Heather Ditz, I mean Dinich, Stirring the Pot
- Thread starter Ghost of Spaceheater
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Somebody poke this moron's eyes out.
She relies too much on the 'eye test'.
"If Alabama loses to Florida -- a scenario which seems about as likely as Nick Saban losing his way home -- the SEC should be out. Florida has two losses and hasn't looked like a top 10 team in November, let alone a top four team."
She relies too much on the 'eye test'.
"If Alabama loses to Florida -- a scenario which seems about as likely as Nick Saban losing his way home -- the SEC should be out. Florida has two losses and hasn't looked like a top 10 team in November, let alone a top four team."
Her article is fair and on point. She isn't stirring the pot, nor is she suggesting that Ohio State deserves to be in. She is giving a realistic scenario of that "possibility" given unlikely upsets in the conference title games.
What happened this year in college football is that too many SEC programs are down. I blame it on poor overall quarterback play in the league: i.e, Florida, LSU, Georgia, Auburn, etc have all had problems at the position. Recently, there have been at a minimum of two to three dominant sec teams per season by the end of the year that could have vyed for a playoff spot (i.e, Florida, Georgia, and Alabama in 2012).
Because that didn't happen in the SEC this season and also because the SEC didn't win the college national championship in the last two years, there is now a power vacuum in college football. That's why there are so many multiple ACC (i.e, Notre Dame, North Carolina, etc.) and Big Ten (i.e Ohio St, Iowa, Mich St, etc.) teams vying for a playoff spot should a favorite like Clemson or Alabama fall.
Note: Notre Dame should be considered a de facto ACC team because the irish play 6 ACC teams per season as well as in other sports like basketball.
Because that didn't happen in the SEC this season and also because the SEC didn't win the college national championship in the last two years, there is now a power vacuum in college football. That's why there are so many multiple ACC (i.e, Notre Dame, North Carolina, etc.) and Big Ten (i.e Ohio St, Iowa, Mich St, etc.) teams vying for a playoff spot should a favorite like Clemson or Alabama fall.
Note: Notre Dame should be considered a de facto ACC team because the irish play 6 ACC teams per season as well as in other sports like basketball.
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Disagree!
Florida has a much higher strength of schedule than the buckeyes. Florida's best win is Ole Miss which is significantly better than OSU's Michigan win. And if it still means anything anymore (at least the computer polls cared), Florida has also more quality wins over teams with winning records than Ohio St:
Ole Miss (9-3)
Georgia (9-3)
Tennessee (8-4)
And if Florida does the unthinkable and beats an 11-2 Alabama, that feat (a potential 4th win over a winning team from a P5 conference) should triumph over whatever Stanford or OSU (at home eating cheeseburgers) does. Florida would deserve to go in as the SEC champion!
btw, HD's scenario fails if you look at things objectively and not subjectively! The play-off spots should still be based on what have you done to earn it and not necessarily a better record with a weak schedule. As for the 11-1 OSU, they have defeated only two quality opponents: 9-3 Michigan and 7-5 Penn St. If that is a better resume than Florida's than everyone must be blind.
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The 'eye test' is stupid only because analysts never seem to apply it both ways. If a team wins a game 49-42 against an inferior opponent no one says "wow their defense is bad!" They talk about how good the offense is and praise their QB's, skill players, etc. But on the other end if a team wins a game 20-14 they're docked major points in the eye test category.
Sagarin has Florida's strength of schedule at 72.29 (46th). That's better than Ohio State's 70.32( 61st) or FSUs 71.26( 57th) but probably not enough to overcome 2 losses. The collapse of the SEC East undermines any argument that a 2-loss SEC East should be in over any 1-loss P5 team.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
I think the targeting rules are what did the SEC in.
The SEC was accustomed to a physical style of play, where defenders were permitted to be rougher. The new rules undermined that so that defense no longer wins championships. Now, having a top QB is more important than ever.
The SEC was accustomed to a physical style of play, where defenders were permitted to be rougher. The new rules undermined that so that defense no longer wins championships. Now, having a top QB is more important than ever.
Ohio State's paltry two quality wins (see above) is insufficient when compared to other teams with more losses. OSU is like a mid-major with only one major win.
For example, FSU (10-2) has quality wins over Florida (10-2), Louisville (7-5), NC ST (7-5) & Miami (8-4). This resume is much better than OSU's; however, neither FSU nor OSU is a conference champion which the committee places a high premium to qualify for the playoffs.
While the SEC-W is much stronger (six winning teams) than the SEC-E (three winning teams), the SEC-E is very comparable to many other P5 conferences that have conference championships:
- Acc Atlantic & Coastal (each have 4 winning teams)
- Big Ten West (3 winning teams), Big Ten East (4 winning teams)
- Pac12-N (4 winning teams), PAC12-S (3 winning teams).
