Autopsy of an Election: What We Have Learned and What We Observed

[gator1776]

I'll go first with my reflections and thoughts from today.

1) Numbers Tell a Story:
-Biden received 81,283,501 votes in 2020, the most votes EVER in a presidential election. A full 11.5 million more votes than the second highest total ever for a democrat, Obama in 2008 with 69.498,516 million votes. In 2012 Obama received 65,915,795 million votes. In 2016 Hillary received 65,853,514 million votes.
-Net increase on average of over 13 million votes over the prior 3 elections for democrats.
-Trump received 74,223,975 million votes in 2020
-Total votes cast in 2020 155,507,475 million vote, a full 26,669,917 more votes than in 2016, an increase of 17.2%
-Then, magically, in 2024 the current overall vote total for president stands at 139,685,213, a decrease of 15,822,262 (11.3%)
-Kamala received 67,462,374 million votes, a remarkable 13,821, 127 million fewer votes than Biden in 2020. That is an unprecedented 21% decrease in votes for one party in 4 years. That percentage drop is over 12% bigger drop than any such decline for either party in the 250 years of presidential elections.

WHERE DID ALL THOSE VOTES GO? DID 15,822,262 MILLION AMERICANS, AND, IN PARTICULAR, 13,821,127 MILLION DEMOCRATS SUDDENLY DECIDE NOT TO VOTE?
THAT IS A STATISTICAL OUTLYER THAT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE........................UNLESS THERE WAS BALLOT BOX STUFFING OF UNPRECIDENTED LEVELS IN 2020.

What am I saying? I'm saying that this is proof undeniable that there was cheating by the democrat party in 2020.
I was never one to blame 2020 on voter fraud (cheating). I have always accepted there is some cheating in our elections (see Chicago in 1960 for example), but until 2020 I never viewed it as rampant. I struggled with what happened in 2020 because I didn't want to accept that cheating to that degree could really happen in America, and I did not want to be a poor sport. So, I accepted it and didn't make as big a deal about it as some, like @NavigatorII

So, let's be objective about this:
The environment in 2020 was ripe for voter fraud
Covid led to unprecedented changes in the way we voted in a matter of months
There was not adequate time to ensure measures to prevent cheating
States that had never allowed mail in voting on a large scale suddenly allowed mail in voting for their entire state. They mailed ballots out and required no proof that the name on the ballot was the one that actually voted
Donald Trump and the irrational hatred of Donald Trump provided the justification to do the most Unamerican thing imaginable, cheating to steal the presidency on a massive level. To many on the left, Trump was the evil that justified an equally great evil, stealing an election
Opportunity, motive, motus operandi
So, I have gone from being suspicious to be a FIRM BELIVER THAT CERTAIN DEMOCRATS STOLE THE 2020 ELECTIONS FROM DONALD TRUMP AND AMERICAN AND I BELIEVE THE ABOVE MATH IS INDISPUTIBLE PROOF.

2) What changed from 2020 to 2024? Laws. The Republican party had 4 years to institute rules and regulations about mail in voting that required proof that the vote was actually legally filled out by the voter that signed it. And while there will always be a degree of voter fraud in our elections when over 100,000,000 people vote it is sadly inevitable, by enacting laws/rules/regulations the Republican party was able to keep the voter fraud to a much smaller level than "allegedly" was in 2024
What also changed, Trump and the Republicans accepted the reality of the situation and embraced early voting in all of its forms in 2024, something they did not do in 2020 which I think also cost them dearly in 2020.

3) Polling continues to underestimate Republican Votes:
-In 2016 poles underestimated Trump Turnout by over 5%
-In 2020 poles underestimated Trump Turnout by over 4%
-In 2024 polls underestimate Trump Turnout by close to 2%
Are they getting better? Yes
Why do they always underestimate Republican Turnout? Hard to say. On theory is that Republicans are 17% less willing to talk to someone over their phone about how they plan to vote. Another theory is that some pollsters have an agenda and do this on purpose to pick sides and discourage Republicans regarding their candidates and their chances in the elections.
What is the right answer, I will leave that for debate.

4) Running on a platform of demagoguery and hatred that vilifies Americans and American ideals is not an effective campaign strategy.

