Kirby Smart Defenses

[rhode15]

Hey y’all. I wanted to get away from some of the recruiting and staff predictions and maybe fire a shot across the northern bow (state line) and talk about Kirby Smart defenses and where they struggle. Prior to the season I put together a list of top P5 DCs across the country and ran their numbers and showed where each ranked. If anyone from the old site remembers that, Grantham was a top 15 DC but ranked near the bottom in most statistical categories except turnovers, which his teams were usually pretty good at (not sure what changed recently). Regardless Smart defenses statistically ranked near the top in most categories. I specifically went through every game against a P5 team, and Cincinnati, from the last 10 years, 2012 at Bama to 2021 UGA, and averaged out all the data. I then ran the numbers against ranked teams, future NFL QBs, and future NFL QBs on ranked teams. Assuming I figure out how to post properly on this site the data is below. For reference the only sure-fire NFL QB that UGA faced this year in my opinion is Bryce Young. You could make the argument for Nix, Uiagelelei, AR-15, and KJ Jefferson, but none of them are guaranteed to make a roster at this point in my opinion.

Note: I considered a guy an NFL QB if they were drafted as a QB (sorry Nick Marshall and Denard Robinson), have played a snap in an actual NFL game and not just preseason, or are actively on a roster.

Key: Def points- the points actually given up by the defense. Excludes non-offensive TDs

Opp PPG/YPG- The average PPG/YPG the other team scores. For instance, throughout the 10 year period the NFL QBs that Kirby faced averaged 34.5 PPG and 448.8 YPG. Kirby’s defenses held them to 23.4 PPG and 370.9 YPG.

Scoring- The average number of scoring drives per game.

%Score- The percentage of possessions ending in a score.

% TD/FG- The percentage of scores ending in a TD/FG.

PPD- Average number of points scored per possession. For reference UF averaged 3.63 in 2020, Alabama averaged 4.25 in 2020, and 2019 LSU averaged 3.8. Half ending drives to run out the clock are not included.

Number of QBS

Overall

PPG

Def Points

Opp PPG

YPG

Opp YPG

Drives

TD

FG

T.O.

Scoring

%Score

%TD

%FG

TD/Drive

PPD

48​

NFL QBs

24.5​

23.4​

34.5​

370.9​

448.8​

12.2​

2.81​

1.27​

1.44​

4.08​

34%​

66%​

28%​

23%​

1.9​

61​

Ranked Teams

21.7​

20.5​

33.6​

343.5​

440.0​

12.0​

2.43​

1.23​

1.31​

3.66​

30%​

63%​

30%​

20%​

1.7​

32​

Ranked/NFL

28.8​

27.2​

37.2​

411.0​

468.8​

12.2​

3.25​

1.56​

1.19​

4.81​

39%​

66%​

31%​

27%​

2.3​

112​

Overall

17.4​

16.6​

30.4​

306.3​

414.8​

11.8​

1.96​

1.00​

1.47​

2.96​

25%​

66%​

34%​

17%​

1.4​

In the last 10 years Smart has faced 112 P5 QBs, 48 NFL QBs, 61 ranked teams, and 32 NFL QBs on ranked teams. When just looking at ranked teams he is still dominant, mostly due to the talent advantage. However, when you put an NFL QB on a ranked team against him his numbers drop drastically. His teams give up almost 11 more PPG on defense and over 100 yards more per game. The number of drives is relatively the same but his teams give up almost 2 more scoring drives per game. The %TD stays relatively the same too meaning that those 2 more scoring drives are TDs more often that not.



I wanted to see what his teams looked like at UGA when he has to focus on more than just defense, from 2016-2021.

Number of QBS

At UGA

PPG

Def Points

Opp PPG

YPG

Opp YPG

Drives

TD

FG

T.O.

