Strictly an objective look comparing the two rosters and the matchups within them. I looked over both rosters and read up on each of the 44 starters and some key backups.
1. UF OL vs Miami DL - Advantage Miami. Bain is a beast. He is an elite level pass rusher and will be better as a SO. Two really experienced transfers anchor the interior of the Hurricane defense including 2x All Big 10 HM Simeon Barrow and 3 year NCST starter CJ Clark. Canes get Mesidor back from injury who had an All ACC HM season in 2022. The OL for the Gators has a lot of question marks after a subpar season last year, but does have a lot more guys who were in the system last year so there is some reason for hope. However, at this time, it appears to be a big advantage for Miami. The Swamp should help slow down that pass rush.
2. UF DL vs Miami OL - Advantage Miami. UF will play some of the best OL's in the country this year, and Miami is right up near the top. The least experienced/decorated member is LG Matt McCoy, and he started all 13 games for the Canes last season. LT Jalen Rivers was an All ACC 2nd teamer. Zach Carpenter has 25 career starts and is a 2x 3rd team All B1G performer. Anez Cooper was an HM All ACC player and has 17 career starts. RT Francis Mauigoa was a consensus FRAA and 3rd Team All ACC player in his first year at Miami. UF's DL is deeper and more talented than last years, however, we just don't know what any of them can really do. Cam Jackson and Caleb Banks were just ok. Slackman is coming in with a lot of hype, but this is a huge step up in competition for him. When Desmond Watson wants to stop the run in the middle, the run is stopped. If he is in shape to the point he can stay on the field for longer periods of time, he will shut down the inside run game almost single handidly. The question with him is if he can do that. There is a whole LOT of pass rush potential with Searcy, Boone, Sapp, and Gumbs coming off the edge. All that said, like with the OL, we just have a lot more answers on Miamis unit vs UFs.
3. QB's - Even. Mertz is the definition of steady and he did an excellent job of taking care of the football last year, even in spite of the struggles with pass pro. He isn't spectacular and he isn't going to win you a lot of games with his arm, but he isn't going to lose you any either. Ward is kind of the polar opposite. He has the ability to light up just about any defense if he gets time. He can make big throws and loves to put the ball down the field. He will be playing behind the best OL he's had and with, by far, the best collection of weapons he's had at his disposal. Which version of Ward we see Saturday will determine who wins this matchup, but for now we have a push.
4. RB's - Even. Damien Martinez is the most accomplished back in this, however, he has also benefitted from being the only guy that has been a true feature back. He is big and punishing. I put this as a push because I think if Montrell Johnson is healthy and is given that feature back role, he can be just as effective. The backups are similar with Fletcher and Webb. Had Etienne stayed at UF, this would be a clear advantage for the Gators.
5. WRs - Advantage Miami. Xavier Restrepo is coming off one of the best seasons for any Hurricane receiver. He is explosive with the ball. Jacolby George enjoyed a 3rd Team All ACC performance with over 800 yards last year. Transfer Samuel Brown caught 64 balls for over 800 yards at Houston last season. Isaiah Horton appears to be #4, but two talented FR in Ny Carr and Josiah Trader should see time. UF is anchored by Eugene Wilson who is elite with the ball in his hands and capable of changing a game every time he touches the ball. Elijah Badger transferred in from ASU after back to back seasons of 70 and 65 catches. Very reliable guy who excelled on 3rd down for the Sun Devils. Should help out Mertz a lot in those situations as he has a nose for that first down line. Chimere Dike transferred in from Wisconsin. He was an HM All Big 10 guy in 2022, but only caught 19 balls and 1 TD in 11 starts last year. Solid addition to the corps though. Florida may be a little deeper than Miami with Marcus Burke, Khaleil Jackson, and Aidan Mizzell all having either experience and/or a ton of talent. Miami at the top though edges this one out.
6. TE's - Advantage Florida. This is a Gator advantage in every way. Gators are more talented and deeper at the position compared to what the Canes have, and this will be the case for UF for the majority of the schedule if everyone stays healthy.
7. LB - Advantage Miami. This one is pretty close, but Miamis duo of Mauigoa and Bissanthe gives them the edge. Mauigoa is a tackling machine at MLB coming off a season where he racked up 82 tackles, 18 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 2 INT's, and 1 FF. He will need to be accounted for on every down. Bissanthe took over the other LB spot and made 10 starts. In those 10 starts he was a force tackling and rushing the passer. Jaylin Alderman had a breakout season last year for Louisville before transferring into Miami. Raul Aguire is a true SO that is the only other LB listed on their depth chart. He played in 13 games last year, but excelled on special teams. The leader for the Gators is Shemar James, who has shown super star potential in his first two seasons with the Gators. His season was cut short by injury last year, but up to that point, he was stellar. Pup Howard transferred in from South Carolina where he appeared in 11 games with no starts, however, made the most of those limited opportunities. He is fast and loaded with talent. SR Derek Wingo and FR Myles Graham will round out the depth chart. Graham is a 5 star super recruit who could be a super star out of the gates. Again, Miami is just more proven at this spot as well, although it is a very close race.
