Lane would make UF football fun again
Football Josh Pate on Kiffen and the Florida job
- Thread starter Ldgator
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Not sure who is going to be available, but we should just let things play out. As disappointing as the Miami game was, we're still (as of today) on the same potential trajectory as various scenarios we discussed before the season--ideally getting to the UGA game at 5-2 or 6-1, and winning 2 of the final 5 to get to 7 or 8 wins. We have no idea what those teams are going to look like in the last month of the season--injuries, etc. I think we'll know most of what we need to know by the end of the UCF game if not before, but it's certainly not out of the question that we're 5-2 going into the UGA game and that we beat two of the three of LSU, Ole Miss, and FSU.
If that scenario plays out (maybe it's a 20% chance) and Billy ends the season at 7-5 with wins against two of those three, he's not getting fired. The really awkward situation would be if we go 6-6 and he beats Ole Miss at home. A somewhat less awkward but still uncomfortable situation is that Lane goes 9-3 against a pretty weak schedule and his best team, and doesn't make the playoffs (he really only has two games where they'll have less talent--UGA at home and LSU on the road. Because of the schedule, they may not get in the playoffs at 10-2, because the odds are their only good win would be against an unranked or low ranked OU at home.
The other thing that creates a lot of logistical problems with any coach that makes the playoffs is that they're definitely not available until December 22. Win a game, and it's not until January 2. So you'd miss the early signing period and most of the transfer portal if you pick a coach that wins one playoff game. And if he does win a playoff game, the risk of him staying at Ole Miss goes up, so you could miss all that and still settle for a lesser name.
Point of all these words is that there is a lot of different variables here. I for one am going to withhold judgement on what to do on both decisions for awhile.
If that scenario plays out (maybe it's a 20% chance) and Billy ends the season at 7-5 with wins against two of those three, he's not getting fired. The really awkward situation would be if we go 6-6 and he beats Ole Miss at home. A somewhat less awkward but still uncomfortable situation is that Lane goes 9-3 against a pretty weak schedule and his best team, and doesn't make the playoffs (he really only has two games where they'll have less talent--UGA at home and LSU on the road. Because of the schedule, they may not get in the playoffs at 10-2, because the odds are their only good win would be against an unranked or low ranked OU at home.
The other thing that creates a lot of logistical problems with any coach that makes the playoffs is that they're definitely not available until December 22. Win a game, and it's not until January 2. So you'd miss the early signing period and most of the transfer portal if you pick a coach that wins one playoff game. And if he does win a playoff game, the risk of him staying at Ole Miss goes up, so you could miss all that and still settle for a lesser name.
Point of all these words is that there is a lot of different variables here. I for one am going to withhold judgement on what to do on both decisions for awhile.
How you look in your losses matters. Looking non-competitive in 4-5 games (possibly 3 rivalry games - Miami, UGA, Tenn) should not be acceptable in year 3 even with 7 wins. Those rivals are who we should be benchmarking ourselves against. We've regressed in several critical areas and have continued to look sloppy during games when it comes to play calling and overall discipline.
The eye test has to matter at this point. The infrastructure looks much better but the product on the field hasn't scaled with it.
This^^^
Except for two minor details: no SEC team is getting in the playoffs at 9-3 unless they are in sole possession of third place.
On the other hand, a SEC team that is 10-2 is getting in the playoffs in over 90% of the scenarios. If they are alone in third place at 10-2, it’s 100% guaranteed.
As for Billy’s record: I agree that at 7-5 he keeps his job (not arguing he should but he will) but we will have 0.0 momentum and I think our class will get worse not better.
6-6 and he keeps his job. He’s dead man walking. we will lose a lot in the portal and he pretty much needs to go 9-3 next year.
And what if the unthinkable happens and we get beat by A&M this Saturday. What happens then?
I just hope we don’t hold on to hope that BN is the answer if he finds a way to win 6 but gets blown out by UGA, TN, TX and Ole Miss
I really don't think we have to worry about that. If we get blown out two or three more times, I'm not sure it matters if Billy wins 6 or 7 at that point.
This.
I’ve already told my wife that if things go as expected for ole miss and us, he will try to use that game basically as an interview and try to beat our ass flat. Maybe I’m making too much of it but he strikes me as the type to want to make a statement.
It’s certainly possible he’s changed but the fact remains my concern is a valid one. Out of those listed I would agree Lane is the best choice
You're not wrong. If we get to that game and Ole Miss is 9-1 and we're 4-6 (or Heaven Forbid even worse), then there will be serious buzz in the air as to what that game will mean.
As I said, lots of things can happen (and obviously it's not unthinkable that we have 3-4 losses by the UGA game. ) In that case, the first decision is made (though probably not public.) The second one remains really tricky, because any coach that's in the playoffs will have a very difficult time putting together a roster for 2025, particularly if they win a game.
My point is that I don't see any reason that as of today (9/13) any decisions need to be made, publicly or privately. It'll play out and there's no risk in waiting for 4-6 weeks to see how things are going.
Agree 100% and think Lane will do everything he can to run up the score …I think I’m just done with BN after the UM game. I don’t see any reason to hold onto Billy as he’s shown over and over he’s not elite or even a good coach. His coaching hires continue to not pay off and recruiting is going to take a huge hit this year and next if he stays bc everyone knows he’s a dead man walking. Don’t see any reason to keep him if we can get one of the other big name coaches this year.
IMO, it doesn’t work that way, especially in year three. Won’t disagree that it may not be public, but if we lose any of the next three games (probably our most winnable), I believe Stricklin will have the wheels in motion. Especially with our back half schedule. Anything else would be dereliction of duty.
