FSU 2021:
-Mike Norvell's 2nd year (3-6 in Year 1)
-FSU went 5-7 in 2021, with an embarassing home loss to Jacksonville State
-First 2 recruiting classes rankings: 22 and 23
UF 2023:
-Billy Napier's 2nd year (6-7 in Year 1)
-UF trending towards 5-7 in 2023, with an embarassing home loss to Arkansas
-First 2 recruiting classes rankings: 18 and 13
FSU's approach to solve:
-signed a small 2022 class of 17, ranked #20 on Composite rankings. Only 2 Top 100 signees, 1 (Sam McCall) of them quickly transferred out
-prioritized the portal and brought in 14 transfers that changed the overall outlook of the team. Mycah Pittman, Deuce Spann and Johnny Wilson were brought in to improve the Receiving Corps and they combined for over 80 catches and over 1300 yards. Trey Benson came in and ran for 990 yards. Jaz Turrentine and D'Mitri Emanuel started on their 2022 OL.. Non defense they added Jared Verse (48 tackles, 17 tfl, 9 sacks), Tatum Bethune (84 tackles, 9.5 tfl, 3 sacks), Greedy Vance (3 ints).
FSU's 2022 Result:
-10-3 (including wins over UF and LSU)
-Final Ranking: #11
My thoughts:
Some of these points may closely resemble what I posted on Sunday . https://florida.forums.rivals.com/t...lass-needs-to-land.127279/page-2#post-2718143 While there are similarities in these 2 scenarios, there are also differences worth pointing out. FSU already had a more refined Portal process that had been executed in previous cycles to bring in guys like Jordan Travis, Dillon Gibbons, Jermaine Johnson, and Fabian Lovett. Contrast that with UF who has had a sub-optimal approach in regards to the Portal in the past. Obviously that needs to change moving forward. UF also looks to have other issues besides talent (schemes, S&C) that impact the quality of their play and those need to be prioritized and addressed as I laid out in this thread: https://florida.forums.rivals.com/threads/my-thoughts.127096/.
One concern is the advantages of the Portal are more known and accepted now than perhaps it was 2 years ago, so the market may have a bit more competition and also a larger % of players have used up their 1 free portal move, so there is no tolerance for missteps in the process. The process needs to be quick. If it doesn't work out for some then so be it, with fewer years of eligibility left than a recruit they will not be a 85 man burden for long. While I detailed the FSU successes in the Portal above, there were quite a few failures. Don't be afraid to fail. I say this thinking this advice could be utilized across the team (throwing downfield, play to win by more instead of going conservative). Some still haven't evolved their mindset away from the Counters ear, where each counter must have maximum impact as such one year guys are a waste. That no longer is true. In fact one year guys provide the advantage of servicing a temporary need and then moving on, allowing you to use that spot on a newer need.
On the flip side UF has recruited better than FSU did going into these 2 scenarios and also looks to have a better class directly following the scenario (FSU 2022 class , UF 2024 class), even if a couple more decommits were to happen. UF also has in this class a potentially transformation QB in DJ Lagway. I don't think anybody would describe AJ Duffy in the same manner. So, it's possible we may not need to add quite as many as playmakers as FSU did, but the presumes those other issues are dealt with and mitigated.
I'm sure it's natural to ask why can't we have a highly ranked class and a large high quality portal class. Two reasons: 1) the 85 man limit and 2) Money. After Jordan Herman's departure I have us somewhere around 75/76 possible returnees. So if you want to add a big class (unlikely to be ranked high otherwise) of say 25, you would have to trim 15ish just to sign the class and you haven't even created room to take a single portal player and get any of the immediate help approach described above. Sure everyone can look at the roster and pick a dozen or so guys beside the 5 seniors who are either leaving or you want to leave: Marshall, Princely, W.Norman, Chackaio, Pouncey, Kamari, Weston, Simons, Humphries, Q.Ivory, Jakobi J., Saavinea. Some of these guys ain't leaving, but others will to replace them. Still it's going to be difficult (perhaps impossible) to see 25+ leave to create room for 25 signees and 10 portal players. So, a more reasonable approach looks like 18 signees and 10 portal players (after 5 seniors roughly 17-18 others also leave).
