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There is a chance that only 3 SEC teams make the 12 team playoff this year...

Well somebody from the ACC will get in. I believe that Big 10, SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12/Non power 4 conf champs get an auto bid.
Miami would win it's first ACC title the year it becomes an automatic pass to the playoffs.

Watch how many "upsets" we have in CCGs when the loser will get in either way but the winner wouldn't have gotten in with a loss.
 
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ESPN playoff predictor says Bama and GA are locks to get in at 2 losses and no SECCG...

The playoff predictor says if you have 2 losses and don't make the SECCG this is your odds to make the playoff.

Bama 99%
GA 99%
Ole Miss 83%
TN 75%
Texas 63%

The odds for the others cant be nearly that high though in reality if Bama and GA are really close to being 99% locks to get in with that scenario.

It also says BYU is a 99% lock if they only lose the championship game and that Indiana is a 97% lock if they only lose to Ohio State with no championship game appearance. Miami is shown with a 33% chance if they lose their championship game

Would have been a wonderful format to have for UF's 09 team.. where you can just now lose two games and it's no big deal.

I said this to Ghost awhile back..All of this nonsense not even including the world of NIL sodomy we now live in is why many coaches and.. ones I know have gotten out of the game, it's even happening in basketball already too.
 
Would have been a wonderful format to have for UF's 09 team.. where you can just now lose two games and it's no big deal.

I said this to Ghost awhile back..All of this nonsense not even including the world of NIL sodomy we now live in is why many coaches and.. ones I know have gotten out of the game, it's even happening in basketball already too.

Imagine Spurrier with a 12 team playoff or even a 4 team playoff with the committee where your loss being later in the season wasn't a killer like it was in the AP and coaches top 25 poll. He would have had a chance almost every year.

I still think 8 teams was the right number though.
 
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lol at this playoff talk. You have TX fans acting like they deserve their ranking when their resume is barely beating Vanderbilt and getting smoked by Georgia. Take away their name and being in the SEC and they are likely around #14 or # 15.
 
lol at this playoff talk. You have TX fans acting like they deserve their ranking when their resume is barely beating Vanderbilt and getting smoked by Georgia. Take away their name and being in the SEC and they are likely around #14 or # 15.
But isn't this why they came to the SEC?
 
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even though its the first year of 12, it's one of those fields if you get in you're gonna have a chance either way.. No one is dominant and that's still gonna favor one or two of these SEC teams rosters when it matters most deep into the season and playoffs
 
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even though its the first year of 12, it's one of those fields if you get in you're gonna have a chance either way.. No one is dominant and that's still gonna favor one or two of these SEC teams rosters when it matters most deep into the season and playoffs
I can't tell if the big 10 teams are good or really good. Miami is loaded, but I think their coach is a putz.
 
Ohio State has most talent and money put into winning right now as any other team, but unless they somehow get the left side of their OL back they can't win anything if Will Howards arm is gonna be their path to winning anything.. Miami is a joke and everyone has watched them lose 3 games now to nobodies, who is their best win? is it really Napier and Florida? LMFAO

Penn States defense is amazing, but they can't score so it doesn't matter, Indiana is really good but you'll know everything you need to know next week. SMU is interesting like Indiana and they're both fun to watch. Byu is a wasted spot in the playoff, there's gonna be a couple, Oregon could lose to anyone from the SEC.
 
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Miami should have at least 3 losses. Washington State, Cam Ward's former team, is 8-1 and most likely will finish 11-1 without Ward.
 
Miami should have at least 3 losses. Washington State, Cam Ward's former team, is 8-1 and most likely will finish 11-1 without Ward.

Wash State is basically playing close to a group of 5 schedule now though. It is crazy that they could get in the playoff still as the PAC 12 champ if Boise State loses their conference championship game.
 
Ohio State has most talent and money put into winning right now as any other team, but unless they somehow get the left side of their OL back they can't win anything if Will Howards arm is gonna be their path to winning anything.. Miami is a joke and everyone has watched them lose 3 games now to nobodies, who is their best win? is it really Napier and Florida? LMFAO

Penn States defense is amazing, but they can't score so it doesn't matter, Indiana is really good but you'll know everything you need to know next week. SMU is interesting like Indiana and they're both fun to watch. Byu is a wasted spot in the playoff, there's gonna be a couple, Oregon could lose to anyone from the SEC.

Yep a lot of teams with issues. The argument from ACC fans is SMU has only lost to an undefeated #6 BYU and they have a top 20 win over Louisville while TX has no top 25 win and got rolled by Georgia so they are only ranked way lower due to SEC bias. That an Ole Miss team with 2 losses including one to KY and a Bama team with 2 losses including one to Vandy shouldn't be over them.
 
