Again, revenue to Treasury is fungible. You do know what that means, don't you?
Tariffs
- Thread starter grandhavendiddy
- Start date
Thanks Gator. This is the most well written analysis and explanation of what and why Trump is moving forward with the use of tariffs than I have read anywhere. If someone can't read what you have written and understand what is happening, then they have a serious problem of comprehension.
VERY simple solution...BUY AMERICAN...and this is the intention. No tariffs on American made goods. And the car business sure is doing quite well despite tariffs. We are down from 150 new vehicles on our lot, to 30. So I am not buying overall companies pulling back...unless they support our adversary China. The place that killed millions with covid, and want to end American power.
So why is Trump proposing taxpayer subsidies for impacted US producers?
Excellent explanation. The people that need to read this the most will likely ignore. Such is life.
Trump is proposing stuff in the middle of multiple negotiations? Wow, that is a head-scratcher.
Dead ass wrong.China caves on 125% tariff for major US export after White House predicts Beijing can't keep up
China caved on one of its major 125% tariffs against ethane imports from the U.S. on Tuesday, having initially imposed the tariff last month.www.foxbusiness.com
Bradleygator got this one 100% wrong! He said Trump caved? LOLOLOL
You did get immigration right. You also said his stance on abortion would crush him and pubs. Both cruised to easy wins. You also said he was wrong about tariffs. Early signs are that will be another winner for him.
I go on his track record. If he has a track record for performing well, I continue to believe he will perform well.
It's not that hard.
Because the tariff revenue will more than offset it.
That’s what Fungible means. Which is a completely foreign concept to you.
You're right, @GhostOfMatchesMalone has no freaking clue what he's talking about.
1 year ago today the DOW was at 37,903. Right now it's at 41,023. That's +8.2%.
1 year ago today the S&P was at 5018. Right now it's at 5651. That's +12.6%
1 year ago today the NASDAQ was at 15,605. Right now it's at 17,878. That's +14.6%.
He got excited because the market dipped on weaker than expected GDP yesterday. The GDP was weaker than expected cause imports surged. Imports surged cause countries were trying to get their goods in before Trump's tariffs kicked in.
Which, ironically, proves the tariffs DO work.
So the markets have gained 8-14% in the last year. @grandhavendiddy thats what you remind the in laws the next time they call.
You're like a toddler who cries if he doesn't get what he wants RIGHT NOW. Most voters don't take a minute by minute approach to voting decisions. They'll look back at a body of work when they enter the ballot box.
1) He's got both sides talking, and now there appears to be a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine in the works. We're as close as we've ever been to reaching peace. What did Biden do to end the war?
2) Hamas leaders just left Cairo seeking peace. It's a centuries-long conflict, it's not going to happen overnight https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/26/middleeast/hamas-cairo-ceasefire-hostage-talks-intl-latam/index.html
3) Again, he's working on it. It's messy. This one may not go his way. You can't win them all. https://gcaptain.com/operation-roug...-houthi-targets-as-shipping-crisis-continues/
4) Yes, they are. You have no clue what you're talking about, once again. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/here-every-country-working-trade-deals-us
You're right, they are hard. We just hit the 100 day mark. Put your binkie back in, grab blanky, and let the adults work on these issues.
I like how lefties will say something to the effect of “ well yeah, everyone knows we have to do something about trade, but trump is doing it a stupid way”…. All the while they have never, ever done anything but aid china in the process. They got no plan, in fact, they denied this even a problem until 5 minutes ago.
Ray Charles can see how this will be AMAZING for our economy when it all gets done. EVERY trade deal will be exponentially better for the USA. Libs just are against ANYTHING Trump wants now. They have not come forward with ONE single idea to help...just against anything Trump wants. What they fail to realize is...most of America is on to them now for opening the borders, covering up FJB's dementia, and 25% inflation. They are not on a sustainable path
I can tell you living in an area where there are 2 SF's bases and one huge test base that something is going to happen concerning Iran/Houthi's REAL soon. You can just feel it around here. I can tell you our active duty feel that they are going to be called on soon.
(not to go over....talking about the people deployed already) They are on high alert. (this could be to put pressure on Iran, or it could be we ARE going to attack soon. I think the latter)
It seems he doesn't understand why Trump is doing what he does, so he assumes Trump doesnt know what he is doing either.