Scoring

%Score

%TD

%FG

TD/Drive

PPD

28​

NFL QBs

26.5​

25.6​

34.7​

374.4​

449.5​

11.9​

3.04​

1.43​

1.11​

4.46​

38%​

70%​

30%​

25%​

2.1​

34​

Ranked Teams

22.1​

21.1​

33.9​

335.6​

438.2​

11.6​

2.47​

1.26​

1.15​

3.74​

32%​

65%​

32%​

21%​

1.8​

19​

Ranked/NFL

29.9​

28.5​

37.5​

403.6​

466.1​

11.7​

3.37​

1.63​

0.95​

5.00​

42%​

71%​

29%​

28%​

2.4​

68​

Overall

17.5​

16.9​

29.9​

302.7​

408.7​

11.4​

2.00​

1.00​

1.32​

3.0​

26%​

61%​

30%​

17%​

1.5​

Initially I thought there might be a correlation with the changing of offense across CFB but if you’ll notice based on the Opp PPG and YPG stats that the level of offenses he faced was relatively unchanged, averaging about the same PPG and YPG as they did during his full 10 years. So basically he faced very similar offensive numbers. Ranked/NFL QBs averaged only .3 more PPG yet his defenses have given up an average of 1.3 more PPG. When it comes to scoring his teams have gotten worse in each category, including 71% of scoring drives ending up in TDs vice FGs when playing Ranked/NFL QBs.



As a comparison here is what Pruitt did while at Alabama. FYI when I originally did these numbers prior to the season I didn’t combine ranked and NFL but you can still see the trend.

Pruitt-Alabama

# of QBs

PPG

Def PPG

Opp PPG

PPG Diff

YPG

Opp YPG

Drives

TD

FG

T.O.

Scoring

%Score

TD/Drive

PPD

NFL QBs

9​

19.2​

18.2​

34.2​

-15.9​

316.6​

444.1​

13.60​

2.10​

1.20​

1.90​

3.30​

24%​

15%​

1.30​

Ranked

16​

16.8​

16.3​

32.7​

-16.4​

293.6​

434.3​

12.90​

1.80​

1.30​

1.90​

3.10​

24%​

14%​

1.30​

Overall

24​

14.1​

13.4​

31.5​

-18.1​

270.7​

424.5​

12.60​

1.50​

1.10​

1.90​

1.10​

21%​

12%​

1.10​

Pruitt was better really across the board. Obviously he was terrible as a head coach but still.


And just for fun here is Grantham for reference, prior to this season. I’ll put Kirby below again for ease of reading.

Todd Grantham

# of QBs

PPG

Def PPG

Opp PPG

PPG Diff

YPG

Opp YPG

Drives

TD

FG

T.O.

Scoring

% Drives Scored

TD/Drive

PPD

NFL QBs

23​

28.6​

27.9​

32.2​

-4.3​

391.3​

433.6​

12.30​

3.60​

1.00​

1.40​

4.60​

40%​

31%​

2.40​

Ranked

15​

29.4​

28.1​

35.5​

-7.4​

401.7​

451.2​

11.60​

3.50​

1.10​

1.50​

4.70​

43%​

32%​

2.60​

Overall

52​

23.2​

22.1​

28.8​

-6.7​

344.1​

403.9​

12.30​

2.70​

1.00​

1.80​

3.70​

30%​

22%​

1.90 ​

Number of QBS

At UGA

PPG

Def PPG

Opp PPG

YPG

Opp YPG

Drives

TD

FG

T.O.

Scoring

%Score

%TD

%FG

TD/Drive

PPD

28​

NFL QBs

26.5​

25.6​

34.7​

374.4​

449.5​

11.9​

3.04​

1.43​

1.11​

4.46​

38%​

70%​

30%​

25%​

2.1​

34​

Ranked Teams

22.1​

21.1​

33.9​

335.6​

438.2​

11.6​

2.47​

1.26​

1.15​

3.74​

32%​

65%​

32%​

21%​

1.8​

19​

Ranked/NFL

29.9​

28.5​

37.5​

403.6​

466.1​

11.7​

3.37​

1.63​

0.95​

5.00​

42%​

71%​

29%​

28%​

2.4​

68​

Overall

17.5​

16.9​

29.9​

302.7​

408.7​

11.4​

2.00​

1.00​

1.32​

3.0​

26%​

61%​

30%​

17%​

1.5​

Anything seem funny when looking at Grantham vs Smart when it comes to playing NFL caliber QBs?