5) Media Bias is Undeniable
-Per the Washington Examiner, Trump coverage by the Legacy Media was 85% negative
-Per the Washington Examiner, Harris coverage by the Legacy Media was 78% positive
-Despite this overwhelming advantage, Trump still won both the popular vote and a minor Electoral College landslide
Why? I think it is because Americans have come to realize that there are no true "news" sources left in America, only bias television shows designed to both pander to their base for ratings and to PUSH AN AGENDA. American's no longer trust news outlets, and, even worse, news outlets no longer care about gaining the trust of the American people
The fourth estate is dead. This is very worrisome because the nation is far healthier when there is a 4th estate who morally works for the people to keep the government from being dishonest to its voters they represent. Edward Murrow and Walter Conkrite would be disgusted by this development
How did this happen? Is it the 24-hour news cycle, the number of news networks, the need for pandering for ratings, how reporters are educated, the peer pressure in the newsroom, the ideology of those that run the news outlets pushing the narrative?
I'd go with all the above, but what is true is there is no "mainstream media" left in America, only the corrupt skeletons of former giants long extinct in our modern world.
Can we get it back, not sure. It will need to be a generational swing back to their roots. Do they have it in them?

Donald Trump, not the hero we wanted, but the hero we needed.

I'll end my thoughts on this election with my favorite observation about the media today, from MSNBC Morning Joe, when one of the panelists made the astute observation that, "Clearly Donald Trump understands Americans better than the media does."

 

[gator1776]

Interested in y'alls observations.

 

[bradleygator]

I agree that it looks like Biden’s totals in 2020 must have been fraudulent. I think Covid and all the mail in voting provided the opportunity in 2020 which wasn’t present this year. Agree that the Rs seem to have gotten smarter about monitoring.

I thought it was interesting at one point how Wisky, Michigan and PA at one point late on Tuesday all showed Trump with solid leads and the last votes to be counted were uncounted batches from Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia. Like those were the only counties outstanding and the only things potentially standing in the way of a Trump landslide. And the reporting on CNN and from Dems on Twitter was: oh be prepared that it might take all tomorrow to count those votes.

I wonder if Dems had ballot dumps ready to go for each, but ultimately made the decision that would be too obvious for all three major metro areas to flip all three states.

Also, as far as vote rigging in 2020, at one point John King, who is stupendous at his job, showed how Kamala had literally only improved on Biden’s count in like three counties nationally. Even Tapper was like “oh my god.” If there were 20 million fraudulent votes floating around, that would help explain that.

 

[bradleygator]

Here’s the tapper clip.

 

[gator1776]

I agree that it looks like Biden’s totals in 2020 must have been fraudulent. I think Covid and all the mail in voting provided the opportunity in 2020 which wasn’t present this year. Agree that the Rs seem to have gotten smarter about monitoring.

I thought it was interesting at one point how Wisky, Michigan and PA at one point late on Tuesday all showed Trump with solid leads and the last votes to be counted were uncounted batches from Milwaukee, Detroit and Philadelphia. Like those were the only counties outstanding and the only things potentially standing in the way of a Trump landslide. And the reporting on CNN and from Dems on Twitter was: oh be prepared that it might take all tomorrow to count those votes.

I wonder if Dems had ballot dumps ready to go for each, but ultimately made the decision that would be too obvious for all three major metro areas to flip all three states.

Also, as far as vote rigging in 2020, at one point John King, who is stupendous at his job, showed how Kamala had literally only improved on Biden’s count in like three counties nationally. Even Tapper was like “oh my god.” If there were 20 million fraudulent votes floating around, that would help explain that.

Yeah, made that observation last night and again today. Ultimately it was to big to rig. The numbers would not have added up with Trumps lead and the Republicans had to many observers this time. I think it would have been to obvious. This is not to say the media was complicit in the ballot box stuffing so much as they were complicit in ignoring it or underselling it, unless it would have been too obvious.

 

[learnron]

I'll go first with my reflections and thoughts from today.

1) Numbers Tell a Story:
-Biden received 81,283,501 votes in 2020, the most votes EVER in a presidential election. A full 11.5 million more votes than the second highest total ever for a democrat, Obama in 2008 with 69.498,516 million votes. In 2012 Obama received 65,915,795 million votes. In 2016 Hillary received 65,853,514 million votes.
-Net increase on average of over 13 million votes over the prior 3 elections for democrats.
-Trump received 74,223,975 million votes in 2020
-Total votes cast in 2020 155,507,475 million vote, a full 26,669,917 more votes than in 2016, an increase of 17.2%
-Then, magically, in 2024 the current overall vote total for president stands at 139,685,213, a decrease of 15,822,262 (11.3%)
-Kamala received 67,462,374 million votes, a remarkable 13,821, 127 million fewer votes than Biden in 2020. That is an unprecedented 21% decrease in votes for one party in 4 years. That percentage drop is over 12% bigger drop than any such decline for either party in the 250 years of presidential elections.