Why is Money an issue? Because of an instability tax. That's the incremental amount you have to pay for recruits, portal guys and retaining current players because the team is not winning and the Head Coach is either on the hot seat or at least approaching it. So, it's easy to say go out and buy Seaton and Mincey without knowing the tax, which could differ depending on the recruit or the amount now needed for these other pieces which will impact the Seaton/Mincey money. We perhaps though we had enough for a top class and a few good pieces from the Portal, the amount needed is likely to have gone up because of our season. This reality forces us to prioritize and where we need to act like Adults an deal with the reality of the choices. To me this means prioritizing winning in 2024 and that means shifting some Class funds to Portal side and these de-commitments allow for this to happen. Not all recruits are the same, with 3 LB's already in the class, Waller becomes less of a priority than say Nasir Johnson when we need interior DT, especially if we have Will Norman concerns. Nasir we may want to replace the other perhaps not. Obviously holding onto Lagway is a must because we do not have a QB of the future on the team. Amaris Williams (presumably an edge) has tremendous upside due to his athleticism as seen by him also playing RB. Having said that we have TJ Searcy and Kamran James listed as edges, with Boone presumably returning. I realize everyone wants to start "stacking" but in some cases that is a luxury we don't have when there are positions that right now are "holes" on the team like OL, WR and DT.
We have to maximize the opportunity and that may mean using a scalpel and not a hammer. I'll keep saying until I'm blue in the face, we need to stop focusing (at least temporarily) on recruiting rankings. It feels like since we can't win enough of these games we then focus on this other game (recruiting rankings) to make us feel better. If Napier gets fired many of these top recruits will leave, we can't highly invest (not the same as not invest at all) in assets that have lagged return rates (2025/2026 more so than 2024). I'm sure FSU fans complained about their 2022 class and wanted to fire Norvell. If we think it's hard to recruit now, wait until you see this Spring for the 2025 class, where we may not be able to show progress until next September but almost everyone will be committed before the end of July. This portal approach will need to be perfected sooner or later.
In some respect, this is almost like a transitional class, we need to portal to stabilize the program (8-9ish wins) and once it stabilizes we can shoot for a great class due to the reduction in the instability tax. Basically what we should have been done in late 2021. Thankfully this smaller class is likely to have a ton of talent in it including a transformational QB.
-Mike Norvell's 2nd year (3-6 in Year 1)
-FSU went 5-7 in 2021, with an embarassing home loss to Jacksonville State
-First 2 recruiting classes rankings: 22 and 23
UF 2023:
-Billy Napier's 2nd year (6-7 in Year 1)
-UF trending towards 5-7 in 2023, with an embarassing home loss to Arkansas
-First 2 recruiting classes rankings: 18 and 13
FSU's approach to solve:
-signed a small 2022 class of 17, ranked #20 on Composite rankings. Only 2 Top 100 signees, 1 (Sam McCall) of them quickly transferred out
-prioritized the portal and brought in 14 transfers that changed the overall outlook of the team. Mycah Pittman, Deuce Spann and Johnny Wilson were brought in to improve the Receiving Corps and they combined for over 80 catches and over 1300 yards. Trey Benson came in and ran for 990 yards. Jaz Turrentine and D'Mitri Emanuel started on their 2022 OL.. Non defense they added Jared Verse (48 tackles, 17 tfl, 9 sacks), Tatum Bethune (84 tackles, 9.5 tfl, 3 sacks), Greedy Vance (3 ints).
FSU's 2022 Result:
-10-3 (including wins over UF and LSU)
-Final Ranking: #11
My thoughts:
Some of these points may closely resemble what I posted on Sunday . https://florida.forums.rivals.com/t...lass-needs-to-land.127279/page-2#post-2718143 While there are similarities in these 2 scenarios, there are also differences worth pointing out. FSU already had a more refined Portal process that had been executed in previous cycles to bring in guys like Jordan Travis, Dillon Gibbons, Jermaine Johnson, and Fabian Lovett. Contrast that with UF who has had a sub-optimal approach in regards to the Portal in the past. Obviously that needs to change moving forward. UF also looks to have other issues besides talent (schemes, S&C) that impact the quality of their play and those need to be prioritized and addressed as I laid out in this thread: https://florida.forums.rivals.com/threads/my-thoughts.127096/.
