More on....

[Mdfgator]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

what happened in 2020....

For example, the yield curve inverted in 1989, but the 1990 recession did not begin until 13 months later. Similarly, the yield curve inverted in August 2006, but the Great Recession did not begin until December 2007, 16 months later. The yield curve again inverted in May 2019, and it is extremely likely there would have been a recession in late 2020 had the Federal Reserve not engaged in massive amounts of monetary pumping throughout the year to blow a series of bubbles designed to cover up the economic effects of forced lockdowns on the economy.
Now, the yield curve has been inverted since November 2022, but only seven months have passed since then. Experience suggests we could be looking at at least another six months before the effects are clear.


JUST THE TIP>

 

[Mdfgator]

Sheep?

 

[Gator Fever]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

what happened in 2020....

For example, the yield curve inverted in 1989, but the 1990 recession did not begin until 13 months later. Similarly, the yield curve inverted in August 2006, but the Great Recession did not begin until December 2007, 16 months later. The yield curve again inverted in May 2019, and it is extremely likely there would have been a recession in late 2020 had the Federal Reserve not engaged in massive amounts of monetary pumping throughout the year to blow a series of bubbles designed to cover up the economic effects of forced lockdowns on the economy.
Now, the yield curve has been inverted since November 2022, but only seven months have passed since then. Experience suggests we could be looking at at least another six months before the effects are clear.


JUST THE TIP>

Hard to see the 1st Q of a recession not being anywhere from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 but I think its much more likely to be Q3 or Q4 this year for the start.

 

[Mdfgator]

Hard to see the 1st Q of a recession not being anywhere from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 but I think its much more likely to be Q3 or Q4 this year for the start.

Wow, an actual response impressive. I will be honest this cycle has been extremely difficult
To handicap. That makes total sense since what was done in 2020-2021 has never before occurred. If I had to guess it’s going to be later than we think.

 

[Gator Fever]

Wow, an actual response impressive. I will be honest this cycle has been extremely difficult
To handicap. That makes total sense since what was done in 2020-2021 has never before occurred. If I had to guess it’s going to be later than we think.

As far as Dems go in 2024 I think it will be pretty damaging unless it somehow could be avoided or hold off to Q2 2024 being the 1st Q so the recession cant be declared until days before the election. Also if it was only Q3 and Q4 this year the Dems would recover a little bit from it. Anything lasting after Q1 2024 will be pretty damaging.

 

[RussellCasse]

“More on....”​

Yes, Yes you are.

 

[Mdfgator]

As far as Dems go in 2024 I think it will be pretty damaging unless it somehow could be avoided or hold off to Q2 2024 being the 1st Q so the recession cant be declared until days before the election. Also if it was only Q3 and Q4 this year the Dems would recover a little bit from it. Anything lasting after Q1 2024 will be pretty damaging.

The stock market will sniff it out long before they call it