My four sons and I have had a long string of texts on how much SOS will matter in playoff decisions vs. absolute record. The hypothetical (but certainly plausible) scenario we batted back and forth was Mizzou going 10-2 (losses at Bama and at home to OU) and UF going 8-4, with losses to UGA (neutral site), Texas (on road), Tennessee (on Road), and Ole Miss (at home.) I argued that UF would have a better resume, and some (non UF graduate) sons argued against me.
Under that scenario, Mizzou would have 1 win against a top 25 team (A&M at 20), and two losses to teams ranked 5 and 16 (one at home). Their OOC wins would include UMass, Boston College, Murray State, and Buffalo. Their SEC wins would include the four teams currently ranked lowest in the league (Arky, Vandy, USC, and Miss state. UF would have 4 wins against top 25 teams, including #10 (FSU), #13 (LSU), #19 (Miami), and #20 (A&M.) The four losses would be to #1 UGA, #4 Texas, #6 Ole Miss, and #16 Tennessee. The OOC wins would be agains UCF, Miami, FSU, and Samford.
While I certainly don't think going 8-4, even with UF's schedule, gets you in the playoffs, I can't see how you could put a Mizzou in ahead of UF. The SOS isn't in the same ballpark under any approach you look at--and Florida would have 3 more high quality wins.
Curious how you guys expect that committee is going to look at things under the expanded playoff. In the past, # of wins clearly was more important than SOS. Will that be the case going forward since there are a lot more spots?
Under that scenario, Mizzou would have 1 win against a top 25 team (A&M at 20), and two losses to teams ranked 5 and 16 (one at home). Their OOC wins would include UMass, Boston College, Murray State, and Buffalo. Their SEC wins would include the four teams currently ranked lowest in the league (Arky, Vandy, USC, and Miss state. UF would have 4 wins against top 25 teams, including #10 (FSU), #13 (LSU), #19 (Miami), and #20 (A&M.) The four losses would be to #1 UGA, #4 Texas, #6 Ole Miss, and #16 Tennessee. The OOC wins would be agains UCF, Miami, FSU, and Samford.
While I certainly don't think going 8-4, even with UF's schedule, gets you in the playoffs, I can't see how you could put a Mizzou in ahead of UF. The SOS isn't in the same ballpark under any approach you look at--and Florida would have 3 more high quality wins.
Curious how you guys expect that committee is going to look at things under the expanded playoff. In the past, # of wins clearly was more important than SOS. Will that be the case going forward since there are a lot more spots?
