd prefer it all be conference based but there will be plenty of schools that want to keep OOC rivalries alive). Championship weekend stays the same, first week of December. 12 team playoff. All teams get a week off, 4 power conference winners get an extra For the first round. Non-Power conferences play their low-tier bowls starting that first weekend. Then the remaining bowls are held in between the playoff bowls. Restructured, of course, to make the most intriguing matchups for viewers, not semi-predetermined conference affiliated selections.
so on and so forth.
okay. 4th of July time.
Just saying, this is what I would do if they made me Commissioner of College Football.
***Edit-went ahead and separated the divisions.
The collapse of the ACC is imminent. I think it's 2 super conferences (big 10 and SEC).
Rice is in Houston. UTSA would be the choice to make to add the San Antonio market. They recently announced they added Rice, UTSA, North Texas, Charlotte, and FAU.So I went through some scenarios and I have time right now before 4th of July things start.
By 2030 we'll likely have 4, 18 team super conferences. Here's how I could see it shaking out (this scenario plays that the SEC doesn't poach from the ACC).
BIG10:
East:
Ohio State
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Maryland
Rutgers
Purdue
Northwestern
Indiana
West:
Illinois
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
*USC
*UCLA
*Cal
*Stanford
The Big10 secures their title as the best academic conference of the group. They also secure California which helps make adding USC and UCLA a better geographic fit.
Big12:
East:
Oklahoma State
West Virginia
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
TCU
*Cincinnati
*UCF
*Houston
West:
Texas Tech
Baylor
*BYU
*Arizona
*Arizona State
*Colorado
*Utah
*Oregon
*Washington
Big12 owns pretty much everything in the west, minus California. Not the greatest conference but theyve got footholds in markets all across the country.
Now it gets tricky because the ACC and, especially the SEC, are locked in a tough position. Pretty much any school that makes any sense for the SEC to add is already in an existing market, and as we all know, existing SEC schools aren't too keen about adding g a new school into their SEC territory. That said (and I don't love either of these options)...
SEC:
East:
Alabama
Auburn
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Kentucky
*Eastern Carolina
*Liberty
West:
TAMU
LSU
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Arkansas
Missouri
Vanderbilt
*Texas
*Oklahoma
I hate adding those two but it does add North Carolina and Virginia markets while not overwhelming the the conference power. Considering how strong we are already as well as adding Texas and Oklahoma, this wouldn't be an awful move. Still don't love it, but financially makes sense (also those schools will get more exposure and "prestige" being in the conference.
ACC:
North:
Clemson
North Carolina
Duke
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Boston College
Syracuse
*Notre Dame
*Navy
South:
FSU
Miami
Virginia Tech
Virginia
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
North Carolina State
*UAB
*Tulane
They get the initial upper hand because of Notre Dame's contractual affiliation, Navy keeps that rivalry and gets them back in Maryland, UAB and Tulane get them into new markets, especially Tulane.
So that's set. Each conference has a strong top end, a solid second tier, meh third tier, and a bottom tier primarily focused on markets.
What's left is a potential 5th power conference but it would obviously the worst from a strength standpoint but strong from a market share standpoint.
American Athletic Conference:
East:
Memphis
USF
SMU
Temple
Tulsa
*Arkansas State
*Marshall
*La Tech
*Western Michigan
West:
*Fresno State
*San Diego State
*Wyoming
*Colorado State
*Air Force
*Rice
*Oregon State
*Washington State
*Boise State
Obviously not impressive from a football/basketball standpoint overall but it would give them markets all across the country, which they'll need for the travel expenses. Some of these schools are in there for market purposes only, especially Rice (which brings in San Antonio).
how does that all play out? If I were in charge, I'd have each conference set up 2 divisions of 9, primarily for geographical purposes. 14 regular season games. 2 BYE weeks. Season begins mid-August. Each team plays 8 divisional games, 4 cross-divisional games, 2 OOC (I'd prefer it all be conference based but there will be plenty of schools that want to keep OOC rivalries alive). Championship weekend stays the same, first week of December. 12 team playoff. All teams get a week off, 4 power conference winners get an extra For the first round. Non-Power conferences play their low-tier bowls starting that first weekend. Then the remaining bowls are held in between the playoff bowls. Restructured, of course, to make the most intriguing matchups for viewers, not semi-predetermined conference affiliated selections.
so on and so forth.
okay. 4th of July time.
