Wanted to let a few days pass to bleed out the emotional highs/lows from the last week....
* It's clear that Napier and his staff have an ability to identify talent. A class that was elevated to # 3 at one point clearly demonstrates that... however Napier is once again sufferring for outkicking his coverage early and the death spiral late exaggerated the negative perception around the program impacting the finish. Let me explain...
> In 2022 - the thrilling home win vs. Utah was a curse in disguise. It changed the preseason expectations of hoping to finish @ 500 with a dearth of talent to expecting to give Georgia a run for the money in the East... that all came crashing down vs. Kentucky and then takes unexpected wins vs. A&M (on road) & dominates a ranked SC at home to once again have the fan base expecting we're on the right track and 2nd best in SECE only to no show against Vandy and lose the remainder of the games. The good news was that there was no recruiting defections... the unfortunate part was there was no new additions and momentum. The wolf came by and blew the piggy's house made of straw.
> In 2023 - expectations were simply get back to 500 and have top 5 recruiting class. The roller coaster continued - as early June - everyone questioned Napier and by end of the summer official visit season - we're up to #3. As they say in recruiting - have an announced committment is a blessing and curse. It's great if you get the commit, however all the other schools know exactly where to fire their bullets at and try to knock you off. When the team unexpectedly came back from 10 against SC on the road (it became our Utah) - elevated expectations risen from it. It was no longer acceptable at best to finish at .500 despite a team void of All-SEC talent. Even with an additional 1 game cushion to stay above half full - the Arky game became our Vandy game. While quickly rebounding from the early deficit it allowed them to have hope and pounce on the miscues that took place. Despite the unquestioned effort in the remaining games (which huge amount of praise needs to be given to the coaching staff and players - and Florida's PR group should've found a way to highlight) another free fall occurred and this time it took the defensive recruiting class with it. The wolf came by and blew the piggy's house made of sticks.
The thing to ponder is this - if you finish 5-7, but won 4 of your last 5 after going 1-6 - would that have changed the narrative? Your expectation? Because 2024 has a significant Groundhog day feel to it. Any wins are likely to occur early as the post Georgia schedule is another troop advance to Moscow in the winter. The one saving grace is that FSU is expected to be significantly weakened in 2024 - and this young team will have grown up at that point. The key is for the team not to whipsaw expectations, beat the teams you're expected to beat, win the home games in the Swamp and finish in Tally - and that will likely coalase the fan base once again. The wolf will be visiting again in 24 - will the piggy house be made of bricks?
* For recruiting - can't thank enough all the key players behind the scenes for all their efforts playing in the cesspool to help elevate Florida. It's a dirty job and determining the roster allocation in this environment requires a new top down organizational approach. I've enjoyed reading many of different philosophies and approaches this week. My consolidated thoughts -
a) Pro Athlete Adults (in their 20's) have a difficult time handling new expectations after signing that big contract. Watch the NFL, MLB - every offseason - there are a host of players who have career years in a contract season and then get satisfied that they made it and never perform to the contract.
b) Now these same players are 5-10 years younger as 16-19 year olds and you're having to consider providing NIL opportunities in the 6-7 figures - with all risk and limited reward.
> After all here are the options:
1. the player performs at or above expectation and the return is in victories
2. the player performs at or above expectations and wants to renegotiate NIL or threatens transfer portal.
3. The player doesn't perform to expectations and stays on - providing negative returns
4. The player doesn't perform and transfers out - sunk cost
5. Player hasn't signed yet, but is using you to up the offer at another school - being used.
In addition - these players in a lot of instances are not even fully aware what their representatives and family members are doing in using the player as a pawn for their own gain.
So while it might be frustrating to see this staff be slow to offer - they have to be methodical and delibrate in fully assessing if the player is not only talented enough to play in the SEC, but psychologically analyze if they are mature enough to handle a financial windfall not previously experienced and not allow it to infest the locker room.
That is why everyone should be loving Napier and everyone involved in bringing Lagway to Gainesville - there is no question that he is the future leader of the Gators. DJ has already demonstrated humility, integrity, loyalty and committment throughout his entire recruitment. There is a comfort in knowing regardless of the amount of NIL DJ will earn - the risk is as low as can be and if you are making contributions - it's as good of a player investment you can make in this uncertain environment.
