I've got three kids and a job that depends on the construction industry. Nothing would make me happier than real, sustainable economic improvement. What you read from me is skepticism as to whether that's what we're seeing.
For instance the trade deal. From what I've read, what is being proposed on this "phase one" deal is that we roll back the tariffs we set two years ago and roll back additional levies, essentially in exchange for China agreeing to resume buying the farm exports that it was buying before the tariffs knocked them down 60 percent. Critics of the deal, trade groups not Democrats, say that we are giving up all our leverage, essentially to resume the status quo on farm imports without even asking China to address the other stated aims of the trade war: increased IP protections, increased access to the Chinese market for targeted US industries, etc... And by the way the $5 billion a month in tariffs is being paid entirely by US importers, not the Chinese, so at least the deal would give them some relief. Winning?
To your final point, no, not really. In the normal model, and in form the US consumers do pay it. But often times, producers have to also reduce their margins to mitigate the effects of the tariff.
China is not on a normal model, and has more reasons to eat more of the tariff. China depends on State Owned Enterprises, and heavily subsidized private business. Because of the tariff, China has to put more money into the products, it can not all be placed on the consumer. China can't take the risk.
Prices have not really gone up at a higher rate than they were before. Because of that, we know China is eating a lot of it.
China is in bad shape, actually. They peaked in number of people in the workforce recently. It won't be too long until their population peaks, and then it will decline.
Their economic numbers are ho-hum, they have to import all there energy, we could cut them off at any time. China doesn't even have access to the sea except through our permission because of the first island change.
The real danger in China is that the Communist regime falls too soon, and becomes more open and prosperous society, due to increased economic freedom.
But the Chinese have lots of things working against them. They've peaked.
I'd be shocked if Trump caved to them. They're not in a strong position, and though we no longer hold all the cards, we still hold most of them.