Just saying, this is what I would do if they made me Commissioner of College Football.
***Edit-went ahead and separated the divisions.
Rice is in Houston. UTSA would be the choice to make to add the San Antonio market. They recently announced they added Rice, UTSA, North Texas, Charlotte, and FAU.
You probably spent more time working that out than the NCAA will. 😂That's your argument? I went through all of that for you to criticize Rice? Come on dude. Sheesh.
Mr. Mike Norvell's corn rows over there
(joke, btw)
I think the ACC has it on lockdown. It would cost the few teams too much money to leave.
Lol, it stood out where you said Rice would bring in the San Antonio market. Folks in San Antonio know nothing about Rice unless it's on a plate.That's your argument? I went through all of that for you to criticize Rice? Come on dude. Sheesh.
Mr. Mike Norvell's corn rows over there
(joke, btw)
Lol, it stood out where you said Rice would bring in the San Antonio market. Folks in San Antonio know nothing about Rice unless it's on a plate.
Then the fact you left off another 1/2 dozen schools already added..😂
I wasn't going to touch the Liberty argument. If the SEC went that route add Appy State. Personally extended in the Midwest and pull in Iowa State. You'd love those fans. They drink beer...lots of beer.
Ol Larry Fedora wolly beard having ahh. 🤣
Lol, it stood out where you said Rice would bring in the San Antonio market. Folks in San Antonio know nothing about Rice unless it's on a plate.
Then the fact you left off another 1/2 dozen schools already added..😂
I wasn't going to touch the Liberty argument. If the SEC went that route add Appy State. Personally extended in the Midwest and pull in Iowa State. You'd love those fans. They drink beer...lots of beer.
Ol Larry Fedora wolly beard having ahh. 🤣
At this point playing nice is out of the question. The SEC already took the 2 flagship teams from the Big 12 and the B1G already took the flagship teams from the PAC 12.Also my premise was to not poach the other major conferences, so on a whim, did okay.
mid gladly name you my co-chair though
Big 10 has no intention of staying at 16. Already offered ND. Very likely to take Oregon amd Washington as wellCould happen but I think both stay at 16 teams for a while. Do you know who has more leverage when it comes to the Big 12 and PAC 12 possibly raiding the other one? Are the buyouts in the PAC 12 not that bad?
Edit: I see Oregon and Washington are already asking for the Big 10 to take them in also. If that was to happen then the 2 Arizona schools and probably Colorado and Utah end up in the Big 12 I would think.
Big 10 has no intention of staying at 16. Already offered ND. Very likely to take Oregon amd Washington as well
I wouldnt see FSU and Clemson in the B1G. Unless academic reputation no longer matters.I think the alliance was basically the bigger teams saying to join in a co ference and ditch the trash. I wouldn't be surprised to see FSU/Clemson/Miami/Oregon and a few more joining the Big soon (next 5 or so years)
LET THE BIG DAWG READ!I wouldnt see FSU and Clemson in the B1G. Unless academic reputation no longer matters.
..I..I wouldnt see FSU and Clemson in the B1G. Unless academic reputation no longer matters.
Aside from the usual B1G pining for Notre Dame, I think UNC is the pretty girl at the ACC dance right now. FSU/Clemson/Miami may bring blue-chip football brands, but UNC is the most complete package with its basketball and added cable market.
Plus, the NCAA lets UNC get away with more shenanigans than any other program. They are the Pete Campbell to the ACCs Sterling-Cooper.
But I don’t know how they get around the exit fee and GOR.
Wasn’t Intended to be a flame. Just a factual statement that they like to tout their academic prowess and most schools won’t fit their ideal profile. Why Stanford isn’t part of their secondary move is somewhat surprising. Or maybe they are.LET THE BIG DAWG READ!
Ah. Didn't catch the sarcasm element. I'm not a big fan of emojis in general, but the eyeroll one would have been a big help there in providing clarity of intent.Wasn’t Intended to be a flame. Just a factual statement that they like to tout their academic prowess and most schools won’t fit their ideal profile. Why Stanford isn’t part of their secondary move is somewhat surprising. Or maybe they are.
Wasn’t Intended to be a flame. Just a factual statement that they like to tout their academic prowess and most schools won’t fit their ideal profile. Why Stanford isn’t part of their secondary move is somewhat surprising. Or maybe they are.