Correlation between returning OL starters & offensive success Very Low

[Jeff from Jax]

Offensive line starts returning? Only has a correlation of 0.153 to offensive success.

On offense the highest correlation — meaning the one that provides the most predictive power — is receiving yards - 0.324 (where 0.0 means no correlation at all and 1.0 means a perfect one-to-one relationship), but it’s not hard to think of factors that could muddy the waters.

An easy one is that losing a good quarterback could negate the advantage of having a lot of receivers coming back.

Returning passing yards is second, by the way, with a correlation of 0.234.

Article goes on to say "...age is probably more important than starting experience along the offensive line. Replacing a true senior with a redshirt junior as Florida is at left tackle likely isn’t a recipe for a dramatic falloff. Stone Forsythe has had plenty of time to mature physically (losing bad weight and building muscle in his case), so the Gators aren’t rolling the dice on a younger player who may or may not be ready yet."

I had to think about this article for a bit, but I am starting to agree with it.
https://www.gatorcountry.com/featur...e-might-not-be-as-big-a-concern-as-you-think/

 

[Gator Fever]

Offensive line starts returning? Only has a correlation of 0.153 to offensive success.

On offense the highest correlation — meaning the one that provides the most predictive power — is receiving yards - 0.324 (where 0.0 means no correlation at all and 1.0 means a perfect one-to-one relationship), but it’s not hard to think of factors that could muddy the waters.

An easy one is that losing a good quarterback could negate the advantage of having a lot of receivers coming back.

Returning passing yards is second, by the way, with a correlation of 0.234.

Article goes on to say "...age is probably more important than starting experience along the offensive line. Replacing a true senior with a redshirt junior as Florida is at left tackle likely isn’t a recipe for a dramatic falloff. Stone Forsythe has had plenty of time to mature physically (losing bad weight and building muscle in his case), so the Gators aren’t rolling the dice on a younger player who may or may not be ready yet."

I had to think about this article for a bit, but I am starting to agree with it.
https://www.gatorcountry.com/featur...e-might-not-be-as-big-a-concern-as-you-think/

I eyeballed that O line returning starts one time and there was definitely some correlation with big drops and big gains with that - at least with the better teams I looked at. I think the same place showed where they predicted UFs offense to improve quite a bit due to that number going into 2018.

 

[gatorbuilderorlando]

I think our top 6-7 guys will be more than fine...better than last year when comparing the months they perform in. So compare Aug to Aug, etc.

Injuries could change this in a big way though.