Thoughts of the Day: December 3, 2021
A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:
SUNDAY, A NEW ERA BEGINS FOR FLORIDA FOOTBALL
Sunday afternoon at a press conference at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Billy Napier will be formally introduced as the head football coach at the University of Florida. He’s 42 years old, 39-12 as a head coach and could be arriving in Gainesville on the heels of a Sun Belt Conference championship.
By all accounts, Napier is a Nick Saban clone in the way he organizes things and goes about his daily business. It would be surprising if he arrives in Gainesville without every assistant coaching position already filled and without a plan to immediately recruit every player on the UF roster including the four who have entered their names in the transfer portal – Dante Zanders, Gerald Mincey, Khris Bogle and Lloyd Summerall III. He’s not going to run players off necessarily, but if he doesn’t get the right answers when he asks questions or sees any doubt about being a Gator, he won’t stop the screen door from hitting them backside on the way out.
Billy Napier is Florida’s head coach because he wants to be a Gator, which is why he’s turned down Mississippi State, Auburn, South Carolina and Tennessee in the past. He is at a place where he (a) knows he can win and (b) has assurances that he will have every resource available to win. That means resources for recruiting that have been missing for quite some time are being made available.
Napier isn’t a rock star hire like Lincoln Riley at Southern Cal and he’s certainly not the type to abandon his players with a championship on the line a la Brian Kelly. Napier made it abundantly clear before he was hired by Scott Stricklin that his players come first and that means finishing what was started at Louisiana this season. He will arrive in Gainesville fully focused and ready to begin piecing the Florida football program back together again.
I’ve talked to quite a few people about Napier in the last few days and the near unanimous conclusion is that Florida has the right coach at the right time. I was told to look carefully at the two coaches who have influenced him the most – Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban.
“Nick’s been at Alabama 15 years and Dabo’s been at Clemson 14,” one coach told me. “Billy is taking the Florida job because he plans to be there for the long term. It’s not going to be four years and out the door, that’s for damn sure.”
THE SEC SOOTHSAYER
No. 3 Alabama (11-1, 7-1 SEC) vs. No. 1 Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC): What we’ve seen on the field tells us the SEC Championship Game will be all Georgia. The Bulldogs lead the nation in defense (229.7 yards per game), scoring defense (6.9 points per game) and they’re third against the run (78.92 yards per game). A week ago Alabama’s offensive line did a dandy impersonation of a sieve when they allowed Bryce Young to get sacked seven times. That same OL is back this week and Bama may be without running back Brian Robinson (hamstring; 1,016 rushing yards and 14 TDs; 29 receptions for 2 TDs). Everything says Georgia wins and covers the 6.5-point spread. There’s just one teensy little problem. Nick Saban still coaches Alabama and he’s only lost one game since 2008 when he was the underdog. He still has Young throwing the ball (3,901 yards, 40 TDPs, just 4 picks), Jameson Williams catching it (61-1,261 yards, 13 TDs) and Will Anderson coming off the edge (14.5 sacks to lead the nation). Georgia fans are ready to go on a three-day bender if the Bulldogs pull this one off. Alabama fans think Georgia fans are tacky because they don’t know what it’s like to say been there, done that. Big game. Hard to go against Nick. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 24, Georgia 20
CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES IN THE MINOR LEAGUES Friday night
Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Texas-San Antonio (11-1): UTSA saw its dream of a perfect season end last week with North Texas went beast mode between the trenches and ran for 340 yards. The good news this week in the Conference USA Championship Game is that Western Kentucky doesn’t run much (102.42 per game) but flings it all over the yard behind Bailey Zappe (4,968 passing yards, 52 touchdowns), the best quarterback you’ve never heard of. WKU is a 3.5-point favorite but the game’s in the Alamodome. The Sayer says sooth: UTSA 38, Western Kentucky 35