Lastly I wanted to look at the NFL QBs that Smart has coached against. Not all teams are created equal though. For instance Kyle Shurmur at Vandy had a lot tougher time than Bryce Young did, but he is still an NFL QB. He did beat UGA in 2016 though….

Career

School

QB

Games

Comp

Att

Comp %

Y

YPG

Y/A

YPC

TD

TD/G

INT

INT/G

Comp %

AVG YPC

3​

Alabama

M. Jones

1​

24​

32​

75.0%​

417​

417.0​

13.03​

17.38​

4​

4.0​

1​

1.0​

74.3%​

14.83​

18​

Ole Miss

C. Kelly

2​

36​

57​

63.2%​

623​

311.5​

10.93​

17.31​

5​

2.5​

0​

0.0​

64.0%​

13.52​

1​

Alabama

Young

1​

26​

44​

59.1%​

421​

421.0​

9.57​

16.19​

3​

3.0​

0​

0.0​

67.6%​

13.65​

30​

UGA

A. Murray

1​

18​

33​

54.5%​

265​

265.0​

8.03​

14.72​

1​

1.0​

1​

1.0​

62.3%​

14.30​

4​

UF

Trask

2​

51​

76​

67.1%​

731​

365.5​

9.62​

14.33​

6​

3.0​

1​

0.5​

67.9%​

13.38​

10​

Mizzou

Lock

3​

61​

111​

55.0%​

850​

283.3​

7.66​

13.93​

7​

2.3​

5​

1.7​

56.9%​

13.81​

27​

TA&M

Manziel

2​

52​

70​

74.3%​

717​

358.5​

10.24​

13.79​

7​

3.5​

2​

1.0​

68.9%​

13.14​

13​

Alabama

Tua

2​

24​

49​

49.0%​

330​

165.0​

6.73​

13.75​

4​

2.0​

3​

1.5​

69.3%​

15.70​

24​

Clemson

Watson

1​

30​

47​

63.8%​

405​

405.0​

8.62​

13.50​

4​

4.0​

1​

1.0​

67.4%​

12.49​

26​

OSU

C. Jones

1​

18​

35​

51.4%​

243​

243.0​

6.94​

13.50​

1​

1.0​

1​

1.0​

61.7%​

13.99​

28​

LSU

Mettenberger

2​

40​

58​

69.0%​

539​

269.5​

9.29​

13.48​

2​

1.0​

0​

0.0​

61.8%​

14.21​

21​

TA&M

K. Allen

1​

20​

40​

50.0%​

263​

263.0​

6.58​

13.15​

1​

1.0​

3​

3.0​

61.7%​

11.96​

9​

LSU

Burrow

2​

43​

68​

63.2%​

549​

274.5​

8.07​

12.77​

4​

2.0​

0​

0.0​

68.5%​

13.79​

15​

OU

Mayfield

1​

23​

35​

65.7%​

287​

287.0​

8.20​

12.48​

2​

2.0​

1​

1.0​

68.5%​

14.24​

19​

Tennessee

Dobbs

3​

48​

80​

60.0%​

593​

197.7​

7.41​

12.35​

6​

2.0​

2​

0.7​

61.5%​

11.63​

22​

MSST

Dak

2​

49​

90​

54.4%​

590​

295.0​

6.56​

12.04​

2​

1.0​

4​

2.0​

62.8%​

12.77​

11​

Vandy

Shurmur

3​

38​

77​

49.4%​

450​

150.0​

5.84​

11.84​

1​

0.3​

0​

0.0​

57.1%​

12.28​

23​

MSU

C. Cook

1​

19​

39​

48.7%​

210​

210.0​

5.38​

11.05​

0​

0.0​

2​

2.0​

57.5%​

13.66​

8​

TA&M

Mond

1​

25​

42​

59.5%​

275​

275.0​

6.55​

11.00​

1​

1.0​

0​

0.0​

59.0%​

12.06​

29​

OU

Knight

1​

32​

44​

72.7%​

348​

348.0​

7.91​

10.88​

4​

4.0​

1​

1.0​

55.5%​

12.38​

20​

Arkansas

B. Allen

4​

53​

115​

46.1%​

573​

143.3​

4.98​

10.81​

3​

0.8​

6​

1.5​

57.4%​

12.80​

25​

UF

Driskel

1​

9​

28​

32.1%​