One concern is the advantages of the Portal are more known and accepted now than perhaps it was 2 years ago, so the market may have a bit more competition and also a larger % of players have used up their 1 free portal move, so there is no tolerance for missteps in the process. The process needs to be quick. If it doesn't work out for some then so be it, with fewer years of eligibility left than a recruit they will not be a 85 man burden for long. While I detailed the FSU successes in the Portal above, there were quite a few failures. Don't be afraid to fail. I say this thinking this advice could be utilized across the team (throwing downfield, play to win by more instead of going conservative). Some still haven't evolved their mindset away from the Counters ear, where each counter must have maximum impact as such one year guys are a waste. That no longer is true. In fact one year guys provide the advantage of servicing a temporary need and then moving on, allowing you to use that spot on a newer need.
On the flip side UF has recruited better than FSU did going into these 2 scenarios and also looks to have a better class directly following the scenario (FSU 2022 class , UF 2024 class), even if a couple more decommits were to happen. UF also has in this class a potentially transformation QB in DJ Lagway. I don't think anybody would describe AJ Duffy in the same manner. So, it's possible we may not need to add quite as many as playmakers as FSU did, but the presumes those other issues are dealt with and mitigated.
I'm sure it's natural to ask why can't we have a highly ranked class and a large high quality portal class. Two reasons: 1) the 85 man limit and 2) Money. After Jordan Herman's departure I have us somewhere around 75/76 possible returnees. So if you want to add a big class (unlikely to be ranked high otherwise) of say 25, you would have to trim 15ish just to sign the class and you haven't even created room to take a single portal player and get any of the immediate help approach described above. Sure everyone can look at the roster and pick a dozen or so guys beside the 5 seniors who are either leaving or you want to leave: Marshall, Princely, W.Norman, Chackaio, Pouncey, Kamari, Weston, Simons, Humphries, Q.Ivory, Jakobi J., Saavinea. Some of these guys ain't leaving, but others will to replace them. Still it's going to be difficult (perhaps impossible) to see 25+ leave to create room for 25 signees and 10 portal players. So, a more reasonable approach looks like 18 signees and 10 portal players (after 5 seniors roughly 17-18 others also leave).
Why is Money an issue? Because of an instability tax. That's the incremental amount you have to pay for recruits, portal guys and retaining current players because the team is not winning and the Head Coach is either on the hot seat or at least approaching it. So, it's easy to say go out and buy Seaton and Mincey without knowing the tax, which could differ depending on the recruit or the amount now needed for these other pieces which will impact the Seaton/Mincey money. We perhaps though we had enough for a top class and a few good pieces from the Portal, the amount needed is likely to have gone up because of our season. This reality forces us to prioritize and where we need to act like Adults an deal with the reality of the choices. To me this means prioritizing winning in 2024 and that means shifting some Class funds to Portal side and these de-commitments allow for this to happen. Not all recruits are the same, with 3 LB's already in the class, Waller becomes less of a priority than say Nasir Johnson when we need interior DT, especially if we have Will Norman concerns. Nasir we may want to replace the other perhaps not. Obviously holding onto Lagway is a must because we do not have a QB of the future on the team. Amaris Williams (presumably an edge) has tremendous upside due to his athleticism as seen by him also playing RB. Having said that we have TJ Searcy and Kamran James listed as edges, with Boone presumably returning. I realize everyone wants to start "stacking" but in some cases that is a luxury we don't have when there are positions that right now are "holes" on the team like OL, WR and DT.
We have to maximize the opportunity and that may mean using a scalpel and not a hammer. I'll keep saying until I'm blue in the face, we need to stop focusing (at least temporarily) on recruiting rankings. It feels like since we can't win enough of these games we then focus on this other game (recruiting rankings) to make us feel better. If Napier gets fired many of these top recruits will leave, we can't highly invest (not the same as not invest at all) in assets that have lagged return rates (2025/2026 more so than 2024). I'm sure FSU fans complained about their 2022 class and wanted to fire Norvell. If we think it's hard to recruit now, wait until you see this Spring for the 2025 class, where we may not be able to show progress until next September but almost everyone will be committed before the end of July. This portal approach will need to be perfected sooner or later.
In some respect, this is almost like a transitional class, we need to portal to stabilize the program (8-9ish wins) and once it stabilizes we can shoot for a great class due to the reduction in the instability tax. Basically what we should have been done in late 2021. Thankfully this smaller class is likely to have a ton of talent in it including a transformational QB.
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