WHERE DID ALL THOSE VOTES GO? DID 15,822,262 MILLION AMERICANS, AND IN PARTICULAR 13,821,127 MILLION DEMOCRATS SUDDENLY DECIDE NOT TO VOTE?
THAT IS A STATISTICAL OUTLYER THAT IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE........................UNLESS THERE WAS BALLOT BOX STUFFING OF UNPRECIDENTED LEVELS IN 2020.

What am I saying? I'm saying that this is proof undeniable that there was cheating by the democrat party in 2020.
I was never one to blame 2020 on voter fraud (cheating). I have always accepted there is some cheating in our elections (see Chicago in 1960 for example), but until 2020 I never viewed it as rampant. I struggled with what happened in 2020 because I didn't want to accept that cheating to that degree could really happen in America, and I did not want to be a poor sport. So, I accepted it and didn't make as big a deal about it as some, like @NavigatorII

So, let's be objective about this:
The environment in 2020 was ripe for voter fraud
Covid led to unprecedented changes in the way we voted in a matter of months
There was not adequate time to ensure measures to prevent cheating
States that had never allowed mail in voting on a large scale suddenly allowed mail in voting for their entire state. They mailed ballots out and required no proof that the name on the ballot was the one that actually voted
Donald Trump and the irrational hatred of Donald Trump provided the justification to do the most Unamerican thing imaginable, cheating to steal the presidency on a massive level. To many on the left, Trump was the evil that justified an equally great evil, stealing an election
Opportunity, motive, motus operandi
So, I have gone from being suspicious to be a FIRM BELIVER THAT CERTAIN DEMOCRATS STOLE THE 2020 ELECTIONS FROM DONALD TRUMP AND AMERICAN AND I BELIEVE THE ABOVE MATH IS INDISPUTIBLE PROOF.

2) What changed from 2020 to 2024? Laws. The Republican party had 4 years to institute rules and regulations about mail in voting that required proof that the vote was actually legally filled out by the voter that signed it. And while there will always be a degree of voter fraud in our elections when over 100,000,000 people vote it is sadly inevitable, by enacting laws/rules/regulations the Republican party was able to keep the voter fraud to a much smaller level than "allegedly" was in 2024
What also changed, Trump and the Republicans accepted the reality of the situation and embraced early voting in all of its forms in 2024, something they did not do in 2020 which I think also cost them dearly in 2020.

3) Polling continues to underestimate Republican Votes:
-In 2016 poles underestimated Trump Turnout by over 5%
-In 2020 poles underestimated Trump Turnout by over 4%
-In 2024 polls underestimate Trump Turnout by close to 2%
Are they getting better? Yes
Why do they always underestimate Republican Turnout? Hard to say. On theory is that Republicans are 17% less willing to talk to someone over their phone about how they plan to vote. Another theory is that some pollsters have an agenda and do this on purpose to pick sides and discourage Republicans regarding their candidates and their chances in the elections.
What is the right answer, I will leave that for debate.

4) Running on a platform of demagoguery and hatred that vilifies Americans and American ideals is not an effective campaign strategy.

5) Media Bias is Undeniable
-Per the Washington Examiner, Trump coverage by the Legacy Media was 85% negative
-Per the Washington Examiner, Harris coverage by the Legacy Media was 78% positive
-Despite this overwhelming advantage, Trump still won both the popular vote and a minor Electoral College landslide
Why? I think it is because Americans have come to realize that there are no true "news" sources left in America, only bias television shows designed to both pander to their base for ratings and to PUSH AN AGENDA. American's no longer trust news outlets, and, even worse, news outlets no longer care about gaining the trust of the American people
The fourth estate is dead. This is very worrisome because the nation is far healthier when there is a 4th estate who morally works for the people to keep the government from being dishonest to its voters they represent. Edward Murrow and Walter Conkrite would be disgusted by this development
How did this happen? Is it the 24-hour news cycle, the number of news networks, the need for pandering for ratings, how reporters are educated, the peer pressure in the newsroom, the ideology of those that run the news outlets pushing the narrative?
I'd go with all the above, but what is true is there is no "mainstream media" left in America, only the corrupt skeletons of former giants long extinct in our modern world.
Can we get it back, not sure. It will need to be a generational swing back to their roots. Do they have it in them?

Donald Trump, not the hero we wanted, but the hero we needed.

I'll end my thoughts on this election with my favorite observation about the media today, from MSNBC Morning Joe, when one of the panelists made the astute observation that, "Clearly Donald Trump understands Americans better than the media does."

So true. Great post