And Trump may not always be right or 100% right, BUT he is correct way way way way more then he is not. It would break the records for highest batting average ever.
I do have some concerning news.
Our Builder rep (he calls on the big track home builders, like Ryan Homes, as well as the national multi family builders) was at corporate today and his update was no bueno.
The single family projects are decent, they project flat to slightly down. But the multi family builders who would normally have 60-80 projects going on might have 2-5 right now. Investors are scared and sitting on the sidelines waiting to see how things play out. No capital = 2025 projects become 2026 projects.
It doesn’t really affect our core business, but it’s more of a concerning signal more broadly.
My step son has been in Construction business for 20 years. they have slowed down. I asked him why....he said "no workers, they are gone" Self deportation I guess....
From ChatGPT:
As of May 1, 2025, here are the approximate one-year returns for the major U.S. stock indices:
- S&P 500: The index has returned approximately 6.80% over the past year. YCharts+1YCharts+1
- NASDAQ Composite: The index has returned approximately 12.52% over the past year. MarketWatch
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: The index has returned approximately 7.07% over the past year.
Not identical, but directionally right. 6.8% is not (historically) great, but not bad. It's off 300-400 basis points, in nominal terms.
The average annual return of the S&P 500 since 1926 is approximately:
10%–11% per year (nominal)
- This includes both capital appreciation and dividends.
- The real return (adjusted for inflation) is closer to 7% per year.
Breakdown:
- Price return only: ~7.5% annually
- Dividends: ~2%–3% annually (varies by decade)
- Inflation: ~2%–3% annually on average, reducing real returns
This long-term average smooths over substantial volatility, including major downturns (e.g., Great Depression, 2008 crisis) and bull markets (e.g., post-WWII boom, 2010s).
Now - where @bradleygator is correct, is that these up turns have happened when: a) tariffs are getting paused or removed and b) when Bessent and not Navarro has been the "adult in the room".
My post on Tariffs (this thread) said (essentially, but feel free to pull the receipts), "Trump's success is not getting dragged down ideologically but Navarro."
I am 100% with @Capt Ron 1 that says, "all is well that ends well". My stock portfolio is up. I bought a LOT of MSFT at ~360. It is trading at 430 now. I am likely going to sell, take a short run hit (but perhaps not) and diversify out.
So...let's keep following the data and give credit where credit is due is when Trump makes adjustments and the numbers prove to be positive.
I honestly believe the only ay this can go is WAY up. Might have another big bump in the road....but short lived I believe. By the mid terms...this economy will be singing like never before.
What IS true is that people have short memories. If MSFT is at 475 and the S&P is at 5,750 come next year and there are a series of trade deals, GM committing to build new plants not just take up Fort Wayne unused capacity, new investments and the 10 year sitting at 3.5 or so, along with real regulatory reform, etc. the right should have a very good outcome in the mid-terms.
I try to avoid TDS and TSS. But I look at results. The border has been an A+. Only judges and progressives are getting in his and the countries way. Oil is way down. $2.99 is many places where I live. That is a great answer. DEI is being purged. A to A+.
Need to get this right while shifting 40 years of (insert your uncharitable term) of going only to the lowest cost locations.
Our warehouse (where certain products are fabricated and kitted) is like being in Mexico. Absolutely no change or problems finding workers since Trump took office. But it's literally polka music and no English at all in that building.
No one is going to get everything right, but I don't understand how any reasonable person is upset.
My numbers were literally a point in time (whenever I hit post reply).
I always have to fact-check any figures that ChatGPT or any AI gives me. It's like reading a claim by @kalimgoodman, I assume it's wrong.
Doc(1776) can tell you chatgpt does not know what double pneumonia is!
This is the Senate Minority Leader. What a dumb Fuchs.
Nissan is struggling. They supposedly have ~18 months to right the ship. I saw an add that promoted the fact they were tariff free because the cars are made here. It may help them with a come back. They have to fix the transmission issue that have given them a bad rap over the years.
Listening to the radio the other day. If imports had been normal, instead of the increase, GDP would have been around 2% for the quarter.
They also talked about how Biden's GDPs #s were not really accurate, as all were over inflated because of all the Government spending.
They also predicted that once the tariffs or new trade deals kick in and our Exports increase and Imports decrease, the GDP well take off.
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