I know everybody is focused on how this season finishes out and making sure we avoid another losing season. These upcoming games are important, but I'm going to make a hot take:
What happens in December and January is more important than what happens in November.
If we win the next 3 games and finish 8-4 then the above becomes a silly statement. The statement above recognizes the most likely result is either 5-7 or 6-6. No sense in getting over-fixated on which of the two most likely outcomes comes to fruition, what's most important is what he does for the future of the program:
Does he hire an OC?
Is a downfield passing game prioritized?
Are changes made to the OL staff?
Is Strength and Conditioning re-evaluated?
Are Special Teams cleaned up and prioritized?
Will they go after portal options in November and December instead of January?
Will they ask for workout videos?
Will they be able to keep top players on the team from portaling?
Will they become more aggressive in pushing non-productive players to the Portal?
Will that evaluation include Napier players or will it mostly still focus on the few Mullen players left?
.
.
.
.
Sign Lagway
Hold onto most of the class
The above layout was done so purposefully. I'm as big a recruitnik as they come, but Recruiting is not as important as the questions above at least for Napier. If the season finishes like most think then Napier will not have "won" to a sufficient extent in his first 2 years, thus increasing the pressure to do so in Year 3. As we are seeing this season, true freshmen can help your team but they are unlikely to move the needle in a significant way. That statement is less true when a top QB is involved, which is why I had Lagway as higher in importance than the class as a whole. By 2025 the 2024 class should start providing more dividends, but unless Napier has safely made it through the Year3 to Year 4 transition it won't matter for him. Sure, it would help the next coach, but a new coach is likely to lose quite a few of them to the Portal. Either way, winning in 2024 is going to involve doing so mostly with the players already on campus and perhaps some top portal additions. Thankfully, there is a fair amount of talent on campus but we need to develop it both physically and mentally. If Napier had won in Year 1 or Year 2, he perhaps could have sold Year 3 as a necessary build-up for something bigger in Year 4, but that fan-capital was not created and not winning in Year 3 I suspect looks more like a trend than a launching pad for Year 4.
With our current #3 class it's readily apparent that fans are not going to cut Napier slack about losing games because he is recruiting well and that has changed my thinking from he definitely gets 4 years to acknowledging not winning in Year 3 brings in a large amount of uncertainty. It's not pleasant to extrapolate where we are today (5-4) and then incrementally add the angst from more losses this season and perhaps next season as well. I don't think anyone can say for certain what that would lead to, which leads me back to how the questions above are handled in December and January. These changes will be needed regardless of how they recruit, otherwise we arent likely to leverage that talent to its full potential.
Update (5/2/2024):
Following up on my questions 5 months later...
Does he hire an OC? No, but he is giving Callaway more input
Is a downfield passing game prioritized? Uncertain. Could use another portal WR
Are changes made to the OL staff? Yes
Is Strength and Conditioning re-evaluated? Hell Yes
Are Special Teams cleaned up and prioritized? Yes
Will they go after portal options in November and December instead of January? Yes
Will they ask for workout videos? No
Will they be able to keep top players on the team from portaling? Mostly so
Will they become more aggressive in pushing non-productive players to the Portal? Yes
Will that evaluation include Napier players or will it mostly still focus on the few Mullen players left? Yes, Napier got rid of just about everybody player that I had on my list, regardless if they were a Mullen or Napier kid.
.
.
.
.
Sign Lagway Yes
Hold onto most of the class Not really, but he did bring in POST-NSD 2024 Class adds: D'Antre Robinson, Jameer Grimsley, and Jason Zandamela. All 3 Top 35 in-state players.
Napier is in the process of transitioning a from a Rated PG Coach to the Rated R Coach we need.
What happens in December and January is more important than what happens in November.
If we win the next 3 games and finish 8-4 then the above becomes a silly statement. The statement above recognizes the most likely result is either 5-7 or 6-6. No sense in getting over-fixated on which of the two most likely outcomes comes to fruition, what's most important is what he does for the future of the program:
Does he hire an OC?
Is a downfield passing game prioritized?
Are changes made to the OL staff?
Is Strength and Conditioning re-evaluated?
Are Special Teams cleaned up and prioritized?
Will they go after portal options in November and December instead of January?
Will they ask for workout videos?
Will they be able to keep top players on the team from portaling?
Will they become more aggressive in pushing non-productive players to the Portal?
Will that evaluation include Napier players or will it mostly still focus on the few Mullen players left?
.
.
.
.
Sign Lagway
Hold onto most of the class
The above layout was done so purposefully. I'm as big a recruitnik as they come, but Recruiting is not as important as the questions above at least for Napier. If the season finishes like most think then Napier will not have "won" to a sufficient extent in his first 2 years, thus increasing the pressure to do so in Year 3. As we are seeing this season, true freshmen can help your team but they are unlikely to move the needle in a significant way. That statement is less true when a top QB is involved, which is why I had Lagway as higher in importance than the class as a whole. By 2025 the 2024 class should start providing more dividends, but unless Napier has safely made it through the Year3 to Year 4 transition it won't matter for him. Sure, it would help the next coach, but a new coach is likely to lose quite a few of them to the Portal. Either way, winning in 2024 is going to involve doing so mostly with the players already on campus and perhaps some top portal additions. Thankfully, there is a fair amount of talent on campus but we need to develop it both physically and mentally. If Napier had won in Year 1 or Year 2, he perhaps could have sold Year 3 as a necessary build-up for something bigger in Year 4, but that fan-capital was not created and not winning in Year 3 I suspect looks more like a trend than a launching pad for Year 4.
With our current #3 class it's readily apparent that fans are not going to cut Napier slack about losing games because he is recruiting well and that has changed my thinking from he definitely gets 4 years to acknowledging not winning in Year 3 brings in a large amount of uncertainty. It's not pleasant to extrapolate where we are today (5-4) and then incrementally add the angst from more losses this season and perhaps next season as well. I don't think anyone can say for certain what that would lead to, which leads me back to how the questions above are handled in December and January. These changes will be needed regardless of how they recruit, otherwise we arent likely to leverage that talent to its full potential.
Update (5/2/2024):
Following up on my questions 5 months later...
Does he hire an OC? No, but he is giving Callaway more input
Is a downfield passing game prioritized? Uncertain. Could use another portal WR
Are changes made to the OL staff? Yes
Is Strength and Conditioning re-evaluated? Hell Yes
Are Special Teams cleaned up and prioritized? Yes
Will they go after portal options in November and December instead of January? Yes
Will they ask for workout videos? No
Will they be able to keep top players on the team from portaling? Mostly so
Will they become more aggressive in pushing non-productive players to the Portal? Yes
Will that evaluation include Napier players or will it mostly still focus on the few Mullen players left? Yes, Napier got rid of just about everybody player that I had on my list, regardless if they were a Mullen or Napier kid.
.
.
.
.
Sign Lagway Yes
Hold onto most of the class Not really, but he did bring in POST-NSD 2024 Class adds: D'Antre Robinson, Jameer Grimsley, and Jason Zandamela. All 3 Top 35 in-state players.
Napier is in the process of transitioning a from a Rated PG Coach to the Rated R Coach we need.
Last edited:
