I know this is long, so save the “TLDR” responses. LOL I’m sitting up at the hospital unable to sleep, so I thought I’d write about my thinking about transition classes from almost 25 years of following recruiting pretty closely and being active on these Gator boards for that same amount of time. I think it also explains why some people (myself included) were a little frustrated by what we saw today. I’d love some interaction on this as I’m just throwing out some thoughts, even if they are long thoughts.
Transition classes are hard. Even harder in 2021. It’s so hard for new staffs to get on players and get them to commit in 1 month. Usually a transition class is made up of previous staff’s commits (group A) and the ones already leaning to the school (group B). If you supplement that with a few guys that have previous relationships with staff (group C), you are fortunate. It is really hard to pull guys out of thin air, the leftovers with baggage or at least no prior relationship (group D).
The fact that recent years has seen the majority of top players sign on ESD and not NSD has made transition classes even harder. New coaches have a week or 2 before ESD. That’s hard. Your talent pool after ESD is severely diminished. It is very hard to build a class from scratch after ESD.
I understand that Napier has a plan. But the situation is pretty rough. Assuming he wants to sign some players in this class (and of course he does, if even not a full class), you have diminishing returns as you move from group A down to group D. Meaning: your best bet is with group A, not group D. This is why I was alarmed with the approach to ditch virtually all of group A for this transition class. I’m gonna trust Napier has a plan - but as I said, returns are diminished as you move from group A to D.
Now, to be fair, Mullen really put us behind the 8-ball in group A. It was a small group, and it was lacking in several positions. It’s strengths were at QB, WR, and DL. The weaknesses were at OL, IMO. The best bet at success in this transition class was to hold those guys, maybe cutting a few (I would’ve guessed at OL). In a transition class, you aren’t expecting a top 10 class, but a school like UF should be high teens even in transition years. The idea isn’t that this class sets the world on fire, but that you ”hold serve” so to speak. You can’t let roster holes develop. You can’t let your class balances get too out of whack. You try and upgrade where you can and fill holes. Don’t let everyone pass you up by too much, and make it up the next year (the fabled “bump class”).
In this transition class, our pool of group A is mediocre (thanks Mullen), and what was there is now gone. Group B is likely shrinking too. Having to depend on groups C and D is a fool’s errand. This is why people were frustrated today. It isn’t that any of those players individually are irreplaceable, it is that you can’t find comparable players in group B or C, and D is a crap shoot. It’s all about being able to replace the guys you lose with comparable replacements. I’m not sure those exist within our realm of possibility.
So, in the end, this transition class will be really really rough. It seems many on this site are cool with that, because they’re looking to the future. I think the future is bright too, somI can see why people think that way. BUT. But I come back to my stated desire for a transition class: to hold serve. Not excel. Not be ranked high. Just don’t fall too far behind. Meet a few needs, get some talent in the building, and don’t lose an entire class. I think we might be closer to that losing an entire class rather than holding serve. BUT. But there is still some time. I’m willing to see what happens. But people need to temper their expectations. No matter how good the recruiters we bring in, it is hard to get a class, even a mediocre one, when you have very few in group A, few in group B, and are trying to cobble it together from groups C and D.
Remember, this has no bearing on future classes. I think Napier is gonna have us in great position with future classes. No worries at all. But this class is gonna be bad, folks. Some are ready for that, some are not. Some were more hopeful than for that to be true. Just be prepared. There is not enough time and there are not enough prospects at this point. Napier seems ok with that - and I guess I need to be ok with it as well.
So, I’ve come full circle on this transition class. It’s gonna be tough, this will be a poorly ranked class barring some miracle, maybe the worst in UF history. Lets just hope enough guys can be signed and the transfer portal can be worked just right so as to mitigate not holding serve. The good news is that Napier seems to be the right guy to set things up for success moving forward. We can just focus on that and look forward to a good “bump class.”
Transition classes are hard. Even harder in 2021. It’s so hard for new staffs to get on players and get them to commit in 1 month. Usually a transition class is made up of previous staff’s commits (group A) and the ones already leaning to the school (group B). If you supplement that with a few guys that have previous relationships with staff (group C), you are fortunate. It is really hard to pull guys out of thin air, the leftovers with baggage or at least no prior relationship (group D).
The fact that recent years has seen the majority of top players sign on ESD and not NSD has made transition classes even harder. New coaches have a week or 2 before ESD. That’s hard. Your talent pool after ESD is severely diminished. It is very hard to build a class from scratch after ESD.
I understand that Napier has a plan. But the situation is pretty rough. Assuming he wants to sign some players in this class (and of course he does, if even not a full class), you have diminishing returns as you move from group A down to group D. Meaning: your best bet is with group A, not group D. This is why I was alarmed with the approach to ditch virtually all of group A for this transition class. I’m gonna trust Napier has a plan - but as I said, returns are diminished as you move from group A to D.
Now, to be fair, Mullen really put us behind the 8-ball in group A. It was a small group, and it was lacking in several positions. It’s strengths were at QB, WR, and DL. The weaknesses were at OL, IMO. The best bet at success in this transition class was to hold those guys, maybe cutting a few (I would’ve guessed at OL). In a transition class, you aren’t expecting a top 10 class, but a school like UF should be high teens even in transition years. The idea isn’t that this class sets the world on fire, but that you ”hold serve” so to speak. You can’t let roster holes develop. You can’t let your class balances get too out of whack. You try and upgrade where you can and fill holes. Don’t let everyone pass you up by too much, and make it up the next year (the fabled “bump class”).
In this transition class, our pool of group A is mediocre (thanks Mullen), and what was there is now gone. Group B is likely shrinking too. Having to depend on groups C and D is a fool’s errand. This is why people were frustrated today. It isn’t that any of those players individually are irreplaceable, it is that you can’t find comparable players in group B or C, and D is a crap shoot. It’s all about being able to replace the guys you lose with comparable replacements. I’m not sure those exist within our realm of possibility.
So, in the end, this transition class will be really really rough. It seems many on this site are cool with that, because they’re looking to the future. I think the future is bright too, somI can see why people think that way. BUT. But I come back to my stated desire for a transition class: to hold serve. Not excel. Not be ranked high. Just don’t fall too far behind. Meet a few needs, get some talent in the building, and don’t lose an entire class. I think we might be closer to that losing an entire class rather than holding serve. BUT. But there is still some time. I’m willing to see what happens. But people need to temper their expectations. No matter how good the recruiters we bring in, it is hard to get a class, even a mediocre one, when you have very few in group A, few in group B, and are trying to cobble it together from groups C and D.
Remember, this has no bearing on future classes. I think Napier is gonna have us in great position with future classes. No worries at all. But this class is gonna be bad, folks. Some are ready for that, some are not. Some were more hopeful than for that to be true. Just be prepared. There is not enough time and there are not enough prospects at this point. Napier seems ok with that - and I guess I need to be ok with it as well.
So, I’ve come full circle on this transition class. It’s gonna be tough, this will be a poorly ranked class barring some miracle, maybe the worst in UF history. Lets just hope enough guys can be signed and the transfer portal can be worked just right so as to mitigate not holding serve. The good news is that Napier seems to be the right guy to set things up for success moving forward. We can just focus on that and look forward to a good “bump class.”
