Is 2021 Mullen’s best shot to win the SEC?
First of all, I’m not trolling. Having explored the construction of SEC champion teams for a long time now, I must admit that I’m a bit intrigued by the circumstances we see unfolding early on in this 2021 season. This may seem surprising coming from me, given my longstanding critical analysis of Dan Mullen’s recruiting efforts. And to be sure, I still believe that is no coincidence that every SEC champion since at least the early 1990s has featured at least one of a top-5 recruiting class or a 5-star QB. While I’m not suggesting UF will win the SEC this fall, there are some mitigating factors, which together, could make 2021 Dan Mullen’s best shot to defy history.
Factor #1 – The Transfer portal – We’ve known from the start that the portal would be a roster-building factor to some degree, but we still don’t know where the ceiling is. What we do know, is that some positions on this Gator team would be in a precarious position without it. The portal has added 3 players to the defensive interior rotation, standout Brenton Cox to the edge, starting WR Justin Shorter, starting OL Stewart Reese, and more.
Factor #2 – Covid-19 Eligibility Exemptions – Speaking of Stewart Reese, he’s one of several veteran Gators who are in their free “super senior” 6th year of eligibility, granted by the NCAA due to the epidemic (I still think it was a dumb idea). Others include starting interior DLs Antonio Valentino and Daquan Newkirk. Essentially this adds many grown men (including at least 4 starters) to the roster with extensive playing experience, providing a benefit to the portal that isn’t normal.
Factor #3 – Anthony Richardson – Look, we all need to pump the breaks a bit, because he has nowhere to go but down right now from an expectations standpoint. But even with a dose of reasonableness, the kid looks really, really good. As one who has suggested that the “next Dak” is probably Mullen’s only shot to get over the hump, this kid is interesting to say the least. And yes, he’s only a second-year player, but then again, let’s not forget 2007… or perhaps more applicably, 2012 in College Station. I’m not suggesting Richardson is Tebow or Manziel. I’m merely saying that IF he is as good as he looks so far, there is precedent for that talent becoming a huge factor right away.
Factor #4 – The SEC looks weak and vulnerable – Georgia may very well beat UF, but they have a lot to prove, and here we are again: more QB drama in Athens. LSU isn’t exactly storming out of the gate and neither is Texas A&M. Auburn and South Carolina both have new coaches with plenty of work to do. Tennessee looks like the apocalyptic subject of a Marvel’s What If episode. And then there’s Alabama. Yes, they are awesome. Yes, they are the rightful favorite, but let me remind you. They don’t win it all every year, and they’re breaking in a new QB. You just can’t ask for a much easier conference landscape than this.
Why is 2021 any better than 2022?
If UF comes up short this fall, attrition will be a huge factor to monitor in the off-season. To understand why, here’s a list of players who could be gone:
Offense:
RB Malik Davis – 5th year player
RB Dameon Pierce – 4th year player looks as NFL ready as he’s likely to become
WR Justin Shorter – 4th year player who could go or stay
WR Jacob Copeland – 4th year player could be ready to make the NFL leap
WR Rick Wells – 6th year player will be gone
WR Jordan Pouncey – 5th year player
TE Kemore Gamble – 5th year player
OL – Richard Gouraighe – 4th year player could go or stay
OL – Jean Delance – 6th year player will be gone.
OL - Stewart Reese – 6th year player will be gone
Defense:
DL Zach Carter – 5th year player will almost certainly go pro
DL Antonio Valentino – 6th year player will be gone
DL Daquan Newkirk – 6th year player will be gone
DL Tryone Truesdell – 5th year player could stay or go
Edge – Brenton Cox – 4th year player will probably go pro
LB Jeremiah Moon – 6th year player will be gone
LB Ventrell Miller – 5th year player could stay or go
S Trey Dean – 4th year player could stay or go
CB – Kair Elam – 3rd year player is widely projected to go pro
Keep in mind that every one of these except for Elam are 4th, 5th, or 6th year players. Now ask yourself: Which current juniors not named Kair Elam look like candidates to become early departures for the NFL?
