Putin is a very sophisticated and savvy player.
I would have thought that he would have said, "yes, give me the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and no NATO" and then let's figure out what a longer term peace looks like.
Biden made no progress here, so this is not a critique of Trump (my comments) - at all, but this will be difficult indeed. I do think that for Trump the one (significant) win is getting the EU to finally pay their fair share. If we get that plus mineral rights, that is far ahead of where we were at.
_______________
Leaders | Russia and America talk
Photograph: Getty Images/AP/The Economist
Mar 19th 2025
SaveShare
Give
THEY TALKED by phone for over two hours, but Vladimir Putin left Donald Trump with almost nothing to show for it—a slap in the face that only a man possessed of unbounded chutzpah could pretend was a win. A week earlier, negotiators for America and Ukraine had agreed on a 30-day ceasefire in a conflict that has lasted for over three years. Mr Trump had said that if Russia did not sign up he might hit it with tough new sanctions. In the event, he rolled over. Even Boris Johnson, a former British prime minister who admires Mr Trump, declared that Putin is “laughing at us”.
Instead of an unconditional ceasefire, Mr Putin proposed only that both sides stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure, an area where Ukraine has been landing some weighty blows on the invader. For anything further to happen, says the Russian government, Ukraine must accept a freeze on foreign military aid and an end to conscription and training, although Russia proposes no such restrictions on itself. Mr Putin also wants a solution to the “root causes” of the conflict, by which he really means an end to the existence of Ukraine as an independent country. Those are not the words of a man who is eager to compromise.
Optimists can extract a few crumbs of comfort. A pause on attacks on infrastructure is a small advance, and it could conceivably be followed by others, as negotiations are to continue. And Mr Trump has, in public at least, refrained from endorsing Mr Putin’s harsher demands for Ukraine. The country remains in the same sticky but far from calamitous position that it was before Mr Trump’s drive for a ceasefire began three weeks ago.
The real danger lies ahead. Mr Putin wants the American president to believe that, as statesmen, they have bigger fish to fry than squabbling over a forlorn place like Ukraine. So long as it does not get in the way, Russia and America can accomplish almost anything together. Russia could help resolve crises in the Middle East and beyond, perhaps leaning on its friend Iran to forgo the bomb. American investment in Russian businesses, such as exploring for gas in the Arctic, could steam ahead. Sanctions would be lifted and Russia could rejoin the G7. Imagine if Russia were detached from its “no-limits partnership” with China. “World war three”, an abiding worry of Mr Trump’s, would have been averted.
All this is a fantasy designed to tempt Mr Trump into giving Mr Putin what he wants in Ukraine in return for empty promises. The reality is that Russia now depends more on China than it ever will on America, and will not be separated from it. Russia’s leverage over Iran is limited. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s and subject to a despot’s whims, so business opportunities are slim.
On the contrary, if in pursuit of this chimera Mr Trump eases the pressure the West has imposed on Russia, America will lose. For a start, it will drive a further wedge between America and Europe, which will not follow Mr Trump. Ukraine will be destabilised, posing risks to all of Europe. The alliances and values that America has championed for decades will be degraded, and America itself will be weaker as a result. Mr Trump may care little about those things, but he will surely be troubled by the risk of looking weak, as his predecessor Joe Biden did when the Taliban overran Afghanistan.
The Putin-Trump call came as an American-brokered ceasefire in Gaza was breaking down amid Israeli attacks (see Middle East & Africa section). Mr Trump’s personal style of diplomacy can break logjams, but peacemaking seems too gruelling and detailed for him to see through. The White House readout from the call with Russia talked of “enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved”. It is clear what Mr Putin wants. It is odd that Mr Trump seems so ready to give it to him
I would have thought that he would have said, "yes, give me the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine and no NATO" and then let's figure out what a longer term peace looks like.
Biden made no progress here, so this is not a critique of Trump (my comments) - at all, but this will be difficult indeed. I do think that for Trump the one (significant) win is getting the EU to finally pay their fair share. If we get that plus mineral rights, that is far ahead of where we were at.
_______________
Leaders | Russia and America talk
The trap Vladimir Putin set for Donald Trump
The Russian president wants to suggest that Ukraine is just a detail in a wider relationship
Mar 19th 2025
SaveShare
Give
THEY TALKED by phone for over two hours, but Vladimir Putin left Donald Trump with almost nothing to show for it—a slap in the face that only a man possessed of unbounded chutzpah could pretend was a win. A week earlier, negotiators for America and Ukraine had agreed on a 30-day ceasefire in a conflict that has lasted for over three years. Mr Trump had said that if Russia did not sign up he might hit it with tough new sanctions. In the event, he rolled over. Even Boris Johnson, a former British prime minister who admires Mr Trump, declared that Putin is “laughing at us”.
Instead of an unconditional ceasefire, Mr Putin proposed only that both sides stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure, an area where Ukraine has been landing some weighty blows on the invader. For anything further to happen, says the Russian government, Ukraine must accept a freeze on foreign military aid and an end to conscription and training, although Russia proposes no such restrictions on itself. Mr Putin also wants a solution to the “root causes” of the conflict, by which he really means an end to the existence of Ukraine as an independent country. Those are not the words of a man who is eager to compromise.
Optimists can extract a few crumbs of comfort. A pause on attacks on infrastructure is a small advance, and it could conceivably be followed by others, as negotiations are to continue. And Mr Trump has, in public at least, refrained from endorsing Mr Putin’s harsher demands for Ukraine. The country remains in the same sticky but far from calamitous position that it was before Mr Trump’s drive for a ceasefire began three weeks ago.
The real danger lies ahead. Mr Putin wants the American president to believe that, as statesmen, they have bigger fish to fry than squabbling over a forlorn place like Ukraine. So long as it does not get in the way, Russia and America can accomplish almost anything together. Russia could help resolve crises in the Middle East and beyond, perhaps leaning on its friend Iran to forgo the bomb. American investment in Russian businesses, such as exploring for gas in the Arctic, could steam ahead. Sanctions would be lifted and Russia could rejoin the G7. Imagine if Russia were detached from its “no-limits partnership” with China. “World war three”, an abiding worry of Mr Trump’s, would have been averted.
All this is a fantasy designed to tempt Mr Trump into giving Mr Putin what he wants in Ukraine in return for empty promises. The reality is that Russia now depends more on China than it ever will on America, and will not be separated from it. Russia’s leverage over Iran is limited. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s and subject to a despot’s whims, so business opportunities are slim.
On the contrary, if in pursuit of this chimera Mr Trump eases the pressure the West has imposed on Russia, America will lose. For a start, it will drive a further wedge between America and Europe, which will not follow Mr Trump. Ukraine will be destabilised, posing risks to all of Europe. The alliances and values that America has championed for decades will be degraded, and America itself will be weaker as a result. Mr Trump may care little about those things, but he will surely be troubled by the risk of looking weak, as his predecessor Joe Biden did when the Taliban overran Afghanistan.
The Putin-Trump call came as an American-brokered ceasefire in Gaza was breaking down amid Israeli attacks (see Middle East & Africa section). Mr Trump’s personal style of diplomacy can break logjams, but peacemaking seems too gruelling and detailed for him to see through. The White House readout from the call with Russia talked of “enormous economic deals and geopolitical stability when peace has been achieved”. It is clear what Mr Putin wants. It is odd that Mr Trump seems so ready to give it to him
