Tariffs

[grandhavendiddy]

I will say, this was not on my dance card in terms of what I wanted Trump to do. My memory is not perfect, but I am pretty sure (feel free to bring up old posts, if my recollection is off) of the vigorous debates we had on this board, Tariffs were not one of them.

We may be forcing (unnecessarily) a recession not tied to reduce the size of government (which I am ALL for).

I was absolutely for Tariffs to shut down the border. I happen to think that if Canada wants to ship us cheap oil and lumber to reduce the cost of fuel and input costs to so many and in turn allow us to build housing more cheaply, then terrific.

We will see. if the right loses the house in 2026 and then the white house in 2028 because of THIS issue, then it is (similar to Biden excluding Elon from the EV summit) a massive unforced error.

Again, we will see.

 

[JimGaster]

I am a "Free Trade" guy. However, the way our politicians have monetized and outsourced our industries & economy it is time. Thier greed is the root cause of most of our problems.

If we don't get AT LEAST our critical manufacturing industries back - America is sunk.

Another BOLD, DECISIVE move by Trump to help the lives of Americans.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Yet somehow, the economy will not only survive, it will thrive. Again.

 

[fatman76]

I will say, this was not on my dance card in terms of what I wanted Trump to do. My memory is not perfect, but I am pretty sure (feel free to bring up old posts, if my recollection is off) of the vigorous debates we had on this board, Tariffs were not one of them.

We may be forcing (unnecessarily) a recession not tied to reduce the size of government (which I am ALL for).

I was absolutely for Tariffs to shut down the border. I happen to think that if Canada wants to ship us cheap oil and lumber to reduce the cost of fuel and input costs to so many and in turn allow us to build housing more cheaply, then terrific.

We will see. if the right loses the house in 2026 and then the white house in 2028 because of THIS issue, then it is (similar to Biden excluding Elon from the EV summit) a massive unforced error.

Again, we will see.

Point to an example where tariffs caused a recession please.

And have you seen the global response? Israel, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada have all either eliminated tariffs on US imports or told Trump if we drop ours they'll drop theirs. I'm probably missing some because the news cycle is nuts rn.

All he wants is free trade, and our tariff schedule PALES in comparison to most other industrialized nations even after his latest actions.

It's time to level the playing field and bring manufacturing back. Over $4T in commitments to move plants back from OUS have already been made.

This is how you make a country great, you utilize leverage and do what's best for it, regardless of the electoral consequences. That takes balls and it's been awhile since we've seen someone with a spine in charge.

 

[GatorTheo]

I will say, this was not on my dance card in terms of what I wanted Trump to do. My memory is not perfect, but I am pretty sure (feel free to bring up old posts, if my recollection is off) of the vigorous debates we had on this board, Tariffs were not one of them.

We may be forcing (unnecessarily) a recession not tied to reduce the size of government (which I am ALL for).

I was absolutely for Tariffs to shut down the border. I happen to think that if Canada wants to ship us cheap oil and lumber to reduce the cost of fuel and input costs to so many and in turn allow us to build housing more cheaply, then terrific.

We will see. if the right loses the house in 2026 and then the white house in 2028 because of THIS issue, then it is (similar to Biden excluding Elon from the EV summit) a massive unforced error.

Again, we will see.

Just like in his first term, Trump has been given an opportunity to grow his side. I hope that he doesn't fail again. Last thing America needs is the democrats back in the driver's seat.

 

[grandhavendiddy]

Point to an example where tariffs caused a recession please.

And have you seen the global response? Israel, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada have all either eliminated tariffs on US imports or told Trump if we drop ours they'll drop theirs. I'm probably missing some because the news cycle is nuts rn.

All he wants is free trade, and our tariff schedule PALES in comparison to most other industrialized nations even after his latest actions.

It's time to level the playing field and bring manufacturing back. Over $4T in commitments to move plants back from OUS have already been made.

This is how you make a country great, you utilize leverage and do what's best for it, regardless of the electoral consequences. That takes balls and it's been awhile since we've seen someone with a spine in charge.

Great Depression - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Literally the Great Depression.

His goals are terrific. No question. The question is what industries. There are some industries we don't want back, or we just want part of their supply chains back.