No. 10 Oregon (10-2) vs. No. 17 Utah (9-3): Two weeks ago Utah crushed the Ducks, 38-7, in Salt Lake. This is on a neutral field so it should be closer, but the Ducks couldn’t run the ball against Utah two weeks ago and they’ll have problems again, which means the game will be in the hands of Anthony Brown. Not a good sign for Oregon. Utah is favored by 2.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Utah 28, Oregon 14
Saturday’s games
No. 9 Baylor (10-2) vs. No. 5 Oklahoma State (11-1): Oklahoma State beat Baylor by 10 in Stillwater. This is at a neutral site and the Cowboys are favored by 5.5 points. The Bears couldn’t run the football against Okie State last time and they are going to struggle to run it Saturday in the Big 12 Championship Game. The Sayer says sooth: Oklahoma State 21, Baylor 17
Kent State (7-5) vs. Northern Illinois (8-4): Kent State coach Sean Lewis needs to win this game and get a job somewhere else because the Flashes open their 2022 season with Washington, Oklahoma and Georgia all on the road for paychecks. Lewis needs QB Dustin Crum to come up big against a Northern Illinois secondary that has given up 21 TDPs and picked off opposing QBs just once. Kent State is favored by 3.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Kent State 33, Northern Illinois 20
Utah State (9-3) vs. No. 19 San Diego State (11-1): This is Blake Anderson’s high powered Utah State offense against San Diego State’s very stingy defense. Logan Bonner has thrown for 32 touchdowns but San Diego State’s secondary has 15 picks and the pass rush has gotten to the QB 36 times. San Diego State is favored to win by 6.0 points. The Sayer says sooth: Utah State 24, San Diego State 17
Appalachian State (10-2) vs. Louisiana (11-1): This is Billy Napier’s swan song against a team he’s already beaten 41-13 this season. The Sun Belt Championship Game is in Lafayette where the Ragin Cajuns are 14-2 in the last three years. When they played back in October, the Cajuns ran for 246 yards, threw for 209 and the defense forced four turnovers. Appalachian State hasn’t lost since that game and for some odd reason is favored by 3.0 points. Not on this day. Not in this game. The Sayer says sooth: Louisiana 35, Appalachian State 24
No. 21 Houston (11-1) vs. No. 4 Cincinnati (12-0): The pressure is all on Cincinnati. Win and the Bearcats are shoo-ins to become the first Group of Five team to make the College Football Playoff. Lose and they get a New Year’s Six bowl. They played in one of those last year. Houston has won 11 straight since losing to Texas Tech in game one. Houston has the best player you’ve never heard of in Marcus Jones, who plays both sides of the football and is the best returner in the nation. Jones has caught 10 passes for 109 yards and a TD, returned two punts for TDs and a 14.4 average, and has two kickoff returns for TDs and a 38-yard average. Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder (27 TDPs, 6 rushing TDs) is the best QB the Cougars will face and that defense is nasty. Cincy is favored by 10.5 points. Upset special? The Sayer says sooth: Cincinnati 27, Houston 24
No. 2 Michigan (11-1) vs. No. 13 Iowa (10-2): Now that Jim Harbaugh has finally beaten Ohio State, wouldn’t it be just like him to lay an egg in the game that can get him to the College Football Playoff? Iowa has forced 28 turnovers this year. The Hawkeyes allow only 2.97 yards per carry and they’ve picked off a nation-leading 22 passes. Can Michigan just line up and knock Iowa off the ball. If the Wolverines can, they win by more than the 11.5 points they’re favored by. If they can’t Iowa could score the upset. The Sayer says sooth: Michigan 17, Iowa 10
No. 15 Pittsburgh (10-2) vs. No. 16 Wake Forest (10-2): The over/under on this one is 71 so don’t expect a whole lot of defense to be played. Pitt’s Kenny Pickett has thrown for 40 touchdowns and run for four. Wake Forest Gump’s Sam Hartman has thrown for 34 and run for 10. Pitt is a 3-point favorite in a game that is probably decided by whoever gets the ball last. Wake’s Nick Sciba is 20-22 on field goals this year. If it comes down to a field goal, he isn’t going to miss. The Sayer says sooth: Wake Forest Gump 44, Pittsburgh 41
MOVING AND GROOVING IN THE COACHING WORLD
Mickey Joseph, the wide receivers coach and ace recruiter who was offered a place on Brian Kelly’s new LSU staff, is the latest to just say no to the former Notre Dame coach. Apparently he prefers the uncertainty of working for Scott Frost at Nebraska to working for Kelly, who left Notre Dame with a College Football Playoff berth still in question. Kelly’s Notre Dame defensive line coach (Mike Elston) and running backs coach (Lance Taylor) apparently have elected to remain at Notre Dame instead of joining Kelly.