For whatever deficiency that was on Florida's SEC-E schedule, the Gators more than made it up by picking up a quality win over an SEC-W team in Ole Miss (9-3). The Rebels are the 2nd place team in the SEC-W. If UF wins the SEC championship, that would be just another quality win in college football's best conference!
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This is 100% correct and it's wrong. The committee has been placing more importance on a 45-38 victory then say a 17-10 victory if everything else is equal.
Right. And the funny part is the 45-38 victory should be more concerning when judging teams. In a close game (which you're likely gonna be in in a playoff setting) defense is what makes the difference. So if you have a bad defense and can't stop inferior teams that's a bigger red flag than not putting up some arbitrary number of points they think you should be scoring.
They are not rated as highly as the Florida win. However, because they have a record over 0.500 (a winning record), the committee looks at it like a quality win. What they don't look at is how many winning teams did these particular teams also defeat? That is how you would rank 'quality' teams.
That is what a computer algorithm takes in to account as well as things like margin of victory, was the game H/A, SOS, etc.
What drove me crazy is when Notre Dame was ranked very highly because of their two wins over non-P5 teams like Navy & Temple. Who else did these particular teams beat and how many overall quality wins did these teams beat also.
I find this play-off committee terribly biased because they each seem to have their own agenda. I like to see an objective factor put in the polls as well like the 4-5 computer polls that were used in the BCS selection.
Big Ten football is like watching 'midget' football. The jury is still out on the whole Big Ten and some other conferences.
Then Ole Miss (9-3), Georgia (9-3),and Tennessee (8-4) are not quality wins.
What makes you think Ole Miss, UGa, or UT are any good? Ole Miss lost to Memphis, Georgia is terrible, and UT is middle of the road. They are decent teams, but not great just like UL, NCSt, and UM.
One can have their own opinions. But facts are another matter.
Here is an average of 107 different rankings systems
Ole Miss #13
Tennessee #23
UGA #31
Miami #39
Louisville #45
NC State #51
Surely even a FSU fan can see the differences?
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Ole Miss has wins over the following winning teams: Alabama (11-1), LSU, Miss St, Texas A&M. A surging Arkansas team had wins over LSU, Ole Miss and made these teams seem worse than they really are. That's what can happen in a quality league like the SEC - some lower teams can still improve.
Georgia's (9-3) nine wins came against teams with below 0.500 record including Georgia Tech (3-9) who defeated FSU. Because of this, UGA fired the long time ex-FSU assistant after fifteen years there in Athens.
Tennessee's (8-4) best win came against Georgia. The vols played a game this year where they almost defeated several leading play-off candidates but to only lose in the end by merely one possession: i.e, Oklahoma, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, etc.
Except for the UF win, Florida's quality wins are probably better than any of FSU's. (See MJ's post).
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Its all bullshit. How was Michigan passing the "eye test" so highly before last week? They needed miracles to beat Minnesota and Indiana? We are right back to the way it was pre-BCS, big name programs get different criteria than others. Just because Harbaugh acts like a child on the sideline and puts on a show doesnt mean they should ignore the fact that Michigan has looked horrible since their win over Northwestern in early October.
Also, the author is an idiot, Stanford lost to a middle of the road Big 10 team in Northwestern. One loss OSU over Stanford, easily.
??? Ole Miss, UGA, and UT are all better than UL, NC St and UM, you can't be serious.
Sagarin has the SEC East as the weakest division in the P5:
CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%
1 SEC-WEST (A) = 83.34 84.02 ( 1) 7 83.78 ( 1)
2 BIG 12 (A) = 79.23 78.35 ( 2) 10 79.19 ( 2)
3 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 78.66 77.56 ( 3) 6 78.31 ( 3)
4 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 77.87 77.20 ( 4) 6 77.47 ( 4)
5 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 76.39 76.53 ( 5) 7 76.44 ( 5)
6 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 75.79 76.06 ( 6) 7 75.96 ( 6)
7 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 75.09 75.73 ( 7) 7 75.33 ( 7)
8 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 74.58 74.28 ( 9) 7 74.44 ( 8)
9 SEC-EAST (A) = 73.85 74.29 ( 8) 7 74.15 ( 9)
Re-read my post again. We are sending a particular team to a playoff not a whole half of a conference.
Your fan base must not have much experience in qualifying for NCAA basketball. When comparing two or more teams to a play-off, you look at the whole body of work for each team. What conference that you are in does not matter. It comes down to what you have done.
Hoisted on me own petard! Notice how the last three places are very numerically close. And how far the SEC West is above even the second place division.
So, even with all that, to this point Florida's SOS is better than FSU's SOS. Had FSU played the two best teams in the other division, then that might not be the case. At least, to this point in time. By Saturday night, we will have played the three best teams in the West.
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