With Florida and Tennessee making the final and Houston & Duke clinching both Regular Season and Conference Tourney titles - the picture has become clearer. Also after listening to Andy Katz's interview with Dave Gavitt earlier today - I believe the following
The 4 #1 seeds have already been decided - with Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida in those positions. As you've listened during the Gators telecast and throughout other programming - there's already a cemented narrative - fair/unfair that the first 3 teams were already set and the final 4th #1 would be winner of the SEC tourney (or opposite Auburn if they won). So the question becomes - in what situation would Tennessee (the last remaining team with a chance to knockout Florida from the #1 perch)... {Look for those that say Auburn should be below Florida - the eye test - especially recently would agree, however the Q1 difference due to non-conference, combined with political preseason expectations and hype - the committee will defer to name recognition - Pearl over Golden).
So comparing Florida and Tennessee before tomorrow's game
Florida - 10-4 Q1, 9-0 Q2; Net #4, 7-3 on road, 7-0 Neutral, 4-1 vs Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee w/ Bama/Auburn both on road and Bama neutral and splitting TN w/home team winning each
Tennessee - 11-6 Q1, 5-0Q2; Net #6, 6-5 on road, 5-0 Neutral; 3-2 vs Auburn, Bama & Florida - with splits with Auburn and Florida and the infamous half court buzzer beater at home against Bama
I think for this reason - the committee will virtually lock Florida as a 1 seed as long as they don't lose by 20 tomorrow.
Now that we got the 4 #1 seeds identified, lets rank them. If it was solely by eye test - they would go Florida, Houston, Duke and Auburn... however they will factor the entire season and conference titles. Based on this, I believe they will go the easy way and rank them based on the media group think
1. Auburn 2. Duke 3. Houston and 4. Florida.
Auburn will choose Lexington and the South (Atlanta)
Duke will choose Raleigh and the East (Newark)
Houston will choose Wichita and the West (SF) * they've already communicated West over Midwest
Florida will choose Raleigh and be assigned to the Midwest (Indy)
The #2 seeds are easy to identify as well - Bama, Tenn, Michigan St and St. John's (replacing Texas Tech)
Assigning regions should also be straighforward. - Bama and Tenn opposite Houston and Duke with Bama being shipped to SF and starting in Cleveland. Tennessee will start in Lexington and join Duke in Newark. For Michigan St and St. John's - Michigan St has higher priority and will be paired with Florida and the Johnnies will start in Providence and head to Atlanta
The #3 seeds are where things start to get interesting due to conference matchups. Teams in the #3 seed area include Texas Tech, Iowa St, Wisconsin, Texas A&M and Arizona. With Arizona having the weakest metrics of the 5 - they would drop out to a 4 seed.
4 seeds - Maryland, Michigan, Arizona and Kentucky. I believe Kentucky over Missouri based on conference record, better non-conf and HH.
So here's how they are allocated:
South - Atlanta
1. Auburn
2. St. John's
3. Texas A&M
4. Arizona
East - Newark
1. Duke
2. Tennessee
3. Wisconsin
4. Kentucky
Midwest - Indy
1. Florida
2. Michigan St
3. Iowa St
4. Maryland
West - SF
1. Houston
2. Alabama
3. Texas Tech
4. Michigan
Another prediction is that Ian Eagle and Bill Raftery will be calling the first 2 games in Raleigh and then having Kevin Harlan and SVG calling the Regional Matchup in Indy
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The 4 #1 seeds have already been decided - with Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida in those positions. As you've listened during the Gators telecast and throughout other programming - there's already a cemented narrative - fair/unfair that the first 3 teams were already set and the final 4th #1 would be winner of the SEC tourney (or opposite Auburn if they won). So the question becomes - in what situation would Tennessee (the last remaining team with a chance to knockout Florida from the #1 perch)... {Look for those that say Auburn should be below Florida - the eye test - especially recently would agree, however the Q1 difference due to non-conference, combined with political preseason expectations and hype - the committee will defer to name recognition - Pearl over Golden).
So comparing Florida and Tennessee before tomorrow's game
Florida - 10-4 Q1, 9-0 Q2; Net #4, 7-3 on road, 7-0 Neutral, 4-1 vs Auburn, Alabama, Tennessee w/ Bama/Auburn both on road and Bama neutral and splitting TN w/home team winning each
Tennessee - 11-6 Q1, 5-0Q2; Net #6, 6-5 on road, 5-0 Neutral; 3-2 vs Auburn, Bama & Florida - with splits with Auburn and Florida and the infamous half court buzzer beater at home against Bama
I think for this reason - the committee will virtually lock Florida as a 1 seed as long as they don't lose by 20 tomorrow.
| Rank | Previous | School | Conference | Record | Road | Neutral | WAB | Quad 1 | Quad 2 | Quad 3 | Quad 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Duke | ACC | 30-3 | 10-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 8-3 | 7-0 | 10-0 | 5-0 |
| 2 | 2 | Auburn | SEC | 28-4 | 8-2 | 7-0 | 1 | 16-4 | 6-0 | 2-0 | 4-0 |
| 3 | 3 | Houston | Big 12 | 29-4 | 10-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 12-3 | 7-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| 4 | 4 | Florida | SEC | 28-4 | 7-3 | 6-0 | 4 | 9-4 | 9-0 | 4-0 | 6-0 |
| 5 | 6 | Alabama | SEC | 25-7 | 9-3 | 4-1 | 2 | 11-7 | 8-0 | 4-0 | 2-0 |
| 6 | 5 | Tennessee | SEC | 26-6 | 6-5 | 4-0 | 5 | 10-6 | 5-0 | 5-0 | 6-0 |
Now that we got the 4 #1 seeds identified, lets rank them. If it was solely by eye test - they would go Florida, Houston, Duke and Auburn... however they will factor the entire season and conference titles. Based on this, I believe they will go the easy way and rank them based on the media group think
1. Auburn 2. Duke 3. Houston and 4. Florida.
Auburn will choose Lexington and the South (Atlanta)
Duke will choose Raleigh and the East (Newark)
Houston will choose Wichita and the West (SF) * they've already communicated West over Midwest
Florida will choose Raleigh and be assigned to the Midwest (Indy)
The #2 seeds are easy to identify as well - Bama, Tenn, Michigan St and St. John's (replacing Texas Tech)
Assigning regions should also be straighforward. - Bama and Tenn opposite Houston and Duke with Bama being shipped to SF and starting in Cleveland. Tennessee will start in Lexington and join Duke in Newark. For Michigan St and St. John's - Michigan St has higher priority and will be paired with Florida and the Johnnies will start in Providence and head to Atlanta
The #3 seeds are where things start to get interesting due to conference matchups. Teams in the #3 seed area include Texas Tech, Iowa St, Wisconsin, Texas A&M and Arizona. With Arizona having the weakest metrics of the 5 - they would drop out to a 4 seed.
4 seeds - Maryland, Michigan, Arizona and Kentucky. I believe Kentucky over Missouri based on conference record, better non-conf and HH.
So here's how they are allocated:
South - Atlanta
1. Auburn
2. St. John's
3. Texas A&M
4. Arizona
East - Newark
1. Duke
2. Tennessee
3. Wisconsin
4. Kentucky
Midwest - Indy
1. Florida
2. Michigan St
3. Iowa St
4. Maryland
West - SF
1. Houston
2. Alabama
3. Texas Tech
4. Michigan
Another prediction is that Ian Eagle and Bill Raftery will be calling the first 2 games in Raleigh and then having Kevin Harlan and SVG calling the Regional Matchup in Indy
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