…yeah, see, there aren’t many at all and that’s the problem. Maybe Bogle emerges, but there aren’t a lot of Mullen recruits who look primed to break out big in 2021, other than the big fish (Richardson) that we already discussed. The fact is, this 2021 team has loads of experience in the lineup and may represent Mullen’s best-case combination of veteran talent, QB potential, and ease of schedule.
Now, I get it if you’re one who assumes guys like Bowman will break out or that Shorter will stick around for a shot to play with a veteran Anthony Richarson… and you may be right. Some of the youngsters will emerge by 2022. But like I said, this is a factor to watch for next year. If it leans the wrong way, the team could rely on an excessive quantity of unproven players. Also, keep in mind that this team could be adjusting to a new defensive coordinator and OL coach next fall. But the continuity is there now. The QB could be ready now, the immediate schedule could be as easy as it looks, and this could be the best chance to capitalize on the seniority which Mullen obviously values. Even with AR back next fall, it’s hard to say if those other factors will be as well.
My take: It’s hard for me to pick UF at this point in the East, let alone in the SEC. With Richardson in the game, as of today, I’d predict a 10-2 finish with losses to UGA (I’d give them a 40% shot to win) and Alabama (25% shot to win). But, IF Mullen lets AR rip and IF AR is the next great Gator QB, anything is possible. Remember, they can lose to Alabama this week as long as they beat UGA and tie for 1st with the dawgs in the East. That would set up a scenario where they’d just have to beat Alabama in a rematch.
Do I see that happening? Honestly, no, but not just because of the uncertainty at QB. I don’t believe in Grantham at this point, especially given the circumstances. In a year when we’re hoping to see better communication/scheme/coverage in the secondary, 8 of the 11 DBs from @Realmarkkern ‘s snap count list are in their 1st or 2nd year with the program. That group has good promise, but they’ll probably take some lumps this year. It may not show up as much against lesser teams, but I expect it to be costly down the road. Who knows though, maybe the DL can mitigate that as well.
Either way, I’m already on record in suggesting that 2022 should be the line in the sand for Dan Mullen at UF. The emergence of Anthony Richardson could move that back another year in the eyes of those who make such decisions, but I’m not so sure that’s a good thing in the bigger picture. Either way, I hope Mullen makes history.
First of all, I’m not trolling. Having explored the construction of SEC champion teams for a long time now, I must admit that I’m a bit intrigued by the circumstances we see unfolding early on in this 2021 season. This may seem surprising coming from me, given my longstanding critical analysis of Dan Mullen’s recruiting efforts. And to be sure, I still believe that is no coincidence that every SEC champion since at least the early 1990s has featured at least one of a top-5 recruiting class or a 5-star QB. While I’m not suggesting UF will win the SEC this fall, there are some mitigating factors, which together, could make 2021 Dan Mullen’s best shot to defy history.
Factor #1 – The Transfer portal – We’ve known from the start that the portal would be a roster-building factor to some degree, but we still don’t know where the ceiling is. What we do know, is that some positions on this Gator team would be in a precarious position without it. The portal has added 3 players to the defensive interior rotation, standout Brenton Cox to the edge, starting WR Justin Shorter, starting OL Stewart Reese, and more.
Factor #2 – Covid-19 Eligibility Exemptions – Speaking of Stewart Reese, he’s one of several veteran Gators who are in their free “super senior” 6th year of eligibility, granted by the NCAA due to the epidemic (I still think it was a dumb idea). Others include starting interior DLs Antonio Valentino and Daquan Newkirk. Essentially this adds many grown men (including at least 4 starters) to the roster with extensive playing experience, providing a benefit to the portal that isn’t normal.
Factor #3 – Anthony Richardson – Look, we all need to pump the breaks a bit, because he has nowhere to go but down right now from an expectations standpoint. But even with a dose of reasonableness, the kid looks really, really good. As one who has suggested that the “next Dak” is probably Mullen’s only shot to get over the hump, this kid is interesting to say the least. And yes, he’s only a second-year player, but then again, let’s not forget 2007… or perhaps more applicably, 2012 in College Station. I’m not suggesting Richardson is Tebow or Manziel. I’m merely saying that IF he is as good as he looks so far, there is precedent for that talent becoming a huge factor right away.