My concern is that he is making a broad philosophical point but taking a cudgel versus a scalpel.

Ted Cruz said the same, Ben Shapiro said, etc.

The last time we took a hammer and a cudgel to a problem was the great pandemic and Fauci. And he ruined this country for a year. A more surgical approach that people like Tucker said, again and again, is protect the elderly and immuno-compromised, no mandates, no lockdowns, and be very specific on masking. Instead we got the disaster including the debt.

Trump won 2024 on common sense and practical measures. Some of the tarrifs are exactly that: BMWs and Mercedes - sure hit them with Tarrifs. Bring back Whirlpool's manufacturing. Got it.

Others - little to no sense.

It's fine to agree to disagree. The last thing I want is Hillary 2.0, Biden 2.0 or worse AOC/Bernie 2.0. You want to see open borders again, get them back.

 

[grandhavendiddy]

Just like in his first term, Trump has been given an opportunity to grow his side. I hope that he doesn't fail again. Last thing America needs is the democrats back in the driver's seat.

This

 

[grandhavendiddy]

Yet somehow, the economy will not only survive, it will thrive. Again.

We will see. I hope that is accurate. I will agree with Scott B. that one should not look in terms of days and weeks. Multiple quarters will tell the story.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

I will say, this was not on my dance card in terms of what I wanted Trump to do. My memory is not perfect, but I am pretty sure (feel free to bring up old posts, if my recollection is off) of the vigorous debates we had on this board, Tariffs were not one of them.

We may be forcing (unnecessarily) a recession not tied to reduce the size of government (which I am ALL for).

I was absolutely for Tariffs to shut down the border. I happen to think that if Canada wants to ship us cheap oil and lumber to reduce the cost of fuel and input costs to so many and in turn allow us to build housing more cheaply, then terrific.

We will see. if the right loses the house in 2026 and then the white house in 2028 because of THIS issue, then it is (similar to Biden excluding Elon from the EV summit) a massive unforced error.

Again, we will see.

This is where I 100% disagree with you. We were ALREADY in a trade war. EVERYONE put high tariffs on us...we just took it. Clinton let our jobs go overseas, and they have KEPT going. This is unsustainable. We are NOW RESPONDING to the trade war that was thrust upon us. I back these 110%. AMERICA FIRST. I watched Trumps speech yesterday. I have NEVER seen him deliver a speech with more confidence than he did yesterday. I will trust the guy that is ALWAYS right on this.

SECONDLY, We have already seen what lefty leadership results are after 4 years of the idiot. At LEAST Trump is doing what he thinks is BEST for America....not his pockets like FJB and the democrats did

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Point to an example where tariffs caused a recession please.

And have you seen the global response? Israel, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada have all either eliminated tariffs on US imports or told Trump if we drop ours they'll drop theirs. I'm probably missing some because the news cycle is nuts rn.

All he wants is free trade, and our tariff schedule PALES in comparison to most other industrialized nations even after his latest actions.

It's time to level the playing field and bring manufacturing back. Over $4T in commitments to move plants back from OUS have already been made.

This is how you make a country great, you utilize leverage and do what's best for it, regardless of the electoral consequences. That takes balls and it's been awhile since we've seen someone with a spine in charge.

The last President to use tariffs as Trump wants to oversaw a massive growth spurt for the economy, and got assassinated for his trouble.

One day our friends on this board will begin to figure out that when the media says Trump's policies won't work, they are saying that cause they are terrified that they will work.

 

[NavigatorII]

The ENTIRE premise of threatening tariffs was to entice other countries to end their tariffs on our exports and level the playing field. We'll soon find out who blinks first. As usual the MSM is trying to wedge a worst case scenario before it unfolds, it's all they have. We'll see.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

The ENTIRE premise of threatening tariffs was to entice other countries to end their tariffs on our exports and level the playing field. We'll soon find out who blinks first. As usual the MSM is trying to wedge a worst case scenario before it unfolds, it's all they have. We'll see.

We have the United States of America's wealth and economy behind US...so I already know the answer...even though democrat WANT this to fail, even though it will be transformational for America. It is just who THEY are...AND the people who support them. THEY ARE NOT LIKE US.

 

[fatman76]

Great Depression - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Literally the Great Depression.