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The 5 highest ranked conference champs get in - Big 10, Big 12, SEC, ACC winners, plus the highest ranked champ from among the AAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt & AAC. Right now that team would be Boise St. The Big 10 is almost assuredly getting 3 teams in along with their champ. Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State. Along with the 4 other conference winners, that's 8 slots filled right there. Notre Dame's last 3 games are Virginia, Army & USC. Barring a major upset, they'll be in as an independent, leaving only 3 spots, which I think the SEC will take.
 
The 5 highest ranked conference champs get in - Big 10, Big 12, SEC, ACC winners, plus the highest ranked champ from among the AAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, Sun Belt & AAC. Right now that team would be Boise St. The Big 10 is almost assuredly getting 3 teams in along with their champ. Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and Penn State. Along with the 4 other conference winners, that's 8 slots filled right there. Notre Dame's last 3 games are Virginia, Army & USC. Barring a major upset, they'll be in as an independent, leaving only 3 spots, which I think the SEC will take.

The committee's worst scenario is if an undefeated BYU loses the Big 12 game and if Miami barely loses to SMU in the ACC game. The ACC will throw a fit but I think Miami would be left out but BYU would be in along with the Big 12 champ.
 
The committee's worst scenario is if an undefeated BYU loses the Big 12 game and if Miami barely loses to SMU in the ACC game. The ACC will throw a fit but I think Miami would be left out but BYU would be in along with the Big 12 champ.
I don't think BYU gets in if they lose to Colorado or whoever else they might play. Their SOS is only #56 and their FPI ranking is #27.
 
I don't think BYU gets in if they lose to Colorado or whoever else they might play. Their SOS is only #56 and their FPI ranking is #27.

You never know but I think like with TCU they won't keep an undefeated regular season power 4 team out (without they lost their QB argument) and give the spot to a 2 loss regular season team.
 
You never know but I think like with TCU they won't keep an undefeated regular season power 4 team out (without they lost their QB argument) and give the spot to a 2 loss regular season team.
Disagree, but we'll see. SOS means a lot and always has and a 2 loss SEC team will get in over a 1-loss BYU team, IMO. My prediction is that the SEC and Big 10 both get 4 in.
 
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Another crazy scenario is if Army somehow upset ND and went undefeated. If Boise State wins out also the rules just say the top 5 rated conference winners are guaranteed a spot. What if LSU made the SECCG as a 3 loss team and won it. They could actually keep the SEC Champion out it appears in that crazy scenario.
 
Well GA probably passes Ole Miss now and maybe even Bama. Would surprise me if they didn't move them up with their overall resume now.
 
UGA has no business passing anyone much less two teams that whacked them out.. UGA is not a serious team

Their overall resume is clearly the best though and TN beat Bama etc. I need to look at it some more but my initial guess would be of the 2 loss teams:

1. Bama or GA
3. Ole Miss
4. TN
5. A&M
 
Well with BYU losing and Louisville losing I think that assures 4 SEC teams are getting in now as long as they only have 2 or less regular season losses. Only the ACC and Big 12 champion should make it now.
 
This week?

1 Oregon

2 Ohio State

3 Texas

4 Penn State

5 Indiana

6 Notre Dame

7 Miami

8 Bama

9 Georgia

10 Ole Miss

11 TN

12 Boise State

13 Texas A&M

14 BYU

15 SMU

16 Colorado

17 Clemson

18 South Carolina

19 Army

20 Tulane

21 Arizona State

22 Kansas State

23 Iowa State

24 UNLV

25 Wash State (could be quite a few teams in this spot instead)
 
Georgia is ranked #5 in the latest FPI Power Index), #2 in Strength of Record.
Alabama is #2 in FPI, #7 in Strength of record
Ole Miss is #6 in FPI, #12 in SOR
Tennessee is #9 in FPI, #10 in SOR
Texas A&M is #14 in FPI, #11 in SOR

Based ony that, the only way Texas A&M gets in is to beat Texas at home. They play at Auburn this week.
Georgia only has UMASS and Georgia Tech left to play and assuming they win both, they're a shoe-in for the playoffs, IMO
Texas hosts Kentucky and then finishes at Texas A&M. Unless they lose both games, I think they're in the playoff, win both and they're in the SEC title game.
Ole Miss finishes up at Florida and hosting Miss. State. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs. Lose one and they go on the bubble, but still could get in.
Tennessee finishes uphosting UTEP, the at Vanderbilt. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.
Alabama plays at Oklahoma, then hosts Auburn. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.