While excited that we were able to hold onto McCray - note that recruitment is an example of high risk - think betting all your money on red - this will end as either a spectacular success or failure in a few years. J Smith's recruitment was more like 3 card monty.
With that in mind - the traditional overweight in H.S. recruiting model should be re-evaluated to consider overweighting the freshman/sophomore transfer portal - where maximizing probability for players length of stay being > than 1 year and have a chance to assess their performance against uniform competition. For H.S. recruiting - focus on the limited portal supply - such as targeting positions on both lines - as they typically do not have the options available like the skill players do (WR/RB, CB/S).
In addition - the further from Gainesville they are - the more likely the player will initiate the transfer vs. NRA. In this new world - having the Spurrier approach of finding kids (ideally inside the 5 hour radius) who want to be a Florida Gator is important for instilling culture and love of program. Especially if roster turnover will exceed 50% over a player's 4 year career and players are viewed as hired mercenaries vs. developed through the farm system (using MLB reference) of what it means to be a Gator. These players are your foundation to build on and if you can find star players who bleed Orange & Blue even better.
> That's why Graham is such an integral player and why Thursday's tweet is hopefully not a cautionary sign like the canary in the coal mine on the inner workings of the organization. Additionally recruiting from your native recruiting area will give a leg up when these players (who didn't commit to Florida in HS) inevitably enter the portal.
With respect to NIL $ distribution - let the NFL be a cheat sheet... It's QB, OT, Edge rusher and skill players. Where is the marginal advantages lie over replacement factor. In this day of analytics - there are smarter people than me who can come up with the formula of win over replacement at the college level. Identify which players provide the greatest advantage and that's where you can allocate most of the resources. As referenced earlier in the week - in this current state - the top 5-10 players on the team should get the majority of the NIL "cap space" and the depth should be minimum. Of course until you build a consistent winner - each area will have to pay a "surtax".
Regarding coaching - No issues in letting Chaos and Corey go when they did. If you're going to replace them - replace them at first opportunity- don't bait and switch if you can. The defense regressed the 2nd half of the year and the ancetodal reporting their off-field interactions/decisions clearly impacted the performance on Saturday down the stretch. At the end of the day - this is AA's defense and he will have had complete roster turnover aside from MP who came aboard just before. What will be interesting is assessing the strengths of the defensive hires and whether they are oriented to recruiting or development? Also with as young as AA - is there any concern about hiring a coach much older and experienced than AA? My last question regarding AA - what is his true recruiting ability - it was praised early when all the prominent recruits committed early - but when record and positions coaches left - did AA lose any confidence in trying to rebuff the external noise?
The biggest coaching hire is yet to come - that's the S&C hire. There were too many instances of being overpowered in the trenches and lack of depth leading to becoming worn out at the end of games.
As far as offense is concerned - sign me up to the Calloway for OC - the offense improved even without a full deck and with Mertz back for another year and Lagway to compliment and learn from Mertz - this is an offense that should produce 25+ points consistently next season despite the schedule. This will allow some consistency in playing free and not thinking and free up a coaching spot that would've been assigned to an OC.
For Napier - my offseason questions are around transitioning more to the CEO role. Also as much as Napier is perceived as organized, thorough, prepared and deliberate - what steps are he and the staff taking to avoid a repeat of the Shakespearean tragedy of disorganization, lack of preparation and deer in headlights moments that took place on the field the first 2 years? Time management, game flow/tempo, playcalling early in the down on both sides to allow set up and ensure correct # players, feel for when to dial a trick play, 2 min offense, halftime adjustments and calling a TO and getting a penalty after a quarter change are situations where perception and reality haven't aligned and contribute heavily to noise in the system. While each occurance was unique and isolated in of itself - the quantity of events needs an honest assessment/evaluation of why they occur. Hopefully the answer lies in more delegation of responsibilities to allow CBN more time to focus on the big picture and allow fewer items to fall between the cracks.
Last thought is this - tell me the number of All SEC players that are currently on this roster? Multiply by 2 and that should be the # wins Florida should be expected to have next season.