His goals are terrific. No question. The question is what industries. There are some industries we don't want back, or we just want part of their supply chains back.

My concern is that he is making a broad philosophical point but taking a cudgel versus a scalpel.

Ted Cruz said the same, Ben Shapiro said, etc.

The last time we took a hammer and a cudgel to a problem was the great pandemic and Fauci. And he ruined this country for a year. A more surgical approach that people like Tucker said, again and again, is protect the elderly and immuno-compromised, no mandates, no lockdowns, and be very specific on masking. Instead we got the disaster including the debt.

Trump won 2024 on common sense and practical measures. Some of the tarrifs are exactly that: BMWs and Mercedes - sure hit them with Tarrifs. Bring back Whirlpool's manufacturing. Got it.

Others - little to no sense.

It's fine to agree to disagree. The last thing I want is Hillary 2.0, Biden 2.0 or worse AOC/Bernie 2.0. You want to see open borders again, get them back.

1) The economy was very different back then. I don't think you can draw an exact parallel to Tariffs = economic collapse when the global scene is so different.
2) The root cause was loose monetary policy in the 20's creating a massive bubble that popped in 1929. Similar to the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bubble popping, when loans default on a massive scale it causes major issues in the economy.
3) Did they make it worse? Probably, but this doesn't prove causation.

Proof?
Trump was aggressive with tariffs in his first term and up to Covid, his economy was robust and healthy.

Tariffs in the first Trump administration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

 

[grandhavendiddy]

1) The economy was very different back then. I don't think you can draw an exact parallel to Tariffs = economic collapse when the global scene is so different.
2) The root cause was loose monetary policy in the 20's creating a massive bubble that popped in 1929. Similar to the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac bubble popping, when loans default on a massive scale it causes major issues in the economy.
3) Did they make it worse? Probably, but this doesn't prove causation.

Proof?
Trump was aggressive with tariffs in his first term and up to Covid, his economy was robust and healthy.

Tariffs in the first Trump administration - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It was different but it is broadly accepted that it was a main contributing factor

I read the article. Good article.

It said that major economists panned it including, wait for it, Larry Kudlow. Larry is no liberal.

It also said that it was a cause (not solely) of the republicans doing so poorly in 2020.

That is my greatest fear: the right loses elections as these actions drive up prices, hurt industries and maybe create 50-100k good jobs. Expensive set of jobs.

Trumps done a phenomenal job on some of the main items I voted for him for: starting with immigration and undoing the DEI wave ushered in by Biden.

Now he needs to improve the economy and bring down inflation. This does not achieve those things.

Again, we will see.

 

[nail1988]

Great Depression - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Literally the Great Depression.

His goals are terrific. No question. The question is what industries. There are some industries we don't want back, or we just want part of their supply chains back.

My concern is that he is making a broad philosophical point but taking a cudgel versus a scalpel.

Ted Cruz said the same, Ben Shapiro said, etc.

The last time we took a hammer and a cudgel to a problem was the great pandemic and Fauci. And he ruined this country for a year. A more surgical approach that people like Tucker said, again and again, is protect the elderly and immuno-compromised, no mandates, no lockdowns, and be very specific on masking. Instead we got the disaster including the debt.

Trump won 2024 on common sense and practical measures. Some of the tarrifs are exactly that: BMWs and Mercedes - sure hit them with Tarrifs. Bring back Whirlpool's manufacturing. Got it.

Others - little to no sense.

It's fine to agree to disagree. The last thing I want is Hillary 2.0, Biden 2.0 or worse AOC/Bernie 2.0. You want to see open borders again, get them bac

It’s all going to come down to monetary policy. Read Milton Friedman on tariffs

FDR raised massive taxes, spending, along with tariffs crippled this country and caused a depression.

Trump is cutting government, spending, deregulation and bringing companies back to America along with reciprocal tariffs. Never been done before.

Its important that @GatorTheo limp risted, cowardly French republicans psss his tax cuts or this will all be for not.

 

[SwampRock]

The ENTIRE premise of threatening tariffs was to entice other countries to end their tariffs on our exports and level the playing field. We'll soon find out who blinks first. As usual the MSM is trying to wedge a worst case scenario before it unfolds, it's all they have. We'll see.