Factor #4 – The SEC looks weak and vulnerable – Georgia may very well beat UF, but they have a lot to prove, and here we are again: more QB drama in Athens. LSU isn’t exactly storming out of the gate and neither is Texas A&M. Auburn and South Carolina both have new coaches with plenty of work to do. Tennessee looks like the apocalyptic subject of a Marvel’s What If episode. And then there’s Alabama. Yes, they are awesome. Yes, they are the rightful favorite, but let me remind you. They don’t win it all every year, and they’re breaking in a new QB. You just can’t ask for a much easier conference landscape than this.
Why is 2021 any better than 2022?
If UF comes up short this fall, attrition will be a huge factor to monitor in the off-season. To understand why, here’s a list of players who could be gone:
Offense:
RB Malik Davis – 5th year player
RB Dameon Pierce – 4th year player looks as NFL ready as he’s likely to become
WR Justin Shorter – 4th year player who could go or stay
WR Jacob Copeland – 4th year player could be ready to make the NFL leap
WR Rick Wells – 6th year player will be gone
WR Jordan Pouncey – 5th year player
TE Kemore Gamble – 5th year player
OL – Richard Gouraighe – 4th year player could go or stay
OL – Jean Delance – 6th year player will be gone.
OL - Stewart Reese – 6th year player will be gone
Defense:
DL Zach Carter – 5th year player will almost certainly go pro
DL Antonio Valentino – 6th year player will be gone
DL Daquan Newkirk – 6th year player will be gone
DL Tryone Truesdell – 5th year player could stay or go
Edge – Brenton Cox – 4th year player will probably go pro
LB Jeremiah Moon – 6th year player will be gone
LB Ventrell Miller – 5th year player could stay or go
S Trey Dean – 4th year player could stay or go
CB – Kair Elam – 3rd year player is widely projected to go pro
Keep in mind that every one of these except for Elam are 4th, 5th, or 6th year players. Now ask yourself: Which current juniors not named Kair Elam look like candidates to become early departures for the NFL?
…yeah, see, there aren’t many at all and that’s the problem. Maybe Bogle emerges, but there aren’t a lot of Mullen recruits who look primed to break out big in 2021, other than the big fish (Richardson) that we already discussed. The fact is, this 2021 team has loads of experience in the lineup and may represent Mullen’s best-case combination of veteran talent, QB potential, and ease of schedule.
Now, I get it if you’re one who assumes guys like Bowman will break out or that Shorter will stick around for a shot to play with a veteran Anthony Richarson… and you may be right. Some of the youngsters will emerge by 2022. But like I said, this is a factor to watch for next year. If it leans the wrong way, the team could rely on an excessive quantity of unproven players. Also, keep in mind that this team could be adjusting to a new defensive coordinator and OL coach next fall. But the continuity is there now. The QB could be ready now, the immediate schedule could be as easy as it looks, and this could be the best chance to capitalize on the seniority which Mullen obviously values. Even with AR back next fall, it’s hard to say if those other factors will be as well.
My take: It’s hard for me to pick UF at this point in the East, let alone in the SEC. With Richardson in the game, as of today, I’d predict a 10-2 finish with losses to UGA (I’d give them a 40% shot to win) and Alabama (25% shot to win). But, IF Mullen lets AR rip and IF AR is the next great Gator QB, anything is possible. Remember, they can lose to Alabama this week as long as they beat UGA and tie for 1st with the dawgs in the East. That would set up a scenario where they’d just have to beat Alabama in a rematch.
Do I see that happening? Honestly, no, but not just because of the uncertainty at QB. I don’t believe in Grantham at this point, especially given the circumstances. In a year when we’re hoping to see better communication/scheme/coverage in the secondary, 8 of the 11 DBs from @Realmarkkern ‘s snap count list are in their 1st or 2nd year with the program. That group has good promise, but they’ll probably take some lumps this year. It may not show up as much against lesser teams, but I expect it to be costly down the road. Who knows though, maybe the DL can mitigate that as well.
Either way, I’m already on record in suggesting that 2022 should be the line in the sand for Dan Mullen at UF. The emergence of Anthony Richardson could move that back another year in the eyes of those who make such decisions, but I’m not so sure that’s a good thing in the bigger picture. Either way, I hope Mullen makes history.