93​

93.0​

3.32​

10.33​

1​

1.0​

2​

2.0​

60.7%​

12.25​

16​

Alabama

Hurts

2​

10​

17​

58.8%​

103​

51.5​

6.06​

10.30​

1​

0.5​

0​

0.0​

65.1%​

13.90​

2​

UF/Ark

Franks

2​

32​

57​

56.1%​

305​

152.5​

5.35​

9.53​

2​

1.0​

3​

1.5​

61.6%​

12.64​

7​

ND

Book

1​

29​

47​

61.7%​

275​

275.0​

5.85​

9.48​

2​

2.0​

2​

2.0​

63.8%​

12.29​

12​

Auburn

Stidham

3​

56​

91​

61.5%​

522​

174.0​

5.74​

9.32​

4​

1.3​

0​

0.0​

64.3%​

13.24​

14​

Texas

Ehlinger

1​

19​

27​

70.4%​

169​

169.0​

6.26​

8.89​

0​

0.0​

0​

0.0​

62.5%​

12.39​

6​

Cincy

Ridder

1​

24​

37​

64.9%​

206​

206.0​

5.57​

8.58​

2​

2.0​

0​

0.0​

62.3%​

12.73​

5​

MSST

W. Rogers

1​

41​

52​

78.8%​

336​

336.0​

6.46​

8.20​

1​

1.0​

0​

0.0​

73.0%​

9.02​

17​

UNC

Trubisky

1​

24​

40​

60.0%​

156​

156.0​

3.90​

6.50​

0​

0.0​

0​

0.0​

67.5%​

12.34​

QBs in red have beaten Kirby Smart at least once. Of the 30 NFL QBs that he has faced 15 (50%) have an average yards per completion against his defenses within one yard or better of their career average. Ten (33%) of them, highlighted in green, averaged GREATER than their career average yards per completion. For instance, Mac Jones had a career average of 14.83 yards per completion, but against UGA he averaged 17.38. That career average includes FCS opponents, garbage time, etc. For half of the QBs to be within one yard or better of their career average is astonishing. Additionally 16 of the 30 (53.3%) have been within 5% or better of their career completion percentage when playing his defenses with 8 of them having a better completion percentage than they’ve had in their careers, highlighted in blue.





His teams at UGA are 17-11 (60.7%) against future NFL QBs and just 10-9 (52.6%) against future NFL QBs on ranked teams. The only team that I would say he doesn’t have a clear talent advantage over is Alabama. Of those 9 losses 4 have come against Bama meaning 5 have come against teams with less overall talent. And as a head coach he is overall 64-15. So in 6 seasons he has 11 losses against teams that on paper he has a clear advantage against. I’m not saying he’ll never win it all but it has been shown that elite QBs can shred his defenses. And I don’t think his teams are equipped to win shootouts. He may luck his way into a Joe Burrow situation but in my opinion he is going to continue to out-talent lesser teams and stumble against big time QBs. Let me know what you think, whether you agree or disagree or any feedback on stats you may want to see.

 

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