And we have leverage because their dependence on us is greater than ours on them as well. I believe rh suffering will be short term and markets return quickly as they are forced to cave. This is about leveling the playing field and there will be some short term pain (Trump said so much when he talked about these earlier) but the long term gains will reduce our deficits greatly and increase the health of our economy. I’m willing to stand pat with my money where it is.

 

[NavigatorII]

And we have leverage because their dependence on us is greater than ours on them as well. I believe rh suffering will be short term and markets return quickly as they are forced to cave. This is about leveling the playing field and there will be some short term pain (Trump said so much when he talked about these earlier) but the long term gains will reduce our deficits greatly and increase the health of our economy. I’m willing to stand pat with my money where it is.

Yep. And if you can afford to, buy the dip. Always have dry powder for times like these.

 

[fatman76]

It was different but it is broadly accepted that it was a main contributing factor

I read the article. Good article.

It said that major economists panned it including, wait for it, Larry Kudlow. Larry is no liberal.

It also said that it was a cause (not solely) of the republicans doing so poorly in 2020.

That is my greatest fear: the right loses elections as these actions drive up prices, hurt industries and maybe create 50-100k good jobs. Expensive set of jobs.

Trumps done a phenomenal job on some of the main items I voted for him for: starting with immigration and undoing the DEI wave ushered in by Biden.

Now he needs to improve the economy and bring down inflation. This does not achieve those things.

Again, we will see.

The tariffs happened after the economic crash of 1929. The timeline doesn’t even make sense.

It’s going to take time to fix the economy. Biden did an enormous amount of damage. He’s not even to 100 days and most indicators look positive.

And tariffs do not get passed to the consumer 1:1. I am a Product Manager for a company that manufacturers in the US and sells imported goods. We haven’t raised prices yet because we are waiting for all of this to stabilize, but when we do it’s going to be a split between the manufacturer, our broker, us and the Distributor. Retail may see 25% of whatever the increase is, and we’re scrambling to qualify suppliers in less affected countries.

Only about 15% of US goods are imported. I don’t think that’s going to wreck the economy or efforts to tamp inflation.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

The tariffs happened after the economic crash of 1929. The timeline doesn’t even make sense.

"Trump will regret pushing tariffs" has the same vibe as "Trump will regret overturning Roe v Wade"

 

[grandhavendiddy]

The tariffs happened after the economic crash of 1929. The timeline doesn’t even make sense.

It’s going to take time to fix the economy. Biden did an enormous amount of damage. He’s not even to 100 days and most indicators look positive.

And tariffs do not get passed to the consumer 1:1. I am a Product Manager for a company that manufacturers in the US and sells imported goods. We haven’t raised prices yet because we are waiting for all of this to stabilize, but when we do it’s going to be a split between the manufacturer, our broker, us and the Distributor. Retail may see 25% of whatever the increase is, and we’re scrambling to qualify suppliers in less affected countries.

Only about 15% of US goods are imported. I don’t think that’s going to wreck the economy or efforts to tamp inflation.

It’s in the article. They were implemented in 1930. They lengthened and deepened the recession and it went years upon years. Fascism rose in the 1930s for a reason.

If only 15 percent of goods are imported (not sure I believe that number, but a separate discussion) then who cares? Why even do it.

Ted Cruz just went on Kudlow on Fox decrying them as did Jim Cramer as has Ben Shapiro.

If we had free trade zone with Canada and Mexico and were creating an axis against China - then got it.

This is not what I voted for, and I was pretty clear throughout.

Again, we will see.

 

[nail1988]

 

[nail1988]

 

[grandhavendiddy]

View embedded media

If tariffs get dropped great

But Israel did that and tariffs were STILL applied

 

[grandhavendiddy]

View embedded media

This is great. And why I never voted for people like Nancy and Bernie.

Now, of course both are silent, in part, because Pelosi is worth over 100 million dollars.

 

[Capt Ron 1]

And we have leverage because their dependence on us is greater than ours on them as well. I believe rh suffering will be short term and markets return quickly as they are forced to cave. This is about leveling the playing field and there will be some short term pain (Trump said so much when he talked about these earlier) but the long term gains will reduce our deficits greatly and increase the health of our economy. I’m willing to stand pat with my money where it is.