I actually think if we lose to A&M it’s very possible he doesn’t continue as coach. Almost certainly the case if it’s a blowout. Go ahead and name an interim coach (Robert’s or Gonzo or whoever) and start openly searching for a new HC.
He left Alabama early to go to FAU with their bowl game still to go (this was the Saban/Sarkisian situation)...and he also left FAU before their bowl game to take the Ole Miss job....so there is precedent for him to leave early if he decides to take another job.
He just needs to be named the head coach...let him go as far as possible with Ole Miss...makes him look better to recruits for the future.
The unthinkable? They have just as much talent as us and a better coach. How is that unthinkable?
There's no chance that Ole Miss is going to let their head coach be named head coach at UF and continue to coach their team in the playoffs (this isn't a bowl anymore.) It's also very unlikely that Kiffen would allow the decision to be announced publicly before his season is over, so you still have the same problem with the calendar.
I'm not saying you can't hire Kiffen (or another playoff coach) because of the calendar, but it definitely will negatively impact the HS recruiting a lot and likely the transfer portal. Point being, it pretty much locks down another season (25) with disappointing results. It'll be worse if they eliminate the post spring practice transfer portal, as appears to be the direction they're headed.
(As an aside, they need to change the calendar and get rid of the December signing period now and go to either mid January or the February date again.)
Yeah, with the onset of the 12-team playoff that December date is problematic for coaches.
Agree - 0% chance a coach in the playoff will announce for another school...too many conflicts of interest...if a coach is announced, they should immediately be removed from their current HC position.
Also, I disagree with your aside....ONLY bc of the early enrollment opportunity for the kids....moving SD to Feb would completely eliminate that...it only impacts us right now bc of the coaching situation...but a stable program doesn't have an issue and if you're in the playoffs, that is going to raise your profile with recruits anyway....
Actually, lots of kids did early enrollment before the February signing date in the old days before the December date was added. You can attend a school without signing a national letter of intent. So it shouldn't impact anybody's decision to start school in January.
Yes, McElwain staged a signing ceremony on campus at UF on NSD each February for all of our early enrollees who were already in classes.
What were paying Napier 7.4 mil a year till 2029, that comes out to like 51 mil, so yea Kiffin is damn sure worth more. Don`t know if the higher ups want to dish out 13 to 15 mil a year for the top of the line coach, UF got hustled paying a second tier coach that much, reason I think our AD needs run out of here also, that was just stupid.
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Generally I agree with you but I don't see any evidence that UF has more talent than Ole Miss.
But the talent level is close if you believe the rivals composite but I don't think that matters. This game is going to be all emotion, advantage Gators with the Swamp. If Napier is canned prior to the Ole Miss game or is going to be fired at the end of the season...by the Ole Miss game we will know for sure if he's gone...I hope the Gator fans will still be vocally supporting the Gators but I can already imagine the chants of LANE LANE LANE. Hopefully the Gator players will know that is a chant of support for our players as well in that Kiffin could make them better.
The only thing that is certain is that nothing is certain.
Kiffin has shown that he is always locked in with his current position and would never entertain other opportunities when there are still games to be played.....
In a stunning move, Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban announced on Monday that former USC and Washington head coach Steve Sarkisian will replace Kiffin as Alabama's offensive coordinator and play-caller for the title game at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, on Jan. 9. Jan 2, 2017
That said, if it got out that he was going to come to Gainesville, are you saying that Ole Miss wouldn't let him coach in the playoffs? I know it's unlikely that Kiffin announces it because that wouldn't be the most loyal thing to do, but if Ole Miss had a chance in the playoffs do you think their fan base would tell Kiffin to pound rocks?
Just going by the composite team talent rankings (again this is just on paper)... #12 and #20.
#2 - Georgia
#4 - Texas
#7 - Texas A&M
#9 - LSU
#12 - Florida
#13 - Florida State
#14 - Miami
#17 - Tennessee
#20 - Ole Miss
#24 - Kentucky
#33 - UCF
#34 - Mississippi State
N/A - Samford
I'll tell you this, One of my students is getting recruited by W-W right now and I actually went with the family to check it out (we are longtime friends) and LL created a juggernaut there. They are a D-3 program that looks and runs like a D-1 program. State of the art facilities, locker rooms, field.... and the community/school loves them. Massive tailgates with tons of support. LL left W-W WINNERS.
Hell... I would take fun. The wins will come. I can't bear to watch boring Billy ball.
Did not know that - thank you!
I guess that eliminates the drama of "flipping on signing day"
If accurate that should tell us all we need to know about the two coaches. Coaching matters!
Ok. Devil's Advocate, because I actually want Kiffin and think he is the better coach, but....that talent composite is for 2024, and since Lane hasn't played Miami, I am not sure what conclusions we can draw from the #12 vs #20. Lane still needs to play a real game with that team.
We should know more after Saturday though. Also, our #12 is heavily weighted to the more recent classes as Billy doesn't have 4 recruiting classes yet, so players like Lagway, McCray, etc....haven't factored in the results we have seen as much yet.
Unfortunately Lane doesn't play a serious opponent until the middle of October.
Let me make sure I understood your post correctly:
Are you saying UF should announce him today and let him coach out the season at Ole Miss?
Yes. Think about it for a second--Ole Miss, which has never even been to the SEC championship game makes the playoffs, has its coach announce after the regular season is over that he's leaving Ole Miss to go to Florida. Why in the world would Ole Miss let him coach the team after that point? It would never happen.
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