I don't know how the tie breaker works for the SEC title game but it looks like the winner of the Txas/Texas A&M game vs. whichever of the 2-loss teams wins the tiebreaker, which is described as follows:

The SEC will use six potential tie-breakers for the 2024 season in this order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tie-beaker. Did Team A beat Team B?

Step 2: Record vs. all common conference opponents.

Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams.

Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams.

Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. all conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 6: Random draw.
 
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Georgia is ranked #5 in the latest FPI Power Index), #2 in Strength of Record.
Alabama is #2 in FPI, #7 in Strength of record
Ole Miss is #6 in FPI, #12 in SOR
Tennessee is #9 in FPI, #10 in SOR
Texas A&M is #14 in FPI, #11 in SOR

Based ony that, the only way Texas A&M gets in is to beat Texas at home. They play at Auburn this week.
Georgia only has UMASS and Georgia Tech left to play and assuming they win both, they're a shoe-in for the playoffs, IMO
Texas hosts Kentucky and then finishes at Texas A&M. Unless they lose both games, I think they're in the playoff, win both and they're in the SEC title game.
Ole Miss finishes up at Florida and hosting Miss. State. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs. Lose one and they go on the bubble, but still could get in.
Tennessee finishes uphosting UTEP, the at Vanderbilt. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.
Alabama plays at Oklahoma, then hosts Auburn. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.

I don't know how the tie breaker works for the SEC title game but it looks like the winner of the Txas/Texas A&M game vs. whichever of the 2-loss teams wins the tiebreaker, which is described as follows:

The SEC will use six potential tie-breakers for the 2024 season in this order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tie-beaker. Did Team A beat Team B?

Step 2: Record vs. all common conference opponents.

Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams.

Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams.

Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. all conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 6: Random draw.

I think Bama is the 2 loss team that comes out on top in most of the SEC tiebreaker scenarios to make the SECCG.

If TX makes the playoff at 10-2 losing to A&M over any other SEC 10-2 team that would be a joke as their best win would be over Vandy.

If we really end up with six 10-2 SEC teams I think TN and TX would be left out based on the resumes.
 
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Georgia is ranked #5 in the latest FPI Power Index), #2 in Strength of Record.
Alabama is #2 in FPI, #7 in Strength of record
Ole Miss is #6 in FPI, #12 in SOR
Tennessee is #9 in FPI, #10 in SOR
Texas A&M is #14 in FPI, #11 in SOR

Based ony that, the only way Texas A&M gets in is to beat Texas at home. They play at Auburn this week.
Georgia only has UMASS and Georgia Tech left to play and assuming they win both, they're a shoe-in for the playoffs, IMO
Texas hosts Kentucky and then finishes at Texas A&M. Unless they lose both games, I think they're in the playoff, win both and they're in the SEC title game.
Ole Miss finishes up at Florida and hosting Miss. State. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs. Lose one and they go on the bubble, but still could get in.
Tennessee finishes uphosting UTEP, the at Vanderbilt. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.
Alabama plays at Oklahoma, then hosts Auburn. Win both and they're almost a lock for the playoffs.

I don't know how the tie breaker works for the SEC title game but it looks like the winner of the Txas/Texas A&M game vs. whichever of the 2-loss teams wins the tiebreaker, which is described as follows:

The SEC will use six potential tie-breakers for the 2024 season in this order until the tie is broken:

Step 1: Head-to-head competition: This is the easiest tie-beaker. Did Team A beat Team B?

Step 2: Record vs. all common conference opponents.

Step 3: Record against highest (best) placed common conference opponent in the conference standings, and proceeding through the conference standings among tied teams.

Step 4: Cumulative conference winning percentages of all conference opponents among tied teams.

Step 5: Capped relative total scoring margin vs. all conference opponents among the tied teams.

Step 6: Random draw.
Ramblin' Wreck could put up a fight. Fingers crossed.
 
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I don't see any way SEC gets 5 unless they add a 3 loss SEC team. Once the dust settles, I suspect it will be Texas, Bama, GA and TN.

It would take ND getting upset for 5 to get in.

If Auburn, UF or Vandy pulls an upset on someone that would get the 2 loss or less SEC teams at least down to 5. If there is 5 or 6 and TX was allowed in after losing to A&M it would make a mockery of the committee looking at their schedule.
 
It would take ND getting upset for 5 to get in.

If Auburn, UF or Vandy pulls an upset on someone that would get the 2 loss or less SEC teams at least down to 5. If there is 5 or 6 and TX was allowed in after losing to A&M it would make a mockery of the committee looking at their schedule.
On the flip side, if AM beats Texas, which they can, then will be hard to leave out the SEC regular season champ. That's assuming AM handles Auburn this weekend.
 
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