* It's clear that Napier and his staff have an ability to identify talent. A class that was elevated to # 3 at one point clearly demonstrates that... however Napier is once again sufferring for outkicking his coverage early and the death spiral late exaggerated the negative perception around the program impacting the finish. Let me explain...
> In 2022 - the thrilling home win vs. Utah was a curse in disguise. It changed the preseason expectations of hoping to finish @ 500 with a dearth of talent to expecting to give Georgia a run for the money in the East... that all came crashing down vs. Kentucky and then takes unexpected wins vs. A&M (on road) & dominates a ranked SC at home to once again have the fan base expecting we're on the right track and 2nd best in SECE only to no show against Vandy and lose the remainder of the games. The good news was that there was no recruiting defections... the unfortunate part was there was no new additions and momentum. The wolf came by and blew the piggy's house made of straw.
> In 2023 - expectations were simply get back to 500 and have top 5 recruiting class. The roller coaster continued - as early June - everyone questioned Napier and by end of the summer official visit season - we're up to #3. As they say in recruiting - have an announced committment is a blessing and curse. It's great if you get the commit, however all the other schools know exactly where to fire their bullets at and try to knock you off. When the team unexpectedly came back from 10 against SC on the road (it became our Utah) - elevated expectations risen from it. It was no longer acceptable at best to finish at .500 despite a team void of All-SEC talent. Even with an additional 1 game cushion to stay above half full - the Arky game became our Vandy game. While quickly rebounding from the early deficit it allowed them to have hope and pounce on the miscues that took place. Despite the unquestioned effort in the remaining games (which huge amount of praise needs to be given to the coaching staff and players - and Florida's PR group should've found a way to highlight) another free fall occurred and this time it took the defensive recruiting class with it. The wolf came by and blew the piggy's house made of sticks.
The thing to ponder is this - if you finish 5-7, but won 4 of your last 5 after going 1-6 - would that have changed the narrative? Your expectation? Because 2024 has a significant Groundhog day feel to it. Any wins are likely to occur early as the post Georgia schedule is another troop advance to Moscow in the winter. The one saving grace is that FSU is expected to be significantly weakened in 2024 - and this young team will have grown up at that point. The key is for the team not to whipsaw expectations, beat the teams you're expected to beat, win the home games in the Swamp and finish in Tally - and that will likely coalase the fan base once again. The wolf will be visiting again in 24 - will the piggy house be made of bricks?
* For recruiting - can't thank enough all the key players behind the scenes for all their efforts playing in the cesspool to help elevate Florida. It's a dirty job and determining the roster allocation in this environment requires a new top down organizational approach. I've enjoyed reading many of different philosophies and approaches this week. My consolidated thoughts -
a) Pro Athlete Adults (in their 20's) have a difficult time handling new expectations after signing that big contract. Watch the NFL, MLB - every offseason - there are a host of players who have career years in a contract season and then get satisfied that they made it and never perform to the contract.
b) Now these same players are 5-10 years younger as 16-19 year olds and you're having to consider providing NIL opportunities in the 6-7 figures - with all risk and limited reward.
> After all here are the options:
1. the player performs at or above expectation and the return is in victories
2. the player performs at or above expectations and wants to renegotiate NIL or threatens transfer portal.
3. The player doesn't perform to expectations and stays on - providing negative returns
4. The player doesn't perform and transfers out - sunk cost
5. Player hasn't signed yet, but is using you to up the offer at another school - being used.
In addition - these players in a lot of instances are not even fully aware what their representatives and family members are doing in using the player as a pawn for their own gain.
So while it might be frustrating to see this staff be slow to offer - they have to be methodical and delibrate in fully assessing if the player is not only talented enough to play in the SEC, but psychologically analyze if they are mature enough to handle a financial windfall not previously experienced and not allow it to infest the locker room.
That is why everyone should be loving Napier and everyone involved in bringing Lagway to Gainesville - there is no question that he is the future leader of the Gators. DJ has already demonstrated humility, integrity, loyalty and committment throughout his entire recruitment. There is a comfort in knowing regardless of the amount of NIL DJ will earn - the risk is as low as can be and if you are making contributions - it's as good of a player investment you can make in this uncertain environment.