BINGO. We win in the end

 

[Capt Ron 1]

Trust the multi billionaire. I do.

 

[fatman76]

It’s in the article. They were implemented in 1930. They lengthened and deepened the recession and it went years upon years. Fascism rose in the 1930s for a reason.

If only 15 percent of goods are imported (not sure I believe that number, but a separate discussion) then who cares? Why even do it.

Ted Cruz just went on Kudlow on Fox decrying them as did Jim Cramer as has Ben Shapiro.

If we had free trade zone with Canada and Mexico and were creating an axis against China - then got it.

This is not what I voted for, and I was pretty clear throughout.

Again, we will see.

The crash happened in 1929.

Smoot-Hawley was the following year. The timeline doesn’t add up that tariffs “caused” the Great Depression. Best you can say is they contributed because the timing was terrible. But we aren’t in the middle of a financial bubble bursting right now.

And the leverage was different - other countries retaliated with reciprocal tariffs because they could afford to. In this instance, we're moving second, we're just responding with our own reciprocal tariffs. So far I've only heard of Chile trying to fight fire with fire. Most other countries are already capitulating or offering to...because the have to have access to our goods and services and our markets.

In 1929 imports were 4.2% of the GNP. In 2022 they were 15%. This isn't going to tank the economy now, and it didn't then. The entire world was reliant on our banking and monetary system, and it totally collapsed in 1929. Sure, I'd agree in that scenario you probably don't want to enact a protectionist trade policy - especially when you have no leverage. But the two scenarios are completely different. Economics is too complicated to say "tariffs caused the Great Depression".

And you do it because you can 1) raise billions and maybe trillions of dollars, with the hope of reducing tax burdens, and 2) you incentivise and bring back manufacturing which makes us more economically independent and brings back jobs.

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

It’s in the article. They were implemented in 1930. They lengthened and deepened the recession and it went years upon years. Fascism rose in the 1930s for a reason.

Wait...are you saying that US tariffs led to fascism in Europe?

 

[jsfgators]

I think the rest of the world is going to have to come to the table. I think that once a couple of them come to the table, pressure will build on the others to hurry up and not be the last one. The later in the game they wait to jump on board the less we need them. I don’t like tariffs but I think it’s a necessary evil. You can’t let the rest of the world strip out your industry and siphon your wealth.

 

[fatman76]

View embedded media

Trump could cure cancer and the Left would blame him for killing Pharma jobs.

He literally cannot win with these hypocrites.

 

[JimGaster]

America is worth saving. Our Political Elites have sold-out America and our manufacturing base. If we do not take it back now - WHEN?!?!

Robotics and AI-centric Manufacturing MUST come to America... That must happen NOW!

 

[nail1988]

 

[nail1988]

 

[nail1988]

 

[nail1988]

 

[nail1988]

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

For those non trolls who genuinely think the tariffs will not work cause that's what the media is claiming...I have two questions.

1 - When is the last time Trump came out with a policy and the media said it would work?

2 - When is the last time Trump came out with a policy and the media said it wouldn't work...and the media was proven RIGHT?


Track records matter.

 

[gatorspeed]

America is worth saving. Our Political Elites have sold-out America and our manufacturing base. If we do not take it back now - WHEN?!?!

Robotics and AI-centric Manufacturing MUST come to America... That must happen NOW!

Jim I sure pray you and Capt are right, bcos if your not, it’s gonna get funky like a monkey, tons of good folks are suffering thru this, on both sides of the isle, I just wish Trump would be more open about a timeline than just saying this and saying that, it will get old fast if things don’t get turned around sooner than later, I’m curious, what would you be saying if Obama or Biden was blasting the stock market and economy with Tariffs? And if your gonna be slick no need too respond

 

[GhostOfMatchesMalone]

Jim I sure pray you and Capt are right, bcos if your not, it’s gonna get funky like a monkey, tons of good folks are suffering thru this, on both sides of the isle, I just wish Trump would be more open about a timeline than just saying this and saying that, it will get old fast if things don’t get turned around sooner than later, I’m curious, what would you be saying if Obama or Biden was blasting the stock market and economy with Tariffs? And if your gonna be slick no need too respond

Monster jobs report this morning homey, where were you?