8. Corner - Advantage Florida. Devin Moore is an excellent cover corner who made a lot of plays with limited opportunities. Jason Marshall is in his contract year and has 1st round NFL kind of talent. He needs to put all of that together this season. Still, he has been steady. Shariff Denson proved to be one of the better DB recruits in the conference last year and has the chance to be a big time breakout player this season. Jakeem Jackson was another super FR last year that showed he could play at a high level. Like Denson, he has the chance to be a breakout kind of guy. Miamis best CB is Daryl Porter Jr who transferred in from WVU and had a good year for the Canes last season. They list true FR OJ Fredrique as the other starting CB. Dont know anything about him. If they have a true FR starting I'm not sure how you can confidently say anything great about the depth, unless this guy is just a hidden gem. Nickle back Demari Brown was a TRFR last season and played well for them there. Gators have a clear advantage here but go against a very good Miami receiving corps. Gators WR's should be able to make a lot of plays vs the Canes corners if Mertz has time.
9. Safety - Advantage Florida. Interesting note. Both starting safeties from Washingtons National Championship Game team will be starting in this game. Asa Turner for Florida and Michael Powell for Miami. Powell was a stud for the Huskies last season on his way to an All P12 year. 92 tackles, 4 TFL, 3 INT, 12 PBU, 2 FF, and 1 FR. Jaden Harris will be the other Cane S after appearing in 11 games in 2023. The backups are complete unknowns. Turner was good for the Huskies as a part time starter last season (6 starts including all 3 post season games). Jordan Castell was a stud as a true FR in 2023. Starting the last 11 games, he led the team in tackles (60) and Solo tackles (30) while adding 1.5 TFL, 1 INT, and 3 PBUs. I think Castell will have a major breakout year this season on his way to being named to some All SEC and possibly All American teams. DJ Douglas and Trikweze James give the Gators valuable experience and depth. Gators with the overall advantage here.
10. Special Teams - Advantage Miami. While I'd say the PK/P positions are pretty much even with both teams having both good kickers and punters, let's be honest, the Florida special teams have been atrocious the past two seasons. We are going to need to see some major improvements before we can give the Gator ST's an advantage over any team on the schedule.
11. Coaching - Even. it is really easy to laugh at Mario Cristobal. He certainly has a lot of glaring weaknesses as the Miami HC so far. It is amazing how he looked pretty good at Oregon and is a goof at Miami. That said, Billy Napier hasn't been any better and has caused a whole lot of head scratching of his own. Both are capable recruiters. Both seem to suffer the same kind of in game coaching deficiencies as it pertains to clock management, personnel, and sideline details.
5 biggest factors in this game for UF in my opinion:
1. Can the defense disrupt Cam Ward? We couldn't get to the passer last year very well and face a very good, if not elite, Miami OL. If Ward is comfortable, he has a whole lot of toys to play with and is capable of putting up big time numbers. If the pass rush gets home, then the Gators could force some key turnovers that they'll absolutely need to win.
2. Can the OL neutralize the Cane front 7? The OL has question marks and the Canes have a very very good front 7 to contend with. Can they open holes and get to those Miami LB's so that Florida can control the game running the ball? If so, then UF has a good chance in this game playing the ball control, ground and pound game. The Canes can score and keeping the ball out of their hands is going to be a big factor. Whether that is via getting turnovers or ball control really doesn't matter. The offense has to have the football a lot in this game to keep Miamis offense off the field.
3. How many points is the Swamp worth? The crowd is going to be electric. The Swamp will be one of the most hostile environments in all of sports as it usually is. However, how many points is that worth in a game like this?
4. What are we going to get from the UF special teams? Special teams can lose you games quick if you don't have them down, and the Gators have had some really big special teams mistakes throughout the last 2 seasons.
5. Can Florida avoid the mental mistakes both in the game and on the sideline? Penalties, personal fouls, questionable coaching calls/decisions at key moments, bad clock management, inability to get the right personnel on and off the field......all of those have either cost us games or nearly cost us games. Cannot have those and expect to win tough rivalry games like this one....see FSU last year. Just cannot have the mental mistakes we see way too often and have success this season.
Here is where you sensitive types call me a Miami plant and get all up in your feelings.