With Mike Bobo out as the offensive coordinator at Auburn, HBC Bryan Harsin is expected to hire Arizona State offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Zak Hill. Hill was the play caller for Harsin three seasons at Boise State before taking the Arizona State position in 2020.
Kentucky co-defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall is expected to be named the head coach at Troy today. Sumrall spent three seasons (2015-17) at Troy as the assistant head coach, linebackers and special teams coordinator for Neal Brown.
Steve Addazio is out of a job at Colorado State. It wasn’t just the winning and losing that did him in (he was 4-12 with nine straight losses at the end of this season), but things like embarrassing the university with two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties that got him ejected in the second quarter of Colorado State’s season-ending loss to Nevada. Addazio is a fine offensive line coach. He will be gainfully employed somewhere if he goes back to coaching offensive linemen.
Oregon offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead, who was the head coach at Mississippi State in 2018-19, is expected to be named the head coach at Akron.
Bronco Mendenhall has resigned unexpectedly at Virginia after six seasons and a 36-38 record that including bowl eligibility in each of the last five seasons. Mendenhall was somewhat of a surprise hire when he left BYU to head east in 2016. He was in his comfort zone at BYU where he had led the Cougars to 11 consecutive bowl seasons and had a four-year run from 2006-09 that saw 43 wins. Mendenhall says he plans to step away from coaching to figure out his priorities moving forward with the next phase of his life.
LEAVING ON A JET PLANE … OR MAYBE A TOYOTA CAMRY Here are six interesting names in the transfer portal:
Adrian Martinez, QB, Nebraska: Martinez threw for 8,495 yards and 45 touchdowns and ran for 2,288 and 30 more TDs playing for Scott Frost. He’s been a turnover machine. He’s a tremendous talent but can anyone coach the turnovers out of him? Tayvion Robinson, WR, Virginia Tech: He started 30 games, catching 113 passes for 1,555 yards and nine touchdowns. A former 4-star recruit, he has two seasons of eligibility remaining.
Ray Thornton III, S, Clemson: He’s a very talented kid who won’t see the field much in 2022 when Clemson returns 10 from the rotation in the secondary.
Layne Hatcher, QB, Arkansas State: He has two years of eligibility remaining. At Arkansas State he’s thrown for 7,427 yards and 65 touchdowns.
Aaron Brule, LB, Mississippi State: He has 151 tackles and eight sacks to go with one year of eligibility.
Enzo Jennings, S, Penn State: He was a 4-star recruit out of high school who has four years of eligibility.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: One day after the conference commissioners met in Texas to discuss expanding the College Football Playoff, it is abundantly clear that SEC commissioner Greg Sankey is indeed the smartest guy in the room. Sankey knows perfectly well that the “alliance” of the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 has absolutely zero power. The threat of an 8-team playoff is bogus because ESPN wouldn’t have to pay a dime more than they do with a 4-team playoff. It’s going to be a 12-team tournament that very closely resembles the proposal Sankey put forward with the working group last summer because that’s the one that will make the most money. Sankey and the SEC will welcome but don’t need the extra cash. Everybody else does.