While excited that we were able to hold onto McCray - note that recruitment is an example of high risk - think betting all your money on red - this will end as either a spectacular success or failure in a few years. J Smith's recruitment was more like 3 card monty.
With that in mind - the traditional overweight in H.S. recruiting model should be re-evaluated to consider overweighting the freshman/sophomore transfer portal - where maximizing probability for players length of stay being > than 1 year and have a chance to assess their performance against uniform competition. For H.S. recruiting - focus on the limited portal supply - such as targeting positions on both lines - as they typically do not have the options available like the skill players do (WR/RB, CB/S).
In addition - the further from Gainesville they are - the more likely the player will initiate the transfer vs. NRA. In this new world - having the Spurrier approach of finding kids (ideally inside the 5 hour radius) who want to be a Florida Gator is important for instilling culture and love of program. Especially if roster turnover will exceed 50% over a player's 4 year career and players are viewed as hired mercenaries vs. developed through the farm system (using MLB reference) of what it means to be a Gator. These players are your foundation to build on and if you can find star players who bleed Orange & Blue even better.
> That's why Graham is such an integral player and why Thursday's tweet is hopefully not a cautionary sign like the canary in the coal mine on the inner workings of the organization. Additionally recruiting from your native recruiting area will give a leg up when these players (who didn't commit to Florida in HS) inevitably enter the portal.
With respect to NIL $ distribution - let the NFL be a cheat sheet... It's QB, OT, Edge rusher and skill players. Where is the marginal advantages lie over replacement factor. In this day of analytics - there are smarter people than me who can come up with the formula of win over replacement at the college level. Identify which players provide the greatest advantage and that's where you can allocate most of the resources. As referenced earlier in the week - in this current state - the top 5-10 players on the team should get the majority of the NIL "cap space" and the depth should be minimum. Of course until you build a consistent winner - each area will have to pay a "surtax".
Regarding coaching - No issues in letting Chaos and Corey go when they did. If you're going to replace them - replace them at first opportunity- don't bait and switch if you can. The defense regressed the 2nd half of the year and the ancetodal reporting their off-field interactions/decisions clearly impacted the performance on Saturday down the stretch. At the end of the day - this is AA's defense and he will have had complete roster turnover aside from MP who came aboard just before. What will be interesting is assessing the strengths of the defensive hires and whether they are oriented to recruiting or development? Also with as young as AA - is there any concern about hiring a coach much older and experienced than AA? My last question regarding AA - what is his true recruiting ability - it was praised early when all the prominent recruits committed early - but when record and positions coaches left - did AA lose any confidence in trying to rebuff the external noise?
The biggest coaching hire is yet to come - that's the S&C hire. There were too many instances of being overpowered in the trenches and lack of depth leading to becoming worn out at the end of games.
As far as offense is concerned - sign me up to the Calloway for OC - the offense improved even without a full deck and with Mertz back for another year and Lagway to compliment and learn from Mertz - this is an offense that should produce 25+ points consistently next season despite the schedule. This will allow some consistency in playing free and not thinking and free up a coaching spot that would've been assigned to an OC.
For Napier - my offseason questions are around transitioning more to the CEO role. Also as much as Napier is perceived as organized, thorough, prepared and deliberate - what steps are he and the staff taking to avoid a repeat of the Shakespearean tragedy of disorganization, lack of preparation and deer in headlights moments that took place on the field the first 2 years? Time management, game flow/tempo, playcalling early in the down on both sides to allow set up and ensure correct # players, feel for when to dial a trick play, 2 min offense, halftime adjustments and calling a TO and getting a penalty after a quarter change are situations where perception and reality haven't aligned and contribute heavily to noise in the system. While each occurance was unique and isolated in of itself - the quantity of events needs an honest assessment/evaluation of why they occur. Hopefully the answer lies in more delegation of responsibilities to allow CBN more time to focus on the big picture and allow fewer items to fall between the cracks.
Last thought is this - tell me the number of All SEC players that are currently on this roster? Multiply by 2 and that should be the # wins Florida should be expected to have next season.
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